By The Numbers: An In-Depth Look at Michigan vs. Virginia Tech in the 2012 Sugar Bowl
Brady Hoke's first season as Michigan's head coach will come to an end on Tuesday, and most fans would agree that his rookie season at the helm has been a success. A win against Virginia Tech in the Sugar Bowl would tie the 2006 team's 11-2 campaign for the best record since going undefeated in 1997. I decided to take a close look at the numbers that these two teams put up this season, and try to organize them and make some sense out of them.
Here's the summary in chart form, read on for a more detailed analysis.
| Michigan Wolverines | Virginia Tech Hokies | Advantage | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Key Wins | Nebraska 45-17 (Were #16, Now 9-3 and #21), Notre Dame 35-31 (NR, 8-4 and #26) | Georgia Tech 37-26 (Were #21, Now 8-4 and #30), Virginia 38-0 (NR, 8-4 and #33) | Slight Michigan |
| Losses | Michigan State 28-14 (Were #23, Now 10-3 and #12), Iowa 24-16 (NR, 7-5 and NR) | Clemson 23-3 (Were #13, Now 10-3 and #14), Clemson 38-10 (Were #20) | Slight VT |
| Rushing Offense |
5.34ypc, 235.7ypg, 31 TDs |
4.53ypc, 188.7pyg, 25 TDs (#30) |
Michigan |
| Rushing Defense |
4.07ypc, 129.1ypg, 13 TDs (#34) |
3.32ypc, 107.8ypg, 15 TDs (#17) |
VT |
| Passing Offense |
8.6ypa, 187.4ypg, 20 TDs, 15 INTs (#90) |
7.8ypa, 227ypg, 21 TDs, 9 INTs (#66) |
VT |
| Passing Defense |
6.54ypa, 188.5ypg, 12 TDs, 8 INTs (#17) |
6.85ypa, 206.2ypg, 14 TDs, 15 INTs (#39) |
Michigan |
| Special Teams- Returns | 10.3yds punt return avg (#36), 19.8yds kick return avg (#99) | 9yds punt return avg (#51), 19.7yds kick return avg (#100) | None |
| Special Teams- Kicking | 33.7yds avg net punt (#107), 71.4% field goals (#70) | 33.6yds avg net punt (#108), 82.4% field goals (#46) | Slight VT |
| Turnovers | +6 TO Margin, 0.5pg (#25) | +6 TO Margin, 0.46pg (#29) | None |
| Penalties | 4.1 Penalties Per Game (#5) | 5.8 Penalties Per Game (#58) | Michigan |
| Red Zone |
84% RZ Offense (#48), 69% RZ Defense (#4) |
75% RZ Offense (#101), 68% RZ Defense (#3) |
Michigan |
| Sacks |
2.3 sacks per game (#27), 1.3 sacks allowed per game (#27) |
2.9 sacks per game (#11), 1.2 sacks allowed per game (#21) |
VT |
| 3rd Down | 48.4% 3rd Down Offense (#11), 36.1% 3rd Down Defense (#30) | 46.3% 3rd Down Offense (#22), 32.4% 3rd Down Defense (#11) | None |
| 4th Down | 56.3% 4th Down Offense (#32), 38.9% 4th Down Defense (#21) | 47.1% 4th Down Offense (#72), 31.6% 4th Down Defense (#8) | Slight Michigan |
Michigan Rush Offense vs. Virginia Tech Rush Defense
Michigan: #12 Rush Offense, 5.34ypc, 235.7ypg, 31 TDs
Virginia Tech: #17 Rush Defense, 3.32ypc, 107.8ypg, 15 TDs
Michigan has quite the two-headed rushing monster this season, with Denard being Denard -- leading the team with 1,163yds rushing at 5.6ypc, and Fitz finishing the season strong, giving the Wolverines two 1,000 yard rushers (1,011yds, 5.8ypc) for the first time in decades.
Virginia Tech, meanwhile, put up good defensive numbers against average teams, and not so great numbers against good ones. In a win over Georgia Tech they gave up 243 rushing yards, and in the two games that they lost to Clemson, they gave up 350 yards on the ground and looked bad in the process. With all the different looks they'll see from this Michigan offense, not to mention the fact that they'll be facing two legitimate running options on every single play, Michigan should be able to put up big numbers on the ground against this Hokie defense.
Michigan Rush Defense vs. Virginia Tech Rush Offense
Michigan: #34 Rush Defense, 4.07ypc, 129.1ypg, 13 TDs
Virginia Tech: #30 Rush Offense, 4.53ypc, 188.7ypg, 25 TDs
The front seven has made a pretty miraculous turnaround this season, a complete reversal of their performance last season, and has stopped some decent teams cold on the ground. We didn't have to face Wisconsin's dominant ground game this year, and Edwin Baker racked up 167yds on the ground against us in East Lansing, but other than that the run defense has been pretty solid.
The Hokies, on the other hand, have a quality talent in David Wilson, who ran for 1,627yds this season at 6.1ypc. He went off in his first meeting with Clemson, running for 123yds on 20 carries, but Clemson made some adjustments in the rematch and held him to just 32yds on 11 carries. I'm sure Mattison will be studying the film from that game very closely, and the Michigan defense should be able to keep Wilson under 100 yards on the day. Logan Thomas is somewhat of a threat out of the backfield as well, and will scramble if no one is open, but only ran for 416 yards on the year (3ypc) and is definitely no Denard.
Michigan Pass Offense vs. Virginia Tech Pass Defense
Michigan: #90 Pass Offense, 8.6ypa, 187.4ypg, 20 TDs, 15 INTs
Virginia Tech: #39 Pass Defense, 6.85ypa, 206.2ypg, 14 TDs, 15 INTs
Michigan's greatest weakness in the passing game is Virginia Tech's greatest strength defending the pass: interceptions. Denard has thrown 14 picks this season (Michigan is #97 in interceptions thrown), and Virginia Tech has picked off 15 passes this season, good enough to place them at #19 in the country in interceptions. If the Wolverines can keep a majority of their yardage on the ground, and make short, safe passes down the field to keep things mixed up, they'll be hard to stop. If Denard gets antsy and a couple of balls get thrown off his back foot, two or three interceptions might be too much for Michigan to overcome in what could end up being a close game.
Michigan Pass Defense vs. Virginia Tech Pass Offense
Michigan: #17 Pass Defense, 6.54ypa, 188.5ypg, 12 TDs, 8 INTs
Virginia Tech: #66 Pass Offense, 7.8ypa, 227ypg, 21 TDs, 9 INTs
Logan Thomas is kind of Denard Robinson Lite. He's thrown for almost 2,800yds, but has a completion percentage of 59%. He's thrown 9 interceptions, including three against Clemson, a two game series that saw him throw one total touchdown and barely completed 50% of his passes. His legs aren't anything to worry too much about, but he's an inconsistent player who shows flashes of greatness and follows them up with badly timed throws and a couple of dangerous passes into coverage.
This Wolverine Secondary isn't as much of a concern as it was early on in the season, as a couple of young players have stepped up big time, most notably Blake Countess. The safety positions have been a bit of a musical chair situation, but the players have settled into their roles and will be ready after weeks of preparation for the bowl game.
Michigan Special Teams vs. Virginia Tech Special Teams
Michigan: 33.7yds avg net punt (#107), 10.3yds punt return avg (#36), 19.8yds kick return avg (#99), 71.4% field goals (#70)
Virginia Tech: 33.6yds avg net punt (#108), 9yds punt return avg (#51), 19.7yds kick return avg (#100), 82.4% field goals (#46)
Both teams are comically bad at punting this season, and pretty average at punt returns. Kick returns are virtually identical as well (both terrible), and VaTech has the edge at the Kicker position, but not by much. VT's starting placekicker will not play in the bowl game and will split kicking duties between the back-ups, as the starting kicker was arrested and suspended (HT: MGoShoe). This isn't last year's kicking game for Michigan. Don't expect any major plays in either direction on special teams.
Michigan vs. Virginia Tech: Miscellaneous
Michigan: +6 TO Margin, 0.5pg (#25), 4.1 Penalties Per Game (#5), 84% RZ Offense (#48), 69% RZ Defense (#4), 2.3 sacks per game (#27), 1.3 sacks allowed per game (#27), 48.4% 3DO (#11), 36.1% 3DD (#30), 56.3% 4DO (#32), 38.9% 4DD (#21)
Virginia Tech: +6 TO Margin, 0.46pg (#29), 5.8 Penalties Per Game (#58), 75% RZ Offense (#101), 68% RZ Defense (#3), 2.9 sacks per game (#11), 1.2 sacks allowed per game (#21), 46.3% 3DO (#22), 32.4% 3DD (#11), 47.1% 4DO (#72), 31.6% 4DD (#8)
Lots of fun stats to look at here, make of them what you will. Expect to see both quarterbacks get sacked once or twice, and depending on which refs will be in the bowl, assuming trends hold, Michigan could continue to be one of the most disciplined teams in the country, averaging only 4 penalties per game, compared to almost six for Virginia Tech.
Even though on paper the 2012 Sugar Bowl looks like a pretty evenly matched game, I like Michigan a lot. Clemson has given this defense plenty of film to watch, and has given Mattison the blueprint to stop both Thomas and Wilson. Michigan's ground game should be too much for the Hokies to handle, and I could see both Denard and Fitz going over 100yds on the ground, with maybe another 200 through the air.
Michigan wants to give it's seniors and first year coach a huge, program-changing victory in it's first BCS Bowl Game since 2007, and I think they're going to do it pretty easily. I'll say 38-14. What say you?
December 28th, 2011 at 5:07 PM ^
38-14 seems a little much for my tastes. I think its gonna be closer than that. I like Michigan though. I think our ground game and D will be the deciding factor, but will keep the game more low-scoring and closer.
Michigan 27 Va Tech 17
December 28th, 2011 at 10:19 PM ^
Kind of funny to read through that whole analysis, which basically calls it even, and then see a 38-14 prediction at the end.
Hope it happens!
December 28th, 2011 at 5:12 PM ^
MSU is #17
December 28th, 2011 at 5:20 PM ^
Not in the AP
December 29th, 2011 at 10:42 AM ^
But the BCS is the only one that really matters
December 28th, 2011 at 5:31 PM ^
...placekicker due to the arrest and suspension of their starting PK. See this post at maizepaiges.com for a review of the Hokies' specialists.
According to Frank Beamer today, VT will split kicking duties between its two backup kickers. Think Michigan's kicking situation last year and that's what Tech has to deal with on Tuesday.
December 28th, 2011 at 5:36 PM ^
Noted and edited. Thanks much for the info.
December 28th, 2011 at 5:40 PM ^
I still don't think a lot of people are giving David Wilson enough credit. He's pretty darn good. I think if he doesn't go over 100 yards he will be close. That isn't a know against the defense, he is just really good.
December 28th, 2011 at 6:05 PM ^
I hope its not 38-14. Sure, a blowout would be good as it would really show how far we've come, but part of me wants this game to come down to the wire. I'll be at the game, and I can't even begin to imagine the kind of atmosphere that it would produce to have it come down to the final drive. Plus, even though they've been blown out in both losses, I don't think people credit Va Tech enough. They're a 10-11 win team year in and out.
My guess is both teams will be trading blows all night. Wilson will rush for 100 yds, or very close to it, but then Denard and Fitz will be the same. I see Thomas having a decent game, but getting sacked at least twice. I think this game ends either with Denard leading an 80 yd TD drive in the final minute and a half, or the defense stepping up big on Va Tech's final drive and holding them, preferably ending with a sack courtesy of Martin or RVB.
Michigan, 31-28, 2012 Sugar Bowl Champions, more than enough momentum to carry into next year's showdown with Alabama.
December 28th, 2011 at 6:42 PM ^
And our RZ defense is especially good. Bodes well for us.
December 28th, 2011 at 7:03 PM ^
I don't see how anyone could be afraid of this VT team (even if we lost, I'd say the same thing). Virginia Tech, traditionally, is pretty bad against OOC teams (as the ACC is horrible). Against ranked OOC opponents in the last 5 years they are 2-5 with wins against Cincinnati and Nebraska and loses against Stanford, Boise State, Alabama, LSU, and Kansas. The two wins were close throughout the game while two of their loses were complete blowouts (lost by 41 and 28) with the addition of the Alabama game where they only lost by 10 despite VT being held to 150 yards to Alabama's 500. During this span they also lost to James Madison (FCS) at home and East Carolina.
Frank Beamer is 1-4 in BCS games and has a 8-10 overall bowl record (4-6 in the last 10 years). I've watched these Hokie teams year after year just get destroyed by out-of-conference competition. I expect a Nebraska-like game with us dominating them but feel like the game will be closer than that if Denard gets ansy or the defense doesn't show up like they did against Ohio State. In the end, I only can see a Michigan victory here and would love to see the blowout with Michigan beating the university I currently attend. I'll be at the game with my dad and girlfriend (VT student as well - rooting for both sides) and can't wait for the 6 (almost 5!) days till gameday.
December 28th, 2011 at 7:26 PM ^
I always love when you MGoFans put so much work into your love of Wolverine football!
Go Blue!
December 29th, 2011 at 9:02 AM ^
The whole time I was reading all the stats, I kept thinking that their stats were against inferior competition. Then the OP predicts a slam dunk at the end and goes completely against what all the stats he took so much time compliling seem to say. I also think we will smash this team.
If you think about it, OSU had a bunch of long passes that kept them scoring, but we stopped everything else. Our D has no doubt made that a focus in the bowl practices, and VT has probably emphasised it as the only way they stay in the game. We will see many play action bombs in the bowl game and this will decide whether we win by 20 or 3 IMHO. Go Blue!!!
December 29th, 2011 at 10:46 AM ^
I love this critique of the match up, however, doesn't Virgina Tech have a blue print to how to pass on us from the Ohio game? I really like our chances and what this team in going to bring to the table. Yet, I still have a feeling the secondary is going to have a long game and its going to come down to the 4th quarter. 34-28 UM
December 29th, 2011 at 10:58 PM ^
has Troy Woolfolk playing safety along side Kovacs. Woolfolk had his senior moment, now it is time for Thomas Gordon to return as the starter. It is no coincidence that the Michigan secondary didn't start givng up big plays until Woolfolk was moved to safety.
December 30th, 2011 at 11:13 AM ^
I hope to god that Beamer looks at the Ohio game and that game only when we chose to go Cover zero (Robber 4-4) the WHOLE game. The secondary is still our strongest unit on the defense and will continue to be in this game. I think we'll return to our good old 2-man-under defense with VT.
December 29th, 2011 at 11:12 AM ^
"Brady Hoke's first season as Michigan's head coach will come to an end on Tuesday, and most fans would agree that his rookie season at the helm has been a success."
If we would have hired one of the bigger name Coaches we would be saying, "Yeah! This is exactly why we hired him!" Coach Hoke has done an AMAZING job; I look forward to what he gets done here at Michigan in the coming years.
December 29th, 2011 at 11:20 AM ^
VT has a big, experienced O-line and a stud at RB (projected by many as a 2nd round NFL pick). If we can slow down or shut down their running game, VT doesn't have much of a chance.
What I find interesting is how similar Hoke's and Beamer's philosophies are in terms of a ball control offense and stout defense that rises to the occassion in the red zone. Michigan has a far greater possibility of scoring points quickly, though, and more varied weapons on offense. VT doesn't have the kind of offense to come from behind. If they are behind by two td's late in the game, game over. Michigan can play ball control offense, but also has the proven capabilitiy of scoring quickly and often.
December 31st, 2011 at 12:47 AM ^
our apparent lack of depth on the d-line is worrisome. While VT does have the Ohio film to study, I have to assume that Matison & Co have figured out in the last four weeks how to adjust better than they did after halftime against Ohio. Still, I think we have to assume that the Hokies stack up some yards on the ground, and hit a long ball or two. I do not see the defense giving up more than 28, and if they can continue the good work in the red zone, 17-21 is a possibility.
Key on offense will be turnovers. We should be able to establish the run between Denard/Fitz, and keep Denard in relatively safe passing situations. Assuming we do not give up any points to VT on offense, I'll call this one 31-24 in a game that sounds closer than it will look.
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