Nobody is Betting on the Maize and Blue

Submitted by jamiemac on

I am sure that comes as no surprise to anyone. A quick perusal through the main stream media sites like ESPN, CFN as well as the blogosphere reveals that the Utah Utes Bandwagon tomorrow afternoon is pretty much damn well full. Now, I am not here to ring up those short sighted fools for blindly taking the Boys from the Beehive State. Despite most going against UM tomorrow, an interesting meme is developing as I read through a lot of those predictions. Many are going with the Utes, but also mentioning a caveat somewhere along the lines "Michigan will be much better than people expect this season, but they'll fall just short of the more experienced Utes." Ok, so at least thats an improvement after most of the off season where a lot of people expected us to be bedfellows with Indiana in the Big 10 standings.

What I want to talk about here, however, is the point spread. Michigan is still favored, so obviously when all these experts are picking Utah to win, they're gobbling up the points as well. Utah is the prototypical publid dog, one whose bark sounds so attractive and tough that everyone and their mother collars it. The line movement of this game bears that out.

Back in a UV in the middle of summer, Brian linked to the Las Vegas Sports Consultants, a handicapping forum and research site, that had released an initial line of UM -7 over Utah. In a subsequent diary, I theorized that line would not be valid for very long. Since LVSC is not an actual site where you could place I bet, I said expect that when the real books come out with a line, to see something much smaller, perhaps as close to a field goal. The public would subsquently jump on Utah and drive the number down even farther.

I was kinda, sorta correct. The first official live line I saw was 5.5 at various offshores from BoDog, Pinnacle, 5Dimes and Sportsbook.com. It took about two weeks of August betting, but the line plunged at all those sites to 3.5. It has stayed firm at the number for the second half of this month. This morning I am seeing that the hook has, at least temporarily, been chopped off and UM is an even 3-point favorite. We'll see if it dips below three. I might be interested at that point as the public keeps buying Utah. I am a big fan of fading the room, mostly because I have never met a cash poor bookie.

In each of the last two years, the Utes--always a solid underdog--have failed miserably against a BCS school in the season lid lifter. In both those games, vs UCLA and Oregon State, the Utes struggled putting up points. Despite the quality of Brian Johnson at QB, they wont be lighting up the scoreboard tomorrow. Utah also gave up 22 sacks in their six regular season games vs bowl opponents last year, so I think our pass rush will be a big factor.

Of course, the real rub is that nobody is expecting either team to score much. I know, not really breaking news, is it? Tomorrow's Over/Under total is either 40 or 40.5, depending on the book. That is the lowest total on the board for the entire weekend. I cant remember any other time where the Michigan game had this low a total put on it and was the lowest on the board. There are a couple of games in the 41.5 to 42.5 range, but just about every other game has at least another TD added to the O/U line.

While the actual line for tomorrow's game has been plummeting all August, the lines for Michigan's "games of the year" this season have stayed steady. I did a separate diary that broke down the lines released for the ND, PSU and OSU games. Those lines have not budged at all and remain with Michigan decided underdogs: +3.5 vs ND, +9.5 vs PSU and +14.5 vs OSU.

I can guarantee these lines will change dramatically based on tomorrow's actual UM performance. If Michigan lays an egg, those lines will rise. Heck, even if they lose close, I think the public will basically have the expectation that UM is heading towards a ND '07 disaster and look to fade the Wolverines until proven otherwise. Considering OSU and PSU will win their games tomorrow by a combined score of 97-9 and ND does not play (which means they can only look better in the minds of the pundits....lol), a Michigan loss will set off more alarm bells than are going on now. But, if they win and look good in the process, many folks might re-evaluate and consider investing in the Wolverines. That is esepcially the case for the ND and PSU games. As much as I would like to grab close to double digits when they play PSU, I would settle for a line of less than a TD because that would mean Michigan is already outperforming the expectations of the experts in the desert and Joe Public.

Comments

tigersjunkie

August 29th, 2008 at 12:09 PM ^

Did you hear how Greg Matthews said that he wouldn't be surprised if Michigan put up 40-50 points! Let's hope he is on to something.

I don't understand why we watch ESPN and all the other programs expecting to hear some "expert" analyst who is supposed to know more than we do. These guys don't know what is going to happen. They get paid to run their mouths for what??...Remember last year they predicted Louisville (and Michigan) to be battling for the NC. They tend to change their predictions on a weekly basis. They are the ultimate flip-floppers. We won't know what Michigan has until tomorrow. Only after the first few weeks can we make a educated prediction on how the season will turn out. I just don't listen to anything these so called "experts" say.

jamiemac

August 29th, 2008 at 12:17 PM ^

So, what you're saying is Greg Matthews is all over tomorrow's over! Hmmm, very interesting.

But, I am right there with you. I am dog tired of both the overly pessimistic and optimistic analysis heading into the season. Its about time we get this show on the road. Time for speculation to stop. Pretty soon we get to break down what is actually working and not working and have tangilbe, on-field evidence to look at.

Win or lose tomorrow, I sure am excited for that and just to finally see them play.

Polisci

August 29th, 2008 at 12:48 PM ^

Oh man, I love that over! I see tomorrow being all about what Michigan does and doesn't do. That is, most of the points scored tomorrow will be a result of Michigan's offense scoring TDs and Michigan's offense turning it over and giving the short field to Utah. I see lots of points and lots of turnovers.

hat

August 29th, 2008 at 2:30 PM ^

I don't know about betting the over. I think our offense is going to really struggle out of the gate. I would not be surprised to see a 17-14 type of game.

AKWolverine47

August 29th, 2008 at 6:30 PM ^

3:30 can't get here fast enough. I for one am sick and tired of having to read and post what I think is going to happen. I'm just as guilty as the next man or lady. I have never been this jacked for Michigan football in my 28 years of life. Although my 5-0 record of attending Michigan/Ohio State games is right there. When I pee I see maize, when I see construction projects I think of the Big House renovation, when I see references to the war in Iraq, now I'm just babbling about nonsense. I can't stop thinking about Michigan and I'm worried. This from a guy who witnessed last years opening day debacle and tried to Google Lloyd Carr's address albeit drunk, to let him know how I felt. Thankfully I didn't act out my thoughts on that one. Go Blue.

Meeechigan Dan

August 29th, 2008 at 6:33 PM ^

Nicely done, Jamie. I agree. If time allowed, I was going to publish an analysis that paints a much brighter picture than most have. Time did not allow.

The defense will lead the way and the offense will only need to generate about 24 points a game to win 9 games. And who better to manufacture points than RR? People are going to realize after about two quarters of football that Michigan's defense is the real deal. Then predictions will mysteriously begin to be "updated," with 7-5 and 6-6 predictions becoming 8-4 and 9-3.

The competition is just not that much better.

Blue Durham

August 29th, 2008 at 10:16 PM ^

If time allowed, I was going to publish an analysis that paints a much brighter picture than most have. Time did not allow

MDan, I enjoyed your blog back when you were keeping it up to date, but clearly you are spending too much time on you teeth and hair hygene to do such things anymore.  But I do agree with your analysis.

Michigan covers easily; Utah is at a huge disadvantage vis-a-vie preparation.