There is a very misleading and dated article in the WSJ (and cited in mgolicious below). It suggests that ND can overtake UM in win percentage this year. At one point during the season, that was true. Now, it is false.
Even if UM loses all the rest of their games and ND wins all the rest, UM is still ahead at year’s end (Worst UM .73663, Best ND .73632). (UM is roughly 3 games ahead of ND at this point and the most ND can pick up is 2.5, if we lose all our remaining games (going 0-2) and they win all theirs plus a bowl game (going 4-0)). Since ND is likely an underdog in 2/3 of the next games, we might be expected to lose 0.5 games by season’s end, then at most another .5 if ND wins a bowl. That would put our lead at roughly 2 games. In any case, the proximity of ND to our record should motivate our coaches and players for next year.
Over the next year, as this battle for the win pct is discussed, you may hear some Notre Dame fans argue that we shouldn’t count ties. That's been their claim to superiority. But it a completely bogus argument.
Win percentages are calculated by counting ties as 0.5 wins and 0.5 losses. You can’t ignore ties. Think of it this way.
"Two teams play 1000 games.
Team A (the kiss your sister team) played 10 games and went 9-1 but tied on all the other 990 games. The way some ND fans seem to want to calculate win percentage, Team A’s would be .900. But, hypothetically, if you were a bettor, you’d have to guess that the team would not win 9 out of every 10 games. They almost always tie.
On the other hand Team B (the kiss-your-girlfriend team) went 899-101-0. If you were a bettor, you’d have to guess that the team would win a lot more games than Team A. They win almost 90% of their games, while team A only wins 0.9%."
So, I’d like an ND fan who wants to forget ties, to answer this. Would you really take Team A over team B? Do you like kissing your sister that much?
Apparently , so, since ND players kiss their sister (tie games) 38% more often than UM does. So you might question the heading on the WSJ article: "ND Creeps up on UM Record": Maybe ND=Creeps-who-kiss-their-sister would be more appropriate.
(section in quotes is an argument I also made in response to the WSJ article cited below, but I would like also to show here the calculations to back it up).
UM At beginning of season 872 295 36
Now Plus 5-5
With ties counting .5 UM is now 895-318 pct= .73784
If UM loses last 2 games: (goes 5-7)
All time record is 877-302-36
895-320 with ties counting .5
ND at beginning of season: 831 285 41
Currently 6-3 so all-time is 837-288-41
857.5 – 308.5 with ties counting .5
If ND wins last 3 reg season games plus bowl ie goes 10-3
All time 841-288-41 Or 861.5- 308.5 with ties or win pct= .73632
So the worst UM can do is .73663, which is greater than
the best ND can do: .73632
Proportion of UM ties=31/(895+318.5)= .02556 currently
Proportion of ND ties= 41/(857.5+308.5)=.03516 currently or 38% more often than UMhttp://www.nationalchamps.net/NCAA/database/notredame_database.htm
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