Michigan and Ohio share four mutual opponents.  The goal of this diary is to examine our respective performances against these opponents, and in doing so attempt to predict the winner of next Saturday's game.

 

Michigan State

When we played them:

At MSU.  Michigan started with an 80-yard, 10-play touchdown drive and then proceeded to punt on 8 consecutive drives before a second too-little-too-late score.  Michigan State's offense wasn't a juggernaut but it was good enough for three scores, and Denard's pick-six sealed the game. MSU 28-14.

When they played them:

At Ohio.  By the fourth quarter, the play-by-play announcers were considering ritual suicide in the press box in this abomination of a football game.  Ohio managed 178 net yards, 62 of which was on the final drive.  While MSU's defense looked dominant, their offense seemed determined to keep Ohio in the game, offering up two interceptions, two turnover-on-downs, and a missed field goal.  The 10 points they did manage seemed like an insurmountable lead, even after Ohio managed a desperation touchdown drive late in the fourth quarter.  MSU 10-7.

Caveats:

Our game was played in a trash tornado.  Ohio let Joe Bauserman, the human trash tornado, attempt 14 passes (although he did complete half of them and led their one touchdown drive).  Ohio still had all the Tatgate and Related Naughtiness players suspended.

Advantage:

Michigan State made both us and Ohio look bad.  Ohio came closer by final outcome but both games were ugly.  In Michigan's favor, we had to play on the road.  In Ohio's favor, they had to play without players that have since returned.  I'm calling this a PUSH.

 

Purdue

When we played them:

At Michigan: Ill-advised interceptions were the only thing stopping Michigan's offense as we racked up 535 yards and 34 points (plus a safety for 2 more).  Purdue scored on their first drive and then spent a lot of time punting until some 4th quarter drives against Michigan's prevent defense made the score look a bit closer than it actually was.  Michigan 36-14.

When they played them:

At Purdue: Purdue had 10 points before Ohio had 10 yards, and then hung on for dear life as Ohio clawed its way back.  Ohio was poised to complete the rally and take the lead for the first time when it scored a touchdown with 1:22 remaining, only to see the extra point blocked.  In OT, Purdue's touchdown trumped Ohio's field goal.  Purdue 26-23.

Caveats:

Ohio had all of their players except for WR DeVier Posey back, and QB Braxton Miller by this time had several games of experience under his belt.  Ohio played Purdue on the road while we got them at home.

Advantage:

Home field advantage is not nearly significant enough to detract from the fact that Michigan beat Purdue handily while Ohio seemed evenly matched against the Boilermakers.  Advantage, MICHIGAN.

 

Illinois

When we played them:

At Illinois.  Michigan got about 17 different monkeys off of our collective backs with this convincing win on the road.  A bevy of first-half miscues were the only thing that prevented this game from being over by halftime, because Illinois failed to mount a drive of more than 5 plays or 28 yards until late in the third quarter.  By the time Illinois found its offense Michigan had found ours as well... and ours was better.  Michigan 31-14.

When they played them:

At Illinois.  Illinois out-gained Ohio 285 to 228 as Ohio went 1 for 4 passing for the entire game, but Ohio got touchdown drives of 12 and 22 yards thanks to Illinois turnovers.  Those scores plus an opening field goal was enough for a victory.  Ohio 17-7.

Caveats:

Ohio still had two players suspended, I believe (honestly for Ohio games "suspended players" should be its own category in the box score).  If you are the kind of person that believes that Momentum is a mystical force that acts on sporting events rather than the product of mass and velocity, you will put emphasis on the fact that Illinois was on a six-game winning streak when they played Ohio, but a 3-game losing streak when they played us.

Advantage:

Ohio needed a heavy dose of Illinois mistakes to earn a 10-point victory.  Illinois needed a heavy dose of Michigan mistakes to stop us from going up by five scores.  Advantage, MICHIGAN.

 

Nebraska

When we played them:

At Michigan.  Do I really need to write this paragraph?  MURDERED HUSKERS FROM HELL TO BREAKFAST.  IF ANYONE FINDS TAYLOR MARTINEZ'S TEETH PLEASE RETURN THEM.  I think that about covers it.  Michigan 45-17.

When they played them:

At Nebraska.  Ohio had a 27-6 lead until Braxton Miller was injured and Joe Bauserman was forced back into action.  His 1-for-10 passing explains why Ohio didn't score any more points, but not why Ohio's defense gave up 4 touchdowns and 289 yards in the last quarter and a half.  Nebraska 34-27.

Caveats:

Ohio had to deal with home field advantage.  They had the Tatgate crew back but were still without the Related Naughtiness guys.  Michigan didn't get to play the Michigan Fergodsakes video on the scoreboards until halftime, after which it went from a one score game to a blowout.  I think that's Very Telling ^(TM).

Advantage:

The caveats are legitimate but Ohio's defensive collapse cannot be ignored.  I don't think this is as significant of a win for Michigan as it at seems at first, but never the less it's advantage, MICHIGAN.

 

Results

Three of the four mutual opponent comparisons favor Michigan, and the other is a push.  Ohio has been growing stronger as the season goes on and their players have returned from suspension, although this has not translated to better results.  Michigan has been growing stronger as well as the coaches learn what the players can and cannot do and the players benefit from the instruction of competent staff, and we have blowout victories in three of our last four games to show for it.  I can't promise a victory on Saturday, but if performance against mutual opponents means anything at all, we should be able to win the day.