Nice analysis, though.
OT: By the Numbers - 'Bama vs Florida
Had a request to do this for a couple more games, figured I would give the Game of the Century of the Year of the Week a shot.
Alabama Running GameAlabama rush offense: -1 (75th)
Florida rush defense: +3 (13)
Alabama has one of those deceiving rushing games that depending on your opinion, is where advanced analysis can shine some counter-intuitive light or completely falls apart.
Despite averaging over 200 yards a game on the ground, on a total value basis, the Bama rushing attack is a net negative for the team. A lot of that is due to the fact that they are accumulating the 200 yards on nearly 40 attempts per game. I believe there is some unaccounted for value to an offense that is able to stick with the run that many times in a game, but this is still not a rush offense that is going to light up the scoreboard. Keeping Tim Tebow off of the field with grinding drives will be good enough.
Mark Ingram had been getting serious Heisman talk until last week's stinker. Going into the game Ingram rated +3 and was a top 10 running back. But after Auburn held him to a -8 he dropped to 31st rated and barring a dominating performance Saturday, likely out of the Heisman consideration.
Florida's rush defense has been one of the nation's best, allowing a NCAA low 3 rush TD's on the season. Florida's rush defense will be called upon to not only slow but to shut down Alabama's rushing game. As the Crimson Tide look to keep the ball away from Florida's offense, Florida's defense will look to continue its trend of scaring teams out of the run, seeing only 23 rushes during non-garbage time a game, 4th lowest in the NCAA.
Projected Outcome: -4, 30 carries, 110 yards, 1 TD
Alabama Pass OffenseAlabama pass offense: +4 (17)
Florida pass defense: +8 (3)
Alabama's success in the passing is likely a direct result of their ability to run the ball. Teams are loaded up to slow it down, which as seen above can be done to some extent, but the efficient Alabama passing game has been able to take advantage of the opportunities they have.
Greg McElroy has been solid at QB this year but his individual rank of 38th, 20 spots below the team, is a direct result of an offensive line that has not allowed many too take him down.
Florida's pass defense is a whole other animal. Even without suspended defensive end Dunlap, Florida's pass defense should be quite a challenge for McElroy and crew. The Gator pass D ranks 3rd overall, but on a per play basis it's not even close. Averaging nearly 0.4 points per play, no other team in the nation averages more than 0.3.
Projected Outcome: -4 15/25 150 yards 1 TD 1 INT
Florida Rush OffenseFlorida rush offense: +4 (5)
Alabama rush defense: +4 (7)
Clash of the titans right here. Two great units will go head to head when Florida tries to put the ball on the ground. Florida features a variety of backs and of course, the Tebow child. Demps and Tebow add most of the value to the Florida rushing game, each contributing about 2 points per game on the ground.
The varied attack of the Florida running game will go against one of only two defenses in the country to allow less than 100 yards a game on the ground. Only Texas and TCU have scared off offensive coordinators from the run more than Alabama, who has only seen 22 rushes a game against them in competitive situations.
Projected Outcome: +0, 30 carries, 120 yards 2 TD
Florida Pass OffenseFlorida pass offense: +3 (28)
Alabama pass defense: +9 (1)
Although Florida has had a very solid passing game this year, this is the first category that Alabama comes out of with a clear advantage. Tebow comes in as the 17th rated QB in the country but as noted above, much of that is due to his prowess as a runner. If Alabama is going to be the SEC survivor, big stops or interceptions in the passing look to be their best opportunity.
Projected outcome: -6 20/35 160 yards 1 TD 1 INT
Rest of the PictureKicking:Alabama, big
Florida kickoff: Even
Alabama kickoff: Even
Alabama looks to have the advantage in special teams. Tiffin has been one of the country's top kickers and Florida's kicking crew has struggled. If their are going to be fireworks in the return game, Alabama's returns have been better however Florida has done an excellent job of limiting returns on the season.
Both teams have been in the top 20 in the nation in turnover margin. Florida's work has been worth about a touchdown more year to date, due in large part to a top 5 +58 from picking off opponent passes. Interceptions may be hard to come by, however, as Alabama is fifth best nationally with only 10 points lost to interceptions.
PredictionsFlorida 21 Alabama 19
Cincinnati 34 Pitt 27
Fresno State 31 Illinois 24
Clemson 31 Georgia Tech 30
Texas 24 Nebraska 14
Wisconsin 35 Hawaii 21
...it seems like your numbers lead to often inaccurate predictions; at the very least, they are no more reliable than normal metrics.
What no numerical analysis can yield is the psychological aspect of the game. Like it or not, it exists. That was clearly evident for the Florida-Alabama game.