The Over/Under for Rich Rodriguez

Submitted by oakapple on

Among the commentariat, there is fairly widespread agreement that Rich Rodriguez is sitting on the hottest of hotseats among college football coaches. The only disagreement among them, is just how well he needs to do, to be assured of returning in 2011. The consensus is that he needs to win 8 or 9 games.

Dave Brandon has said that there is no absolute litmus test. I think we can assume that Rodriguez is almost surely fired if the team wins five games or less, and he almost surely returns if it wins eight games or more—that is, assuming no more NCAA violations. The gray area is six or seven regular-season wins.

In setting the bar at eight games, we are aiming rather low, by historical standards. In the thirty-nine seasons that Michigan was coached by Bo Schembechler and his assistants, the team won fewer than eight regular-season games in just five seasons (84, 87, 93, 94, 05). And it should be noted that  Bo, Moeller and Carr had fewer games in which to do it, as their teams played only ten regular-season games in the first two years of Bo's tenure, and then eleven through 2005.

Still, there is only so much improvement that one can reasonably expect from one year to the next. Rodriguez's first two seasons are sunk costs, and if he can show a gain of +3 from 2009 to 2010, it is hard to argue that that is not good enough.

Another benchmark is that, in thirty-nine seasons, Bo and his former assistants never posted a losing record within the conference. The closest they came was in 1984, when Bo went 5-4 (they played a full round-robin in those days), on the way to a 6-5 regular-season finish, folllowed by a loss in the Holiday Bowl to the national champions, Brigham Young. That, by the way, was the closest Michigan ever came to a losing season in the Bo/Mo/Lloyd era.

One crucial point is that it is impossible to go 8-4 without at least playing .500 ball within the conference. With Michigan's talent advantage, the Wolverines should beat Indiana, Michigan State, Illinois, and Purdue, practically every time. I do realize even the best teams sometimes lose when they shouldn't, but the Wolverines are staring in the face of two-game losing streaks to three of those schools, and they very nearly lost to Indiana last year. If Michigan loses this year to more than one of these opponents, you would have to conclude that Rodriguez is getting consistently out-coached. It is also worth noting that Rodriguez has just one road victory in two years (Minnesota in 2008), and it is hard to see him surviving past 2010 if he does not start winning outside of Ann Arbor.

With a 6-6 or 7-5 regular-season record, Dave Brandon would have a tough decision. Objectively, there is no sugar-coating a 7-5 season that could very easily include losses to the likes of Ohio State, Wisconsin, Penn State, Iowa, and Notre Dame (those being the toughest games on the schedule). No one will say Michigan is back when it is losing to these teams, or to most of them.

Yet, firing Rodriguez would almost certainly usher in another year or two of transition, a sub-par 2011 recruiting class, and yet another coach who arrives to find a roster not built for the system he wants to run. (The probability of Brandon hiring another spread offense guy is slim to none.) In addition, it would also mean missing a bowl for the third consecutive year, since fired coaches seldom stay on to coach a bowl. For these reasons, as disappointing as a 7-5 campaign would be, Brandon will swallow hard and give Rodriguez one more shot in 2011.

It is too soon now to set the bar for 2011, but I would note that after next season Rodriguez must either be fired or given a contract extension. He is under contract through the end of 2013, but he would need to be extended well before then, as otherwise it would be tough to recruit (kids want to know they're coming to a stable program).

That leaves us with the question of what to do if Rodriguez goes 6-6. Many of the arguments for retaining Rodriguez after 7-5 apply with equal force. But in all honesty, I do not think you can accept 3-9 and 5-7, followed by 6-6, as adequate progress. It is practically impossible to write a 6-6 script that you could find acceptable, unless it involves beating Ohio State.

(I suppose I should note explicitly that the bowl outcome, if Michigan goes to one, is irrelevant to Rich Rodriguez's job security. Coaches are hardly ever fired after losing a bowl, because there is too little time to hire a replacement before national signing day.)

Two games loom large on the schedule: UConn and Michigan State. UConn is another one of those teams that "Michigan should beat" almost every time. Their roster is composed almost entirely of kids that were rated two stars or less when they were recruited. Star ratings don't win games, but when the talent disparity is as wide as it is here, there simply is no good excuse for losing to these guys. I am not saying it cannot happen, only that it is not excusable. What is more, with a trip to South Bend looming in Week Two, UConn is a win Rodriguez has to have.

The Michigan State game is important for two reasons. One is that it's a major rivalry in which Michigan has lost two straight. But even more important, it is hard to imagine how Michigan wins at least four Big Ten games, if MSU isn't one of them, particularly as the game is in Ann Arbor.

Obviously, there are ten other games to worry about, but in the likeliest scenarios that involve Rich Rodriguez keeping his job, wins over UConn and MSU are part of the picture.

In short, I think Rodriguez is: 1) surely retained for 2011 if he goes 8-4 or better; 2) surely fired if he goes 5-7 or worse; 3) likely retained if he goes 7-5; 4) likely fired if he goes 6-6. If Brandon is on the fence, the factors I think he will look at include:

  1. Beating the guys he's supposed to beat, particularly MSU
  2. Going at least .500 in conference play
  3. Getting at least one signature win in the conference

Comments

TennesseeBlue

August 29th, 2010 at 8:27 AM ^

Let's get the obvious out of the way ... RichRod has to have a winning season. No coach at a mildly successful school can withstand 3 straight losing seasons. 

That said, I'd be willing to accept a minimal winning season, if what we see is a marked improvement in the playing of big-time college football. It's going to be a tough season - we know that. The vast majority of the teams we play will not hand us a victory; they're going to take more than zippy ninjas to beat. We have to play good football. 

It's clear when a team is playing well - and we haven't for the last two years ... it often looked like we didn't deserve to be on the field. I think that, if we are able to tell a marked improvement in things like tackling, pace of the game, turnover ratio, broader open playbook, always being "in" the game - if all of those things are clear (And we just don't lose more than we win!) I'll say that I'm willing to hold on for one more year. If fundamentals improve, I can give one more year of support. 

Personally, though, I'm hoping for 8 - and I think it's very reasonable to say that if the Michigan Football Hating Gods let us catch a few breaks, and we just hang in the games, and play better fundamental football ... I think we'll be fine. 

Even then, though, if in year 4 we are not seeing a top shelf product on the field, I'll join the opposition against the coach. 

U Fer M

August 29th, 2010 at 10:32 AM ^

Hold on to the d@mn ball, offense be fast and high scoring like it looks like they will, and defense be reasonably improved from last year, maybe a few less big plays from very inferior opponents. Goooo Blueee!!!

NJWolverine

August 29th, 2010 at 10:54 AM ^

If there's anything worse than losing, it's becoming part of the mob.  Firing a coach after just three seasons places us squarely with SEC teams and less with our past.  I admit, a lot has gone wrong in just two seasons.  But what compels me about Rodriguez is the spread.  Like it or not, it's the wave of the future.  Even NFL teams are opening up more.  We need to be at the forefront of that change. 

Brandon has already dismissed the idea of judging a coach based solely on wins and losses.  It will be a multitude of factors.  We do not have a tradition of just firing coaches.  Amaker was given 6 years, a full recruiting class plus a 2 year mulligan because of the probation.  Ideally, Rodriguez should get 4 years so he use a full recruiting class.  I would extend that to 5 because Michigan knew exactly what they were getting when they hired Rodriguez, a guy who was going to radically change the offense.  The onus is not on Rodriguez to adapt and use statutes like Mallet.  He is entitled to use his system;  otherwise, why would he be hired?  So I think he should be given an extra mulligan year for not having his players on offense.  Unless Rodriguez has totally lost control of the team, I doubt he goes below .500 and even if he did, if we see progress he shouldn't be fired. 

Another problem is finding a successor.  The last thing you want is to panic and make more mistakes with coaching.  Look at ND.  Look at Nebraska before Pelini.  We're talking 20 years and 10 years, respectively.  There aren't any slam dunk coaches out there.  Michigan would have to forgive Harbaugh.  Plus, I'm not sold on Harbaugh just because he had some decent seasons at Stanford and a couple of USC victories under his belt.  He has yet to lead his team to a BCS game.  He hasn't been a coach for very long and was in DII for a while.  He may be happy to be in his hometown and not want to leave.  Remember the last coach with moderate success at Stanford who was hired at a big time program?  Ty Willingham.  There are just too many question marks.  If not Harbaugh, then who?  Would you give Greg Schiano another chance after he had second thoughts the first time around after rejecting the job?  Here again you have another coach who has failed to reach a BCS game (in the Big East no less).  Would you be able to handle Les Miles' antics?  Judged against these options, you really need to be very careful with expectations this season.  We have the founder of the spread, someone who took a team with limited talent to BCS games and someone with a long coaching record.  Again, unless there's a loss of control, we will see at least some improvement this year.  And as long as that happens, I think he'll still be around when all is said and done. 

The FannMan

August 29th, 2010 at 11:53 AM ^

Before I make my point, let me say that I will be rooting for a successful season and RR righting the ship.  My biggest fear of this year is that RR gets fired, everybody transfers and we have another 3-4 years of rebuilding.  At that point, who knows when (or even if) we ever get back to Michigan football as we knew it.  (In other words, I am not trying to start an anti-RR flame war here.)

With that said, the interestfing thing about Brandon's comment concerning "other criteria" is that it has two sides to it.  Most have looked at it from the side of what happens if RR only wins five or six and have concluded that there are criteria that can make up for it and keep him around.  However, there is also another angle.  Even if we win 8 or more games, Brandon's comment leaves room for him to make a decision based on other negative criteria, for example a NCAA finding that RR promoted a culture of non-compliance.  This leves Brandon holdng all of the cards and properly holds RR to a high level both on and off the filed.  (Of course, it is harder to get rid of winning coach than one who wins 3 or 4 games a year.) 

My point here is that it is wrong to think that over/under on wins in either direction means Rich Rod stays as coach.

Michigan football

August 29th, 2010 at 6:28 PM ^

RR needs to field a team, a team that is winning period! Everyone continues to analyze the same stuff over and over. Two losing season have past, another losing season is not what we want. IF YOU'RE ROOTING FOR RR TO BE FIRED, GO AWAY! To look for that, is to wish for defeat, and we don't associate Michigan football with defeat. " LEADERS AND BEST" remember?

This is a winning program, that took winning for granted. Now it has had some adversity, and it's clear there are some Michigan fans who really are just fans (fare weather). Some players who played for themselves, and not the team (practice allogations) another issue.

Granted RR has some issues, but we all do. Think about this, when Michigan was 4-0 just last year, no one was talking about RR being fired. No one!  Then the bottom fell out, and those who have their own agenda started putting their plan together. For RR I hope for the best, for the program I hope for the best. Just remember...

In adversity only the strong will survive (and no I was never a RR fan)! GO BLUE!

Amaizeing-E

August 29th, 2010 at 6:59 PM ^

we will have a winning season this year thats certain...but whats not clear is how many games exactly we will win....and for those out there who are asking for RR's head to roll because he has yet to provide the success we are used to than you need to start rooting for a different team because its clear your not a UM fan and you no nothing about college football....people need to understand that it can take up to 5 years to build a football program... im happy with the fact that we hired a coach like RR because he coaches to win this guy loves to run the score and put it on his rivals....people you need to stop listening to the media especially KIRK HERBSTREIT and that clown LOU HOLTZ....GO BLUE!!

nmajali

August 30th, 2010 at 7:04 PM ^

Ok, very valid points about rich's chances, I will have to note the following though:

1- beating OSU and going 6-6 is a good way to keep the coaching job.
2- the talent pool Michigan has this season on defense is pretty bad and Michigan has to compensate with offense, luck and hard work on D.
3- if Michigan goes 6-6 with no signature win, it would still be a much better bet to keep rich instead of sending him packing. Michigan will still need more than 2 years to recover from another coach change and rich's recruits will come of age is 2011 where Michigan should start having a significant upper class, it is the looked up to year. Kicking rich off the team even if we have only 5 or 4 wins this season is still not the smart rational move but only the emotionally right one. Rebuilding will kill our recruiting like crazy, we're in too deep, might as well go all in!
4 NCAA sanctions are a major part of the equation.
5 when u throw so many young kids in the mix you will have a couple of surprises, who knows, cornerback might in a very weird way turn out to be a semi solid position this season, I know I'm optimistic, but honestly, u never know, it's Michigan and it's college football, miracles happen.
6 I hope and pray that michigan wis 7 or 8 and has 2 signature wins MSU and OSU. It's never bad to be hopeful... Go BLUE