Home
i'm an actor, not a reactor

Primary links

  • About
    • $upport (lol)
    • Ethics
    • FAQ
    • Glossary
    • Privacy Policy
  • Contact
  • MGoStore
    • Hail to Old Blue
  • MGoBoard
    • MGoBoard FAQ
    • Michigan bar locator
    • Moderator Action Sticky
  • Useful Stuff
    • Depth Chart By Class
    • Hoops Depth Chart by Class
    • 2017 Recruiting Board
    • Unofficial Two Deep
    • MGoFlickr
    • Diaries, Windows Live Writer, And You
    • User-Curated HOF
    • Where To Eat In Ann Arbor
  • Schedule/Tix
    • Future Schedules (wiki)
    • Ticket spreadsheet
Home Diaries umhero's blog

Navigation

  • Forums
  • Recent posts

User login

  • Create new account
  • Request new password

MGoElsewhere

  • @MGoBlog (Brian)
  • @aceanbender
  • @Misopogon (Seth)
  • @Aeschnepp (Adam)
  • @BISB
  • @EUpchurchPhoto
  • @FullOfTwitt (Fuller)
  • Hail to the Victors 2016
  • MGoFacebook
  • MGoPodcast
  • WTKA
  • Instagram

Michigan Blogs

  • Big House Blog
  • Burgeoning Wolverine Star
  • Genuinely Sarcastic
  • Go Blue Michigan Wolverine
  • Holdin' The Rope
  • MVictors
  • Maize 'n' Blue Nation
  • Maize 'n' Brew
  • Maize And Go Blue
  • Michigan Hockey Net
  • MMMGoBlueBBQ
  • The Blog That Yost Built
  • The Hoover Street Rag
  • The M Zone
  • Touch The Banner
  • UMGoBlog
  • UMHoops
  • UMTailgate
  • Wolverine Liberation Army

M On The Net

  • mgovideo
  • MGoBlue.com
  • Mike DeSimone
  • Recruiting Planet
  • The Wolverine
  • Go Blue Wolverine
  • Winged Helmet
  • UMGoBlue.com
  • MaizeRage.org
  • Puckhead
  • The M Den
  • True Blue Fan Forum

Big Ten Blogs

  • Illinois
    • Illinois Loyalty
    • Illinois Baseball Report
  • Indiana
    • Inside The Hall
    • The Crimson Quarry
  • Iowa
    • Black Heart, Gold Pants
    • Fight For Iowa
  • Michigan State
    • The Only Colors
  • Minnesota
    • GopherHole.com
    • The Daily Gopher
  • Nebraska
    • Corn Nation
    • Husker Max
    • Husker Mike's Blasphemy
    • Husker Gameday
  • Northwestern
    • Sippin' On Purple
    • Lake The Posts
  • Notre Dame
    • The House Rock Built
    • One Foot Down
  • Ohio State
    • Eleven Warriors
    • Buckeye Commentary
    • Men of the Scarlet and Gray
    • Our Honor Defend
    • The Buckeye Nine
  • Penn State
    • Slow States
    • Black Shoe Diaries
    • Happy Valley Hardball
    • Penn State Clips
    • Linebacker U
    • Nittany White Out
  • Purdue
    • Boiled Sports
    • Hammer and Rails
  • Wisconsin
    • Bruce Ciskie

Links of Note

  • Baseball
    • College Baseball Today
    • The College Baseball Blog
  • Basketball
    • Ken Pomeroy
    • Hoop Math
    • John Gasaway
    • Luke Winn/Sports Illustrated
  • College Hockey
    • Chris Heisenberg (Class of 2016)
    • College Hockey Stats
    • Michigan College Hockey
    • Hockey's Future
    • Sioux Sports
    • USCHO
  • Football
    • Smart Football
    • Every Day Should Be Saturday
    • Matt Hinton/Grantland
    • Football Study Hall
    • Football Outsiders
    • Harold Stassen
    • NCAA D-I Stats Page
    • The Wizard Of Odds
    • CFB Stats
  • General
    • Sports Central
  • Local Interest
    • The Ann Arbor Chronicle
    • Arborwiki
    • Arbor Update
    • Ann Arbor Observer
    • Teeter Talk
    • Vacuum
  • Teams Of The D
    • Lions
      • Pride of Detroit
    • Pistons
      • Detroit Bad Boys
      • Need4Sheed
    • Tigers
      • Roar Of The Tigers
      • Bless You Boys
      • The Daily Fungo
      • The Detroit Tigers Weblog
    • Red Wings
      • Winging It In Motown
      • On The Wings
    • Michigan Sports Forum

Beveled Guilt

Site Search

Diaries

  • New
  • Popular
  • Hot
  • Thirteen unlucky minutes (TL;DNR-This is a bit of rant about the refs)
    docwhoblocked - 2 weeks ago
  • Fan Satisfaction Index End of Season Bball Survey
    OneFootIn - 2 weeks ago
  • How likely are we to revert to the mean?
    Bo Glue - 2 weeks ago
  • It's time to avenge Villanova's 1985 NCAA tourney upset over Michigan
    Communist Football - 2 weeks ago
  • 14 Months Ago: The Fire Beilein Threads.
    stephenrjking - 3 weeks ago
  •  
  • 1 of 2
  • ››
more
  • This Month in MGoBlog History - March 2008: Pryor isn't coming, Boren has left, and some academic fraud allegations sprinkled in
    Maize.Blue Wagner - 215 comments
  • The Ballad of Jordan Poole
    k.o.k.Law - 176 comments
  • 14 Months Ago: The Fire Beilein Threads.
    stephenrjking - 91 comments
  • PreSpring Football updates from Sam Webb
    AZBlue - 90 comments
  • Thirteen unlucky minutes (TL;DNR-This is a bit of rant about the refs)
    docwhoblocked - 61 comments
  •  
  • 1 of 2
  • ››
more

MGoBoard

  • New
  • Recent
  • Hot
  • Schembechler Hall practice field ripped out (photos)
    11 replies
  • The Evolution of Commerce - What Industries are Dying, What's Thriving?
    62 replies
  • Softball Wins Series Opener Over Maryland, 6-0
    7 replies
  • OT: How do some student-athletes finish a bachelors so quickly (to transfer)?
    54 replies
  • OT: Avicii dead at 28
    65 replies
  • Chase Young becomes highest drafted Michigan lacrosse player
    20 replies
  • Podcast discussion on the conference
    31 replies
  • Matthews Declares WITHOUT agent
    45 replies
  • OT - Jalen Hurts possibly looking to transfer
    118 replies
  • Game Day Condos - who's gonna buy one?
    70 replies
  • OT: Arsene Wenger set to retire from Arsenal FC
    51 replies
  • OT: The Cube Inaccessible Until Fall 2019
    22 replies
  • It’s Friday - Time to POSBANG!!
    81 replies
  • RIP Earle Bruce
    47 replies
  • Final 2018 Basketball COMPOSITE Rankings
    34 replies
  •  
  • 1 of 6
  • ››
  • OT: Map of college stadiums that sell alcohol
    93 replies
  • Schembechler Hall practice field ripped out (photos)
    11 replies
  • The Evolution of Commerce - What Industries are Dying, What's Thriving?
    62 replies
  • OT - Jalen Hurts possibly looking to transfer
    118 replies
  • OT: Avicii dead at 28
    65 replies
  • OT: Gregg Popovich's wife Erin dead at 67
    24 replies
  • Game Day Condos - who's gonna buy one?
    70 replies
  • Softball Wins Series Opener Over Maryland, 6-0
    7 replies
  • It’s Friday - Time to POSBANG!!
    81 replies
  • Matthews Declares WITHOUT agent
    45 replies
  • Podcast discussion on the conference
    31 replies
  • OT: How do some student-athletes finish a bachelors so quickly (to transfer)?
    54 replies
  • Karsen Barnhart - did we cool on him?
    92 replies
  • OT: Arsene Wenger set to retire from Arsenal FC
    51 replies
  • Chase Young becomes highest drafted Michigan lacrosse player
    20 replies
  •  
  • 1 of 6
  • ››
  • Why should we be optimistic about 2018 M football?
    273 replies
  • Belleville coach Jermain Crowell mad at UM again
    244 replies
  • Police investigating Elysee Mbem-Bosse for death threat against Harbaugh
    224 replies
  • "Being Not-Rich at UM" Guide
    168 replies
  • Buckle Up
    159 replies
  • Scouting the Enemy: Ohio State QBs are Good
    158 replies
  • Semi-OT: What sports would you fix?
    158 replies
  • Elysee Mbem-Bosse disturbing tweets
    157 replies
  • Whats the Best Way to Make Flight Arrangements?
    149 replies
  • Wagner to NBA
    141 replies
  • Urban Meyer throws more shade at Michigan
    141 replies
  • FB new Nutrition plan under Herbert is well received by players
    132 replies
  • What past season would you have liked to see an Amazon-style documentary on?
    121 replies
  • OT: best-selling musical artists by state of birth
    120 replies
  • OT - Jalen Hurts possibly looking to transfer
    118 replies
  •  
  • 1 of 6
  • ››

Support MGoBlog: buy stuff at Amazon

The NFL Uncapped Year & Donovan Warren

By umhero — December 4th, 2009 at 1:29 PM — 25 comments
Filed under:
  • Donovan Warren
  • NFL Uncapped Year

With Donovan Warren’s announcement that he was leaning toward entering the NFL Draft, I thought I would try to understand a major variable I’m sure he’s considering when making his decision, the Uncapped Year.

 

The potential of a 2010 uncapped year in the NFL will have many college underclassmen considering the draft this year.  I’ve seen several mock drafts that include names like Ryan Mallett, Jevan Snead, and Terrell Pryor just because of the possible payday.

 

There are two big reasons that underclass players, even those mentioned above, would be wise to consider the draft this season: 

 

First, it may be hard to believe when Matt Stafford gets $72 million before he throws a pass, but the NFL currently has a rookie salary cap as a result of the 2006 CBA.  The league-wide salary cap rises each year as league revenues increase, when this happens, the Rookie Cap rises too.  However, if 2010 is an uncapped year then the rookies won’t be subject to a cap either, so regardless of where a player is selected he can try to break the bank.

Second, and more motivating than no cap in 2010, is the possible lockout in 2011.  If the NFL can’t agree to extend the collective bargaining before 2011 then the owners will lock out the players.  This would mean incoming rookies wouldn’t get paid anything until the league settles on a new system.  Any new system would likely include a rookie salary slotting system similar to the NBA, which would limit rookie pay in their first contract.  A smart player would want to get under contract now to not only avoid the slotting system but also to begin earning time toward free agency.

 

If you are interested in the business of sports, the issues surrounding the NFL’s cap future can be fascinating.  You would assume that an uncapped year would appeal to the players, since they would be able to command high salaries.  The truth is the league has put restrictions in the contract to prevent a free agent period of drunken spending.

 

1) In 2010, free agency will require six years of service instead of four years, so many of the players who could take advantage of the uncapped year will be stuck in their original contracts.

 

2) Teams will have three tags to use to restrict free agents.  Currently, a team can use either a franchise tag (average of the top five salaries at a position) or a transition tag (average of the top ten salaries at a position) on any one player on the club to protect the team from losing the unrestricted free agent. If the NFL has an uncapped year in 2010, teams will have use of one franchise tag and two transition tags. So the top three players who are eligible for free agency on a roster can be protected.

 

3) Teams that go deep in the playoffs will have free agent signing restrictions.  According to Article XIX of the CBA titled "The Final Eight Plan", The four teams that make the league championship games can't sign an unrestricted free agent unless and until they lose one of equal or more value; the four losing teams in the divisional round can sign only one high-priced unrestricted free agent without having to lose one of their own. Once that maximum exception is burned, they are restricted like the top four teams. But they can sign as many mid-level free agents as they want.

 

As you can see, it is unlikely that an uncapped year will lead to a spending spree since few of the best players will be available, and 25% of the teams in the league will be limited if they pursue top free agents.   Chances are the free agent pool will be filled with over-rated castoffs and over-the-hill stars; not the kind of players you can build a championship team with.  Especially if they may not even play in 2011.

 

In reality, the NFL Players Association is trying hardest to negotiate a new contract before the March deadline because they’re afraid of the ramifications.

 

The NFLPA believes that the owners are going to use the uncapped year to clean up their books.  With no salary cap, there will also be no minimum salary. Right now, teams are forced to spend at least 85% of the salary cap.  With no cap teams could cut players with bad contracts without a cap hit and without a minimum team salary requirement owners could keep salaries low for the season to build up cash reserves in anticipation of the 2011 lockout.

 

It looks like the owners have created a great deal of leverage to negotiate the next new contract.  They will use the uncapped year to get out of bad contracts and save money, while locking in their best players.  Then they will threaten the lockout to get the NFLPA to sign a new deal for 2011. 

 

As Michigan fans, we should hope that a new long-term agreement is reached before the draft.  We should also hope that it includes salary slotting so that Donovan will be motivated to return to improve his draft stock. 

 

As NFL fans, we should root for a strong, capped league without a lockout.

  • umhero's blog
  • Login or register to post comments

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
December 4th, 2009 at 1:32 PM
#2
jrt336
Joined: 01/16/2009
MGoPoints: 4498
Pryor can't go.

Pryor can't go.

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
December 4th, 2009 at 1:52 PM
(Reply to #2) #3
DesHow21
DesHow21's picture
Joined: 07/29/2008
MGoPoints: 1552
Yes he cant and not just

for the reason you think. Sorry I had to go all MgoObes on you!

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
December 4th, 2009 at 1:54 PM
#4
TroyNienberg
Joined: 03/16/2009
MGoPoints: 140
Thanks

Very informative article, knew about the uncapped year but didn't know that it wouldn't have as much of an effect on current players as I originally thought.

Too bad you had to throw that Pryor comment in there, now everybody is just going to give you shit.

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
December 4th, 2009 at 3:12 PM
(Reply to #4) #5
umhero
umhero's picture
Joined: 07/26/2009
MGoPoints: 2476
I really thought it was

I really thought it was ridiculous whenever I saw Pryor's name in these mock drafts. I couldn't understand why anyone would think that he could go pro. I assumed these "experts" were delusional.

After learning the truth, I understand why he'd consider it. I'd be thrilled to see him go.

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
December 5th, 2009 at 8:28 PM
(Reply to #8) #6
jmblue
Joined: 11/07/2008
MGoPoints: 56290
Pryor literally can't go pro.

Pryor literally can't go pro. He's only two years removed from high school. He's required to wait another year.

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
December 4th, 2009 at 2:28 PM
#7
mdoc
mdoc's picture
Joined: 01/14/2009
MGoPoints: 5858
So if the salary cap goes,

So if the salary cap goes, then players who are being overpaid and are underproducing get reduced contracts or get cut? That doesn't sound like the worst thing in the world. I'd prefer a new CBA and have everything to continue as normal, but man if there's an uncapped year, things will get reeeeeally interesting.

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
December 4th, 2009 at 3:15 PM
(Reply to #5) #8
wolfman81
wolfman81's picture
Joined: 12/17/2008
MGoPoints: 1337
Not the worst thing in the world

Actually it kind of sounds like a free market and capitalism...

And continuing with this line of thought will get me neg-banged for bringing up politics.

God Bless America!

/politics

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
December 5th, 2009 at 12:58 PM
(Reply to #9) #9
Enjoy Life
Enjoy Life's picture
Joined: 07/02/2008
MGoPoints: 2634
You're Joking Right?

If you actually think the NFL is even close to a free market, you are delusional. Non-guaranteed "contracts", players controlled by owners until they reach "free agency" (hmmmm, sounds like they are really not "free" in other years), etc.

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
December 5th, 2009 at 6:24 PM
(Reply to #16) #10
The Bugle
The Bugle's picture
Joined: 10/22/2009
MGoPoints: 129
I think you have the poster's

I think you have the poster's point backwards. IME he was saying the NFL is typically an incredible controlled market, but if the 2010 "uncapped" year happens it would be a transition to the best approximation of a free market the NFL has seen in decades.

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
December 5th, 2009 at 7:21 PM
(Reply to #19) #11
umhero
umhero's picture
Joined: 07/26/2009
MGoPoints: 2476
But it won't really because

But it won't really because most of the players will still be stuck in the contracts they have, franchised, or transitioned. Teams will be able to keep all of the players they want. The only "free agents" will be those players the original team didn't want back.

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
December 4th, 2009 at 2:34 PM
#12
leftrare
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 1938
Source?

Excellent OP. Thanks for the information. Care to share where you got it?

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
December 4th, 2009 at 3:07 PM
(Reply to #6) #13
umhero
umhero's picture
Joined: 07/26/2009
MGoPoints: 2476
I read a variety of articles

I read a variety of articles on the web since I wanted to understand Donovan's options. I couldn't find any single source but by finding bits and pieces I was able to compose something relevant to us.

Pat Kirwin had a good summary on NFL.com at http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d808736ba&template=with-video&co...

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
December 4th, 2009 at 3:37 PM
#14
Sambojangles
Sambojangles's picture
Joined: 12/15/2008
MGoPoints: 3234
I can understand why the

I can understand why the uncapped year and CBA and everything affect the players at the top (Clausen comes to mind), but will there really be much difference for the players further down the draft board? It seems like the best projections for DW are 2nd-3rd round, and I'm guessing that there will not be as big a difference in salaries for players in that range. Maybe I'm completely wrong on this, though.

I think the possibility of a lockout is slim to none. There is no issue like in the NHL or NBA about whether to create a salary cap. The issues being discussed are relatively minor, and the lost revenues should be more than enough motivation for the sides to come to an agreement.

Lastly, assuming the free agent period changes from four to six years as you stated, will that affect everyone immediately, or will players be grandfathered in if their contracts started before the new agreement? If that's the case, then I can understand why the players would want to get their first contract signed now.

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
December 4th, 2009 at 4:22 PM
(Reply to #10) #15
umhero
umhero's picture
Joined: 07/26/2009
MGoPoints: 2476
1 - I don't know if it really

1 - I don't know if it really will effect players in the lower rounds, but I'm sure the agents will suggest that they can.

2 - I agree that the lockout is unlikely but the college players have no control of whether there will or won't so they may rather be safe than sorry. Also, it is likely that the next CBA will include slotted rookie salaries that will be lower than rookies are paid currently. For that reason, we should hope the deal is done before this draft, since the slotting might inspire Warren to come back.

3 - The six year free agent period is only effective for 2010. Players expecting to be free agents this year would have to live with their current contracts for two more years.

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
December 4th, 2009 at 5:43 PM
#16
Tater
Tater's picture
Joined: 08/13/2008
MGoPoints: 30564
I wonder what Warren's "line" is?

I would like to know how high Warren would need to be told he would be drafted in to feel that it is worth his while to declare this year.

A few projections:

CBS: first or second round, fourth at position
Randall Weida of fftoolbox: 18th pick
Walterfootball.com: second or third round, eighth at position
Draftnotebook.com: 23rd pick, St Louis
CDS draft.com: third round

I can't find much searching for this without some paywall blockage, but even this small sample is all over the place, from mid-first to third. And this does beg one question:

Would a third-rounder this year be better off than a first-rounder in 2011?

I ask this because Warren would return to a defense that "gets it" now, the same DC two years in a row for the first time since HS, and a better supporting cast which may result in his seeing more action come his way. Anyway, I hope he comes back; the growth may continue to be slow, but there is still the tantalizing possibility of a quantum leap next year.

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
December 4th, 2009 at 6:54 PM
#17
UMMAN83
UMMAN83's picture
Joined: 11/26/2009
MGoPoints: 1491
He is making a mistake ... but this is his call. Is he

CW caliber as a junior DB. No way. You can never have your senior year back. Go ask Henson. Keep thinking DW.

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
December 4th, 2009 at 9:54 PM
#18
geno
Joined: 11/23/2009
MGoPoints: 197
Pryor

How can Pryor go pro ? Don't you have to be three years out of high school to go pro in football ?

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
December 5th, 2009 at 5:51 PM
(Reply to #14) #19
Rbigdog222
Joined: 10/23/2009
MGoPoints: 14
Yes 3 years removed from high

Yes 3 years removed from high school. Pryor would have to be Jr. or a Redshirt Soph. which he is neither, so either the OP or the writhers of the article red was incorrect.

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
December 4th, 2009 at 10:35 PM
#20
bronxblue
Joined: 11/22/2008
MGoPoints: 59110
Good stuff. I liked the

Good stuff. I liked the stuff about the potential ramifications of a lock-out, though I agree it is pretty unlikely.

I do wonder if part of the reason Warren is looking to leave is because he doesn't figure to get much "better" as a CB with another year in college. DBs seem to be more born than created - you either have elite speed, good instincts, and flexible hips, or you don't. Sure, the technique might improve somewhat, but most guys who succeed as DBs in the NFL do so because they just have "it." We saw that with Woodson and, to a lesser extent, Marlin Jackson. I see a bit of it with Warren, but right now he probably would be lucky to be Leon Hall in the NFL. I'm not sure another year with Barwis or GERG would really change that reality.

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
December 5th, 2009 at 3:41 PM
#21
Wolverine In Exile
Wolverine In Exile's picture
Joined: 11/08/2008
MGoPoints: 5357
Legal NFLPA question

Is it possible as well that even if Donovan gets drafted low, as long as he makes a roster, he's in the NFLPA right? So if the lockout goes down as expected in 2011, do NFLPA players get union lock-out pay? Granted, it's not going to be as much as a full salary, but sure as hell more than a graduated senior who can't be drafted / signed b/c of a lockout....

When hockey went all mutually asured destruction during their lockout, I believe most of the college players who wanted to get drafted went and played AHL / ECHL until the NHL draft was greenlighted. NFL players don't have that option UNLESS....

The UFL is successful.
"And the first pick of the 2011 UFL draft, The California Redwoods select, Terell Pryor, Wide Receiver, the University of Ohio State"

(BTW- I tried to go to www.ufl.com and it directed me to the Univ of Florida's webpage... weird....)

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
December 6th, 2009 at 9:06 PM
#22
MC Hammer
Joined: 07/10/2008
MGoPoints: 6
and it's Terrelle, not Terell

and it's Terrelle, not Terell or Terrell

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
December 7th, 2009 at 1:39 AM
#23
MGOSAIL
MGOSAIL's picture
Joined: 09/14/2009
MGoPoints: 33
This is very interesting, and

This is very interesting, and it will be interesting to see what happens as the we get closer to draft day. I think that, after what has happened with the NHL we will see a new contract before March, and hopefully that will bring DW back as well. I also believe that a rookie salary cap won't have as large of an effect as a change from a 3rd to 1st round pick will, so it may all come down to if DW thinks he will go in the first round or not.

Obviously, I pray that he comes back. If our defense can get our offense on the field I think Tate and D Rob can get it done.

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
December 7th, 2009 at 11:25 AM
#24
tubauberalles
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 1101
NFLPA expects lockout

Through my worklife I interact a bit with the NFLPA and in a recent conversation heard that the NFLPA doesn't expect to reach a deal before a lockout. The thinking is that most of the players are too young to really remember difficult CBA negotiations and there is a number of new owners since the last time as well. Both sides apparently have a curiosity about what they might be able to gain through protracted negotiations, though the owners definitely have the upper hand right now. They think the players aren't prepared for what a labor lockout actually looks like and the owners think they can make some serious gains through pushing the players that far. I'm no expert in the CBA or current negotiations, but thought the attitude of the NFLPA was striking. The members, though, are very much behind the new president and that may also push the issue into a lockout.

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
December 8th, 2009 at 12:18 PM
#25
turfboy
turfboy's picture
Joined: 12/01/2009
MGoPoints: 41
what would pryor play in the

what would pryor play in the nfl? no way he plays qb with his slow release and poor accuracy/poor zone read skills

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
Powered by Drupal, an open source content management system
Theme provided by Roopletheme; sidebars adapted from Chris Murphy.