By The Numbers - Wisconsin Preview
All numbers are points per game vs an average team. They are adjusted
for strength of opponent. No 1AA games or stats are included.
For more detailed questions on how the
numbers come about, click here.
The first matchup, where the rubber meets the road. This is clearly a huge battle of strength vs strength. If Michigan is going to win on Saturday, they have to find success in the running game. With some unique elements to Michigan's running game, there is at least the potential that they could provide a real challenge to the stout Wisconsin rush defense.
Michigan O: +3 (20)
Ignoring what appears to be a major outlier in the Illinois game, Michigan's rush offense has had their three best Big 10 performances over the last three weeks. In fact, if we selectively choose those three games, Michigan's run offense averages out to a spectacular +7.2, which if maintained over the course of the season, would be good for third nationally behind Georgia Tech and Nevada. Now that is obviously being very selective, but at the same time, there is nothing in the other 8 games that indicates Illinois was anything but an outlier and Iowa, PSU and Purdue have all been very solid games.
Wisconsin D: +3 (15)
This is a Wisconsin defense that essentially has not had a bad day of rushing defense all year. With that said, you can see that their overall value is highly inflated because MAC and WAC teams can't stop Northern Illinois and Fresno State on the ground and Wisconsin could. In the Big 10, Wisconsin is a good but not great +1.1, good for about 5th in the Big 10. Don't get me wrong, this is a very good run defense, but some of the numbers can be a bit misleading.
There is a huge challenge and what I believe to be a real opportunity for Michigan on the ground. If Wisconsin wins here, game over, if Michigan wins here, game on.
Michigan O: +1 (49)
Michigan's pass offense appears to be headed in the right direction. Against Illinois and Purdue Michigan posted its best passing performances since September. +3 and +5 are good but not great numbers, but Michigan's offense will need to find points and opportunity wherever it can and a third straight game in the +'s could come in very handy.
Wisconsin D: +0 (56)
It has been a very mixed bag in pass defense for the Badgers this year. A great game against Purdue and host of other solid performances have been tempered with last week's dreadful showing against Indiana and poor games against both Iowa and Minnesota. The Fresno and State games both netted out in the middle, but even those games featured quite a few yards, TD's and interceptions.
There will be no easy wins on the offensive side of the ball for Michigan this week, but Wisconsin has demonstrated that their defense can produce a wide range of outcomes, opening the door for Michigan to look good until...
Michigan D: -2 (103)
This one doesn't look so hot. Still sitting in the triple digit national rankings after the debacle at Illinois, this is not the opponent to have an off day against. Because...
Wisconsin O: +3 (13)
Playing the selective game here, as well, if you remove the Iowa game Wisconsin is averaging about +6.5 in the those four games which is right where Michigan has been removing its bad game. The only difference is that Michigan has to face the very good Wisconsin rush defense and Wisconsin gets to face something less than that.
Best case scenario here is probably a Penn State like performance where Wisconsin gets 150-200 yards but it takes 40+ carries to get there.
Michigan D: +1 (41)
This has been the one metric that has never felt quite right this year. The feeling is that surely this unit is much worse than 41st nationally. I have looked into this a lot and come up with a couple of ideas. There are a couple of things coming into play here. #1, started the year with a very strong September, putting up a big number against Western, holding our own against ND's 6th ranked passing game and then going 0 TD's 4 INT's over the next 3 games. #2, Warren's pick 6 against Iowa dramatically changed that game score. #3 and I think this is the biggest. The game of football is changing and tilting towards the pass. Performances in the past that would have seemed poor, are now closer to average as the passing games have evolved and a play calling balance shifts more towards the pass.
Wisconsin O: +0 (54)
Since the blowup against Michigan State in the Big 10 opener, Wisconsin has been on a bit of a rough stretch through the air. They have had a 2/7 TD/INT ratio and averaged nearly -3 over the last five games.
I don't consider anything a sure thing the way Michigan's pass defense has looked lately, but this is a Wisconsin team that doesn't show any major indications of being able to greatly exploit it either.
Predictions
Wisconsin 35 Michigan 27
Wisconsin's rushing game and a bit of home field advantage provide the difference. There appear to be opportunities for Michigan to close the gap, but the gap between these teams right now is very real. Has the potential to be a very interesting game.
Elsewhere
Penn State 35 Indiana 13
Illinois 24 NW 21
Ohio St 17 Iowa 7
Purdue 28 Michigan St 31
Rush Offense
The first matchup, where the rubber meets the road. This is clearly a huge battle of strength vs strength. If Michigan is going to win on Saturday, they have to find success in the running game. With some unique elements to Michigan's running game, there is at least the potential that they could provide a real challenge to the stout Wisconsin rush defense.
Michigan O: +3 (20)
Defense | Week | Value | Rush | Yards | TD |
Western Michigan | 1 | 0.3 | 50 | 242 | 1 |
Notre Dame | 2 | 4.9 | 36 | 199 | 2 |
Eastern Michigan | 3 | 13.3 | 37 | 399 | 6 |
Indiana | 4 | -2.5 | 47 | 153 | 3 |
Michigan State | 5 | -3.4 | 25 | 61 | 0 |
Iowa | 6 | 9.2 | 43 | 190 | 3 |
Penn State | 8 | 4.5 | 33 | 134 | 1 |
Illinois | 9 | -11.5 | 38 | 129 | 1 |
Purdue | 10 | 7.9 | 39 | 240 | 4 |
Ignoring what appears to be a major outlier in the Illinois game, Michigan's rush offense has had their three best Big 10 performances over the last three weeks. In fact, if we selectively choose those three games, Michigan's run offense averages out to a spectacular +7.2, which if maintained over the course of the season, would be good for third nationally behind Georgia Tech and Nevada. Now that is obviously being very selective, but at the same time, there is nothing in the other 8 games that indicates Illinois was anything but an outlier and Iowa, PSU and Purdue have all been very solid games.
Wisconsin D: +3 (15)
Offense | Week | Value | Rush | Yards | TD |
Northern Illinois | 1 | 10.0 | 31 | 118 | 2 |
Fresno State | 2 | 6.7 | 37 | 181 | 0 |
Michigan State | 4 | -0.1 | 19 | 101 | 0 |
Minnesota | 5 | 1.5 | 22 | 80 | 1 |
Ohio State | 6 | 2.7 | 25 | 113 | 0 |
Iowa | 7 | 1.0 | 36 | 87 | 1 |
Purdue | 9 | 0.5 | 24 | 90 | 0 |
Indiana | 10 | 1.2 | 25 | 70 | 1 |
This is a Wisconsin defense that essentially has not had a bad day of rushing defense all year. With that said, you can see that their overall value is highly inflated because MAC and WAC teams can't stop Northern Illinois and Fresno State on the ground and Wisconsin could. In the Big 10, Wisconsin is a good but not great +1.1, good for about 5th in the Big 10. Don't get me wrong, this is a very good run defense, but some of the numbers can be a bit misleading.
There is a huge challenge and what I believe to be a real opportunity for Michigan on the ground. If Wisconsin wins here, game over, if Michigan wins here, game on.
Pass Offense
Neither team has stood out here as either exceptionally good or exceptionally bad.Michigan O: +1 (49)
Defense | Week | Value | Yards | TD | INT | Att | Comp |
Western Michigan | 1 | 8.0 | 197 | 3 | 1 | 28 | 15 |
Notre Dame | 2 | 0.9 | 231 | 2 | 1 | 35 | 25 |
Eastern Michigan | 3 | -7.8 | 49 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 9 |
Indiana | 4 | 4.4 | 216 | 2 | 1 | 26 | 15 |
Michigan State | 5 | -3.4 | 180 | 2 | 1 | 34 | 19 |
Iowa | 6 | 0.9 | 124 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 11 |
Penn State | 8 | -5.3 | 114 | 0 | 2 | 38 | 18 |
Illinois | 9 | 2.7 | 247 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 17 |
Purdue | 10 | 4.8 | 190 | 1 | 0 | 28 | 18 |
Michigan's pass offense appears to be headed in the right direction. Against Illinois and Purdue Michigan posted its best passing performances since September. +3 and +5 are good but not great numbers, but Michigan's offense will need to find points and opportunity wherever it can and a third straight game in the +'s could come in very handy.
Wisconsin D: +0 (56)
Offense | Week | Value | Yards | TD | INT | Att | Comp |
Northern Illinois | 1 | 3.2 | 153 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 18 |
Fresno State | 2 | 2.3 | 287 | 4 | 3 | 40 | 23 |
Michigan State | 4 | -0.8 | 384 | 4 | 3 | 48 | 26 |
Minnesota | 5 | -7.4 | 239 | 1 | 1 | 34 | 19 |
Ohio State | 6 | 3.4 | 71 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 7 |
Iowa | 7 | -4.9 | 205 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 19 |
Purdue | 9 | 15.2 | 59 | 0 | 1 | 36 | 12 |
Indiana | 10 | -12.5 | 316 | 3 | 2 | 36 | 26 |
It has been a very mixed bag in pass defense for the Badgers this year. A great game against Purdue and host of other solid performances have been tempered with last week's dreadful showing against Indiana and poor games against both Iowa and Minnesota. The Fresno and State games both netted out in the middle, but even those games featured quite a few yards, TD's and interceptions.
There will be no easy wins on the offensive side of the ball for Michigan this week, but Wisconsin has demonstrated that their defense can produce a wide range of outcomes, opening the door for Michigan to look good until...
Rush Defense
...uh oh.Michigan D: -2 (103)
Offense | Week | Value | Rush | Yards | TD |
Western Michigan | 1 | 3.6 | 21 | 45 | 0 |
Notre Dame | 2 | -3.6 | 29 | 159 | 1 |
Eastern Michigan | 3 | -4.9 | 46 | 192 | 2 |
Indiana | 4 | -6.1 | 32 | 209 | 3 |
Michigan State | 5 | -1.7 | 47 | 206 | 3 |
Iowa | 6 | -0.7 | 32 | 98 | 1 |
Penn State | 8 | 2.5 | 38 | 178 | 0 |
Illinois | 9 | -12.7 | 52 | 414 | 4 |
Purdue | 10 | 2.2 | 28 | 130 | 3 |
This one doesn't look so hot. Still sitting in the triple digit national rankings after the debacle at Illinois, this is not the opponent to have an off day against. Because...
Wisconsin O: +3 (13)
Defense | Week | Value | Rush | Yards | TD |
Northern Illinois | 1 | 3.7 | 38 | 152 | 3 |
Fresno State | 2 | -1.1 | 37 | 201 | 3 |
Michigan State | 4 | -1.7 | 49 | 197 | 1 |
Minnesota | 5 | 9.4 | 47 | 276 | 3 |
Ohio State | 6 | 3.6 | 38 | 157 | 1 |
Iowa | 7 | -0.5 | 29 | 107 | 1 |
Purdue | 9 | 7.3 | 50 | 279 | 2 |
Indiana | 10 | 5.8 | 52 | 294 | 3 |
Playing the selective game here, as well, if you remove the Iowa game Wisconsin is averaging about +6.5 in the those four games which is right where Michigan has been removing its bad game. The only difference is that Michigan has to face the very good Wisconsin rush defense and Wisconsin gets to face something less than that.
Best case scenario here is probably a Penn State like performance where Wisconsin gets 150-200 yards but it takes 40+ carries to get there.
Pass Defense
This match-up is nearly identical to the Michigan pass offense in that both teams are decidedly average.Michigan D: +1 (41)
Offense | Week | Value | Yards | TD | INT | Att | Comp |
Western Michigan | 1 | 9.7 | 251 | 1 | 2 | 41 | 25 |
Notre Dame | 2 | 1.3 | 336 | 3 | 0 | 42 | 25 |
Eastern Michigan | 3 | 0.7 | 100 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 16 |
Indiana | 4 | 1.9 | 258 | 0 | 1 | 39 | 22 |
Michigan State | 5 | 3.7 | 212 | 0 | 2 | 30 | 21 |
Iowa | 6 | 5.0 | 269 | 2 | 1 | 40 | 22 |
Penn State | 8 | -0.4 | 218 | 4 | 0 | 29 | 18 |
Illinois | 9 | -2.3 | 88 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 12 |
Purdue | 10 | -10.1 | 364 | 2 | 2 | 40 | 29 |
This has been the one metric that has never felt quite right this year. The feeling is that surely this unit is much worse than 41st nationally. I have looked into this a lot and come up with a couple of ideas. There are a couple of things coming into play here. #1, started the year with a very strong September, putting up a big number against Western, holding our own against ND's 6th ranked passing game and then going 0 TD's 4 INT's over the next 3 games. #2, Warren's pick 6 against Iowa dramatically changed that game score. #3 and I think this is the biggest. The game of football is changing and tilting towards the pass. Performances in the past that would have seemed poor, are now closer to average as the passing games have evolved and a play calling balance shifts more towards the pass.
Wisconsin O: +0 (54)
Defense | Week | Value | Yards | TD | INT | Att | Comp |
Northern Illinois | 1 | 4.3 | 281 | 1 | 2 | 25 | 18 |
Fresno State | 2 | 0.5 | 212 | 1 | 0 | 30 | 18 |
Michigan State | 4 | 11.8 | 243 | 4 | 0 | 31 | 19 |
Minnesota | 5 | -2.9 | 159 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 16 |
Ohio State | 6 | -7.4 | 211 | 0 | 2 | 51 | 32 |
Iowa | 7 | -3.6 | 123 | 0 | 3 | 29 | 19 |
Purdue | 9 | -2.4 | 101 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 12 |
Indiana | 10 | 1.6 | 194 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 11 |
Since the blowup against Michigan State in the Big 10 opener, Wisconsin has been on a bit of a rough stretch through the air. They have had a 2/7 TD/INT ratio and averaged nearly -3 over the last five games.
I don't consider anything a sure thing the way Michigan's pass defense has looked lately, but this is a Wisconsin team that doesn't show any major indications of being able to greatly exploit it either.
Pace
This will be another battle of contrasts as Michigan takes its 12.1 possessions a game against a Wisconsin team that has kept its games under the 11 mark.Turnovers
With the exception of throwing picks, Wisconsin has been about as average as they get in the turnover department. Overall the point impact (not turnover margin) of turnovers for Wisconsin has been -4, 69th nationally. They have a higher volume of both picks thrown and caught and are right in the middle on both fumble categories.Special Teams
Michigan should have a decided advantage over the mediocre special teams of Wisconsin. If Olesnavage can regain his form and put last week out of his mind, Michigan should have the advantage of two solid kickers. With the exception of Michigan's kickoff return, don't expect a lot to happen on the other units as both punt teams outshine the oppositions return units and Wisconsin hasn't been great on kickoff return themselves. Stonum should have the opportunity to keep plugging away, however, as Wisconsin has one of the poorer kick coverage units in the conference.Predictions
Wisconsin 35 Michigan 27Wisconsin's rushing game and a bit of home field advantage provide the difference. There appear to be opportunities for Michigan to close the gap, but the gap between these teams right now is very real. Has the potential to be a very interesting game.
Elsewhere
Penn State 35 Indiana 13
Illinois 24 NW 21
Ohio St 17 Iowa 7
Purdue 28 Michigan St 31
November 13th, 2009 at 4:03 PM ^
Michigan will beat the spread!
Your predictions are so well-reasoned! But this is the 2009 Wolverines, where reason is only occasionally employed.
If it doesn't happen your way, it's because of Ezeh's, Mouton's, Leach's and Kovacs' mental vacations. Write it down.
November 13th, 2009 at 4:08 PM ^
Northwestern is playing Illinois this week.
November 13th, 2009 at 4:12 PM ^
Good catch. Fixed now, thanks!
November 13th, 2009 at 4:19 PM ^
about a Sparty win - a loss will almost certainly take them out of bowl contention as they have to play PSU next week.
November 13th, 2009 at 4:37 PM ^
Do you really think Wisconsin will put up 35?
Seems to me they either own us, and the game will be a slow ground based low scoring affair, or we'll have Porsche versus Mack Truck, with the truck obstructing, and slowing things down, but Porsche bursting out enough that the final score being in the low 30s tops on both sides.
November 13th, 2009 at 11:09 PM ^
Purdue game --- three TDs in about 10 minutes (helped by the on-side kick)
Illinois game --- three TDs in about 10 minutes
If we wear down, then the big plays will happen. So will the 10 play 80 yd TD drives.
That is what scares me. A 14-10 UW lead can turn into 31-10 in 10 minutes.
November 13th, 2009 at 5:42 PM ^
your predictions don't take into account injuries......there's just no way Iowa stays within 2 TD's of OSU with their backup QB.
November 13th, 2009 at 11:06 PM ^
I think Ferentz knows what he needs to do to have a chance to win. He has a solid kicker and a very good defense. OSU is not lighting up people (even the PSU game was helped by two long PRs by Small).
He'll play things very slow and try to move the ball enough just for field position. I'm expecting a similar low-scoring game, say 20-10 or 17-7. It will come down to Pryor and not the rookie QB. Pryor can be flustered. Don't sell Iowa's DC Norm Parker short. He will have a good game plan.
What kills Iowa will be if the QB throws 2-3 picks. He has to be willing just to dump it off and let the receiver try to make a play.
One factor people don't know about: Iowa's O-Line is excellent and they have three quality receivers in DJK, McNutt, and TE Moeaki.
November 13th, 2009 at 11:00 PM ^
We know all too well how poorly we've played in the 2nd half the last three weeks.
But, I think the challenge will be keeping some semblance of a running game going, especially in the 1st half and early in the 3rd quarter. My concern is that we fall behind say 10 or 14 to 0 and then try the three passes and out schemes.
Forcier can keep us in the game if he isn't getting killed by a very good front 7. I'm more of the opinion in trying to win a slower scoring game, say 24-20 or 20-17, by keeping UW from manhandling our D.
If you want to see the key for success, look to the Iowa game (but let's avoid 5 turnovers!). Tough road game in a tough place playing a healthy Iowa team. We played some ball-control run offense during the game, even when we got down by two scores in the 2nd half. And, we had a chance to win if only D Rob had noticed Odoms running open on a crossing route (argh!).
I don't see a UM win unless we can repeat the Iowa performance, but w/o the turnovers.
Comments