All right so I am going to start this off by saying 2 things #1 UM’s win over WMU is great for everyone.  ND fans are more excited about this game than before, obviously the entire stadium was rocking with support of UM and the coaching staff and the entire team looked like they were having a great time.  Although everyone on the team didn’t experience last year, it looked like they all came together to put any fears of that repeating fully to bed.  I fully congratulate UM on their win and I mostly wish them success in the future.

 Before we move on to #2 I want to put up this disclaimer: You probably will not like what I am going to post, and I won’t hold it against anyone if it results in some lashing out, I was prepared for that long before I registered.  Also remember that quite a few posters actually requested this write up so here it goes….

#2 ND is going to tear UM's offense apart, too harsh? :).  So if you’re still with me, you would probably ask why is that?  Nevada was a great game for week 1 with their running QB a perfect example of what to expect next week, a prolific running game to test the entire defense against.  Not only did the defense perform well they shut Nevada out.  The ND offense spoke for itself, 500+ yards of total offense, 300+ of it through the air.  It looked like the Hawaii game all over again. If your still still reading, please don't take that statement #2 literally, it was just meant to weed out the undesirables 

Offensive Comparisons:

QBs

ND just faced a more refined, experienced and dynamic QB in Kaepernick, than either Denard or Tate are right now, he is a proven threat anytime he has the ball.  Racking up 2800 yards passing with 22 TDs and another 1300 yds on the ground with 17 more TDs and leading Nevada’s rushing attack to #3 in the nation last season.  ND not only kept him from scoring they held him to 149 in the air and 39 on the ground.  He was sacked 3 times, and pressured every time he tried to throw.

Denard ended the UM game going 2 for 4, both completions were high throws leading to acrobatic catches by receivers and little YAC.  The incompletions were both errant passes, with either the QB or receiver going the wrong direction or the ball being thrown away.  There were also occasions where he didn’t go through his entire sets of reads and took off running before any pressure came, never even seeing open receivers.  It was obvious to me that he wants to run, and doesn’t feel comfortable in the pocket.  That pocket is going to get much smaller next week with a constant pass rush.  Forcier did a much better job passing going 13 for 20.  Taking every pass he attempted in the first half, they were split pretty even with 5 under and another 5 over 15 yards.  The longer passes only produced 2 completions, both of which were TDs with one being an entirely blown assignment by WMU’s D.  The other 3 all fell incomplete with a couple being overthrown or bad route running.  The remaining TD was an absolute thing of beauty, hit the receiver in stride and got 6 out of it.

WMU’s pass rush ran out of gas early in the game for the most part, probably as a result having to cover the scrambling QBs.  ND did a great job keeping after Kaeupernick, there is no reason to think they will suffer the same effects as WMU.  Looking at the QBs alone it seems pretty obvious ND can expect more running from the “QB” position.  Whether the play is designed to be a run or not, both have shown they can scramble very well.  Tenuta blitzes with regularity and both freshman will be feeling pressure all day long.  If the 2s and 3s are in, the blitz still comes. I would expect Denard to be viewed as a RB first and he will be blitzed on regularly as if he is a RB standing behind center.  Forcier will probably get a different look, with his better arm, but there is no doubt Corwin Brown is comfortable leaving our corners on islands forcing teams to pass with 8 to 9 guys in the box.  I think Forcier will see the most time at QB again and Denard will come in on occasion for a change of pace.  Even with Denard’s speed I think he will have the hardest time against our defense with all the pressure he will be feeling.

RBs

With Minor out of commission in week one it will be interesting to see him again a year later.  He will be the wild card on offense, there is no good way to predict how many touches he will get, when in week 1 the RBs only accounted for 28 of the 50 carries.  Will he see more touches being the #1 guy than Brown did?  Won’t be able to answer that till the game is over.  With that said, I expect a lot of run support coming from the safeties with the already mobile QBs when the RBs do get carries you can expect the safeties to be right there.  Taua, Nevada’s #1 RB averaged 6.4 yds/c a year ago, and continued that against ND with 6.3 in week 1.  The majority of his yards came at the end of the game though when the defense was content to keep the clock running.

WRs

This will be an obvious upgrade from Nevada to UM.  I am excited to see what they will do against UM’s receiving corp.  Junior Hemingway is the biggest threat in the passing game and he showed that in week 1.  But unless UM is regularly sending out 2 or 3 WR sets, he is going to be in for a boring day of running.  Our secondary is not only talented but also deep, I counted 4 defended passes during the Nevada game and the 2 interceptions also came from the secondary.  UM did fully prove my skepticism of them using their TEs in receiving wrong.  It will be interesting to see if Koger will be a regular target of the QBs or if he has his best game behind him.  UM would not appear to be as big of a test this week despite the increase in talent, because the majority of offense seems to be focused on the ground; even if that does not continue the ND secondary has shown they’re more than ready.

Oline

UM’s line did a good job of protecting all the passers and opened up running lanes pretty well for the most part.  The WMU Dline and pass rush very obviously ran out of gas in the first half.  Keeping up with the spread, and chasing after the QB really took a toll on them.  The pass rush ND will bring is going to be constant, they blitzed from the first down to the last in week 1, and as guys tire out there is another ready to take his place.  Our LBs and DLineman looked in great shape and there was very little drop off as they rotated through.  The UM Oline will not face a regular pass rush like this all year, it will be a strong test of their strength and stamina, something I look forward to with Barwis’s pedigree behind them.

The Nevada offense overall averaged 2 runs for every pass last season, in week 1 they ended up with a more even distribution with about1:1.  As a comparison UM ended with a 3:10 distribution of pass to run in week 1, which is not surprising as the entire 2nd half came off as “its time to run the clock”. Removing those plays the ratio falls to 1:3 pass:run, which I would expect to be a more ideal distribution.  The increase in run plays will bring the speedier lineman and LBs to the field so don’t expect to see the same guys up front from ND as in the Nevada game.  Denard is fast, but unless he is running down the field he looks hesitant and indecisive, that is what the ND rush will take advantage of.  ND was content with a bend but not break mentality with Nevada, which allowed Kaepernick to turn a scramble into a positive play, while still preventing him from turning an 8 yard play into something more.  UM will be seeing an entirely upgraded defense from the WMU game.  WMU’s secondary was much worse than I expected, the defense overall were bad tacklers, they over-pursued the ball carriers getting themselves out of position and unable to make a play on the ball.  Denard’s big run is the perfect example of it, he ran right at them and they ran right past.  ND showed their disciplined tacklers and that they’re ready to make a play on the ball anywhere on the field, its aggressive and will turn mistakes into points.