There's absolutely no way that ends up on a bulletin board somewhere
Penn St Recap: Pitchfork not included
We are getting worse and that nice September we had isn’t as nice as it used to look.
We’ll ease in to the pain and start with the offense.
The Bad
After three of the first four FBS games produced stratospheric results, real Big Ten play, even after being opponent adjusted as it is here, the offensive performance has come back to earth. This is not the same as being bad, this is still a very good offense. In fact, the +5 average over the last three games would still be good enough to rank in the top 25, it’s just not good enough to bail our defense out like it did early.
After three great games through the air in his first four, Denard has regressed as a passer. His last three games have been slightly above +0 after averaging nearly +10 against UConn and Indiana.
Michigan is still ranked #2 nationally in rushing and #3 overall, in Points Above Normal but the game scores are coming down.
The Bad and The Ugly
This chart is not upside, it just shows no need to display positive numbers. Last year’s defense was bad, this year’s is terrible. Last year’s defense didn’t make it down to –2 on the season, this year is worse than –7. We are 113th after adjusting for opponents and the only BCS conference school worse is Washington St.
The “good” news is that next week shouldn’t be too bad. The defense has alternated between worst game of the season and slightly below average for every week this year.
If the season were to end today, Michigan’s gap between offensive success and defensive failure would be the largest I have recorded in 8 full seasons on file.
Projections
Not nearly as fun as they used to be.
Illinois: 34% chance of victory
@Purdue: 65% chance of victory
Wisconsin: 38% chance of victory
@Ohio St: 12% chance of victory
Home field is factored in. The season win projection is now at 6.5.
Ballot
Still trying to turn my system, which is more like a power ranking into something more similar but definitely not identical to a traditional poll setup. For now I have settled on ranking teams first by number of losses and secondarily by power rating and then making one off adjustments to account for teams that are rated lower but have beaten a team with a identical losses.
| Rank | Team | PAN |
| 1 | Auburn | 22.8 |
| 2 | Boise St | 18.6 |
| 3 | TCU | 17.0 |
| 4 | Oregon | 14.4 |
| 5 | Utah | 10.9 |
| 6 | Nebraska | 23.0 |
| 7 | Alabama | 15.9 |
| 8 | Arkansas | 19.2 |
| 9 | Oklahoma St | 18.4 |
| 10 | Stanford | 18.1 |
| 11 | Missouri | 17.7 |
| 12 | Oklahoma | 17.8 |
| 13 | Wisconsin | 11.6 |
| 14 | Ohio St | 14.3 |
| 15 | Michigan St | 14.1 |
| 16 | LSU | 13.4 |
| 17 | Arizona | 10.5 |
| 18 | Nevada | 5.0 |
| 19 | Iowa | 18.7 |
| 20 | S Carolina | 16.9 |
| 21 | Virginia Tech | 16.3 |
| 22 | Hawaii | 14.4 |
| 23 | Mississippi St | 12.8 |
| 24 | NC St | 9.2 |
| 25 | Baylor | 7.2 |
Teams of note:
- Oregon: my numbers still aren’t sold on their defense and strength of schedule.
- Nebraska: might have the most dangerous offense/defense combination in football
- Alabama: the numbers don’t see last year and think there are a lot of better 1 loss teams than the Tide
- Wisconsin: hurt by three lackluster non-conference wins against underachieving opponents, propped up by their win against OSU
November 1st, 2010 at 4:16 PM | 
I love that your numbers
I love that your numbers
November 1st, 2010 at 4:27 PM |
Defense chart
Defense chart
That just hurts the soul. And we thought it couldn't get worse than last year...Jeez.
November 1st, 2010 at 4:36 PM |
Interesting
Interesting
that by these numbers we have a better chance of beating Wisconsin than Illinois.
"Better to have died as a small boy than to fumble this football" -- John Heisman
November 1st, 2010 at 4:44 PM |
Well, they both lost to MSU
Well, they both lost to MSU
Well, they both lost to MSU and Illinois had to go to OSU while Wisconsin got to play them at home. You also consider that they didn't get blown out by Missouri and the numbers are probably going to lean in favor of Illinois.
November 1st, 2010 at 5:20 PM |
Not getting worse
Not getting worse
We are bad at D. We were always bad at D...Unless you mean Mike Martin getting hurt, which sucks, but you have to expect injuries. I think other teams might be improving their offenses as the season progresses, while ours (due to injury and position changes) is still trying to get off the starting block.
The early season offense seemed too good to be true, and it was.
To your system's credit, the early season numbers, which looked ridiculous (80% chance of beating Wisc??), are now coming around and looking far more reasonable. 6.5 was my preseason expectation. This seems, intuitvely, spot on.
Interesting that your system likes our chances against Wisc at least as much as Illinois.
November 1st, 2010 at 5:39 PM |
If Nebraska's receivers
If Nebraska's receivers
If Nebraska's receivers hadn't had a bizarre case of the drops against Texas, I think they'd be in the top 2 right now in the polls. It wasn't as bizarre as their insane game against Iowa State last year, but it wasn't that far off.
November 1st, 2010 at 7:19 PM |
Terrifying
Terrifying
WTF, WTF, WTF! Now we are counting on the statistical theory of alternating suckiness??
F me. F us, F the world!
PS -- no, I am not enjoying life.
Life should not be a journey to the grave to arrive safely in a pretty and well preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside in a cloud of smoke, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming "Wow! What A Ride!" HST
November 1st, 2010 at 8:19 PM |
It seems
It seems
It seems like every chart and prediction in the diaries have been wrong. Just watch the games and hope for the best.
Go Blue!
November 1st, 2010 at 8:28 PM |
Offense under pressure
Offense under pressure
It would be interesting to see a stat breakdown of the offensive performance after a punt vs after a kick-off return. There is the yardage issue which seems immense as the KO returns are inept at best (at least fewer fumbles). Does the offense operate looser after a returened punt? The pressure on the offense seems immense as they need to score every time they touch the ball.
Brian CK
November 1st, 2010 at 11:19 PM |
Performance Comparison
Performance Comparison
It is interesting that the only game of the last three where the O scores high is the one game played primarily by Tate Forcier. I would still rather have a passing QB who can run than a running QB who can pass, and for the last 3 games, Denard has looked like a running QB who can sort of pass, particularly in the first half.
In the morning he would read the Bible with another coach. Then, in the afternoon, he would go out and cheat kids who had probably saved up money from mowing lawns to buy those raffle tickets. That's Jim Tressel.
November 1st, 2010 at 11:19 PM |
Performance Comparison
Performance Comparison
It is interesting that the only game of the last three where the O scores high is the one game played primarily by Tate Forcier. I would still rather have a passing QB who can run than a running QB who can pass, and for the last 3 games, Denard has looked like a running QB who can sort of pass, particularly in the first half.
In the morning he would read the Bible with another coach. Then, in the afternoon, he would go out and cheat kids who had probably saved up money from mowing lawns to buy those raffle tickets. That's Jim Tressel.
November 1st, 2010 at 11:20 PM |
Performance Comparison
Performance Comparison
It is interesting that the only game of the last three where the offense showed a strong score is the one game played primarily by Tate Forcier. I would still rather have a passing QB who can run than a running QB who can pass, and for the last 3 games, Denard has looked like a running QB who can sort of pass, particularly in the first half.
In the morning he would read the Bible with another coach. Then, in the afternoon, he would go out and cheat kids who had probably saved up money from mowing lawns to buy those raffle tickets. That's Jim Tressel.
November 2nd, 2010 at 11:49 AM |
that's amazing.
that's amazing.
the defensive chart matches exactly the mood of my girlfriend in a given three-month span.
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"I cannot think of a better person to guide our university's athletic strategy than the inventor of The Noid."
November 2nd, 2010 at 12:13 PM |
those charts
those charts
also track how my man parts react when I am watching the O and D
Ann Arbor is a nice girl, it's Mary Markley who's a whore
November 2nd, 2010 at 12:23 PM |
I
I
I look forward to the Big 12 Title Game where I can hopefully bet big on Nebraska to win over the Sooners.
November 2nd, 2010 at 4:59 PM |
Mathlete: can you construct a
Mathlete: can you construct a
Mathlete: can you construct a PAN ranking just based on conference games? I'd like to see how Michigan compares to other Big Ten teams when non-conference opponents are filtered out.
I love that your numbers always reflect my mood and feeling about the team. Illinois and Wisconsin look winnable if we play a perfect game and only because we are at home. Purdue is horrific. If we don't beat them, I think he can kiss any support he has left goodbye. OSU just isn't a winnable game this year. It never has been and even if we win the next 3, that game still won't look winnable.
If we do end up beating Illinois, it would be nice to see the prediction jump to 7.8 or something like that because Wisconsin starts to look like a better matchup too.
My Ideal Offense: Part I