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The Offense: Fandom, Confirmation Bias, And Why It's Probably Better Than You Or Brian Think

By mejunglechop — September 13th, 2011 at 7:44 AM — 116 comments
Filed under:
  • 2010 Michigan Football
  • 2011 michigan football
  • denard
  • dilithium
  • football
  • Football; Rich Rodriguez; Michigan; Denard; Big House

As anyone who has ever moderated a liveblog can tell you, the psychology of fans is a curious thing. Here are some submissions that seemed sane enough to publish in the first quarter (no usernames, that would be cruel):

  • So what if we get pounded, we're still 2-0 against them the past 2 years
  • our offense has been downgraded from AAA to "Greece".
  • If Denard don't get his shit together next series, I would entertain the thought of putting Gardner in.
  • How come ND bounced back from a couple sucky seasons so much faster than us?
  • I would suggest Michigan drop ND from the schedule until the team gets better
  • Good thing we didn't pay $300 a ticket for this, eh?
  • Enough is enough. Denard needs to consider calling his own plays in open rebellion if that's what it takes to win.
  • now we have a bad defense AND a bad offense
  • ...we are completely overmatched. No getting around that.

Small samples. We jump in it. The feelings fans get in their guts is so strong they can’t help but make bold public proclamations after less than a quarter when they know it’s dangerous to read too much into the result of an entire game. Sometimes USC loses as a 41 point favorite and goes on to win everything else. Sometimes James Madison beats that season’s ACC champ. Sometimes The Horror, then Tebow Smash. Everyone knows this. It’s at least partially why Brian felt compelled to protest the strictures and conventions of sportswriting when making his prediction Friday.

As you might be able to tell from the title, this diary is a reaction to Denard After Dentist. The title choice is apt, at least in some ways. My buzz didn’t wear off until Sunday evening. Brian’s as big a Michigan fan as there is, and between the muppets and the “that happened” post, I’m sure he got a great glow himself. But Denard After Dentist came from a guy whose trip took him some places he’d rather not go. Don’t take my word for it:

But I hope I'm not the only one who felt a sense of foreboding in the midst of the joy and relief. We've seen this script the last two years, and never has it been as rickety.

Rodriguez was hired on the promise of bringing our offense into the space age. Zone left, run, run, pass on third and long: gone. Dreadlocks, speed, Barwisbeasts, fuse blowing scoreboards, modernity: in. That’s what we were promised. One of Bo’s players came back to lead the program and pretty soon Rodriguez was gone. Dan Mullen was quickly ruled out, and when Hoke was introduced at that press conference he conflated Michigan football primarily with toughness and that seemed like the day Dilithium died. 

Perhaps the most surprising element of Denard After Dentist wasn’t anything Brian wrote, but that no one in the comments challenged the central premise: that Dilithium is dying. Certainly, it feels that way, it has since January. But that’s not enough. Not on MGoBlog. This is a data driven place. Where’s the evidence? WHERE ARE THE CHARTS?

 

Michigan 2010

Michigan 2011

total drives

16

14

avg. starting field position

MICH 31.6

MICH 22.5

total plays

83

50

points

28

35

yards

532

452

yards per drive

33.25

32.28

yards per play

6.41

9.04

points per drive

1.75

2.5

points per play

0.337

0.7

punts

10

5

giveaways

0

3

3rd down efficiency

3 of 16

3 of 9

net penalties (on offense)*

-54

11

**

Again, this is silly. Drawing conclusions from one game is a fool’s errand. But last year’s offensive performance against Notre Dame sure doesn’t look as good as you remember it, does it? If Brian wants us to accept that our offense is worse than it was, it’s inconvenient that our offensive performance this year was actually much better. 

This is an aside, but here’s what Brian had to say about last year’s win:

I was going to let my skepticism overwhelm, to wait until it was obvious that 2010 was not going to be 2009, but I lasted two games. I'm in the tank again...

I've got an answer for the Courant now: Michigan is receivers blocking like tiny mountain goats 40 yards downfield because it matters, because if you set Denard free he'll go "AHHHH" at you afterwards. He'll smile and it will seem like the sun is poking through dark clouds, scattering colors in a circle all around you.

It’s a jarring contrast to the quote about the script never having been as rickety. And this:

All the reasons it left you with your finger between your teeth are reasons to wonder about the smoothness of this transition (not very), the repeatability of such miracles (even less).

Another aside: what a strange turn of phrase. Reasons to wonder? If Brian were wondering those parentheticals wouldn’t be there.

The smoothness of the transition is still an open question. As I showed above the statistics of the only real test so far this year don’t indicate anything is amiss. 

Turning to how repeatable our road to victory was***

I think any reasonable observer would answer that we got at least fairly lucky. But I don’t think we were as lucky as Brian seems to think or nearly lucky as last year. We had two big factors going for us last year that were not replicable with any sort of consistency.

First, if your recall, Notre Dame’s starting quarterback was knocked out of most of the first half (his backups and Brian Kelly’s ethics were of such quality that he returned and played for the second half with what was almost certainly a concussion).

Secondly, while this year we were the beneficiaries of two gift fumbles (certainly quite lucky), that’s outweighed by the fact last year we were +3 in turnover margin with a defense that was absolutely abysmal at creating turnovers and an offense and special teams that gave gifts freely.

Possible items that one might argue are not replicable from this year’s game:

  • Denard completed a couple jump balls to Junior Hemingway, who has a knack for catching those sorts of things . I guess that’s kind of lucky, but not particularly when you consider he missed a couple long shots downfield too.
  • Denard also threw a couple jump balls to Gallon. Both got completed in the end zone, but one to the other team. Tell me if I’m being cavalier in counting that as a wash.
  • The Denard fumble recovery score- How lucky is something when it mainly cancels out catastrophic unluckiness? I guess it depends on your perspective, but, of course, it registers.
  • Gallon being invisible isn’t any more lucky than the blown coverage we had that allowed the go-ahead score two plays before. 

Conclusions:

  1. Making bold conclusions from a single quarter or game is silly (remind yourself)

  2. We should be conscious that even minor failures in this year’s offense feed into our confirmation bias that a MANBALL head coach won’t hire someone who can handle Dilithium nearly as well as Rodriguez
  3. Michigan’s offense performed significantly better against Notre Dame statistically than it did last year
  4. (remind yourself of the first thing)
  5. We were at least fairly lucky to win this year
  6. We were luckier last year
  7. BONUS: The luck we had last year didn’t suppress our optimism. Maybe it should have a little, but the idea that there’s a script and if we let optimism creep in we’re doomed to follow it is silly.

Footnotes

*It should be noted that the yardage numbers don’t include the net yardage changes incurred by penalties for/against the offense. Last year’s game featured a lot of drive killing penalties and Notre Dame’s defense incurred none. Whereas last year our offense had a net of 54 yards of penalties against it, this year the offense gained a net of 11 yards from penalties. Again these aren’t reflected in any other yardage numbers.

**Caveats: ND has 8 defensive starters back, it’s fair to assume they’re better defensively this year… Last year’s game featured two missed Brendan Gibbons field goals from 39 and 40 yards, take your wild guess as to what the chances are of either going in this year and adjust your assessment of the offense’s performance accordingly.

***Given that Brian’s preceding sentences gave examples from both sides of the ball, I’m fairly certain I’m on safe ground including defensive play in my response.

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September 13th, 2011 at 7:51 AM | Thank you for this.  I've (Score:5 Normal)
chunkums
chunkums's picture
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 9106

Thank you for this.  I've seen some commentary that we were stubborn to run it so much, but we ran a total of 8 times from under center.  Furthermore, there were wide open passes all game, particularly early when we ran what looked like a speed option pass to Hemingway which was vastly overthrown.  The big difference is that Denard was way off in the start, but not in the end IMO.

For today, goodbye. For tomorrow, good luck. And forever, Go Blue.

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September 13th, 2011 at 12:26 PM | Was it just me (Score:1)
maizenbluenc
maizenbluenc's picture
Joined: 07/21/2009
MGoPoints: 2677

or did Denard's passes seem less accurate than last week, and really wobbly?

Anyway, my view is almost every one of those receptions were damned lucky, and better pass coverage would have either batted them down or intercepted them. We were one additional interception away from losing that game. That is a risk profile I'd prefer not to continue through the season, and the prime reason why I am as unsettled as Brian.

As for the defense, it seems like there is improvement: maybe even a lot. It is still early days though in a new system, and coaches are still figuring out what the best permutation of players and plays are, while players are still figuring out the new system.

The questions appear to be simple:

1) Can Fitz stay healthy enough to play through the B1G schedule - or is he Minor II?

2) Will Borges work his offensive genius, and find the right balance to reach the path of Dilithium when we need it, and ball control when we need it?

3) Will the defense continue to adjust and improve across the season?

Moreover, will the latter two progress enough before we face MSU in their snazzy OSU Pro Combat look alike unis.

Bottom line: rickety is aptly termed - they look like a team in the early days of transition - how quickly can they optimize?

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September 13th, 2011 at 8:09 AM | Definitely a "Lost Cause" (Score:5 Normal)
gordie bell
gordie bell's picture
Joined: 03/15/2009
MGoPoints: 7965

Definitely a "Lost Cause" myth that will adopted by RR's diehard supporters. Any play from under center from now to eternity that doesn't work, will be contrasted with fanciful fantasies about Denard scampering 80 yards if that darn Al Borges would only put him in the Shotgun.The odd part is, posters who take this position will freely admit that RR deserved to go

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September 13th, 2011 at 8:56 AM | All true, but so is the fact (Score:3 Normal)
ChasingRabbits
ChasingRabbits's picture
Joined: 01/19/2010
MGoPoints: 1238

All true, but so is the fact that RR's diehard detractors will point to a much improved D, when in fact "statistically" we did better against ND last year.  In 2010 we gave up less points, first downs, rushing yards, completions, forced more punts. etc.

Its like politics. Your side is wrong, becasue, well..  you're the other side.

I just hope all the problems on both sides of the ball get straightened out, because I hate politics.

 

Go Blue!

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September 13th, 2011 at 9:07 AM | It's not a fair comparison. (Score:4 Normal)
mejunglechop
mejunglechop's picture
Joined: 07/09/2008
MGoPoints: 6419

It's not a fair comparison. Last year their starting quarterback was out or concussed for all,  but one drive. The backups were completely useless.

Galileo was also chastised.

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September 13th, 2011 at 9:34 AM | One of those backups (Score:1 Overrated)
Maize
Maize's picture
Joined: 04/01/2009
MGoPoints: 151

One of those backups who were useless, Beat out that qb and started this years game. It's pretty fair to say that he received that concussion at the hands of our defense too. Either way this isn't about defense. It's about playcalling on offense. Which this chart doesn't address at all. I'm ok with the end result and output as I'm sure everyone else is. I'm also pretty confident Borges will tweak his strategy as the games go by. Where the hell was the Denard, play-action pass? Are we gonna see that this year?

Tressel: Pounding kids since April 2010.

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September 13th, 2011 at 10:14 AM | No this is about defense, you (Score:4 Normal)
mejunglechop
mejunglechop's picture
Joined: 07/09/2008
MGoPoints: 6419

No this is about defense, you jacked my thread with chasing rabbits. I've said pretty much all I have to say about the offense in the diary. If you're disappointed it didn't directly address your narrow concern rest assured I never intended it to.

Galileo was also chastised.

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September 13th, 2011 at 11:22 AM | Offensive playcalling.. (Score:4 Normal)
Maize
Maize's picture
Joined: 04/01/2009
MGoPoints: 151

Offensive playcalling is the concern here and it is far from narrow. We all know that we ended the the game with decent offensive statistics. Well, except for maybe Denards completion percentage which you failed to post. But that couldn't have been affected by timing and footwork involved in the new offensive schemes. Thank you for posting a box score posing as a diary. You were correct when you said that drawing conclusions from one game is a fool’s errand though. I refuse to draw conclusions until we have seen more of this years offense.

Tressel: Pounding kids since April 2010.

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September 13th, 2011 at 9:40 AM | The backup (Score:-1 Overrated)
ann.arbor.lover
ann.arbor.lover's picture
Joined: 09/15/2010
MGoPoints: 88

The backup QB did complete a 97-yarder to Rudolph, though.

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September 13th, 2011 at 9:49 AM | No. http://scores.espn.go.com (Score:5 Normal)
mejunglechop
mejunglechop's picture
Joined: 07/09/2008
MGoPoints: 6419

No. http://scores.espn.go.com/ncf/playbyplay?gameId=302540087&period=0

Galileo was also chastised.

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September 13th, 2011 at 10:47 AM | No, he didn't.  (Score:5 Normal)
Fuzzy Dunlop
Fuzzy Dunlop's picture
Joined: 09/22/2009
MGoPoints: 4175

No, he didn't. 

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September 13th, 2011 at 9:50 AM | "Lost cause myth?" (Score:2 Normal)
Tater
Tater's picture
Joined: 08/13/2008
MGoPoints: 10377

The only "lost cause myths" I see are coming from those who are still bitching about RR when they should be celebrating a great victory.  Piss in the pool later, pls.

 

 

 

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September 13th, 2011 at 10:13 AM | You obviously, willfully ignored (Score:5 Normal)
M-Wolverine
M-Wolverine's picture
Joined: 10/04/2009
MGoPoints: 38826

The front page post this thread was referring to.  The pissing about the win didn't come from someone bitching about RR.

"I love him, he's a great coach, he's a great mentor, he's a great friend. He's every single thing you want a college coach to be, and he does it flawlessly." -David Molk

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September 13th, 2011 at 8:14 AM | Great post.  I had a similar (Score:5 Normal)
Fuzzy Dunlop
Fuzzy Dunlop's picture
Joined: 09/22/2009
MGoPoints: 4175

Great post.  I had a similar post on the boards, but this is far more detailed and persuasive.  For those who might misinterpret this, the point isn't that this year's offense is better than last year based on one game -- it's that the data doesn't yet back up Brian's (and others) concerns about massive offensive regression.  At this point, such concerns no more than "just FEELINGS, man", which Brian decried whenever anyone expressed disappointment in the offense last year.

As far as replicability of performance versus last year, keep in mind that one of our TD drives last year started around the ND 30 because of a turnover.  And as much as we love Denard's 87-yard touchdown, I don't think when the play was drawn up anyone imagined Omameh taking out two guys with one block, which turned a 20-25 yard gain into the Dilithium Express.  Was that play really more replicable than the jump ball to Hemingway?

There's legitimate reason to be concerned about the offense this year, just as those of us who expressed concern about its consistency last year had legitimate points.  But it's too soon to say the sky is falling.

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September 13th, 2011 at 9:14 AM | Brilliant post by OP (Score:5 Insightful)
M-Wolverine
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Jumping on here, because you've encapsulated my thoughts pretty well. For years we've heard about how everything should be data driven, and based in fact, not feelings, because they're misleading. Yet for the last nine months the analysis has gone out the window, and it ALL been about the feelings. We've had columns of dread instead of columns of San Diego State or Past Mattison analysis. Which is fine, it's a blog, it can be emotion driven. It's just it seems problematic to some to do so much of what you attacked others for doing.  I keep thinking back to the summer between year 2 and 3 of Rich Rod, when Brian said, "hey, he's going to be around through the whole season, so you might as well get on board and see what happens, because anything else adds negativity and hurts the program".  Sometimes, I wish he'd take his own advice. He sad sack act is a waste because nothing's going to change for at least 3 years.  And with recruiting, there's a good sign probably not after that.  He's acting more like he had a loved one die than had a losing football coach fired.  I liked Rich. I like Brady a lot better. But if Brady's record is as pathetic as the last 3 years have been, I'm not going to kid myself that miracles were around the corner (seeing this year's defense with a  GOOD coordinator shows we weren't just some staff changes away from eternal dominance...just another rebuilding project), and that he didn't succeed. And it's a shame for him and the program, but a change would have to be made.

Brian's head seems to tell him that was the case, but his heart doesn't seem to be able to wrap itself around the concept. I doubt there was anything in engineering to get so emotional about, but if he stuck to his beliefs rather than the data there the way he does over a spread football coach, I can see why he's writing a blog.  I just wish he'd be consistent in "this is a Michigan fan's blog, emotional highs and lows", or "This is the thinking man's take on Football, and only Spock-like logic will be accepted".  Because both seems wishy-washy at best, and hypocritical at worst.

"I love him, he's a great coach, he's a great mentor, he's a great friend. He's every single thing you want a college coach to be, and he does it flawlessly." -David Molk

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September 13th, 2011 at 9:44 AM | I wish people would stop (Score:5 Insightful)
Needs
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I wish people would stop attributing some kind of blind emotionalism to Brian's fretting. I think he's been pretty clear that his worries are based in his concerns about the logic of the offense. For a number of reasons that I'll expound on later, I think he's being too hasty, but he's not mooning over the loss of Rodriguez, if anything, he's mooning over the loss of logical clarity about how the offense will be run.

Brian clearly buys into the Smart Football theory of base offense and constraint plays, with base being the offense that works if the defense is playing honest and constraint plays being the offense designed to punish them for cheating, forcing them back into playing honest defense. RichRod's offense represents the epitome of this philosophical approach to offense, both because it builds constraint into the base play, in the form of the zone read, and allows a bunch of variations from the same set (e.g., the H-back wham block on a DE who's going to rapidly upfield, the QB oh-noes). In my eyes, Brian never loved RichRod the person so much as RichRod the logician, mainly because he presented the defense with a series of difficult choices. 

Brian's concern about Hoke and Borges has been based out of the same philosophical understandings of offense, mainly arising from a fear that the base offense ("that power play") poorly matches M's offensive personnel, both in the form of Denard's athletic gifts, the line 's (partic. Molk's) zone blocking ability, etc. The fear goes that without a decent base play, the defense will not be  forced to cheat, creating an offense that is, in his words, not sustainable. The constraint plays (waggle, play action) won't work, the philosophy suggests, if it doesn't have to cheat to defend the base plays. Note that the sustainability of offense in this  philosophy comes from forcing the defense to adjust back and forth from playing honest to cheating, and taking advantage of that uncertainty.

Now, I don't think Brian's wrong to be concerned based on this philosophy of offense, but Smart Football's theory of offense does have some shortcomings, particularly when applied to Michigan.

1. It downplays what we might call "matchup football." Another theory of offense would be that offenses should work to identify a defense's weakest link and then ruthlessly exploit it until the whole defense has to change. This is the philosophy of 'picking on' people, and I think we saw how effective it can be, bot h in the form of JT Floyd and Gary Gray. Borges seems to follow this theory, spending the early game looking for matchups and then using the latter parts of the game to exploit them.

2. The option routes that Borges runs are a great example of the base/constraint dynamic in the midst of the play, exactly what Brian liked about RichRod's offense. Denard's passes may have looked like jump balls, and when he misread the coverage (3d interception) they functionally were, but they were actually route adjustments to CB's playing inside. Watch the replay of Roundtree's TD from the end zone. Gray's playing inside technique, Roundtree runs at him, fakes a slant cut, pinning Gray inside, then runs a fade. This forces Gray to turn his back and basically guarantees the play result will be either a catch, interference, or a poorly thrown ball/drop. RichRod did not build this kind of option routing into his passing game, leaving it pretty primitive and ineffective when passing became necessary.

I think Brian's concerns about the running game are well founded, but I also think Borges is in the process of figuring out what will work. He's had 1 1/2 games to really see what's effective. The non-conference portion of the schedule was always going to be a feeling out period in which the broader offense took shape. By the Big Ten season, a clearer playcalling philosophy should be in place. Let's judge him on that and the big test is the MSU game.

But criticize Brian on the merits of his argument (as this excellent diary does) not by psychologizing him. That's easy, lazy, and doesn't accomplish much.

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September 13th, 2011 at 10:01 AM | Great post. By giving your (Score:4 Normal)
mejunglechop
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Great post. By giving your interpretation of Brian's true motives you unwittingly psychoanalyzed him yourself, but at least it was charitable.

Galileo was also chastised.

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September 13th, 2011 at 12:21 PM | Psyco-analyzing Brian (Score:1)
blue in dc
Joined: 01/23/2011
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1. One of the most important things to remember is - it's not what you think you are saying or writing, it is what the people who you are communicating too are hearing. A lot of people on this blog seem to be hearing pining for returning to the RR offense



2. Some people have suggested that if you don't like what Brian has to say, don't read his blog. I'd say, if you're going to write a blog and have strong opinions, people are going to disagree with many of them. While Brian deserves a ton of credit for developing such a great blog that has attracted lots of people who are really passionate about Michigan, and in particular Michigan football, the blog would not be successful without the passion of its readers.



3. For the psyco-analysis (i'm not sure this is rwally pyscho-analysis since Brian has actually said some of it). I think that Brian would be overjoyed to be proven wrong and see Hoke field a top ten team that is regularly in the hunt for a national title. I think he fears that that we'll actually be a perenial top twenty-five team that is generally considered good, but rarely great. I think that puts him in a very conflicted plave as a fan. Each Hoke success ensures more Hoke - if he doesn't see it ending in the pinnacle of National championshpis, it just means more 8-4 to 10-2. Granted that would be better than the last 3 years, but something that would still leave many/most/all of us less than fully satisfied. Luckily I don't have that conflict, I think Hoke can lead us to being an elite team again. Ironically, however, that is the very conflict I had with RR, I could see him turning us into a good but not great team that would be fun to watch, but I didn't see him leading us to relevance in early January.

You can be blue and still be green

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September 13th, 2011 at 10:11 AM | This is very wise (Score:1)
Pibby Scott
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Thanks.

 

I appreciate smart writing and smart fans.

and if I appeared first as an elderly man and not as a young one

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September 13th, 2011 at 10:28 AM | Building on what MJC is (Score:4 Normal)
STW P. Brabbs
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Building on what MJC is saying, I think you've pinpointed the Brian phenomenon with regard to Rodriguez:  he remains passionately, emotionally invested in the logical beauty of the Rodriguez offense.  Sometimes to the detriment of clear-mindedness.

So yeah, a little of both in terms of emotional roller coasters and Spock.

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September 13th, 2011 at 10:29 AM | I will when he start posting again on data (Score:5 Normal)
M-Wolverine
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And not emotional reactions.  But if it was all a philosophical view, he'd have spent equal time the last 4 years analyzing and discussing defense.  And worrying about how bad it was (and more importantly, why) as he does about an offense that won a game this year. But he chooses to have a bias/interest/whatever in offense, and not really go into depth on defense. That's a choice of emotion, not logic. Whether it's just because offense is "interesting and cool", at best, or "talking about defense doesn't make Rich look so good like talking about offense in losses" at the most cynical, in any regard, it's an emotional decision.

If everyone, Brian included, can agree that defense has been the story/cause of Michigan Football the last 4 years, why all the hand-wringing over offense? The off-season shouldn't have been filled with posts about how worried we should be about the offense, but how the defense should be fixed. THAT'S logical. And instead of Spring articles on "you know, our offense was really good vs. Wisconsin...let's look back and see", we needed to see how and if it was even in Rich's capability to fix the defense, rather than lament the loss of roses and sugarplums that were coming with that offense. Because both this year and last show that without defense, the funniest offenses are only going to take you so far.  Yeah, he can worry about how we might actually beat Illinois by more than single digits, and how that might make us incrementally better this year. But till he can show how the defense was going to improve to the point that we were actually going to be able to win real games, I'll take the long term big defensive improvement even if it means a bit of long term offensive regression, or maybe even a little more in the short term. Till that's shown to be a bad thing, the offensive analysis only tells one side of the story.  And you can attribute anything you want to ignoring the other half.

"I love him, he's a great coach, he's a great mentor, he's a great friend. He's every single thing you want a college coach to be, and he does it flawlessly." -David Molk

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September 13th, 2011 at 11:08 AM | That is so true!  When we had (Score:1)
ForestCityBlue
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That is so true!  When we had an offense that was ripping up and down the field, why so little angst about defense?  I do think it was the coolness factor.  Again, there was all the focus of teaching and analysis about the offense, but little to help understand/critique/defend?!? the defense.  Yet it was the defense that was the black hole.  In the Lloyd era, both defense and offense were ripped with equal ferocity.  But then ripping everything about a winning program in malaise was the cool thing to do.  Then the cool thing to do was to love the RR offense.  But Brady Hoke is not cool.  So now what is the cool thing to do?  Pine back to RR?  MOAR SHOTGUN PLZ?

The funny thing is, for those of us old enough to know, the thing that has made Michigan, well...Michigan, was not so much "off tackle right" or "QB waggle" but defense.  Stout, suffocating defense.  Its what defined us.  I came of age in my love for Michigan football in '97 just as I was finishing up grad school.  That is the image of Michigan football seared into my mind.  We were also "Drop Back QB U"   We were a feeder school for pro athletes.  With Mattison back and Borges here I get the sense that we will become "Michigan" again.  Don't get me wrong, I liked RR.  I liked his spread.  It was funky and cool and advanced stats friendly.  But I like Hoke more, in that for him it is about Michigan first and his "system" second.  In fact his system is not really a system.  Its about teaching fundamentals, managing the program well, being a shaper of young men and letting his co-ordiantors do the "system" thing.  The whole approach just seems more "Michigan."  Will it succeed more?  Time will tell, but I like the early returns.

What does this mean for Brian?  Well, I think he has to start learning so he can start teaching and analyzing.  He has to learn what Borges does and what Mattison does and then reviewing the film in the UFR and in other articles begin teaching the rest of us the concepts that they are using in their systems.  For me, I know a bit about the west coast offence, but I am looking forward to learning more about it and thus to recognize what we are seeing, much in the way we learned how to recognize the scrape exchange.  I would also love to learn more about the blitz concepts that Mattison uses and has used so that I can watch the game more intelligently.  That, I beleive, was what spawned this blog, a frustration that no one in the main stream media took the time to do this kind of analysis.  We need to get beyond the cliches (Borges has to run more spread option plays to take advantage of Denard) to delve into the schemes and data that get beyond hypothesis to actual facts.  We have glommed onto this blog not just because we are Michigan fans, but because we are "intelligent" football fans.  We need that intelligence back.

"We will be a swarming defense however we line up" -- Greg Mattison

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September 13th, 2011 at 10:20 AM | Amen to that.  I am not sure, (Score:5 Normal)
ForestCityBlue
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Amen to that.  I am not sure, though, that the problem has been consistency or hypocrisy, but a lack of research based learning.  When we did get numbers, they were presented to bolster a philosophy (MOAR SHOTGUN PLZ) and thus suspect.  When RR came to town we spent the summer learning the basics of the read option run based spread.  Then I think Brian fell in love with RR the offensive tactician and the sick numbers his offence could put up and its total contrast to Lloyd Ball.  Brian was never objective about his disdain for Lloydball or his new found love for a new, intelligent, funky and dare we say "cool" offense. 

Then RR got himself fired. 

Then the "cool" pick went the NFL, the "crazy"  pick chose to stay in the south, and we ended up with the guy singing the Proclaimers song.  He was pining for what was.  We were no longer cool.  It looked like Lloydball was back.  (MANBALL=Lloydball=Boball)

But instead of dispassioned analysis of what to expect with an Al Borges offense or a Greg Mattison defense, we got the spring/summer of emo.  There were no teaching pieces showing us the basics of the west coast offense and how it works and what Borges has done in the past to modify it, we got Free Press like analysis that said, Hoke/Borges will have to adapt to the players they have.  It just sounded sad and pathetic to see Brian become the people he criticized for saying the same things three years ago.

He is slowly emerging from his shell, but we are still not getting pieces resembling the level of analysis that we got during the RR era where great pains were taken to show frame by frame what a genius RR was, how much smarter he was than everyone.  We are still not getting the same level of teaching or analysis, but it is starting to return.  I guess this is what love does to people...

"We will be a swarming defense however we line up" -- Greg Mattison

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September 13th, 2011 at 10:38 AM | "ended up with the guy singing the Proclaimers song" (Score:5 Normal)
M-Wolverine
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I love this.  This is the wit I expect from this blog. Not the "fuck you" reactions.

"I love him, he's a great coach, he's a great mentor, he's a great friend. He's every single thing you want a college coach to be, and he does it flawlessly." -David Molk

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September 13th, 2011 at 1:47 PM | I Agree (Score:1)
Deep Under Cover
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I am wondering, as I did not follow this blog the first year RR was head coach, but did Brian criticize RR for not adapting the offense better for the talent he had?  The option read is not very effective with Sherithreet in the backfield...

Deep under cover in THE enemy's territory

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September 13th, 2011 at 7:52 PM | Thank you for this (Score:1)
SanDiegoWolverine
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or at least the part about waiting for awesome defensive and offensive analysis this summer about what to expect and not really getting much of it.

T

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September 13th, 2011 at 10:31 AM | Respectfully submitted (Score:2 Normal)
profitgoblue
Joined: 09/01/2009
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I understand your position but it is impossible to separate the mind from the heart, regardless of the profession.  Reporters all have bias and I respectfully submit that a blog created by a fan is as close to "passionate" reporting as it gets.  Your point is well taken but misplaced.  Like Brian, I got the feeling that the Dilithium is fading and it feels sad to me, anyway.  Maybe it is better for this to happen and maybe Denard is much happier in this offense than the last.  If the latter is true, then my sadness goes away immediately.  But a perfect example of the fading can be seen in Denard's frustration when Hoke decided to down the ball at the end of the first half.  I'd never seen him express his frustration like that before and it made me sad.  But that feeling/emotion only matters for us fans - the game on the field and the decision-making in the coaches' offices cannot take as much stock in fan emotion as we do.  Nevertheless, fans feel and you cannot divorce the two.  Doing so would be tragic.

 

Disgruntled former moderator.  I got a lot of problems with you people!

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September 13th, 2011 at 10:47 AM | I have no problem with emotion influences opinion (Score:5 Normal)
M-Wolverine
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It just looks bad when you've been on a soapbox decrying it for so long from the mainstream media, or fans who don't/won't look at the "cold, hard facts".  I rarely have a problem with opinions...just double standards.

And I think what this post shows is not that the offense is better than last year. It shows that it's really not that different at the same points of the season, and no one can know if it's better, worse, or the same, and it's folly to think any of them (including "Dilithium has faded"). Because in games it may have been more prolific, but in others it wasn't. Denard is kinda a high risk, high reward player.  You take the good with the bad.  And yeah, it'd be great if he put up sick numbers for his last two years. But I'd rather he gets a chance to win his last two years. And that probably has a lot more to do with the defense than what he gets to do. He did a lot last year. It still wasn't fun.  If you want to lay blame for Denard not having as great a career as he could have, blame the architects of the defense.  It will have far more to do with what Denard's legacy is than what plays Borges calls will.

"I love him, he's a great coach, he's a great mentor, he's a great friend. He's every single thing you want a college coach to be, and he does it flawlessly." -David Molk

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September 13th, 2011 at 10:55 AM | I changed on you (Score:2 Normal)
profitgoblue
Joined: 09/01/2009
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I rethought my post and changed it up on you while you were typing, I think.

You are right.  Definitely.  I think I struggle with the emotion/passion side of it than the cold-hard-facts aspect.  At the end of the day (and this will sound silly), it really only matters whether Denard is enjoying his time and feeling like his abilities are being maximized.  If Denard is happy, I'm happy.  And I think Brian might feel a little bit the same.  Its hard not to think about it in those terms, assess the offense in terms of whether Denard's abilities are being maximized, because Denard is the face of the program.

 

Disgruntled former moderator.  I got a lot of problems with you people!

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September 13th, 2011 at 11:05 AM | Nothing wrong with the emotion (Score:3 Normal)
M-Wolverine
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You've been die hard in the Rich camp, and wear it on your sleeve. And that's fine.  I've never had any problem with your posts over it, because there's nothing wrong with feeling it. Just like I really don't think Brian wants us to fail to be right (though I DO think he has mentally prepared an "I told you so"), most of us really wanted Rich to succeed. I'm still not positive he couldn't. I just think the chance of it in January weren't worth the risks to the program (and longer failure, or non-improvement which can be just as deadly), or frankly, to the man. Because without a really great turnaround I didn't see happening with this defense, I think it would have been a horrible year for him and his family. A year of hot seat. Hurt recruiting. Scrutiny.  Hopefully he's learned from his mistakes, and will use it in his next job, in a place that doesn't have those problems, and others beyond his control.

But there's nothing wrong with lamenting failure. It's not a proud moment in Michigan history. We try not to fire coaches. There was no "he resigned" nonsense you could even attribute to this.  And wishing things could have worked, or liking some of the stuff we're losing...that's all ok too.  It's just this insistence that everything is and will go into the crapper now (because things were so great before) even as saying "Caveat- I knew he had to be fired" is past old. Other do it...you haven't, so no one freaks out over your feelings.

"I love him, he's a great coach, he's a great mentor, he's a great friend. He's every single thing you want a college coach to be, and he does it flawlessly." -David Molk

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September 13th, 2011 at 11:13 AM | Agreed (Score:4 Normal)
profitgoblue
Joined: 09/01/2009
MGoPoints: 19415

I can honestly say that I'm glad Rodriguez is gone, for all the reasons you've listed and more.  No question about that.  I think Brian and I and others will only miss his offense.  And I think that is a very important distinction to make.  In other words, I am a spread offense supporter, NOT a Rodriguez supporter.  I think it maximizes Denard's abilities and plays right into the offense's strengths this year.

That said, I haven't even touched the discussion about the defense.  It may very well be that the spread option made life exponentially harder on the defense the past few years.  I think Rodriguez could have worked hard to protect the defense by slowing the game down on the other side of the ball but he was unable to do so and, as such, probably exposed the defense even more.  That's on him.  And maybe its why not running the spread option is so important this year.  But its still hard to watch the game slow down.  That fact was highlighted for me when Hoke chose to down the ball at the end of the second half and I'll be honest - it really upset me.  But things change and fans adapt (or should adapt) and I, for one, am doing it.

 

Disgruntled former moderator.  I got a lot of problems with you people!

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September 13th, 2011 at 12:36 PM | Brian has expressed concerns after the Notre Dame game (Score:1)
maizenbluenc
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It did look more rickety than the past two years. Yes, last year ND was rudderless while Crist cleared the cobwebs - so our win looked less rickety. The year before our defense looked a lot better early on in the season, and the win looked less rickety.

Somehow each of those past two years we exited beating the Irish and felt awesome, only to be beaten down in the B1G schedule.

So between ricketiness (admit it - this one looked a lot more like we should loose the game), and our previous two years experience in the B1G schedule after a bright start, and how the transition went for us last time - a lot of angst is understandable.

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September 13th, 2011 at 8:16 AM | Great Breakdown (Score:1)
LSAClassOf2000
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You really wouldn't think so by watching the game, but put this way, we were marginally improved on offense year-to-year in the ND game (which doesn't mean much overall), or at least more efficient. I'll always take the win, but this makes me feel better about it somehow. Hopefully, we can see a trend evolving as the season continues.

"Funny isn't it, how naughty dentists always make that one fatal mistake."

Follow the random tweets of a Michigan alum - http://twitter.com/#!/LorneEC3

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September 13th, 2011 at 9:21 AM | "Wouldn't think so by watching the game" (Score:1)
M Wolve
Joined: 09/04/2011
MGoPoints: 732

I think you have a point here that the poster is overlooking.  I cannot argue that after placing all of the pertinent stats in a chart, we had a better offensive performance this year.  But, what how would the two games (2010 v ND and 2011 v ND) compare through the first three quarters?  I think it would suggest that last year was more consistent throughout the game and we looked relatively awful this year.  Caveats of 1) there are actually 60 min in a football game, not 45 and 2) this is only one game definitely apply, however.  I'm not looking for 28 points every quarter, but if we develop a more consistent offense, I think that the data here suggests we can have just as successful year as last year on that side of the ball (with hopefully less empty drives). 

Bring back Keith Jackson

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September 13th, 2011 at 9:29 AM | Football game 60 minutes... (Score:4 Normal)
M-Wolverine
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Unless you're playing Western. In the rain.

"I love him, he's a great coach, he's a great mentor, he's a great friend. He's every single thing you want a college coach to be, and he does it flawlessly." -David Molk

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September 13th, 2011 at 9:46 AM | Developing a consistent offense. (Score:3 Normal)
Michigan Shirt
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Has anyone thought that maybe Borges needed this game more than anyone else. He saw with his own eyes how he can bottle up Denard with his play calling and how, when he lets Denard lose, the offense changes dramatically for the better. I have a feeling that Borges now has a good idea how to keep our team in games this year if MANBALL isn't working quite as well in the beginning. We can only hope he has learned this and that the defense never looses the game for us too early. I think this game is an eye opener for the coaches as well as us.

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September 13th, 2011 at 10:12 AM | Couldn't agree more. (Score:3 Normal)
Aequitas
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While a lot of posters are blaming Denard's "poor performance" early in the game as the reason the offense sputtered, I want to believe the coaches learned the most basic tenet of effective personnel management - put your people in the best situations for them to be successful.  Denard should not be put in the same situations that you would put Peyton Manning in.

This game was a win-win in that respect.  We get to enjoy one glorious year of silence from the Domers and the coaches get a chance to see what works and what doesn't.

"Do not disturb my circles."
 

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September 13th, 2011 at 10:31 AM | I agree with that (Score:5 Normal)
STW P. Brabbs
Joined: 08/27/2008
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And I'm not accusing you of this, but Denard is not immune from criticism either.  For instance, I think it's ridiculous to put the blame strictly on Borges for putting Denard in a bad position where he might throw a screen five yards over the head of his running back (which Brian did.)  Maybe that play, in isolation, isn't the most ideal way to take advantage of Denard's talents.  But he's a better QB than that, and the reason that play ended up an interception is because he absolutely lost focus/was tight as a drum the entire first half.  Players still have to play.

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September 13th, 2011 at 8:18 AM | shotgun vs under center (Score:2)
Mitch Cumstein
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I'm not sure how to go about doing this, without actually having a replay of the entire game handy with lots of time, but is there a good way to look at effectiveness of either being in a shotgun or under center formation?  Watching the game live, it seemed like a lot of our best plays were from under center.  Obviously, the variability here is large considering the feast or famine nature of our offense this game.

"A flute with no holes is not a flute. A donut with no hole is a danish"

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September 13th, 2011 at 8:28 AM | Excellent (Score:5 Normal)
myantoniobass d...
myantoniobass denardisfast's picture
Joined: 09/30/2010
MGoPoints: 519

Great read.  I'm more aware of the leadership on the field-something that can't be quantified in a chart.  I saw that leadership the last two weeks in Hoke, Borges, Mattison, and Denard on the field.  Yes Denard struggled early, and his nerves were reminiscient of MSU last year at home.  Except this year he brought the team back and played an excellent 4th quarter.  And our defense, despite giving up that TD drive in the end, kept us in the game with 3rd down stops and turnovers.  

AND unlike MSU and other games-we're scoring TDs in the red zone!

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September 13th, 2011 at 8:34 AM | Well written (Score:1)
Johnny Blood
Johnny Blood's picture
Joined: 12/22/2010
MGoPoints: 492

I agree with you completely.  We need to be more patient and see how this thing plays out.  Yes, the transition will provide awkward moments, but we all should have known that coming in.  I was on the liveblog during the game and had to give up during the first quarter due to all the negativity.

The other thing that has really been bothering me these last few years and again this year is the ripping into the younger guys on the team.  In better years (which I see coming down the road), they wouldn't even be on the field.  However due to lack of talent / depth, they are forced to grow up right in front of us, which can be very trying at times.  Sure, they'll make some good plays now and then, but in the end they are still FR and SO and except for the rare exception shouldn't even be on the field yet. 

I think I'm losing my point here... but really just wanted to remind everyone we have a great group of players, a coaching team who I think has us headed in the right direction, and a bright future.  It may take a few years, but soon we'll be rolling in BIG titles again and contending for the MNC.

Third generation Michigan alum

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September 13th, 2011 at 8:46 AM | DR (Score:3 Normal)
Schembo
Schembo's picture
Joined: 01/06/2011
MGoPoints: 915

I think one of things that gets a little lost when people critique Denard or the offense scheme is that Robinson is only starting his 13/14th game?  Really, he should be in his 2nd year of eligibility if he would have been given a redshirt which he needed.  Add to that fact is that we don't have a great running game at the moment.  That's going to result in some inconsistency at times.

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September 13th, 2011 at 9:37 AM | Yes, I use to wonder and (Score:2 Normal)
gordie bell
gordie bell's picture
Joined: 03/15/2009
MGoPoints: 7965

Yes, I use to wonder and criticize Michael Vick redshirting, but now I see the light, Denard should have redshirted his first season, especially in light of the fact that Tate was healthy for pretty much the entire year. Sheridan could have played against Iowa  when Tate got knocked out. Oh well, just have to enjoy the next 2 seasons with Denard.

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September 13th, 2011 at 8:47 AM | coaching staff (Score:1)
TorontoBlue
TorontoBlue's picture
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 630

I have more faith this year in our coaching staff to coach these guys up as the season progresses.  That's the key difference for me going forward - in the recent past our guys made no adjustments during the game or at the half.  I have a lot more faith now that we will adjust to the other team's schemes and also that our players will skew upwards as the season progresses - faith I didn't have for the last several years.

GO BLUE!

All In Worldwide

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September 13th, 2011 at 8:48 AM | Denard after dentist (Score:3 Flamebait)
ClearEyesFullHart
ClearEyesFullHart's picture
Joined: 09/09/2011
MGoPoints: 804

Lets not kid ourselves.  Brian has been waiting to post his scathing "first loss" piece for several months now, and it has eaten a hole in his harddrive to the extent that a portion of it has leaked out even after an emotional victory.

Be patient Brian.  Eventually Michigan will lose a game.

But at this moment in time, lets also be honest about the score.  Under the Lights was a huge, huge success for David Brandon.  No one, save for Brian(who had had enough of pom poms and rock music) wanted to leave.  Recruits saw that atmosphere on the sideline.  Hell, future recruits saw it on TV.  That score is Brady Hoke/David Brandon 2, Brian Cook/Rich Rodriguez nothing.  Just a thought Brian, you should probably keep your mouth shut until you at least get on the board.

 

Omnes i facere est vincere 
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September 13th, 2011 at 9:07 AM | Really? (Score:1 Normal)
Huntington Wolverine
Joined: 10/26/2009
MGoPoints: 2375

Who died and made you the creator of one of the most successful sports blogs in existence?  

 

You don't like the content, get the fuck off his court!

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September 13th, 2011 at 9:24 AM | I agree!  It's so much more (Score:5 Normal)
Fuzzy Dunlop
Fuzzy Dunlop's picture
Joined: 09/22/2009
MGoPoints: 4175

I agree!  It's so much more interesting when we blindly agree with what our fearless leader has to say and forego annoying "debates" and "discussion".  Ugh.  Disagreement is so last year.

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September 13th, 2011 at 9:47 AM | This isn't disagreeing, it's (Score:2 Normal)
Needs
Joined: 08/05/2008
MGoPoints: 4162

That isn't disagreeing. It's putting ideas into Brian's head/words into his mouth and then arguing against those. It's the worst form of straw-manism. 

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September 13th, 2011 at 10:31 AM | Agree completely. Especially (Score:1)
justingoblue
justingoblue's picture
Joined: 11/16/2010
MGoPoints: 10871

Agree completely. Especially after OSU and the Gator Bowl last year, and Duke, UMD to a lesser extent. I would never accuse Brian of waiting for a loss. Under any circumstances. Ever.

RR could coach each team we played from here until 2012, and I still would have to see some concrete proof that Brian was looking for Michigan to lose, because I've never seen that side of him from reading anything he's ever written. If someone has evidence to the contrary, I'd love to read it.

Go Blue!

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September 13th, 2011 at 11:35 AM | Isn't this What Brian has been doing with the offense (Score:5 Normal)
blue in dc
Joined: 01/23/2011
MGoPoints: 222

Brian has been putting forthbthis manball strawman since last January. it's inconsistent with what Borgess has done in the past and what he has constantly said he'd do.

You can be blue and still be green

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