Is our O-Line really that young?
I am going through the seven stages of grief after DEBACLE (not that DEBACLE). I am somewhere between the stage three and four and trying real hard to make sense of it all.
One of the common excuse for our poor performance has been that our offensive line is so young that we should have expected (historically) bad performance out of them.
But is our offensive line REALLY that young? I have yet to see anyone quantify exactly how young our offensive line is compared to other top programs. So, I figured I'd do it myself, thinking that it will help me through my grieving process...
It just ended up making it worse.
I looked at the offensive line depth (from Rival) of every team in AP Top 25 and noted how young/old they are. I then assigned point values - one for frosh, 1.5 for redshirt frosh, 2 for sophomore, 2.5 for redshirt sophomore, and so on. Using this method, Michigan boasts an average line experience of 2.8. How does that compare to other schools?
Here is the complete list of Top 25 schools with 3 or less experience value.
Team | Position | Name | Year | Value | Average Exp |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Michigan | OT | Taylor Lewan | RSR | 4.5 | 2.8 |
Michigan | OT | Michael Schofield | RSR | 4.5 | |
Michigan | OG | Kyle Kalis | RFR | 1.5 | |
Michigan | OG | Kyle Bosch | FR | 1 | |
Michigan | C | Graham Glasgow | RSO | 2.5 | |
Stanford | OT | Andrus Peat | RFR | 1.5 | 2.7 |
Stanford | OT | Cameron Fleming | RSO | 2.5 | |
Stanford | OG | David Yankey | RSO | 2.5 | |
Stanford | OG | Kevin Danser | RJR | 3.5 | |
Stanford | C | Khalil Wilkes | RJR | 3.5 | |
Baylor | OT | Spencer Drango | RFR | 1.5 | 2.7 |
Baylor | OT | Kevin Palmer | RJR | 3.5 | |
Baylor | OG | Cyril Richardson | RJR | 3.5 | |
Baylor | OG | Desmine Hilliard | RFR | 1.5 | |
Baylor | C | Stefan Huber | RJR | 3.5 | |
Clemson | OT | Brandon Thomas | RJR | 3.5 | 2.7 |
Clemson | OT | Gifford Timothy | RSO | 2.5 | |
Clemson | OG | David Beasley | RSO | 2.5 | |
Clemson | OG | Tyler Shatley | RJR | 3.5 | |
Clemson | C | Ryan Norton | RFR | 1.5 | |
Auburn | OT | Greg Robinson | SO | 2 | 2.3 |
Auburn | OT | Patrick Miller | SO | 2 | |
Auburn | OG | Alex Kozan | RFR | 1.5 | |
Auburn | OG | Chad Slade | JR | 3 | |
Auburn | C | Reese Dismukes | JR | 3 | |
SC | OT | Corey Robinson | RJR | 3.5 | 3 |
SC | OT | Brandon Shell | RSO | 2.5 | |
SC | OG | AJ Cann | RJR | 3.5 | |
SC | OG | Ronald Patrick | SR | 4 | |
SC | C | Cody Waldrop | RFR | 1.5 | |
LSU | OT | La'el Collins | RSO | 2.5 | 2.3 |
LSU | OT | Jerald Hawkins | RFR | 1.5 | |
LSU | OG | Vadal Alexander | RFR | 1.5 | |
LSU | OG | Trai Turner | RSO | 2.5 | |
LSU | C | Elliott Porter | RJR | 3.5 | |
Texas A&M | OT | Jake Matthews | JR | 3 | 2.7 |
Texas A&M | OT | Cedric Ogbuehi | RJR | 3.5 | |
Texas A&M | OG | Jarvis Harrison | RJR | 3.5 | |
Texas A&M | OG | Germain Ifedi | RFR | 1.5 | |
Texas A&M | C | Mike Matthews | SO | 2 | |
UCLA | OT | Simon Goines | SO | 2 | 1.9 |
UCLA | OT | Caleb Benenoch | FR | 1 | |
UCLA | OG | Xavier Su'a-Filo | JR | 3 | |
UCLA | OG | Alex Redmond | FR | 1 | |
UCLA | C | Jake Brendel | RSO | 2.5 | |
ND | OT | Zack Martin | RSR | 4.5 | 3 |
ND | OT | Ronnie Stanley | SO | 2 | |
ND | OG | Chris Watt | RSR | 4.5 | |
ND | OG | Steve Elmer | FR | 1 | |
ND | C | Nick Martin | JR | 3 |
As you can see above, there are 9 teams in top 25 with 3 years or less average experience. A few, including LSU and UCLA have offensive line that is SIGNIFICANTLY younger than Michigan. Amazingly, even with those very young offensive line with freshmen and sophomores, they have managed not to have historically bad offenses with competent rushing attack.
Based on this data, I think blaming our offensive line woes just on experience is not correct. It does not help, but lack of experience does not automatically mean that they will bad. When you have two NFL tackles, you should be able to perform at least average, if not better.
November 5th, 2013 at 2:28 AM ^
November 5th, 2013 at 9:16 AM ^
Not appreciably different than UM's. 2 SRs on O-line
C Evan Boehm SO, Brad McNulty SO
RG Connor McGovern SO, Mitch Hall SO
RT Mitch Morse SO, Taylor Chappell SO
LT Justin Britt SR, Jordan Williams FR
LG Max Copeland SR, Anthony Gatti JR
November 5th, 2013 at 10:50 AM ^
You don't think that's appreciably different? I think we'd be pretty happy if we had three red-shirt sophomores in the interior instead of one paired with a RS FR and a true freshman.
If gameboy ever gets around to correcting the data, you'll find that there aren't a lot of FR or RS FR starting anywhere (except Michigan and UCLA). The light typically comes on in the third year in the program.
November 5th, 2013 at 11:20 AM ^
November 5th, 2013 at 2:46 AM ^
November 5th, 2013 at 3:24 AM ^
You are counting having two 4.5s too much. It is really skewing your data.
We have the youngest interior line of all of those teams
November 5th, 2013 at 4:22 AM ^
November 5th, 2013 at 8:39 AM ^
We have great tackles, but your line is only as good as your interior. Having great tackles do things like seal the edge, and don't let your QB be sacked from the blind side. But When all the pressure is right up in your QB's grill, what is the point? And your RB can't get to the edge when the interior breaks down.
Michigan | OG | Kyle Kalis | RFR | 1.5 | 1.667 |
Michigan | OG | Kyle Bosch | FR | 1 | |
Michigan | C | Graham Glasgow | RSO | 2.5 | |
Stanford | OG | David Yankey | RSO | 2.5 | 3.167 |
Stanford | OG | Kevin Danser | RJR | 3.5 | |
Stanford | C | Khalil Wilkes | RJR | 3.5 | |
Baylor | OG | Cyril Richardson | RJR | 3.5 | 2.833 |
Baylor | OG | Desmine Hilliard | RFR | 1.5 | |
Baylor | C | Stefan Huber | RJR | 3.5 | |
Clemson | OG | David Beasley | RSO | 2.5 | 2.500 |
Clemson | OG | Tyler Shatley | RJR | 3.5 | |
Clemson | C | Ryan Norton | RFR | 1.5 | |
Auburn | OG | Alex Kozan | RFR | 1.5 | 2.500 |
Auburn | OG | Chad Slade | JR | 3 | |
Auburn | C | Reese Dismukes | JR | 3 | |
SC | OG | AJ Cann | RJR | 3.5 | 3.000 |
SC | OG | Ronald Patrick | SR | 4 | |
SC | C | Cody Waldrop | RFR | 1.5 | |
LSU | OG | Vadal Alexander | RFR | 1.5 | 2.500 |
LSU | OG | Trai Turner | RSO | 2.5 | |
LSU | C | Elliott Porter | RJR | 3.5 | |
Texas A&M | OG | Jarvis Harrison | RJR | 3.5 | 2.333 |
Texas A&M | OG | Germain Ifedi | RFR | 1.5 | |
Texas A&M | C | Mike Matthews | SO | 2 | |
UCLA | OG | Xavier Su'a-Filo | JR | 3 | 2.167 |
UCLA | OG | Alex Redmond | FR | 1 | |
UCLA | C | Jake Brendel | RSO | 2.5 | |
ND | OG | Chris Watt | RSR | 4.5 | 2.833 |
ND | OG | Steve Elmer | FR | 1 | |
ND | C | Nick Martin | JR | 3 |
I do want to say thanks for getting this data together. At least you tried more than saying FIRE [insert coach here].
November 5th, 2013 at 8:55 AM ^
but your line is only as good as your interior
This is consistent with what Mattison said from his perspective on the defensive side of the ball. Earlier this year, when asked about his defense's pass rush effectiveness, he said (paraphrase): "It all starts on the inside. If you get good pressure on the inside then the outside line can free up and get to the quarterback."
Interestingly, Michigan is not the only team with offensive line troubles ... Florida's problems stem largely from the same thing. Word from my Florida buddy is the Florida boards are exploding with "Fire Muschamp!" calls.
November 5th, 2013 at 9:00 AM ^
Muschamp had to rebuild that program after it was basically hollowed out by the time Meyer left. He had to completely change the culture, and now he has one of the best defenses in the country. Their lack of OL play and QB developement has prevented them from taking the next step, but I think it would be very short-sighted to let a guy like Muschamp go because they can't handle rebuilding.
Though Texas may be happy to take him back after the season is over...
November 5th, 2013 at 9:35 AM ^
that our interior o-line is very young and the results are self-evident...but at which point in the season as an OC (or HC) do you realize that your o-line cannot handle the pressure and keep the majority of the plays in shorgun??? I mean, I liked the first half game-plan from Borges (for the most part), but the play-action will not and has not worked...why does he continue to try to run up the middle and/or make DG turn his back to the LOS when it is getting us killed???
November 5th, 2013 at 10:34 AM ^
I don't believe there is any way to plan around having a bad interior line. It's like having bad pitching in baseball. You just aren't going to get people out if you don't have a guy who can throw strikes...This is not to say that the coaches are blameless at all.
November 5th, 2013 at 11:12 AM ^
with that analogy to a certain extant...obviously i don't think Michigan was going to control the trenches or win the game by smarter play-calling...but i definitely think that smarter play-calling would have kept the game competitive throughout all 4 quarters vs. the defense getting worn out after getting zero production from the offense in the 2nd half
November 5th, 2013 at 11:44 AM ^
And Michigan fans are over-reacting
Hoke had to rebuild that program after it was basically hollowed out by the time Rodriguez left. He had to completely change the culture, and now he has one of the best defenses in the country. Their lack of OL play and QB developement has prevented them from taking the next step, but I think it would be very short-sighted to let a guy like Hoke go because they can't handle rebuilding.
November 5th, 2013 at 12:10 PM ^
To make matters even worse for Michigan, we have interior linemen playing out of position. Glasgow is a guard, not a center, and that bad snap may have been the most demoralizing play of the game. Magnuson is a tackle, not a guard. Then there is Bosch, a true freshman. Next year, it is likely that either Kugler will be the starting center or Miller will have bulked up enough to handle a job that he otherwise is pretty good at. We will have guards with experience (Kalis, Bosch, Glasgow, Bryant), and Magnuson can move back to tackle. Things are likely to improve and to improve significantly.
November 5th, 2013 at 12:16 PM ^
November 5th, 2013 at 12:27 PM ^
I expect the run blocking to be a lot better but I worry about the pass protection--a struggling backside tackle can get your QB hurt.
I hope the light is coming on for one of the younger RBs. Another Vincent Smith would really help; right now it looks like we're losing the only guy that can be trusted back there.
November 5th, 2013 at 1:04 PM ^
November 5th, 2013 at 11:22 AM ^
The issue is NOT on the edges. Our tackles are more or less eliminating the traditional pass rush of the defensive ends we are facing. MSU is not a good game to use to evaluate the o-line as a whole because their middle pressure eroded any potential continuity our young interior line was/is establishing. I hate the youth excuse as much as anyone but to be fair most of our upperclassmen linemen in the Hoke era (that have played extensively) have been serviceable. What we saw against MSU was not serviceable. I am tired of waiting and have been waiting for an elite team for much too long but there is no doubt our team, especially the o-line, will improve over time. Funk may be a clown but against MSU youth on the line WAS the biggest issue.
November 5th, 2013 at 12:49 PM ^
For this additional data. It really demonstrates just how young our interior line is.
As for the OP, I appreciate the post, but I'm not sure it proves any point. Our interior is where all of our problems are; our 4.5 guys are playing well. All is see that is that where there is experience, there is better play.
November 5th, 2013 at 3:43 AM ^
Should not be assuming a 4/5 year senior plus a freshman equals 2 almost juniors. Look at it this way, if the senior performs their blocking assignments correctly 95% of the time and the freshman is at 80%, the 2 as a unit will not block correctly 87.5% it will be the product of their efficiency or 76%.
November 5th, 2013 at 4:39 AM ^
November 5th, 2013 at 4:59 AM ^
Yeah, let's not actually look at details, let's just scream about how much things suck!!!
Of the teams on this list only UCLA (which, wow!--2 true freshmen), and maybe LSU and Baylor can legitimately be said to match our level of inexperience on the line--in addition to which, the fact that our redshirt sophomore is a walkon should be noted as well. As was said earlier, this is a case where the aggregate numbers do not tell the story. To mock the idea that we have youth (and youth playing out of position) on the interior line as a fairly legit reason why our line might be struggling so severely is utterly ridiculous.
If there's no improvement next year, and if we're not a solid to great line by 2015, I'll go get my pitchfork out of storage and join you in the lynch mob. Until then, let's take a deep breath and accept that not recruiting offensive linemen for three years has consequences.
November 5th, 2013 at 12:07 PM ^
Baylor's starting three fifth-years and two third-years. That's an experienced line.
November 5th, 2013 at 8:13 AM ^
generally agreed with you. He mentioned how inexperienced this group is and then he compared it to the 1997 OL who was really inexperienced as well. He basically said that OLine was no where near as bad as this line is. . .. So the inexperience youth argument can only go so far. . .
November 5th, 2013 at 8:38 AM ^
1997 Starting O-Line:
Backus--Soph
Adami--Senior
Hutchinson--Soph
Jansen--Sr.
Ziemann--Jr.
Not even close. With 3 members (including the 2 sophs) who went on to major NFL careers. Do you have a rational comparison you wish to make?
November 5th, 2013 at 11:03 AM ^
1997 Starting O-Line:
[LT] Backus--Freshman (Rs.) --> 1st year starting
[LG] Hutchinson--Freshman (Rs.) --> 1st year starting
[C] Adami--Senior --> 3rd year starting
[RG] Ziemann--Sophomore (Rs.) --> 1st year starting
[RT] Jansen--Junior (Rs.) --> 3rd year starting
Actually, the comparison is pretty close. As a junior entering that 1997 season I also clearly remember the overall magnitude of worry - comparable to this year's pre-season worries - over having 3 new starters on the line, particularly 2 freshman on the left side. [ah... those were nice days indeed... living directly across from Schembechler Hall on State Street that year was perfect timing]
November 5th, 2013 at 11:43 AM ^
The 1997 offensive line was young and the 1997 offense was not particularly potent. I mean, all that unit had to do was score over 24-28 points and that was pretty much good enough to win every game with their defense. Come to think of it, the 2013 MSU squad reminds me a lot of the 97 team in how they are made up.
Still while your point has some merit, saying that guys like Kalis, Magnuson, and Bosch haven't measured up to two of the best Michigan OL linemen ever by their 1st or 2nd years may be setting expectations a little high.
November 5th, 2013 at 9:20 AM ^
November 5th, 2013 at 9:59 PM ^
There wasn't much compeition. Both Hutchinson and Zieman were switched from the defensive line to the offensive line during spring practice in 1997.
November 5th, 2013 at 6:21 AM ^
November 5th, 2013 at 9:48 AM ^
I did notice that Rivals was not consistent with grades. So, I went and looked up all the guys to see which year they graduated when I compiled this list. There could be errors on redshirt, but they should be fairly accurate.
November 5th, 2013 at 9:52 AM ^
They are not. You're zero-for-ten on the ones I've checked, and there's lots of bio data (like "what I did during my redshirt season") to confirm it.
November 5th, 2013 at 10:05 AM ^
This is the depth chart from Rivals. Most likely they have not updated from beginning of the season. In addition, I checked every player to see which year they graduated high school. I will be happy to update it if there are better sources.
November 5th, 2013 at 6:47 AM ^
I'm not sure how accurate this is. Just looking at Stanford, their website lists their starting OL as So, Sr, 5th, 5th, Sr. Even assuming that they are all redshirted, that would put them at 1.5, 3.5, 4.5, 4.5, 3.5 for an "average" of 3.5.
Yes, the OL is bad. Yes, the OL is young. Yes, there are teams that have young lines that are not bad.
November 5th, 2013 at 7:02 AM ^
they've faced?
November 5th, 2013 at 7:14 AM ^
First, as has been said, two fifth year seniors and two redshirt freshman is not equivalent to 4 juniors, although based on your averages system, they would be. Second, a better look would be at the experience of all of the O-linemen on the team, not just the starters. This is because a freshman starter who beat out a junior or senior is more likely to have truly earned the spot than a freshman who beat out other freshmen, meaning the competition was not as good. Also, doing analysis in this manner would prevent skewing by one or two guys, which is the current problem with your analysis.
November 5th, 2013 at 11:50 AM ^
Averages are not a good measuring point as they skew the results weirdly. Example, on average, our population has one boob and one testicle, yet that is not an accurate description of what the population is.
I'd say our interior is younger than almost any in the country. I also expect more out of this unit. I really believe that Borges and Funke should have developed a simpler blocking scheme for this unit. Keep them lined up in the same 5 all year, and focus on getting the first level. It seemed the team did this two years ago.
November 5th, 2013 at 8:31 AM ^
Do any of these other teams have huge holes (where there are no upperclassmen at their position to compete with and learn from?
MICHIGAN FOOTBALL DEPTH BY CLASS 2013 |
|||||
Position |
Incoming (c/o 2018) |
Freshmen (c/o 2017) |
Sophomores (c/o 2016) |
Juniors (c/o 2015) |
Seniors (c/o 2014) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
QB (3 + 1) | W. Speight (EE) | R. Bellomy* | D. Gardner* | ||
RB (6 - 1) | J. Hayes* | T. Rawls | F. Toussaint* | ||
FB (2 + 0) |
J. Kerridge*# S. Houma |
||||
WR (6 + 0) | A. Darboh |
J. Gallon* |
|||
Slot (3 + 0) | F. Canteen (EE) | D. Jones | D. Norfleet | D. Dileo | |
TE (5 + 1) | I. Bunting | J. Paskorz* | |||
OT (6 - 1) | Bushell-Beatty |
M. Schofield* T. Lewan* |
|||
OG (5 + 1) |
M. Cole (EE) |
||||
C (3 + 0) | P. Kugler |
G. Glasgow*# |
J. Burzynski*# | ||
DT (4 - 1) |
T. Strobel* |
J. Black | |||
NT (4 - 0) | B. Mone (EE) | M. Hurst Jr. | O. Pipkins | R. Ash* | |
SDE (3 + 0) | K. Heitzman* | ||||
WDE (3 + 1) | L. Marshall | F. Clark | |||
SLB (5 - 0) | C. Winovich |
M. McCray A. Gant* |
J. Ryan* B. Beyer |
C. Gordon* | |
MLB (2 + 2) |
M. Ferns (EE) |
J. Bolden | D. Morgan |
|
|
WLB (3 + 1) |
J. Ross R. Jenkins-Stone |
||||
CB (9 + 1) |
B. Watson (EE) J. Peppers |
D. Hollowell R. Taylor |
|||
FS (4 - 1) |
|
T. Gordon* | |||
SS (2 - 0) | J. Wilson | ||||
P/K/LS (4 - 1) |
M. Wile W. Hagerup* |
B. Gibbons* | |||
Total (82 + 3) | 15 | 39 | 18 | 13 | 12 |
projected starters in bold, returning starters in italics. |
November 5th, 2013 at 9:15 AM ^
I've seen the depth chart laid out like this a few times and it still shocks me. Silver lining-- the receiving line for offensive players on Senior Day 2014 will be the shortest in history!
November 5th, 2013 at 11:46 AM ^
Seeing all those empty sqaures for the upcoming graduating classes....whew, that's just incredible.
And I thought we were senior depleted after the 2009 season....
November 5th, 2013 at 10:06 AM ^
Most schools had many freshmen and sophomores in their two deep. That is not rare.
November 5th, 2013 at 10:45 AM ^
That's because juniors are showing up in your data as sophomores.
It's quite rare to have successive classes so devoid of linemen. Only UCLA has had anything similar. If you look at the actual rosters of anyone else you'll find scholarship upperclassmen. Maybe they got passed by someone younger, but they're there.
November 5th, 2013 at 8:43 AM ^
November 5th, 2013 at 9:04 AM ^
Is what I don't understand that others have a difficult time grasping. Youth is a problem. It's a serious and legit problem, there is absolutely no doubt about it. It doesn't mean it's the only problem. Some could be the players not grasping it yet when most (or some) others would. Some could be the coaching. Some could be a lot of different things. But some is certainly youth, because youth is very evident and OL is a very difficult position to play when you're young.
I guess I just don't understand why everyone needs a single thing to point to, as if it can't be more complex than that. I guess you can count two: Funk and Borges. But even the coaching staff, in their canned answers, aren't that simplistic. They talk about youth, they talk about the mental aspect, they talk about needing to execute better (which is on players and coaches), they talk about needing to coach better, they talk about technique. So the coaches canned non-answers are more informative than many people's "informed" arguments.
FWIW: aTm, UCLA, Clemson have all been schools that have also had major OL issues this year, and has been a big thing in keeping them back. Manziel, Hundley, and Boyd are probably 3 of the top 6ish QBs in college football right now, and are getting beat up week in and week out. So, while they are putting up some numbers, a big part of that is having great QBs and skill position guys around them to make up for it to a degree, and it's still the OL that is mostly holding them back, especially in pass protection.
November 5th, 2013 at 11:05 AM ^
Good to see that you are still here and insightful as always
November 5th, 2013 at 4:30 PM ^
I agree that there can be more than one problem with the O-line. It is probably a combination of youth and bad training. Its interesting that Mattison came in during his first year and started working with the D in the spring- by fall, RR's kids were much improved- clearly a result of training. Yet people expect an O-line full of seniors before it performs. The O-line will need 5 years of recruitng to accomplish what Mattison did in 5 months of training. This is a very selective memory, especially when the adage is "you train offense but recruit for defense."
November 7th, 2013 at 4:44 PM ^
November 5th, 2013 at 8:50 AM ^
You have calculated the mean. Which team has the highest standard deviation and variance? I like mgobaran's post where he looks at only guards and centers. We are getting blown off the ball because our interior line is not ready to be playing B1G football yet. I still believe that this line will get better simply because guys are going to get another year in the weight room and experience with the coaches. I would say in 2 years Michigan has the strongest OL in the B1G.
November 5th, 2013 at 8:59 AM ^
Is it sad that my first thought on reading this thread is that it should be bumped to the front page because it actually contains a reasonbly thoughtful discussion with actual data?
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