By The Numbers - The Game
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All numbers are points per game vs an average team. They are adjusted
for strength of opponent. No 1AA games or stats are included.
For more detailed questions on how the
numbers come about, click here.
Ohio State Rush Defense: +2 (27, 3)
After a slow start against Navy, Tresselball has been in full effect. Except for a mild let down vs Minnesota, Ohio State has been positive against the run since week 2. Michigan, on the other hand has been a bit all over the place this year. Michigan, although second in the Big 10 in rushing, has gone 4-4 in terms of positive and negative games vs non-MAC competition. On top of that, none of those 8 games have been within 3 points of 0.
Projected outcome: +0, 35 carries, 130 yards 1TD
Ohio State Pass Defense: +7 (9, 2)
Ohio State presents a defense that, depending on how you look at it, either had a chink in the armor exposed last week to Iowa's backup qb, or a dominant pass defense that got a little complacent. Although this unit hasn't been as consistent as the rushing defense unit, it has generally wavered between good and great throughout the year.
Michigan hasn't been able to put up huge games (no Big 10 game as high as OSU's Big 10 average) but they have shown solid growth in the passing game over the last month or so, largely tied to the emergence of Roundtree.
Projected Outcome: -6, 18/30 175 yards 2 TD 1 INT
Rush Defense
Michigan Rush Defense: -2 (96, 9)
Ohio State Rush Offense: +1 (33, 3)
This is a unit that has killed Michigan all year long, and an Ohio State unit that has been their backbone. It is interesting to note that both teams have had 4 of their top 5 performances of the season in the last couple weeks. The difference is that Ohio State has gone from decent to really good and Michigan has gone from terrible to not totally terrible
Projected Outcome: -3, 45 carries 210 yards 3 TD
Ohio State Pass Offense: +0 (58, 7)
The Michigan pass defense has a very strong negative trend throughout the season. The good news? is that it's can't get much worse. Seriously, the Wisconsin game was the 996th best performance of pass defense out of 1114 that I have ranked this year. The interesting thing about OSU is that with Tresselball this year, the more they throw, the worse they do. When the Buckeyes have thrown the ball less than 20 times, they average +2.2 and have had their two best passing games of the year. When they have thrown the ball more than 20 times, they have averaged -1.1 and had their 3 worst games of the year. You have to think that the gameplan is going to be to keep the ball on the ground. Although this could be a positive, efficient game for OSU through the air, the knowledge that our pass defense could only be exposed to a minimum of attempts sounds pretty good at this point.
Projected Outcome: -1, 15/24 160 yards 1 TD 0 INT
Michigan Kickoff: OSU
Ohio State Kickoff: Michigan
Michigan Punt: Michigan
Ohio State Punt: OSU
All Special Teams: Push
Pace: As we prepare for another fast vs slow, contrast in styles matchup on Saturday, I am wondering if picking up the pace could be a winning strategy? We are not the most talented team in this matchup and more possessions generally favors the better team, but I have to wonder if we can make the game move faster and take OSU out of their comfort zone (even if it exposes a weakness or three) if that could be a path to upset?
Turnovers: 55 points. That's the difference in value between Ohio State's turnover performance YTD (+38) vs Michigan's (-17). 55 points will get you a long way. It is also the hallmark of the grind it out strategy. You have to own the swing plays and there are no swing plays bigger than turnovers. Even with the large divide, there are positive signs. Michigan has only lost 21 points to interceptions thrown this year, which is best in the Big 10. And interceptions are where OSU has made their living this year, racking up a +54 on picks for the season. If Michigan can keep away from bad interceptions, and a pick up a lucky bounce or two, could be a ball game.
The regular numbers are pretty stacked against Michigan this week, but with the type of tight game Ohio State likes to play, a key turnover or special teams play could present a window of opportunity to steal one this weekend.
Elsewhere:
Minnesota 14 Iowa 27
Wisconsin 31 Northwestern 17
Purdue 28 Indiana 27
Penn St 28 Michigan St 24
UConn 28 Notre Dame 35
Rush Offense
Michigan Rush Offense: +2 (25th Nationally, 2nd Big Ten)| Vs | Week | Value | Rush | Yards | YPC | TD |
| Western Michigan | 1 | 0.6 | 50 | 242 | 4.84 | 1 |
| Notre Dame | 2 | 4.8 | 36 | 199 | 5.53 | 2 |
| Eastern Michigan | 3 | 13.0 | 37 | 399 | 10.78 | 6 |
| Indiana | 4 | -2.9 | 47 | 153 | 3.26 | 3 |
| Michigan State | 5 | -3.8 | 25 | 61 | 2.44 | 0 |
| Iowa | 6 | 8.5 | 43 | 190 | 4.42 | 3 |
| Penn State | 8 | 4.7 | 33 | 134 | 4.06 | 1 |
| Illinois | 9 | -10.6 | 38 | 129 | 3.39 | 1 |
| Purdue | 10 | 8.1 | 39 | 240 | 6.15 | 4 |
| Wisconsin | 11 | -4.6 | 30 | 89 | 2.97 | 0 |
Ohio State Rush Defense: +2 (27, 3)
| Vs | Week | Value | Rush | Yards | YPC | TD |
| Navy | 1 | -2.8 | 41 | 197 | 4.8 | 2 |
| USC | 2 | 3.1 | 38 | 128 | 3.37 | 2 |
| Toledo | 3 | 1.3 | 11 | 31 | 2.82 | 0 |
| Illinois | 4 | 2.2 | 31 | 111 | 3.58 | 0 |
| Indiana | 5 | 3.9 | 23 | 43 | 1.87 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | 6 | 1.5 | 38 | 157 | 4.13 | 1 |
| Purdue | 7 | 5.4 | 29 | 82 | 2.83 | 0 |
| Minnesota | 8 | -0.8 | 25 | 144 | 5.76 | 0 |
| New Mexico State | 9 | 1.7 | 27 | 58 | 2.15 | 0 |
| Penn State | 10 | 7.7 | 28 | 89 | 3.18 | 1 |
| Iowa | 11 | 1.0 |
23 | 77 | 3.35 | 0 |
After a slow start against Navy, Tresselball has been in full effect. Except for a mild let down vs Minnesota, Ohio State has been positive against the run since week 2. Michigan, on the other hand has been a bit all over the place this year. Michigan, although second in the Big 10 in rushing, has gone 4-4 in terms of positive and negative games vs non-MAC competition. On top of that, none of those 8 games have been within 3 points of 0.
Projected outcome: +0, 35 carries, 130 yards 1TD
Pass Offense
Michigan Pass Offense: +1 (44, 4)| Vs | Week | Value | Yards | TD | INT | Att | Comp |
| Western Michigan | 1 | 8.4 | 197 | 3 | 1 | 28 | 15 |
| Notre Dame | 2 | 1.5 | 231 | 2 | 1 | 35 | 25 |
| Eastern Michigan | 3 | -7.7 | 49 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 9 |
| Indiana | 4 | 4.7 | 216 | 2 | 1 | 26 | 15 |
| Michigan State | 5 | -3.2 | 180 | 2 | 1 | 34 | 19 |
| Iowa | 6 | 0.5 | 124 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 11 |
| Penn State | 8 | -6.1 | 114 | 0 | 2 | 38 | 18 |
| Illinois | 9 | 2.3 | 247 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 17 |
| Purdue | 10 | 4.3 | 190 | 1 | 0 | 28 | 18 |
| Wisconsin | 11 | 6.3 | 174 | 2 | 1 | 33 | 22 |
Ohio State Pass Defense: +7 (9, 2)
| Vs | Week | Value | Yards | TD | INT | Att | Comp |
| Navy | 1 | -7.8 | 143 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 10 |
| USC | 2 | 7.1 | 185 | 0 | 1 | 34 | 17 |
| Toledo | 3 | 13.7 | 152 | 0 | 1 | 46 | 23 |
| Illinois | 4 | 13.6 | 59 | 0 | 3 | 32 | 17 |
| Indiana | 5 | 4.7 | 174 | 2 | 2 | 36 | 22 |
| Wisconsin | 6 | 20.1 | 211 | 0 | 2 | 51 | 32 |
| Purdue | 7 | 3.3 | 277 | 2 | 2 | 53 | 31 |
| Minnesota | 8 | 10.0 | 142 | 1 | 2 | 33 | 19 |
| New Mexico State | 9 | 5.6 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 7 |
| Penn State | 10 | 10.6 | 112 | 0 | 1 | 30 | 13 |
| Iowa | 11 | -4.1 | 223 | 2 | 3 | 34 | 21 |
Ohio State presents a defense that, depending on how you look at it, either had a chink in the armor exposed last week to Iowa's backup qb, or a dominant pass defense that got a little complacent. Although this unit hasn't been as consistent as the rushing defense unit, it has generally wavered between good and great throughout the year.
Michigan hasn't been able to put up huge games (no Big 10 game as high as OSU's Big 10 average) but they have shown solid growth in the passing game over the last month or so, largely tied to the emergence of Roundtree.
Projected Outcome: -6, 18/30 175 yards 2 TD 1 INT
Rush Defense
Michigan Rush Defense: -2 (96, 9)
| Vs | Week | Value | Rush | Yards | YPC | TD |
| Western Michigan | 1 | 4.3 | 21 | 45 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Notre Dame | 2 | -3.7 | 29 | 159 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Eastern Michigan | 3 | -4.4 | 46 | 192 | 4.2 | 2 |
| Indiana | 4 | -6.4 | 32 | 209 | 6.5 | 3 |
| Michigan State | 5 | -1.3 | 47 | 206 | 4.4 | 3 |
| Iowa | 6 | -0.8 | 32 | 98 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Penn State | 8 | 3.1 | 38 | 178 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Illinois | 9 | -12.6 | 52 | 414 | 8.0 | 4 |
| Purdue | 10 | 2.3 | 28 | 130 | 4.6 | 3 |
| Wisconsin | 11 | 0.5 | 50 | 254 | 5.1 | 2 |
Ohio State Rush Offense: +1 (33, 3)
| Vs | Week | Value | Rush | Yards | YPC | TD |
| Navy | 1 | -1.7 | 37 | 161 | 4.4 | 2 |
| USC | 2 | -9.0 | 29 | 100 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Toledo | 3 | 0.4 | 45 | 248 | 5.5 | 2 |
| Illinois | 4 | 0.4 | 45 | 239 | 5.3 | 2 |
| Indiana | 5 | 2.5 | 42 | 247 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Wisconsin | 6 | 1.1 | 25 | 113 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Purdue | 7 | -2.3 | 23 | 110 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Minnesota | 8 | 10.2 | 48 | 272 | 5.7 | 3 |
| New Mexico State | 9 | 6.1 | 47 | 313 | 6.7 | 3 |
| Penn State | 10 | 1.9 | 49 | 228 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Iowa | 11 | 4.3 | 49 | 244 | 5.0 |
3 |
This is a unit that has killed Michigan all year long, and an Ohio State unit that has been their backbone. It is interesting to note that both teams have had 4 of their top 5 performances of the season in the last couple weeks. The difference is that Ohio State has gone from decent to really good and Michigan has gone from terrible to not totally terrible
Projected Outcome: -3, 45 carries 210 yards 3 TD
Pass Defense
Michigan Pass Defense: -1 (63, 7)| Vs | Week | Value | Yards | TD | INT | Att | Comp |
| Western Michigan | 1 | 9.6 | 251 | 1 | 2.0 | 41 | 25 |
| Notre Dame | 2 | 0.3 | 336 | 3 | 0.0 | 42 | 25 |
| Eastern Michigan | 3 | 1.0 | 100 | 0 | 1.0 | 27 | 16 |
| Indiana | 4 | 1.5 | 258 | 0 | 1.0 | 39 | 22 |
| Michigan State | 5 | 3.8 | 212 | 0 | 2.0 | 30 | 21 |
| Iowa | 6 | 5.6 | 269 | 2 | 1.0 | 40 | 22 |
| Penn State | 8 | -1.1 | 218 | 4 | 0.0 | 29 | 18 |
| Illinois | 9 | -2.7 | 88 | 1 | 0.0 | 15 | 12 |
| Purdue | 10 | -9.9 | 364 | 2 | 2.0 | 40 | 29 |
| Wisconsin | 11 | -18.7 | 226 | 4 | 1.0 | 25 | 17 |
Ohio State Pass Offense: +0 (58, 7)
| Vs | Week | Value | Yards | TD | INT | Att | Comp |
| Navy | 1 | 3.7 | 202 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 18 |
| USC | 2 | -6.1 | 173 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 12 |
| Toledo | 3 | 4.9 | 274 | 3 | 2 | 33 | 19 |
| Illinois | 4 | 0.6 | 82 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 8 |
| Indiana | 5 | -1.0 | 131 | 3 | 1 | 31 | 20 |
| Wisconsin | 6 | -4.5 | 71 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 7 |
| Purdue | 7 | -5.3 | 202 | 1 | 2 | 34 | 20 |
| Minnesota | 8 | -6.9 | 237 | 2 | 1 | 27 | 14 |
| New Mexico State | 9 | 2.3 | 244 | 2 | 0 | 34 | 15 |
| Penn State | 10 | 7.6 | 125 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 8 |
| Iowa | 11 | 5.1 | 78 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 15 |
The Michigan pass defense has a very strong negative trend throughout the season. The good news? is that it's can't get much worse. Seriously, the Wisconsin game was the 996th best performance of pass defense out of 1114 that I have ranked this year. The interesting thing about OSU is that with Tresselball this year, the more they throw, the worse they do. When the Buckeyes have thrown the ball less than 20 times, they average +2.2 and have had their two best passing games of the year. When they have thrown the ball more than 20 times, they have averaged -1.1 and had their 3 worst games of the year. You have to think that the gameplan is going to be to keep the ball on the ground. Although this could be a positive, efficient game for OSU through the air, the knowledge that our pass defense could only be exposed to a minimum of attempts sounds pretty good at this point.
Projected Outcome: -1, 15/24 160 yards 1 TD 0 INT
The Rest of the Picture
Kicking: MichiganMichigan Kickoff: OSU
Ohio State Kickoff: Michigan
Michigan Punt: Michigan
Ohio State Punt: OSU
All Special Teams: Push
Pace: As we prepare for another fast vs slow, contrast in styles matchup on Saturday, I am wondering if picking up the pace could be a winning strategy? We are not the most talented team in this matchup and more possessions generally favors the better team, but I have to wonder if we can make the game move faster and take OSU out of their comfort zone (even if it exposes a weakness or three) if that could be a path to upset?
Turnovers: 55 points. That's the difference in value between Ohio State's turnover performance YTD (+38) vs Michigan's (-17). 55 points will get you a long way. It is also the hallmark of the grind it out strategy. You have to own the swing plays and there are no swing plays bigger than turnovers. Even with the large divide, there are positive signs. Michigan has only lost 21 points to interceptions thrown this year, which is best in the Big 10. And interceptions are where OSU has made their living this year, racking up a +54 on picks for the season. If Michigan can keep away from bad interceptions, and a pick up a lucky bounce or two, could be a ball game.
Predictions
Michigan 21 Ohio State 31The regular numbers are pretty stacked against Michigan this week, but with the type of tight game Ohio State likes to play, a key turnover or special teams play could present a window of opportunity to steal one this weekend.
Elsewhere:
Minnesota 14 Iowa 27
Wisconsin 31 Northwestern 17
Purdue 28 Indiana 27
Penn St 28 Michigan St 24
UConn 28 Notre Dame 35
DONT DEFER. Make Prior play from behind.
Victory is mine!
we got 'em right where we want them. From what I've heard there hasn't been much fanfare about this game down in Columbus and why should there be? They've beat us 5 in a row and out of those teams 80% were better than this '09 squad. So we get a half's worth of complacency from OSU; even those psycho's can't be up for this one. Hell, Boren has probably sowed the seeds of their demise all by himself with the negative talk about the team. We take it one half at a time and we got a chance.
p.s. Thanks! Enjoyed the write up :)
I've got 2 OSU grads on my softball team and last year they would just give me sh!t all year long. This year, nothing, they don't even seem to care! I hope the football team feels the same way :)
I think you hit it that the pace may be the key to the game. If we can somehow get Tressel out of his comfort zone and force OSU into a fast paced game (maybe a quick offensive score early and a Pryor pick/fumble that leads to more points), I don't think the stats show Pryor demonstrating the ability to go into a full out come from behind mode successfully... I remember the Purdue game and even the TD pass in the 4th to get them within one score was a floating duck thrown off of a pressure rush that should/could have been INT'd if the Purdue DB didn't slip. This may actually be a game where if our CB's do play off the line, we go max prevent with our safeties, and give TP the chance to throw lots of short passes, that may pay off for us in the end..
"So I come out of Ohio Stadium after we beat the Buckeyes, and right there on the hood of my friend's car, some one took a dump, in the shape of an 'O'. no shit. Oh, sorry, bad pun."
Make OSU play from behind, and you have a chance. Of course, scoring on this defense is easier said than done, but it's a strategy that worked for Purdue.
As much as I'd love to see M win, I don't hold out too much hope. We'll see...
The dude abides.
and hate it.