Pairwise update
Right now, U-M sits 9th in the Pairwise (up from t-12th to start the day), tied with UNH and losing that tiebreaker, so effectively 10th. There are a lot of games left, and the Pairwise is notoriously shifty, so here's a look at the easiest path upward in the rankings.
Comparisions that M currently loses:
1. Yale: unflippable comparison
2. BC: Surprisingly flippable. The difference is the record against Teams Under Consideration (TUC). BC is 9-5-0 (64.3%), while M is 9-6-3(58.3%). There are two teams lurking just below the cutoff (LSSU and OSU) that would help us if they were bumped up. Coincidentally, they play each other next weekend. Looking at their schedules, I would guess that OSU will end up a TUC and LSSU will not, adding 3 wins and a loss to our TUC, for a winning percentage of 61.4%. If both make it, the percentage would be 64.6%. Both teams have two games left against current TUCs (BC vs. UNH, M vs. Western), as well as their conference tournaments, which might swing this entire comparison one way or the other.
3. North Dakota: unflippable comparison
4. Denver: Surprisingly flippable. Again, the difference is TUC record, and Denver's is very similar to BC's, with a current percentage of 64.6%. Their remaining games against TUCs are two at home to St. Cloud St. and two at UNO. St. Cloud is close enough to the cutoff, and have such a difficult remaining schedule, that they might drop under the cutoff, and UNO is a tough opponent at home. Denver will also have to negotiate a tough WCHA tournament field, so there is a good chance that their percentage will drop.
5. Merrimack: unflippable comparison. I know, right?
6. Minn.-Duluth: flippable. U-M would need to win both TUC record (currently ahead by a whisker) and record against common opponents (COp). The latter is currently fairly close, and will undergo changes in the next two weeks and both teams play opponents that also appeared on the other's schedule. UMD has two games at Colorado College and two at home against UNO, while we have two against Northern Michigan. Adding the games against those teams makes our current COp percentage 68.8%, compared to 75% for UMD. A sweep over Northern (theoretically) would bump our COp percentage to 75%, so UMD would have to win 3 out of those four games (or win two and tie two). This will probably come down to who does better in their conference tournament.
7. Neb.-Omaha: Flippable. They have a big lead at the moment in TUC, but have previously-referenced games against UMD and Denver, to go along with two at Alaska-Anchorage. The good news is that if we can't flip them, there is a good chance it's because they made it possible to flip either Denver or UMD.
8. New Hampshire: Flippable. We just have to pass them in RPI. So we have to win, and they have to...not. They have two road games at Vermont followed by home-and-homes with Northeastern and BC, then the Hockey East tournament. We would certainly need for them to take zero or one point from BC in that series, or a major slip-up against the others.
9. Notre Dame: Very flippable. The deciding factor right now is COp percentage, but both teams play conference opponents in the next two weeks that they have not yet played, but the other has. Once those games are factored in, the COp percentage is a tie. This one will simply come down to who has a better record down the stretch (or whoever wins if they face off at the Joe).
Upshot:
A strong finish should get us a 2 seed, which is where I think we'll end up. I think a couple of these comparisons will flip simply by virtue of teams beating each other. A 2-2 finish and a loss in the semis at the Joe would probably still get us a 3 seed, but we could drop to a 4. Of course, it is possible for a bad finish to knock us out totally, but it would take a massive implosion (like losing three of the next four, and not even making the semis at the Joe), and maybe having non-tournament teams win their conference tournaments. Failing that second step, we would have to drop to 16th to fall out, and there are really only 5 teams in range of passing us unless we lose out from here.
Who to root for/against:
Root for:
1. Michigan (duh)
2. OSU and LSSU
3. Sweeps in the Denver-UNO, UMD-UNO, BC-UNH series. If you want to pick teams in those series, pick UNO and UNH, because their comparisons are probably harder to flip.
Root against:
1. Michigan State. Not just because you hate them, but because you don't want them becoming a TUC. Hopefully they'll drop games in Alaska next weekend and it won't matter.
2. Notre Dame. Not just because you hate them, but becauseyou want to flip their comparison.
3. Anyone directly below us in the pairwise. Union, Dartmouth, RPI, Miami, Wisconsin.
4. St. Cloud State. If you have this much time to care about how St. Cloud State fares and how that affects Michigan, perhaps you should reevaluate your life. As should I.
February 13th, 2011 at 1:05 AM ^
Great writeup. I have a thread going as well, where I've been posting updated bracket predictions after each day of games (updated about an hour ago).
http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/michigan-hockey-and-pairwise-updated-throug…
February 13th, 2011 at 1:17 AM ^
But I know this: Shawn Hunwick is my hero.
That is all.
February 13th, 2011 at 1:36 AM ^
What sport is this?!! What are you saying? This is just gibberish to me.
February 13th, 2011 at 1:51 AM ^
When was the last time we talked about Michigan in the same breath with Alaska-Fairbanks, North Dakota, and Boston College? (Hint: ND is also involved.)
Hint #2: Check MGoBlue.com for news and further clues.
February 13th, 2011 at 8:50 AM ^
We could just throw the sport in the title. Hell nd and denver might be great at lax i dont know.
February 13th, 2011 at 12:06 PM ^
I don't really follow hockey that closely, but when I see "pairwise" I know what it's referring to.
February 14th, 2011 at 7:16 AM ^
"i dont know"
They are pretty good at lax actually, but that'd only be relevant if (and when) we were a D1 school in lacrosse. Any sort of googling or research at all would tell you it's hockey.
Do you need every single football thread to include "MFootball - ..." at the beginning? cmon maaaan
February 13th, 2011 at 12:11 PM ^
"pairwise" referred to either college hockey or TaTas.
February 13th, 2011 at 1:55 AM ^
Here are some post-game comments that Stephen J. Nesbitt just posted on Twitter.
Was at the game tonight, one heck of an ending!
Just hope ND crumbles next weekend. We can jump Miami, we have two games in hand on them.
February 13th, 2011 at 3:26 AM ^
Merrimack's RPI advantage is not quite insurmountable. However, we need help in the TUC or COp category. Should Merrimack play and lose to UNH in the HE tournament, the COp category will become a tie. And Merrimack has played only 11 games against TUCs, so their advantage there could easily fade with poor play in their series at Maine in two weeks. However, we cannot win the comparison unless we can achieve a superior RPI, so our chances of doing so are rather low.
Also, Bemidji State and Alaska-Anchorage could wreak havoc on the Pairwise. They both have an RPI around the fault line and both have had some level of success against some of the WCHA teams fighting for a tournament slot. Bemidji State, for instance, has a 3-0-1 record against UNO, which brings the TUC record into play in that comparison. Alaska-Anchorage, meanwhile, has been decent against teams like Wisconsin and Minnesota, although they are definitely helping the WCHA teams above us, so we probably want them to lose.
February 13th, 2011 at 10:35 AM ^
I wish Rittenberg covered College Hockey so he could tell me who to root for every weekend. Until that happens, m_fan_in_ohio, Brian and USCHO do a great job letting me know how we're doing.
Thanks for the explanation of pairwise - somehow everytime I look at it, I have to relearn what it means.
February 13th, 2011 at 1:27 PM ^
Let me get back to drinking. !
February 13th, 2011 at 3:35 PM ^
I've been doing updated brackets after each night of games, which is on the boards somewhere and thought it might be better to get similar topics in the same place.
Updated through 2/12 games (ties broken by RPI).
----------------------------
1. Yale (EC) - 29
2. Boston College (HE) - 27
3. North Dakota (WC) - 25
4. Denver (WC) - 24
5. Merrimack (HE) - 24
6. Minnesota-Duluth (WC) - 22
7. Union (EC) - 20
8. Nebraska-Omaha (WC) - 20
9. New Hampshire (HE) - 29
10. Michigan (CC) - 19
11. Miami (CC) - 19
12. Notre Dame (CC) - 18
13. Dartmouth (EC) - 18
14. Rensselaer (EC) - 17
15. Wisconsin (WC) - 15
16. Atlantic Hockey Champ (AH)
----------------------------
Bridgeport:
1. Yale (EC)
5. Merrimack (HE)
10. Michigan (CC)
16. Atlantic Hockey Champ (AH)
Manchester:
2. Boston College (HE)
7. Union (EC)
9. New Hampshire (HE)
15. Wisconsin (WC)
St. Louis:
3. North Dakota (WC)
8. Nebraska-Omaha (WC)
11. Miami (CC)
14. Rensselaer (EC)
Green Bay:
4. Denver (WC)
6. Minnesota-Duluth (WC)
12. Notre Dame (CC)
13. Dartmouth (EC)
----------------------------
1 seeds: #1 Yale to Bridgeport (host), #2 BC to Manchester, #3 North Dakota to St. Louis, #4 Denver to Green Bay.
2 seeds: #6 Minnesota-Duluth to Green Bay (within 400 mile limit to bus), #8 Nebraska-Omaha to St. Louis (attendance purposes), #7 Union to Manchester, #5 Merrimack to Bridgeport.
3 seeds: #12 Notre Dame to Green Bay (within 400 mile limit to bus), #11 Miami to St. Louis (within 400 mile limit to bus), #9 New Hampshire to Manchester (host), #10 Michigan to Bridgeport (nowhere else)
4 seeds: #13 Dartmouth to Green Bay, #14 Rensselaer to St. Louis, #15 Wisconsin to Manchester (can't send out west due to having WCHA teams as #1 seeds in both regions), #16 Atlantic Hockey champ* to Bridgeport. All these keep 1-16, 2-15, 3-14, 4-13 matchups.
*If AHA champ is Air Force, send them to St. Louis, Wisconsin to Bridgeport, and Rensselaer to Manchester.
February 13th, 2011 at 8:36 PM ^
The NCAA isn't obligated to break ties with RPI. As such, it wouldn't be surprising if they gave Merrimack the 1-seed for conveniences sake, which would allow for the following bracket:
Bridgeport
1. Yale (ECAC)*
16. RIT (Proj. AH Champ)*
7. Union (ECAC)*
10. Michigan (CCHA)
Green Bay
2. Boston College (HE)
15. Wisconsin (WCHA)*
6. Minnesota-Duluth (WCHA)*
12. Notre Dame (CCHA)*
St. Louis
3. North Dakota (WCHA)
14. Renssalaer (ECAC)
8. Nebraska-Omaha (WCHA)*
11. Miami (CCHA)*
Manchester
4. Merrimack (HE)*
13. Dartmouth (ECAC)*
5. Denver (WCHA)
9. New Hampshire (HE)*
*Denotes team within 400 miles of regional.
By making Merrimack a 1-seed, the NCAA can improve attendance in two regionals without adversely affecting the others by placing a bunch of nearby teams in Manchester (Merrimack is actually closer to Manchester than host New Hampshire), placing Wisconsin in Green Bay, and placing Union in Bridgeport to replace Merrimack. Alternatively, the NCAA could be nicer to BC fans by flipping them with Merrimack, although I'd imagine they'd be willing to deal with flying if it means avoiding the winner of DU-UNH. At any rate, even with that change, we still get Wisconsin in Green Bay, which would ensure fans would actually show up there. This also has the happy effect of keeping more teams close to home.
EDIT: Accidentally listed Michigan as a WCHA team
February 14th, 2011 at 12:41 AM ^
UNO winning really helps, not only in the RPI because UM played them twice but also it helps in the COP against other wcha teams, not sure if it's have much of an impact now, but maybe in a couple of weeks.
I think UNH's RPI could really take a hit the next three weeks, looking at their schedule, they have four on the road and play sub-500 teams in Vermont and Northeastern along with a home vs. BC. So if they finish 3-3, and UM finishes say 3-1 or even 2-1-1, they should pass UNH in the RPI and get that pwc.
February 14th, 2011 at 5:38 PM ^
We also want Notre Dame to lose just to open the door for us to slide into first and win the CCHA regular season. We may not have the horses to take the National Championship this season, but let's hang a banner of some kind! Sweep Western baby!
February 15th, 2011 at 12:08 AM ^
The NCAA tourney is an open playing field with it's single-elimination format. Pretty much anyone who makes the tournament has a legitimate shot at it.
Here's the distribution of how many times a 1, 2, 3, and 4 seed has made the Frozen 4, the national championship game, and won the actual championship since 2003:
Frozen Four
1-seed: 15*
2-seed: 6
3-seed: 7
4-seed: 4
NC Game
1-seed: 8*
2-seed: 4
3-seed: 2
4-seed: 2
National Champion
1-seed: 5**
2-seed: 2
3-seed: 1
4-seed: 0***
*One of these 1-seeds was Miami last year, who shouldn't have advanced at all. Yes, I am still bitter.
**This number is perhaps bolstered because two of these 1-seeds to win the Frozen Four have also had the advantage of hosting the Frozen Four, namely Minnesota in 2003 and Wisconsin in 2006. Another 1-seed, Boston College, got to play in Boston in 2004, but they fell to fellow 1-seed Maine in the National Semifinal. Maine went on to lose to Denver in the final.
***In the 2009 championship game, Miami, a 4-seed, blew a 2-goal lead in the last minute of the 3rd period to BU and lost in OT.
While 1-seeds have clearly outperformed the 2, 3, and 4 seeds, it should be noted that it is not that unusual for a lower seeded team to have a hot run and be successful.
Also, with the elimination of the CHA this year, we figure to see their spot go to another decent team as a 4-seed. Although it should be noted that Bemidji State rose to greater prominence in the latter years of the CHA. At any rate, this will likely lead to more 4-seed over 1-seed upsets.
February 15th, 2011 at 9:21 AM ^
The new lines looked good this past weekend! I thought we played with alot more intensity, we were flyin around, just didnt put the puck in the net as much as we would all have liked. WMU tied ND and lost to ND, so we gained a point there, but WMU has been playing damn good hockey. At one point they hadnt lost in 11 games, I dont know where that stands now, but they are a team that we cant take lightly, and I also think this weekend will give us a good test! GO BLUE!
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