I admire the use of precipice in the post. Bravo. Thanks for the post as well.
the season has truly begun now
I admire the use of precipice in the post. Bravo. Thanks for the post as well.
But they all will have potential for disaster (even Illinois can save face against us. It is a game of emotion.) The final word is that Mich holds their fate in their own hands.
Competition works for QB selection. Forcier got some time vs DSU but I would like to know where his head is at wrt to learning from the Iowa game. I'm sure he is working on added plays for Penn State, but I'm wondering if there is learning or for that matter if the concussion is good to go. On both counts I'm hopeful.
I for one am happy with the effort from this team.
It's good to be one win away from (albeit a medicore) bowl game. I think this team has the ability to win every game it plays from here on out, but because of youth and a persistent lack of errors (see turnovers, and late game heroics) it won't happen.
I'm still thinking 7-5. Wisconsin will not be an easy game for us, unless Tolzien goes Ricky Stanzi on us and throws pick-sixes.
I think they are a different team with Navarro Bowman and Sean Lee back. They just held one of the best passing attacks in the Big Ten to 138 total yards and 7 first downs. Decker had just one catch.
I think we may fare better against OSU.
And is it duckets or ducats? Or is this going with the Cabrini-Green theme?
that I have only spoken the word and never spelled it. It never occurred to me that "ducats" was the proper spelling, but I am sure it is. Less embarrassing than the reverse though, which is where you have read, but never said, a word, and then promptly mispronounce it in a big meeting or on a date or insert embarrassing place to mispronounce word here.
you didn't spell it "Ducketts!"
And yeah, the reverse you cite has happened to this engineer who reads a lot of stuff, but didn't necessarily know how to pronounce:
august (not the month)
Have fun mocking me! :)
I take it
august is the pronounced the same as the month
macabre is ma cab ree
and croats is pronounced like coats(jacket) but with an 'r'?
Personally having read quite a bit as well, i was quite surprised to see that Hors 'd Ouerves was NOT spelled orderves. It only took me 30 years and probably 20 years of reading the words to connect it with the pronunciation....
I admire the tutoring dedication. I'm starting to get involved with a similar program in Detroit. Also, nice post.
I think we need to keep Denard at quarterback for two reasons, to keep Tate hungry and make him a better player, and also to develop Denard into a better passer in case of a situation where he ends up starting.
Forcier is unlikely to make it through the next 6 games without losing time due to injury.
Nice diary - thanks for a good read. Go Blue!
...does not have "a solid record of its own with multiple wins over ranked-ish teams." None of ND's victories came against opponents that are ranked now, or that were ranked when the Irish played them. Every team the Irish beat has at least three losses. They only barely beat MSU (4-3), Purdue (2-5), and Washington (3-4). Their only easy win was against a non-BCS team, Nevada (3-3).
Both MSU and Washington have spent time ranked in the top 25. If we had beaten MSU, it would be our second most significant win. The main point is that ND is not as bad as I had hoped or thought. You have to give them credit for not folding up against SC. I actually don't like Shamu and wish he would be fired just because it is more interesting when ND is on the rise. But I think they are going to be "good" enough this year to help him keep his job in 2010.
I do not think MSU or Washington has been ranked at any point this season. Purdue and Nevada obviously haven't.
Washington was ranked after they beat USC
MSU has never been ranked this season. If we'd beaten them, they'd have dropped to 1-4 at that point. Yes, it might have been our second-most significant win, but only because ND is the only team of any note that we've beaten.
I say we will go 3-2 over the last 5 games with a win over OSU.
to God's ears. I'd rather go 3-2 and beat OSU than 4-1 and lose to them.
I think this us quite possible as a scenario, although I happen to think you've switched a victory and defeat. I think we will beat Purdue and lose to Illinois. But as for this statement:
"For whatever reason, I think RichRod has a preference for Denard and has been playing Tate principally based on Tate's excellent on-field performance. "
I agree with it wholeheartedly. I has struck me that I've never seen RR yell at Denard, he is always most encouraging. I know that isn't the most convincing evidence of your point, but I think RR sees huge potential in Denard (i.e. next Pat White) and likely feels a DR that is great at running and even average at passing will run his offense better than a great pass/ok run TF. Next year I think DR starts and Tate becomes the change of pace role player Denard is today.
I think where RichRod's head was at going into the season was that Forcier would be a bit of a place-holder while Denard had time to learn the playbook. And I am not saying that I disagree with his assessment -- when I look at Denard, I see the potential, especially on the arm strength, which Tate candidly lacks. But Forcier's excellent early performances wrong-footed Rodriguez somewhat, in a good way. I don't have an anti-Denard bias. I am just saying that at some point you have to adjust to facts on the ground, and Forcier doesn't look like a Freshman much of the time he plays. Denard still does. I agree with many of the posts that suggest that competition is, and has been, good for the two guys. I am arguing that at some point, the threat of the hook starts getting into a guy's head and interfering with his rhythm. I think Tate has earned the right to be the starter and play the overwhelming majority of series.
But disagree with this: "I think Tate has earned the right to be the starter and play the overwhelming majority of series."
I should be more clear....I don't disagree that he has earned the right, he has. What I disagree with is your assertion that he doesn't get that already. DR didn't play the entire Iowa game until those last two drives. He played very little in both the MSU or ND games as well. What games have you watched that give you the impression that Tate doesn't get the overwhelming majority of reps during the games? Other than DSU he has, and most agreed that this was a good time to get DR more playing time in case TF goes down due to injury.
Finally, while I agree that Tate has looked great at times this year, it is incorrect to say that he hasn't looked like a freshman (and why shouldn't he....he is). During conference play he has certainly looked like a freshman to me and has been throwing far to many passes to the defense than I would like. If he continues doing this against defenses like PSU and OSU we will see a couple more 5 turnover games. He has thrown a lot of balls at the defense that they should have caught and didn't. Tate could easily have at least 4 or 5 more INT's in the stat column.
All that said, I have been very impressed with him and he makes it easy to forget that he is a freshman. For a freshman he has been outstanding and has changed my preconceived notions about how he would play in college football. I just have to keep in mind that he is a freshman and these mistakes are giong to happen. This way I won't get so upset and critical of him when they do.
that in the MSU game, you saw Denard come out in the second quarter (I may be wrong), but definitely in the 3rd Quarter, late. I think that the issue is a bit nuanced, as even I have said I am OK with the "change of pace" use of Denard. So there is judgment involved in deciding when Denard is being used "legitimately" (in my book) as a change of pace, or "unfairly" (in my book) as a spur to Forcier. My judgment in the MSU game was that it was the latter.
Also, I will have to go back and check when I have a minute, but are you sure Denard didn't have an earlier series against Iowa? I thought he did.
I'm not 100% sure as I have quadruplet 15 month olds running around and it is hard to watch the entire game, but I didn't see him on the field until that time.
Also, I am not really sure why he shouldn't be used as a spur to TF. RR's whole philosophy is that players compete for playing time, and if someone isn'tplaying as well as they can/should what is the problem with yanking them for a series or two to give them time to regroup?
Having said that, I think Tate has gotten a pretty long leash to this point in the season anyway. If DR was used to be a spur he would have seen far more action than he has to this point IME. I have watched TF throw many passes that he had no business throwing and were not interceptions only because the DB's had butter fingers. I can't imagine that many people that have watched all the games this year would think TF hasn't had a fair chance at solidifying his position on the team. This is all just my e-pinion though.
I guess where I come out is that in the early going, it seems fair to say that Tate shouldn't assume the position is his. After a while, though, the "DR trigger" could be seen as undermining confidence. Tate has absolutely had some sequences where he ran around like a chicken with his head cut off and then threw it to the opposing team. But even against MSU, a game that was a difficult one offensively until the last four minutes, my view was that Tate was playing OK and was more victimized by drops than by bad passes. The only game where I think Tate can be described as below expectations for his level would be the Iowa game. I can't and don't discount your points -- I just make a different draw on what impact I think DR might be having on Tate's confidence.
I guess we just disagree on how DR should be used, which is fine of course (not everyone agrees). You have valid points to back up your opinion and the fact that it remained civil is nice. +1 for you my friend.
As a former coach, I was harder on those who I expect more from!!!
Notre Dame has not beaten a team with a winning record all season. Actually last year I don't think they beat a team with a winning record either. Hawaii may have been 7-5 or 6-6, but that win is not exactly a feather to stick in your cap.
I think that, and Hawaii, are their only victories over bowl teams in several years. They beat MSU, who may finish over .500. That's about it.
ND this year is a strange 'feather' in our cap, and yes, it's the best win we have by a sizeable margin. With healthy Emu and healthy starting WRs I think they are pretty decent, and scary offensively. That's the team we had to play most of the game. With the injuries they became less of a quality win, but I don't think that diminishes our win against them.
We have no other wins against anything like quality opponents. Our next opponent, Penn State also has just one mediocre win - this past weekend against Minnesota.
My question is, did your brother mentor his student on the proper tense usage or not using a preposition at the end of a sentence? Other than that, I think that 3-2 is very realistic/probable. We will see how it turns out!
This is the sort of grammar nonsense up with which I will not put.
I didn't get to see the D State game on the B-10 network and the stream I found was too choppy to watch. Reading Tim's report reinforces the good feeling I've had over the past few weeks, including the losses. This program is moving forward. At the end of Lloyd's time I think we all thought that the program had gone as far as it could with the tools it had.
The matchup this week with PSU is an example of a program that has gone as far as it can go with the tools it has. They will never contend for a national championship with Joe & Company at the helm again. They are only going to be at best a 2nd or 3rd contender for the B-10 and when Michigan and one other team steps up they will drop to 3rd or 4th.
I'm in the heart of PSU country and I've noticed that the fans are even starting to believe this. Last year I told them that Joe can put together a great team once every 4 years, then they fade back to mediocrity. Now the same thoughts are starting to appear in the papers again. OSU's system may be antiquated, but they are the B-10 favorite nearly every year. Hopefully that changes starting next year.
PSU however, is just antiquated. They're not as good as last year and next year they will be worse than this year. It's the way of the Lion. I know because I'm an alum.
Wisconsin is extremely tough to play on their field, so I see that as a loss. Purdue and Penn State are tossups to me, it depends on how the breaks go. I see UM winning one of those two. Then, for Ohio State, I boldly predict a win over a team that can't shoot straight offensively; I mean, they are frackin' TERRIBLE. Michigan has enough balance to keep their D guessing, and that will be the winning edge. So there, a Sparty fan says you're going 8-4. Maybe now it's time to be afraid, very very afraid.
I don't have a game prediction, but if you can follow the Purdue template of forcing OSU to play from behind, UM might very well win that game. OSU hasn't shown the ability to put up lots of points, and no matter how good the defense is it won't be able to hold the water for the offense forever.
So I guess if there's no improvement in the offense by The Game, it's at least a toss up if not a slight UM lean. If the offense finds its balls and puts pressure on UM to score a lot of points, the defense might be able to strangle you guys.
Either way, it looks a hell of a lot less one-sided than it did 3 weeks ago.
I felt from the beginning of the season that how M did against ND would set the tone for the rest of the season. ND is not a great team but the psychological boost was huge from that win. On the other hand, a loss to ND early on would have had the opposite effect. I felt a win against ND would probably lead to a season around 8-4. At this point that is certainly doable. Also, based on how M has performed thusfar this season, I think it's safe to say that M will not be blown-out in any of their remaining games. Another factor that needs to be taken into account is the expected improvement of the team in the second half of the season. Other teams will also improve but M should improve at a faster rate due to the learning curve of a younger team. FWIW--my prediction for the reast of the season is a win against Illinois and Purdue and one more win against either Penn State, Wisconsin or OSU. That would result in 8-4. Anything beyond that is all gravy.
... and player development.
100% agree, even if we only end up 6-6. Illinois looks like it's going in the toilet, but given that the game is there, a victory is far from certain. It's still early in RR's tenure, but so far in two seasons he has just one victory on the road. If you can't win away from home, you're never going to challenge for a conference championship, much less qualify for a BCS game.
Sagarin's methodology also projects that Mich should be at least very competitive in each of its upcoming games. (Sagarin isn't the end-all and be-all, but it is a well known, objective methodology.)
Current Sagarin rankings.
Rank Team Rating W L SOS (Rank)
34 Michigan 77.91 5 2 65.92( 90)
Rank Team Rating W L SOS (Rank) Prediction
21 Penn State 80.42 6 1 63.65(106) -1 Fav(Live +4)
125 @Illinois 59.30 1 5 70.70( 34) -15 Favorite
76 Purdue 68.99 2 5 73.26( 23) -12.5 Favorite
32 @Wisconsin 78.18 5 2 72.08( 29) +4 Dog
19 Ohio State 80.77 5 2 70.65( 35) -0.5 Favorite
While I think Sagarin's methodology likes us a little more than it should (my gut), that doesn't look like a 1-4 finish to me.
I must confess that I am a bit gobsmacked that they have us as a favorite against OSU and PSU.
Low expectations are usually achieved. For me...I'm with Stevie Brown. Michigan and Iowa win out. Iowa plays for the National Championship. Michigan goes to the Rose Bowl.