MSU Recap: How was the play Mrs. Lincoln?
It is our nature to assign narratives to games. Against UConn it was brutal offensive efficiency. Against Notre Dame it was the first appearance of clutch Denard. UMass and Indiana it was praying our offense would have the ball last and Bowling Green was relief that we finally took care of business.
For me, Michigan St was a game of 7 plays. There were seven big plays on Saturday, and all of them went Michigan St’s way. There was plenty that didn’t go right in between, but those seven plays, but the seven plays masked what in some ways was a better performance than it felt, and in some ways worse. Denard’s three interceptions, two in the end zone (-10 points). Edwin Baker 61 yards, +5. Le’Veon Bell 41 yards, +4. Cousins to Dell for 41 yards +4. Cousins to Dell again, 44 yards, +3. Those seven plays, a 26 point swing. Only two plays for the offense +3 or higher, no running plays worth more than 1.4 points. All of the big plays went Sparty’s way.
What we hoped was not true now appears to be so: this team will not win Big Ten games without exceptional offensive performances. We are who we are at this point.
Game Notes
Rush Off: +5
Pass Off: 0
Rush Def: –15
Pass Def: –10
Field Position: Michigan +4
Denard was +3 on the ground and a +1 through the air.
Shaw and Smith were both +0 and Hopkins was +1 on two strong carries.
Cousins was +13 combined.
Baker was +7
Caper was +3
Bell was +7
I went 4-1 against the spread last weekend in my picks. I did not pick MSU, Purdue, Wisconsin or S Carolina to win like three of them did, but all four managed to cover as I predicted. Only Indiana let me down. The game went down as I predicted but the Indiana offense couldn’t quite put together enough garbage time points to cover the spread.
Projections
Michigan’s poor showing on Saturday, along with increases from Illinois, Ohio St, Purdue and Wisconsin, move the win projections down a game and a half or so. That is a huge drop for one week.
Remaining Schedule
Win odds drop across the board, Illinois is probably over valued but after back to back strong showings they look to be better than expected this season. Wisconsin is starting to come closer to conventional feelings, but is still too high.
Team – National Rank – Win Odds
Iowa – 26 – 54%
@ Penn St – 57 – 59%
Illinois – 23 – 48%
@ Purdue – 77 – 73%
Wisconsin – 52 – 72%
@ Ohio St – 9 – 17%
Projected Big Ten Standings
1. Ohio St
2. Michigan St
3. Illinois
4. Iowa
5. Michigan
6. Wisconsin
7. Purdue
8. Northwestern
9. Penn St
10. Indiana
11. Minnesota
Just like last week, Illinois and Wisconsin feel like they are reversed, but to date, the computer likes what Illinois has done a lot and still isn’t sold on the Badgers.
October 11th, 2010 at 12:50 PM ^
We are who we thought we were. Denard is indeed awesome but human after all.
However, Sparty wasn't Sparty. They played hard, were disciplined and executed well with no turnovers.
They were better than we thought they were.
October 11th, 2010 at 1:09 PM ^
I would submit that the incompletion nullified by an MSU penalty and the subsequent Keyshawn Martin reception where he ran all the way across the field to gain a first on third and long were certainly among the most important plays of the game.
October 11th, 2010 at 1:29 PM ^
that play pissed me off more than anything else, so I guess on my anger scale that play was the most important
October 11th, 2010 at 1:19 PM ^
The computer predictions are interesting, i cant believe that we only have a 1% better chance of beeting Purdue than Wisconsin. That simply cant be right.
I think state is a better team than most gave them credit for going into last week. And we could have one that game minus all the mistakes, further proof we can hang with anyone. but to win thise games we have have to play mistake free football on the offensive side of the ball, becuase the offense gets little assistance from the D.
October 11th, 2010 at 1:42 PM ^
i cant believe that we only have a 1% better chance of beeting Purdue than Wisconsin. That simply cant be right.
IIRC Mathlete has previously stated that homefield advantage changes the percentages 9% from the actual percentage on a neutral field. So that is an 18% swing once you consider we are at home against Wisconsin and travel to Purdue.
October 11th, 2010 at 1:24 PM ^
If Denard leads Roundtree and lofts to Stonum (or Stonum doesn't slow down - so not entirely Denard's fault on that one), we're up 14-0. Very different ball game the rest of the way.
October 11th, 2010 at 4:04 PM ^
"If the horse hadn't stopped to take a dump on the backstretch, he woulda won the race."
word, man.
October 11th, 2010 at 5:47 PM ^
heard that one. I like it.
Notice how I didn't say we would have won, just that 2 plays would have changed the tone far sooner than 6 or 7. Mistake-free will beat mistake-filled almost all the time.
October 12th, 2010 at 7:18 AM ^
One thing, too. MSU could have scored more points had they needed (or wanted). Their offensive stradgey is getting a lead and milking the clock in the fourth quarter.
Also, even if we score the first TD doesn't mean the second one will be there. It's a time continum sort of thing---watch Back to the Future, you'll get the idea.
October 11th, 2010 at 1:52 PM ^
Michigan went from a 22% chance of getting 11 wins to like, 1 1/2 %? Ugh. Not that I ever thought it was possible anyway, but what a grim shift ...
October 12th, 2010 at 9:19 AM ^
I keep reminding myself that a prediction of an 8-4 record this season would (and WILL) be outstanding, an outstanding turnaround from last season. It would be enough for a bowl game, enough for Rodriguez to earn several more years, in Ann Arbor, and enough to calm everyone the f- down. The 5-0 start was extraordinary, but everyone needs to remember that this team was going to lose games this year and we all started the season worrying like hell about the defense - neither of these realities are any different that what we thought starting out. So, although its a bummer they got hammered by Spartie, we're still on the right path in my opinion. However, we now have Denard, who has sparked the interest of the fan base that was disinterested and the interest of the nation!
October 12th, 2010 at 10:13 AM ^
I just have to say, from a completely illogical and emotional standpoint, I'm just tired of losing to just about every team that matters on the schedule.
October 11th, 2010 at 2:47 PM ^
I know that with each week things change but I don't put much stock into your analysis. It changes too drastically from week to week.
October 11th, 2010 at 3:13 PM ^
October 11th, 2010 at 3:54 PM ^
We're now likely to lose at, at home, to Illinois? Really?
October 12th, 2010 at 10:16 AM ^
He said the numbers were probably scewed due to back-to-back weeks of "better than expected" showings.
October 11th, 2010 at 4:46 PM ^
on future returns.
That is the disclaimer for all the Mathlete does. Now what would be very telling of his analytic method (but perhaps too painful to even contemplate) is if he applied this method to each game of the 2009 season as it progressed.
Was there the same slow improvement week to week while Michigan was building it's undefeated streak prior to last year's first loss?
Another request/suggestion I have is to find a way to measure the breadth of choice that exists in the offensive playcalling. I've heard it stated indirectly, and in a variety of ways, that the disadvantage of getting behind is that it begins to limit the variety of plays that will be called. A well coached defense will recognize this and start to bet against that narrowing option. Until the MSU game, Michigan has lead the entire game every time (ND the exception, but in reality only 3 points up with plenty of drive time, so no real playcalling limitation, in fact the coaching statement was that they were "trying to run time off the clock" ). So how do you measure this? A simple measure of Point Differential?
Maybe I'm thinking of the movie Rounders too much, but it seems like coming out in the second half we had lost too many of our chips, and it was just a matter of MSU increasing the pressure until the game was gone for good.
The statistics don't measure what many players speak about on their game performance. The difference in playing relaxed versus tense affecting confidence and performance. Does this explain the plentitude of dropped balls from receivers who seem to have had hands of glue up until last Saturday?
Mathlete is correct, we assign narratives to the things we cannot directly measure and explain. Our brains, our very psyche has evolved to fill in the gaps in our sensory experience that defy explanation otherwise. And that is why we watch each and every game. If this game were explained by numbers, like knowing all the cheat codes to your favorite video game, then the mystery is gone. The reason for watching is gone.
I guess the question that each fan has to answer for themselves is, "where do you place your faith? In seemingly arrogant unsupported claims proclaimed from THE_KNOWLEDGE? or in the always adjusting and recalculating, but statistically more likely (but never guaranteed 100%) results of Mathlete?
For me I don't focus on the narrative of the game, but on every game as a magical addition to the narrative of the season. At this point I could collapse, losing all faith, and declare this season dead and buried, just like 2009. Or I can see this past game as a time that a young team too desperately wanted to prove themselves to their coach, to their fans, to the world at large that this season was different. So desparate that they turned their eyes up field befor they saw the ball into their hands, so desparate that they told themselves not to run, that it was more mature to wait, and wait, and wait, before throwing it into coverage still too tight to be worth the risk.
And this saturday I turn the page to the new chapter, bright with hope. Hope that is many-dreaded, hope that is sieve-like to 3rd and long, hope that can't kick itself out of a brown paper bag.
But hope none-the-less. Seemingly too weak to jump out of Pandora's box, but yet the most enduring aspect of the human spirit.
October 11th, 2010 at 5:14 PM ^
We were outplayed by a better team.
We had too many flaws to cover. Like a pass defense currently ranked 119th out of 120 FBS teams and ranked the 102nd worst overall. Like a poor special teams showing compared to the Spartans.
Once our offense sputtered, we were in it deep.
We have a long way to go.
October 12th, 2010 at 1:06 AM ^
Can we erase this game?
I keep seeing this sentiment that we were totally outplayed.
I saw a TO margin that had been steadily positive instead end up in the negative.
I saw a game in which we entered the MSU redzone on 6 out of 11 possessions, which over the past 5 games would've meant 42 on the board. And instead ended with 17.
Sparty is a solid team, without a doubt, and deserved to win that game, but it seems that because of the last 2 years, the emotional spectrum of this board has shifted from "all-consuming glee" to "Kurt Cobain" in the span of one game largely because of a defense that broke instead of bent and Denard having an off day.
That's why I love these posts, because they value reason over emotion.
If you had told me after half the season, Michigan would be projected mathematically to have a 95% chance to win 7 or more games, I would've been ecstatic.
October 12th, 2010 at 8:11 AM ^
Correct me if I'm wrong, but a swing of 1.5 games off the season predictor is HUGE.
It's also, I think, a normalization. Our offensive output was not sustainable; our defensive output was.
I believe that defense is more of a constant than offense, and that this is why good offensive teams tend to lose a few games they normally wouldn't. Our defense is going to give up 30 to 40 points per game no matter who's doing it to us, provided their offense executes. We didn't make execution very hard for MSU -- the hardest thing they accomplished on offense was getting off a flea flicker and completing the pass even though it was covered (oh, and finally injured Mike Martin on their 9th chop block). My point: going forward any games we are going to win will most likely be done so by scoring a ton of points.
October 12th, 2010 at 9:42 AM ^
I think that you are exactly right. I also think that our tomato cans are going to get even worse on a "strength of schedule" type rating. Big 10 play is a real step up from what we had been seeing and we have a few games to suffer through.
God, I hope I'm wrong...
October 12th, 2010 at 9:35 AM ^
I'm a little amazed about Illinois being the favorite, given that part of their recent surge (IME) is because people have not been able to make enough adjustements to their new QB and running attack. Not saying UM will be that team, but that game is so far in the future that by then I expect them to come back to earth a bit. Beating a pretty bad PSU team on the road is impressive, but that OSU game was clearly one that the road team overlooked until Illinois punched them in the collective mouth.
October 12th, 2010 at 9:36 AM ^
What I learned from Saturday
What I took from this game was that the Michigan Offense can't just run over a good defense. I don't think that MSU didn anything more special than gap control defenses up front and then mixing up man and zone coverages behind it. And because they were disciplined and stayed in their gaps, they were able to contain our running game.
Looking forward
I really think that we have some games that will be difficult because of the opponent's defense:
- Iowa (10.2 ppg, 242.2 ypg, B10 #1)
- Penn State (18.0 ppg, 314.8 ypg, B10 #4)
- Illinois (17 ppg, 304.8 ypg, B10 #3)
- Wisconsin (19.0 ppg, 304.3 ypg, B10 #7)
- Ohio State (13.5 ppg, 236.3 ypg, B10 #2)
I think that these defenses are as good, or better than, the MSU defense (18.3 ppg, 336.7 ypg, B10 #T-5). Iowa's offense compares well to Indiana's offense (statistically) and Wisconsin and Ohio State are the #3 and #1 scoring offenses in the Big Ten respectively. Penn State and Illinois are gaining (on average) about 50 ypg LESS than Minnesota. Purdue's defensive stats: 21.0 ppg, 357.4 ypg, B10 #8. There seems to be a bit of a drop-off between Wisconsin and Purdue. Plus, their offense isn't doing so great...which leads to my projections:
Projections:
Really conservative: We beat Purdue. That's it. (6-6)
Conservative: We beat Purdue. We split against Illinois and Penn St. (7-5)
Moderate: We beat Purdue. We beat both Illinois and Penn St. OR split those games and win one against Iowa, Wisconsin, or OSU. (8-4)
A little crazy: We beat Purdue, Illinois and Penn St. We win one against Iowa, Wisconsin, or OSU. (9-3)
What I really want: I'm totally clueless about these things and we are going to run the table...11-1
Probably the moderate choice, winning against Purdue, Illinois, and Penn St.
Disclaimer:
All stats taken from Rivals. Obviously, I haven't made any cool adjustments to the stats (efficiency or opponent adjustments) like others have. I just wanted a quick and dirty way to compare these defenses.
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