We are getting worse and that nice September we had isn’t as nice as it used to look.
We’ll ease in to the pain and start with the offense.
After three of the first four FBS games produced stratospheric results, real Big Ten play, even after being opponent adjusted as it is here, the offensive performance has come back to earth. This is not the same as being bad, this is still a very good offense. In fact, the +5 average over the last three games would still be good enough to rank in the top 25, it’s just not good enough to bail our defense out like it did early.
After three great games through the air in his first four, Denard has regressed as a passer. His last three games have been slightly above +0 after averaging nearly +10 against UConn and Indiana.
Michigan is still ranked #2 nationally in rushing and #3 overall, in Points Above Normal but the game scores are coming down.
The Bad and The Ugly
This chart is not upside, it just shows no need to display positive numbers. Last year’s defense was bad, this year’s is terrible. Last year’s defense didn’t make it down to –2 on the season, this year is worse than –7. We are 113th after adjusting for opponents and the only BCS conference school worse is Washington St.
The “good” news is that next week shouldn’t be too bad. The defense has alternated between worst game of the season and slightly below average for every week this year.
If the season were to end today, Michigan’s gap between offensive success and defensive failure would be the largest I have recorded in 8 full seasons on file.
Not nearly as fun as they used to be.
Illinois: 34% chance of victory
@Purdue: 65% chance of victory
Wisconsin: 38% chance of victory
@Ohio St: 12% chance of victory
Home field is factored in. The season win projection is now at 6.5.
Still trying to turn my system, which is more like a power ranking into something more similar but definitely not identical to a traditional poll setup. For now I have settled on ranking teams first by number of losses and secondarily by power rating and then making one off adjustments to account for teams that are rated lower but have beaten a team with a identical losses.
Teams of note:
- Oregon: my numbers still aren’t sold on their defense and strength of schedule.
- Nebraska: might have the most dangerous offense/defense combination in football
- Alabama: the numbers don’t see last year and think there are a lot of better 1 loss teams than the Tide
- Wisconsin: hurt by three lackluster non-conference wins against underachieving opponents, propped up by their win against OSU