By The Numbers - Big 10 Player Ranks
Big 10 Player ranks by position. Traditional stats are all-in, value stats are opponent and situation adjusted. Games against non-FBS opponents are excluded from all numbers.
QB stats don't include sacks or fumbles. Denard only listed for 3 games because he didn't attempt a pass against ND.
Not noted on the stat detail, but any passes from running backs are included in the total value figure.
Player - WR - Season
Value column is on completions only, Value+ column is all in, catches and targeted incompletions/interceptions. Not noted on the stat detail, but any runs (Tandon Doss) or passes from wide receivers are included in the total value figure.
Wide receivers' value numbers will always skew high because they don't have much for negative plays working against them, they just don't get the ball if they make a bad play, so even with the adjusted numbers, the totals are generally a self-selected group.
Player | Team | G | Value | Yards | TD | INT | Rush Yards | Rush TD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mike Kafka | Northwestern | 3 | 6.08 | 285 | 1.67 | 1.00 | 26 | 0.33 |
Daryll Clark | Penn State | 4 | 5.61 | 241 | 2.25 | 1.50 | 12 | 0.00 |
Tate Forcier | Michigan | 4 | 5.60 | 167 | 1.75 | 0.50 | 40 | 0.50 |
Ricky Stanzi | Iowa | 3 | 4.15 | 179 | 1.33 | 1.67 | 8 | 0.00 |
Kirk Cousins | Michigan State | 3 | 3.91 | 222 | 1.33 | 0.67 | 2 | 0.00 |
Terrelle Pryor | Ohio State | 4 | 3.28 | 173 | 1.25 | 1.00 | 62 | 0.50 |
Keith Nichol | Michigan State | 3 | 2.40 | 84 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 18 | 0.00 |
D Robinson | Michigan | 3 | 2.19 | 19 | 0.00 | 0.67 | 51 | 1.00 |
Scott Tolzien | Wisconsin | 3 | 1.22 | 241 | 2.00 | 0.67 | 9 | 0.00 |
J Williams | Illinois | 3 | 0.75 | 80 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 52 | 0.00 |
Adam Weber | Minnesota | 4 | -0.84 | 219 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 4 | 0.00 |
Joey Elliott | Purdue | 4 | -1.84 | 235 | 1.75 | 1.50 | 28 | 0.50 |
Ben Chappell | Indiana | 3 | -2.14 | 203 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 1 | 0.50 |
QB stats don't include sacks or fumbles. Denard only listed for 3 games because he didn't attempt a pass against ND.
Player | Team | G | Value | Rush | Yards | TD | Rec Yards | Rec TD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Carlos Brown | Michigan | 4 | 4.89 | 9 | 80 | 0.75 | 37 | 0.33 |
Ralph Bolden | Purdue | 4 | 4.63 | 19 | 122 | 1.00 | 27 | 0.25 |
Adam Robinson | Iowa | 3 | 3.72 | 16 | 86 | 1.00 | 24 | 0.00 |
Evan Royster | Penn State | 4 | 2.11 | 15 | 71 | 0.75 | 25 | 0.33 |
Brandon Minor | Michigan | 3 | 2.08 | 10 | 59 | 0.67 | ||
Darius Willis | Indiana | 2 | 1.62 | 15 | 109 | 1.50 | 27 | 0.00 |
Brandon Saine | Ohio State | 4 | 1.36 | 8 | 45 | 0.00 | 21 | 0.00 |
Jaycen Taylor | Purdue | 4 | 1.24 | 6 | 28 | 0.75 | 38 | 1.00 |
Larry Caper | Michigan State | 3 | 1.14 | 8 | 35 | 0.67 | ||
Duane Bennett | Minnesota | 4 | 0.80 | 12 | 52 | 1.00 | 2 | 0.00 |
Caulton Ray | Michigan State | 3 | -0.21 | 7 | 24 | 0.33 | ||
Trea Burgess | Indiana | 3 | -0.71 | 7 | 25 | 0.33 | ||
Dan Herron | Ohio State | 4 | -0.87 | 15 | 53 | 1.25 | 17 | 0.00 |
John Clay | Wisconsin | 3 | -1.05 | 22 | 109 | 1.33 | ||
Brandon Wegher | Iowa | 3 | -1.42 | 15 | 73 | 0.67 | 12 | 0.00 |
Jacob Schmidt | Northwestern | 3 | -1.59 | 9 | 37 | 0.00 | 28 | 0.00 |
D Mccray | Indiana | 3 | -1.95 | 10 | 60 | 0.33 | 5 | 0.00 |
Zach Brown | Wisconsin | 3 | -3.14 | 11 | 37 | 0.33 | 7 | 0.00 |
Not noted on the stat detail, but any passes from running backs are included in the total value figure.
Player - WR - Season
Player | Team | G | Value | Value+ | Rec | Yards | TD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Eric Decker | Minnesota | 4 | 8.60 | 5.35 | 8.75 | 124 | 1.00 |
Keith Smith | Purdue | 4 | 7.73 | 5.61 | 7.00 | 89 | 0.50 |
Mark Dell | Michigan State | 2 | 6.59 | 3.52 | 5.50 | 97 | 0.50 |
B Cunningham | Michigan State | 3 | 6.42 | 3.37 | 6.00 | 79 | 1.00 |
Keshawn Martin | Michigan State | 2 | 5.47 | 3.35 | 2.50 | 76 | 1.00 |
D Sanzenbacher | Ohio State | 4 | 5.31 | 5.13 | 3.00 | 69 | 1.00 |
Derek Moye | Penn State | 4 | 5.22 | 3.05 | 3.75 | 63 | 0.50 |
Trey Stross | Iowa | 2 | 5.15 | 4.09 | 4.00 | 53 | 0.00 |
Isaac Anderson | Wisconsin | 3 | 5.11 | 4.49 | 3.33 | 78 | 0.33 |
Blair White | Michigan State | 3 | 5.07 | 3.49 | 4.67 | 62 | 0.67 |
Tandon Doss | Indiana | 3 | 4.65 | 2.58 | 5.67 | 80 | 0.00 |
D J-Koulianos | Iowa | 2 | 4.59 | 1.90 | 3.00 | 44 | 0.50 |
Chaz Powell | Penn State | 4 | 4.27 | 3.60 | 3.75 | 53 | 0.50 |
Aaron Valentin | Purdue | 4 | 4.23 | 2.32 | 4.25 | 43 | 0.50 |
Nick Toon | Wisconsin | 3 | 4.10 | 0.24 | 4.00 | 55 | 0.67 |
B Mitchell | Northwestern | 1 | 4.05 | 4.05 | 4.00 | 38 | 1.00 |
Drake Dunsmore | Northwestern | 3 | 3.72 | 2.24 | 5.33 | 58 | 0.33 |
Andrew Brewer | Northwestern | 3 | 3.71 | 2.62 | 3.00 | 45 | 0.67 |
Garrett Graham | Wisconsin | 3 | 3.65 | 1.24 | 4.67 | 63 | 1.00 |
Devier Posey | Ohio State | 4 | 3.46 | 1.85 | 3.75 | 40 | 0.25 |
Graham Zug | Penn State | 3 | 3.22 | 2.66 | 4.00 | 51 | 0.67 |
D Fields | Northwestern | 3 | 3.15 | 2.75 | 4.00 | 32 | 0.33 |
Greg Mathews | Michigan | 2 | 3.13 | 1.17 | 3.50 | 43 | 0.50 |
J Hemingway | Michigan | 3 | 3.01 | 2.54 | 2.33 | 37 | 0.67 |
Sidney Stewart | Northwestern | 1 | 2.76 | 0.74 | 5.00 | 43 | 0.00 |
Kevin Koger | Michigan | 3 | 2.76 | 2.70 | 2.67 | 35 | 0.67 |
Max Dedmond | Indiana | 2 | 2.23 | 1.57 | 3.00 | 23 | 0.50 |
D Belcher | Indiana | 3 | 2.15 | 0.05 | 4.33 | 41 | 0.00 |
T Turner | Indiana | 4 | 1.84 | -1.12 | 4.75 | 41 | 0.25 |
Z Markshausen | Northwestern | 3 | 1.68 | 0.55 | 5.67 | 64 | 0.00 |
Lanc Kendricks | Wisconsin | 1 | 1.39 | 1.39 | 4.00 | 35 | 0.00 |
Mickey Shuler | Penn State | 2 | 1.08 | -0.53 | 1.00 | 4 | 0.50 |
Kyle Adams | Purdue | 4 | -0.06 | -1.47 | 3.50 | 27 | 0.00 |
Value column is on completions only, Value+ column is all in, catches and targeted incompletions/interceptions. Not noted on the stat detail, but any runs (Tandon Doss) or passes from wide receivers are included in the total value figure.
Wide receivers' value numbers will always skew high because they don't have much for negative plays working against them, they just don't get the ball if they make a bad play, so even with the adjusted numbers, the totals are generally a self-selected group.
September 30th, 2009 at 2:54 PM ^
Keith Nichol should not be averaging more rushing yards than Daryll Clark. The spread HD has to be able to us his athleticism a little better me thinks
September 30th, 2009 at 3:49 PM ^
Two things: 1. Nichol isn't even close to the passer that Clark is, Clark also has a much better team around him, so Nichol will rely on his legs more than Clark will.
2. Nichol may be a better runner than Clark is. Seriously, Nichol is a run first QB; Clark can run when he needs to, but is a passer first.
September 30th, 2009 at 4:21 PM ^
Clark has also faced Iowa's tough run defense, while Nichol padded his rushing numbers with one long run against Wisconsin's backups.
September 30th, 2009 at 4:51 PM ^
I don't think they are running Clark much because of the nummy cupcakes. I think they don't want to chance him in the open field if they don't need to, I bet with the loss to Iowa and the Big Ten Season they open up the playbook more.
September 30th, 2009 at 3:17 PM ^
why you left Denards ND stats off?
September 30th, 2009 at 3:42 PM ^
why is Mathews not in the WR stat chart? is he not even listable?
September 30th, 2009 at 4:12 PM ^
Updated
September 30th, 2009 at 7:06 PM ^
does it make logical sense that MSU has 4 WRs in the top 10 (3.4.5.10) yet their QB is #5? i love statistical analysis, but there must be a flaw here somewhere.
September 30th, 2009 at 7:11 PM ^
i.e. incompletion
September 30th, 2009 at 7:31 PM ^
Incompletions produce negative value and are included in the QBs overall numbers. The value of the negative depends on the situation. As noted, the receivers have two metrics. The Value metric does not change if a receiver is targeted but the pass is incomplete. However, the value+ metric brings in the incompletions and the receivers are dinged if an incompletion is thrown their direction.
September 30th, 2009 at 7:30 PM ^
Couple things to note. Notice how the value+ is much lower in relation to the value for the MSU receivers versus receivers near them in the rankings. This means they are being targeted a lot, they are making some plays but there are also being targeted more. The second thing to note is that MSU plays 2 QBs. Their QBs combined would be the #1 QB in the conference in total value added, and in the team rankings, MSU is first in overall pass offense.
October 1st, 2009 at 1:04 AM ^
...if you also combine Tate and DRob. :^D
October 1st, 2009 at 10:17 AM ^
I commend your efforts on this, very interesting stuff. However, I must say that this wanders into saber-metrics voodoo with values for QBs (assumption on similar weighting issues in remaining analysis). To have Denard Robinson's value be higher than Scott Tolzien is a little absurd. Just look at the chart and say aloud "19 yards passing per game, 11 total attempts, a 43.3 qb ratings is a higher aggregate statistical value player than a qb with a 66.7% cp, 8td/2int, 221 ypg and the highest qb rating in the league." I guess yards per game, completion percentage/rating and td/int ratio are vastly under-valued?
October 1st, 2009 at 11:40 AM ^
On Denard, this is adjusted to zero, so some players are negative, its not like more plays automatically mean higher ratings. Denard has been pretty effective the plays he has participated in. Plus, QB ratings don't take into account rushing stats. The QB ratings are just that QB ratings, not passer ratings.
As for Tolzien, remember, the NCAA/Big 10 official stats include games against 1AA competition, I do not. Second, everything is opponent adjusted. Tolzien has two solid games, a +6 against MSU and a +4 against Northern Illinois. However, he had a mediocre (not bad) performance against Fresno State, who so far hasn't exhibited a great pass defense.
It's all about situation and opposition.
October 1st, 2009 at 10:25 AM ^
did you explain how you arrive at that value number in another post?
October 1st, 2009 at 11:43 AM ^
Check out the bottom of this post for details.
http://mgoblog.com/diaries/indiana-numbers
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