Illinois has really hit rock bottom in just about everything. Hopefully we can beat up on Juice and crew this year.
By The Numbers - Big 10 Ranks
Defense - Pass+
|Off||G||Expected Points||Actual Points||Diff|
|Def||G||Expected Points||Actual Points||Diff|
a combined stat of rush and pass.
Can you explain the difference between what you report in your "ACTUAL POINTS" columns vs. the boxscore actual?
You mention in one of your blog explanations that you don't chart "garbage" plays and I assume you don't include ST or interception return touchdowns (i.e, Stonum). Is that what I'm missing or is there more.
I like what you've done, BTW. Just curious.
There are a couple potential reasons for the gaps.
1. Garbage time, as you noted, is either excluded or diminished
2. Defensive and special teams touchdowns are not included
3. All touchdowns are included as 7 points, even if the PAT/2PC is missed or if a 2PC is successful.
4. Safeties count as -2 for the offense, so a touchdown and a safety would mean the offense has produced 5 points.
I think these are all the reasons for potential discrepancies.
So, the EMU touchdown in the second half was garbage (7 fewer against the D), Stonum's return TD didn't count (seven fewer for the O) and the 2pt conversion against Indiana actaully counted as 1 (1 fewer for the O).
150 points for the O becomes 142, ergo, 35.5
91 points against the D becomes 84, ergo, 21.0
Did you know the last LC team to score 150 in 4 games was in 2003 and he only did it one other time? Moeller's teams did it a bunch and Bo's did it less than I would have thought.
I'm guessing they'll need 45 to beat Sparty, which is not inconceivable.
Wow, the defense grades out better than I would have thought. Hope your data is correct -- we don't grade out that good just looking at the raw numbers.
So, maybe our defense is not as bad as is commonly perceived?
Bad? Probably not, but thin as can be. One injury would be terrible.
If you remember, our D looked like a beast the first half against Western. If you take out garbage time of the game, that probably weighs our stats into respectability.
Michigan has an offense that creates a serious mis-match for every opponent. Not, any one-on-one matchup or even the o-line vs the d-line.
We have an offense that other teams haven't been able to slow down, much less stop. We killed four drives against IU on our own. If half of those are TDs we score 50!(theoretically).
Other teams must see this as an offense they have to outscore as opposed to stopping. That creates a mis-match in game preparation and a shift in focus.
If our defense just limits the big plays, we can become dominant.
Considering that since 2002 the only OSU defense that has probably come close to giving up 19 pts/game was the 2004 defense, why were they expected to give up 19.4 pts/game this year?
The expected points are how many points an average team would give up given the starting field position of the opponent. It is consistent across all teams. In other words, on average, a D1 football team would allow 19.4 pts/game if they faced the same drives OSU did. Good defenses would obviously allow less, bad defenses would allow more. The metric is there to distinguish points allowed between teams that have faced different numbers of drives/game and different starting field position. Giving up a FG when the other team starts with first and goal at the 1 is a huge win for the defense, even though they allowed 3 points. Giving up a FG when the other teams starts at their own 1 is a huge loss for the defense, even though the points allowed are the same. These differences are reflected in the expected points numbers.
You've got Penn State as having played 5 games on defense. Typo or does that mean something??
Good stuff though, very informative. I don't like seeing MSU as the #1 pass offense, that doesn't bode well for this weekend.
Somehow my database pulled a magical 5th game for PSU. The per play numbers are right but the overall averages assume a 5th game that had zero stats so they are a little off. I fixed it for all future updates.