My ND preview: UM Offense

Submitted by Irish on

All right so I am going to start this off by saying 2 things #1 UM’s win over WMU is great for everyone.  ND fans are more excited about this game than before, obviously the entire stadium was rocking with support of UM and the coaching staff and the entire team looked like they were having a great time.  Although everyone on the team didn’t experience last year, it looked like they all came together to put any fears of that repeating fully to bed.  I fully congratulate UM on their win and I mostly wish them success in the future.

 Before we move on to #2 I want to put up this disclaimer: You probably will not like what I am going to post, and I won’t hold it against anyone if it results in some lashing out, I was prepared for that long before I registered.  Also remember that quite a few posters actually requested this write up so here it goes….

#2 ND is going to tear UM's offense apart, too harsh? :).  So if you’re still with me, you would probably ask why is that?  Nevada was a great game for week 1 with their running QB a perfect example of what to expect next week, a prolific running game to test the entire defense against.  Not only did the defense perform well they shut Nevada out.  The ND offense spoke for itself, 500+ yards of total offense, 300+ of it through the air.  It looked like the Hawaii game all over again. If your still still reading, please don't take that statement #2 literally, it was just meant to weed out the undesirables 

Offensive Comparisons:

QBs

ND just faced a more refined, experienced and dynamic QB in Kaepernick, than either Denard or Tate are right now, he is a proven threat anytime he has the ball.  Racking up 2800 yards passing with 22 TDs and another 1300 yds on the ground with 17 more TDs and leading Nevada’s rushing attack to #3 in the nation last season.  ND not only kept him from scoring they held him to 149 in the air and 39 on the ground.  He was sacked 3 times, and pressured every time he tried to throw.

Denard ended the UM game going 2 for 4, both completions were high throws leading to acrobatic catches by receivers and little YAC.  The incompletions were both errant passes, with either the QB or receiver going the wrong direction or the ball being thrown away.  There were also occasions where he didn’t go through his entire sets of reads and took off running before any pressure came, never even seeing open receivers.  It was obvious to me that he wants to run, and doesn’t feel comfortable in the pocket.  That pocket is going to get much smaller next week with a constant pass rush.  Forcier did a much better job passing going 13 for 20.  Taking every pass he attempted in the first half, they were split pretty even with 5 under and another 5 over 15 yards.  The longer passes only produced 2 completions, both of which were TDs with one being an entirely blown assignment by WMU’s D.  The other 3 all fell incomplete with a couple being overthrown or bad route running.  The remaining TD was an absolute thing of beauty, hit the receiver in stride and got 6 out of it.

WMU’s pass rush ran out of gas early in the game for the most part, probably as a result having to cover the scrambling QBs.  ND did a great job keeping after Kaeupernick, there is no reason to think they will suffer the same effects as WMU.  Looking at the QBs alone it seems pretty obvious ND can expect more running from the “QB” position.  Whether the play is designed to be a run or not, both have shown they can scramble very well.  Tenuta blitzes with regularity and both freshman will be feeling pressure all day long.  If the 2s and 3s are in, the blitz still comes. I would expect Denard to be viewed as a RB first and he will be blitzed on regularly as if he is a RB standing behind center.  Forcier will probably get a different look, with his better arm, but there is no doubt Corwin Brown is comfortable leaving our corners on islands forcing teams to pass with 8 to 9 guys in the box.  I think Forcier will see the most time at QB again and Denard will come in on occasion for a change of pace.  Even with Denard’s speed I think he will have the hardest time against our defense with all the pressure he will be feeling.

RBs

With Minor out of commission in week one it will be interesting to see him again a year later.  He will be the wild card on offense, there is no good way to predict how many touches he will get, when in week 1 the RBs only accounted for 28 of the 50 carries.  Will he see more touches being the #1 guy than Brown did?  Won’t be able to answer that till the game is over.  With that said, I expect a lot of run support coming from the safeties with the already mobile QBs when the RBs do get carries you can expect the safeties to be right there.  Taua, Nevada’s #1 RB averaged 6.4 yds/c a year ago, and continued that against ND with 6.3 in week 1.  The majority of his yards came at the end of the game though when the defense was content to keep the clock running.

WRs

This will be an obvious upgrade from Nevada to UM.  I am excited to see what they will do against UM’s receiving corp.  Junior Hemingway is the biggest threat in the passing game and he showed that in week 1.  But unless UM is regularly sending out 2 or 3 WR sets, he is going to be in for a boring day of running.  Our secondary is not only talented but also deep, I counted 4 defended passes during the Nevada game and the 2 interceptions also came from the secondary.  UM did fully prove my skepticism of them using their TEs in receiving wrong.  It will be interesting to see if Koger will be a regular target of the QBs or if he has his best game behind him.  UM would not appear to be as big of a test this week despite the increase in talent, because the majority of offense seems to be focused on the ground; even if that does not continue the ND secondary has shown they’re more than ready.

Oline

UM’s line did a good job of protecting all the passers and opened up running lanes pretty well for the most part.  The WMU Dline and pass rush very obviously ran out of gas in the first half.  Keeping up with the spread, and chasing after the QB really took a toll on them.  The pass rush ND will bring is going to be constant, they blitzed from the first down to the last in week 1, and as guys tire out there is another ready to take his place.  Our LBs and DLineman looked in great shape and there was very little drop off as they rotated through.  The UM Oline will not face a regular pass rush like this all year, it will be a strong test of their strength and stamina, something I look forward to with Barwis’s pedigree behind them.

The Nevada offense overall averaged 2 runs for every pass last season, in week 1 they ended up with a more even distribution with about1:1.  As a comparison UM ended with a 3:10 distribution of pass to run in week 1, which is not surprising as the entire 2nd half came off as “its time to run the clock”. Removing those plays the ratio falls to 1:3 pass:run, which I would expect to be a more ideal distribution.  The increase in run plays will bring the speedier lineman and LBs to the field so don’t expect to see the same guys up front from ND as in the Nevada game.  Denard is fast, but unless he is running down the field he looks hesitant and indecisive, that is what the ND rush will take advantage of.  ND was content with a bend but not break mentality with Nevada, which allowed Kaepernick to turn a scramble into a positive play, while still preventing him from turning an 8 yard play into something more.  UM will be seeing an entirely upgraded defense from the WMU game.  WMU’s secondary was much worse than I expected, the defense overall were bad tacklers, they over-pursued the ball carriers getting themselves out of position and unable to make a play on the ball.  Denard’s big run is the perfect example of it, he ran right at them and they ran right past.  ND showed their disciplined tacklers and that they’re ready to make a play on the ball anywhere on the field, its aggressive and will turn mistakes into points.

Comments

Irish

September 8th, 2009 at 2:26 PM ^

There was many a complaint last year with the number of blitzes and lack of sacks. It did not go un-noticed. They got pressure sometimes but it did not bring enough of a threat against the offenses we faced.

That being said I don't think I have ever seen ND blitz as many times as we did in week 1, with Tenuta calling the plays.

jsquigg

September 8th, 2009 at 5:01 PM ^

Another thing to keep in mind is game planning. Rodriguez showed that he could make things interesting with game planning with a talent deficit last year. Now he has the players to execute. I'm not trying to be a homer, but Weis hasn't showed me he can game plan for a big game. Rodriguez has a resume both good and bad with game preparation. It'll be interesting to see how that aspect plays out.

jokewood

September 8th, 2009 at 2:06 PM ^

Hawaii and "the team that lost to Hawaii last year", a.k.a. the reasons why everyone assumes Boise State will go undefeated, are given way too much credit by Notre Dame fans.

Every true road game against BCS opponent in the Chris Ault era:

--Notre Dame 35, Nevada 0 (2009, 0-1)... Notre Dame 1-0
--Missouri 69, Nevada 17 (2008, 7-6)... Missouri 10-4
--Northwestern 36, Nevada 31 (2007, 6-7)... Northwestern 6-6
--Nebraska 52, Nevada 10 (2007, 6-7)... Nebraska 5-7
...only Nevada TD off a pick-6
--Arizona St 52, Nevada 21 (2006, 8-5)... Arizona State 7-6
...one Nevada TD off a pick-6, another late in 4th qtr

And Notre Dame in its last 5 games versus BCS conference teams that didn't go 0-12: 0 wins, 5 losses

It's a little premature for Notre Dame fans to be talking about tearing anything apart.

ploeg

September 8th, 2009 at 2:38 PM ^

Thanks for this post, and for all of the comments. It is great to have a civilized discussion from both sides. The Irish position is nice to hear, and the comments from the Michigan fans have been fair and well reasoned. This remains the best Michigan site, and probably the best college football site on the internet.

colin

September 8th, 2009 at 4:48 PM ^

I thought the Nevada playcalling was pretty lackluster. The constant blitzing was probably responsible for the running lanes afforded Nevada and they took serious advantage. The interior of the D in general seemed to be pretty meh. But in the face of blitzes, particularly from the edge, where were the screens? The bubble screen is a staple of the Rodriguez offense because it's an excellent counter to the edge blitzes that defenses employ to stop the zone read game.

If ND can't line up and stop M's running game without adding an extra man in the box (which was the case against Nevada), I'm not convinced the defense will be especially able to stop M's offense.

FWIW, I think Nevada and WMU were fairly similar opponents that were dispatched with similar ease. I do think ND is a better team: they're basically a year older at every position with at least similarly good recruiting at those positions. So I expect ND will win, but it should be fairly close. We'll see if there's a turnover distortion or not.

michiganfanforlife

September 8th, 2009 at 5:32 PM ^

if they put two guys on Mike Floyd, UM will have a much better chance of staying in this game. I really hope they double team him the entire game. If they try to single cover him, the UM db's will pay for it. I still remember Floyd catching a couple of TD's over Boubacar in the Army All American game. He is something special, and Golden Tate is pretty dynamic as well.
One thing that no one is saying about WMU is that Tim Hiller threw for 4,000 yards last year, and is pojected as a 2nd round pick in next year's NFL Draft. That was a good QB Michigan just shut down, and that counts for something. Clausen has better athletic ability, a stronger arm, but I'm not sure about his decision making. I've seen him throw into double coverage many times, and I think he "pre-reads" his throws. This weekend will be a good test to see if he has improved his tendancy to make bad decisions.

Irish

September 8th, 2009 at 10:20 PM ^

Your right UM fully shut him down. They were able to bring steady pressure up front making him throw early. The secondary made all the tackles in front of them; also the depleted WR corp did take a toll on the passing game as well. At times the whole offense was just misfiring which you can also attribute to UM's defensive play, but there was a decent amount of them shooting themselves in the foot.

3rdGenerationBlue

September 8th, 2009 at 5:32 PM ^

Forcier or Clausen? IMO, Forcier will get the bulk of the snaps against ND and his ability to throw accurately/quickly on the run will bode well against the ND's blitz package. Plus Minor is solid in pass protection and Brown wasn't shy about it either against WMU. Bubble screens and slants mixed with draws should result in some decent yardage if they get to the second level. Yes, I said "if". I anticipate "Irish" to ask why an inexperienced freshman will have more success than Nevada's experienced mobile QB. Two reasons; surrounding talent and home field advantage. On the ND side, the Nevada game provided evidence that Clausen is living up to his predicted abilities. However, as stated by several others, Michigan will have more success than Nevada forcing Clausen to move around. Honestly, I'll take Forcier's combination of mobility/accuracy over Clausen so long as Graham et all make him move his feet.

Irish

September 8th, 2009 at 10:12 PM ^

Thats an interesting way to think about it, but a QBs success is not always controlled by his own actions or abilities. They have to have enough time to throw when required and the receivers have to be getting open and running the correct routes. Forcier's added mobility will certainly buy him extra time should he need it, but the ND secondary is going to be ready for them.

Of course the same can be said for Clausens success or failure in the game, if he doesn't have the protection or receivers available to him he will be in for a long day.

mth822

September 8th, 2009 at 6:08 PM ^

Whoa whoa whoa

wait up a minute 'peoples'

this is a game in which the Notre Dame Fighting Irish have a lil more to lose than the Michigan Wolverines. Guess what,"We're still rebuilding here in Michigan people!" Notre Dame needs to be 'rebuilt' by this game. This is a coronation moment for both Clausen and Weis. This is a big, if not huge game, for Mr. Charlie Weis.

If Michigan wins, think about it, with the big tens performance this past week, Michigan will more than likely still not be ranked. Rather Notre Dame will just slide out of the rankings. The idea that at week 2, a non ranked 3-9 of last year, can slide into the top 25 at 2-0 is ludicrous. AND I DON'T WANT MICHIGAN RANKED TILL THEY BEAT A RANKED TEAM ON THE ROAD!

Michigan, with freshman QB's, a never quit attitude(MUCH LIKE NAVY HAD), and the idea that WERE THE UNDERDOG can really make this a game.

Ty Butterfield

September 8th, 2009 at 6:58 PM ^

Glad you could post an interesting break down of the game. That being said, I really have no idea how this whole game will play out. I didn't know if Michigan would beat WMU. I can see the hate coming, but I am a HUGE Michigan fan. I have been lucky enough to have season tickets since 1995. I am also a realist. Michigan played like a bunch of schoolgirls last year and we all know the whole season sucked. Even the games they won they didn't play well. The offense could barely get first downs in most of the games let alone score. So yes everyone is excited by this victory. It was nice to just see Michigan move the ball. I really didn't think they would win by that much. I am just being honest. If Michigan had struggled then they hype would be much less. In the end I think it will be the secondary the does Michigan in. Donavon "pass interference" Warren is going to kill us. I dislike Jimmah, but ND has great receivers and I think that will be the difference. At least this season will not be as miserable as last year. Once Tate and Denard have a year of experience, watch out.

They are who we thought they were

Irish

September 8th, 2009 at 10:05 PM ^

I appreciate your honesty and it really came through in your post. I don't have any reason to think UM 09 is anything equal to UM 08. Win or lose, I don't think this game will have as big of a bearing on the overall season as some are thinking. It would no doubt be a happy exclamation point on a good season, but I don't think UM needs to win this game to be successful this season.

TIMMMAAY

September 8th, 2009 at 10:16 PM ^

I'm not so sure you really are a Michigan fan, first of all.

they played like a bunch of schoolgirls last year
That's a little harsh, no?

Even the games they won they didn't play well.
Well, the Wisconsin game was a pretty awful fist half, but after that, it was pretty good. We flat out killed Minnesota. The Miami game you are right about. We were also in a few tough games until late in the game as well.

Donavon "pass interference" Warren is going to kill us.
Ugh... ok?

HAIL-YEA

September 8th, 2009 at 6:40 PM ^

"Nevada was a great game for week 1 with their running QB a perfect example of what to expect next week, a prolific running game to test the entire defense against."

Really I will give you that the Nevada O lines up about the same, uses similar formations, but that's where the similarities end. I could very easily say WMU was a great game for week 1 with their accurate pocket passer, a pefect example of what to expect next week, a prolific passing team to test the entire defence against. Of course I feel thats just silly because talent and playcalling change everyhting. I am a bit nervous about this game but IMO the best thing that could happen to M is if ND dials up all those blitz's leaving all our playmakers on the outside 1 missed tackle away from 6. One thing left out in this post is the fact that RR is familiar with Tenuda and has had success against him, as well as GERG having plenty of success against the Irish last year in Nov at Syracuse. I expect the defense to play well, holding ND to 18-24 points. I just dont have a good feel as to what our offense will be able to do, though I doubt they'll get "shredded". Of course those are your opinions and who am I to question them. Just kindly come back to pay us a visit on Sunday and tell us all how the crow tastes.

The King of Belch

September 8th, 2009 at 7:50 PM ^

I don't think Tenuta and Brown will be blitzing all day. My opinon is they'll throw a lot of different looks at Tate and move a lot of guys before the snap in an effort to confuse him. Oh yeah, they'll blitz--you have to. But I think Tenuta may not have as many blitzes at his disposal because UM will spread them out--and they have more weapons than Nevada.

The running game worries me. Minor is prolly not gong to be healthy. That is a setback. He is the best RB we have; he's more decisive, quicker to the hole, has the best vision--he's simply the best running back Michigan has and it's not even close.

Tate didn't show me during the WMU game that he is a threat when running. He's a scrambler all right, and can throw on the run, and he can break containment to the outside--but I have to believe ND has better athletes than WMU and this will be a big test. Quite frankly, I don't want to see him running even though he must at least show ND he will to make UM's options more effective. We'll see Tate and Robinson on the field at the same time more this week and I have to believe UM has some passing packages for Denard. I also hope to see lil more misdirection this week in the running game.

Big question marks at receiver for Michigan. I do not see anyone stepping up so far if Hemmingway is injured or ND keys on him. Koger caught some passes as you mention--but will ND lose sight of him as WMU did a couple times? Is UM really ready to get Koger and Webb more involved? Stonum is a non factor and Matthews lacks speed and doesn't seem to be an overly enthusiastic participant.

We did gain an effective slot guy in Grady, and the downfield blocking by our receivers has improved.

With the above comments in mind, I'm willing to concede that UM had a vanilla game plan overall (especially after the outcome was decided)--just testing the waters a bit--and the playbook will expand this week. I just don't know that UM's base offense will be enough, and again, the running game really doesn't seem ready at this point to line up and go through, over, or around teams.

I'm confident of one thing, though: UM will not hand the ball over to Notre Dame like last year. UM really did improve in all areas except for TO's and the deep passing defense from game one to game two last year. I hope to see that again this week.

MGrad

September 8th, 2009 at 8:51 PM ^

Basing your analysis of the upcoming game by comparing Nevada and WMU feels like a semi-feeb-ish relativistic grope-up. While you note some players and stats, you can flush that all down the toilet as a predictor against better competition - for both teams. I expect ND to have held back players and plays just like Michigan did, and to compare the two scenarios will shed near zero light. Michigan's game plan was basically shut down after halftime. I assume ND was, too.

Both teams took care of their business in week one in decisive fashion. In a few days we will all see who is real. Unsurprisingly, I like Michigan's chances a lot more than you represent.