You summed it up perfectly.
I'm not sure why everyone has this certainty that Forcier is a "better" recruit than Beaver - he is marginally ranked higher, but they are so close that it's essentially meaningless. This hurts us merely because having 3 viable candidates compete for the starting QB position is more likely to yield a positive result than having 2 viable candidates compete for the starting QB position.
Also, as Blue Durham notes, attrition is rampant. This year, according to Rivals rankings, we should have had a starting O-line of Boren at C, Zirbel and Alex Mitchell at G, and Schilling and Justin Schifano at tackle. All those players were at least 4-star recruits (not to mention Brett Gallimore, another 4-star O-line recruit who is no longer on the team). We had ONE of those. Again, based on rankings and "projected" depth charts, we should have had Chris Rogers (a top 50 recruit) playing LB for us this year, and 4-star Cobrani Mixon helping out, and ready to team with Jonas Mouton and Obi Ezeh as a true junior/RS sophomore. We could have had Antonio Bass at QB, and Eugene Germany (4-star) ready to step into the void at the other DE spot. We wouldn't have to depend on a true freshman and sophomore at DT, because Jason Kates and James McKinney (both 4-stars) would be around. You see how stupid this is? Any effort to look at Rivals rankings, and then forecast out a depth chart is folly.