By The Numbers - Big 10 Player Ranks

Submitted by The Mathlete on
Big 10 Player ranks by position. Traditional stats are all-in, value stats are opponent and situation adjusted. Games against non-FBS opponents are excluded from all numbers.

Player - QB - Season
Player Team G Value Yards TD INT Rush Yards Rush TD
Mike Kafka Northwestern 3 6.08 285 1.67 1.00 26 0.33
Daryll Clark Penn State 4 5.61 241 2.25 1.50 12 0.00
Tate Forcier Michigan 4 5.60 167 1.75 0.50 40 0.50
Ricky Stanzi Iowa 3 4.15 179 1.33 1.67 8 0.00
Kirk Cousins Michigan State 3 3.91 222 1.33 0.67 2 0.00
Terrelle Pryor Ohio State 4 3.28 173 1.25 1.00 62 0.50
Keith Nichol Michigan State 3 2.40 84 1.00 0.67 18 0.00
D Robinson Michigan 3 2.19 19 0.00 0.67 51 1.00
Scott Tolzien Wisconsin 3 1.22 241 2.00 0.67 9 0.00
J Williams Illinois 3 0.75 80 0.00 1.00 52 0.00
Adam Weber Minnesota 4 -0.84 219 1.25 1.25 4 0.00
Joey Elliott Purdue 4 -1.84 235 1.75 1.50 28 0.50
Ben Chappell Indiana 3 -2.14 203 0.67 0.67 1 0.50

QB stats don't include sacks or fumbles. Denard only listed for 3 games because he didn't attempt a pass against ND.

Player - RB - Season
Player Team G Value Rush Yards TD Rec Yards Rec TD
Carlos Brown Michigan 4 4.89 9 80 0.75 37 0.33
Ralph Bolden Purdue 4 4.63 19 122 1.00 27 0.25
Adam Robinson Iowa 3 3.72 16 86 1.00 24 0.00
Evan Royster Penn State 4 2.11 15 71 0.75 25 0.33
Brandon Minor Michigan 3 2.08 10 59 0.67

Darius Willis Indiana 2 1.62 15 109 1.50 27 0.00
Brandon Saine Ohio State 4 1.36 8 45 0.00 21 0.00
Jaycen Taylor Purdue 4 1.24 6 28 0.75 38 1.00
Larry Caper Michigan State 3 1.14 8 35 0.67

Duane Bennett Minnesota 4 0.80 12 52 1.00 2 0.00
Caulton Ray Michigan State 3 -0.21 7 24 0.33

Trea Burgess Indiana 3 -0.71 7 25 0.33

Dan Herron Ohio State 4 -0.87 15 53 1.25 17 0.00
John Clay Wisconsin 3 -1.05 22 109 1.33

Brandon Wegher Iowa 3 -1.42 15 73 0.67 12 0.00
Jacob Schmidt Northwestern 3 -1.59 9 37 0.00 28 0.00
D Mccray Indiana 3 -1.95 10 60 0.33 5 0.00
Zach Brown Wisconsin 3 -3.14 11 37 0.33 7 0.00

Not noted on the stat detail, but any passes from running backs are included in the total value figure.

Player - WR - Season
Player - WR - Season
Player Team G Value Value+ Rec Yards TD
Eric Decker Minnesota 4 8.60 5.35 8.75 124 1.00
Keith Smith Purdue 4 7.73 5.61 7.00 89 0.50
Mark Dell Michigan State 2 6.59 3.52 5.50 97 0.50
B Cunningham Michigan State 3 6.42 3.37 6.00 79 1.00
Keshawn Martin Michigan State 2 5.47 3.35 2.50 76 1.00
D Sanzenbacher Ohio State 4 5.31 5.13 3.00 69 1.00
Derek Moye Penn State 4 5.22 3.05 3.75 63 0.50
Trey Stross Iowa 2 5.15 4.09 4.00 53 0.00
Isaac Anderson Wisconsin 3 5.11 4.49 3.33 78 0.33
Blair White Michigan State 3 5.07 3.49 4.67 62 0.67
Tandon Doss Indiana 3 4.65 2.58 5.67 80 0.00
D J-Koulianos Iowa 2 4.59 1.90 3.00 44 0.50
Chaz Powell Penn State 4 4.27 3.60 3.75 53 0.50
Aaron Valentin Purdue 4 4.23 2.32 4.25 43 0.50
Nick Toon Wisconsin 3 4.10 0.24 4.00 55 0.67
B Mitchell Northwestern 1 4.05 4.05 4.00 38 1.00
Drake Dunsmore Northwestern 3 3.72 2.24 5.33 58 0.33
Andrew Brewer Northwestern 3 3.71 2.62 3.00 45 0.67
Garrett Graham Wisconsin 3 3.65 1.24 4.67 63 1.00
Devier Posey Ohio State 4 3.46 1.85 3.75 40 0.25
Graham Zug Penn State 3 3.22 2.66 4.00 51 0.67
D Fields Northwestern 3 3.15 2.75 4.00 32 0.33
Greg Mathews Michigan 2 3.13 1.17 3.50 43 0.50
J Hemingway Michigan 3 3.01 2.54 2.33 37 0.67
Sidney Stewart Northwestern 1 2.76 0.74 5.00 43 0.00
Kevin Koger Michigan 3 2.76 2.70 2.67 35 0.67
Max Dedmond Indiana 2 2.23 1.57 3.00 23 0.50
D Belcher Indiana 3 2.15 0.05 4.33 41 0.00
T Turner Indiana 4 1.84 -1.12 4.75 41 0.25
Z Markshausen Northwestern 3 1.68 0.55 5.67 64 0.00
Lanc Kendricks Wisconsin 1 1.39 1.39 4.00 35 0.00
Mickey Shuler Penn State 2 1.08 -0.53 1.00 4 0.50
Kyle Adams Purdue 4 -0.06 -1.47 3.50 27 0.00


Value column is on completions only, Value+ column is all in, catches and targeted incompletions/interceptions. Not noted on the stat detail, but any runs (Tandon Doss) or passes from wide receivers are included in the total value figure.

Wide receivers' value numbers will always skew high because they don't have much for negative plays working against them, they just don't get the ball if they make a bad play, so even with the adjusted numbers, the totals are generally a self-selected group.



Players
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By The Numbers

Comments

Blue_n_Aww

September 30th, 2009 at 3:49 PM ^

Two things: 1. Nichol isn't even close to the passer that Clark is, Clark also has a much better team around him, so Nichol will rely on his legs more than Clark will. 2. Nichol may be a better runner than Clark is. Seriously, Nichol is a run first QB; Clark can run when he needs to, but is a passer first.

Joined: 08/11/2009

MGoPoints: 1949

The Mathlete

September 30th, 2009 at 7:31 PM ^

Incompletions produce negative value and are included in the QBs overall numbers. The value of the negative depends on the situation. As noted, the receivers have two metrics. The Value metric does not change if a receiver is targeted but the pass is incomplete. However, the value+ metric brings in the incompletions and the receivers are dinged if an incompletion is thrown their direction.

Joined: 10/01/2008

MGoPoints: 2905

The Mathlete

September 30th, 2009 at 7:30 PM ^

Couple things to note. Notice how the value+ is much lower in relation to the value for the MSU receivers versus receivers near them in the rankings. This means they are being targeted a lot, they are making some plays but there are also being targeted more. The second thing to note is that MSU plays 2 QBs. Their QBs combined would be the #1 QB in the conference in total value added, and in the team rankings, MSU is first in overall pass offense.

Joined: 10/01/2008

MGoPoints: 2905

COB

October 1st, 2009 at 10:17 AM ^

I commend your efforts on this, very interesting stuff. However, I must say that this wanders into saber-metrics voodoo with values for QBs (assumption on similar weighting issues in remaining analysis). To have Denard Robinson's value be higher than Scott Tolzien is a little absurd. Just look at the chart and say aloud "19 yards passing per game, 11 total attempts, a 43.3 qb ratings is a higher aggregate statistical value player than a qb with a 66.7% cp, 8td/2int, 221 ypg and the highest qb rating in the league." I guess yards per game, completion percentage/rating and td/int ratio are vastly under-valued?

Joined: 11/17/2008

MGoPoints: 869

The Mathlete

October 1st, 2009 at 11:40 AM ^

On Denard, this is adjusted to zero, so some players are negative, its not like more plays automatically mean higher ratings. Denard has been pretty effective the plays he has participated in. Plus, QB ratings don't take into account rushing stats. The QB ratings are just that QB ratings, not passer ratings. As for Tolzien, remember, the NCAA/Big 10 official stats include games against 1AA competition, I do not. Second, everything is opponent adjusted. Tolzien has two solid games, a +6 against MSU and a +4 against Northern Illinois. However, he had a mediocre (not bad) performance against Fresno State, who so far hasn't exhibited a great pass defense. It's all about situation and opposition.

Joined: 10/01/2008

MGoPoints: 2905