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Kicking off a weekly Big Ten hoops column highlighting ten—not fourteen—of the most interesting teams, games, players, storylines, and statistics in the best basketball conference in the country.

1. The Big Ten has an enormous middle class

Wisconsin’s clear status as the frontrunner is the strongest preseason narrative surrounding the Big Ten and while the Badgers are compelling in their own right (aside from their unaesthetic style, of course), there’s another storyline that may not be getting enough attention: the middle of the Big Ten is as strong as ever and the fight for survival in the morass of teams directly behind Wisconsin will provide quality, reasonably high-stakes basketball on a near-nightly basis.

There are the Badgers, and there’s everyone else—you could take Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Ohio State and put them in almost any order, 2-through-8 looks so fluid in the Big Ten. To the point, Ken Pomeroy’s ratings have one team in the top ten (Wisconsin), but eleven in the top forty. Dan Hanner’s projections corroborate:  Wisconsin—and nobody else—is in the top ten, but there are five in the top 25 and nine in the top 40.

It’s unlikely that there will be eleven of fourteen teams in the top forty by season’s end—Indiana (26) and Purdue (40) immediately stand out as overrated by Pomeroy’s system—but there should be a great number of enjoyable games between the middle-tier teams. That should be the biggest intriguing thing about the league this season: the title race likely won’t be very suspenseful, but the jockeying for position in the standings (and eventually on the seed lines for the NCAA Tournament) will be fascinating. The Big Ten will be a conference of staunchly upper-middle class teams this season—filling new subdivisions along artificial lakes and living the American Dream.

2. Top-40 Kenpom teams often make the tournament

Since the tournament expanded from 65 to a nonsensical 68, only two top-forty teams per season were excluded from the NCAA Tournament. Of those, Wichita State—ranked 59th entering the tournament—won the NIT, Stanford—ranked 53rd—won it, Baylor defeated Iowa in the NIT final, and SMU lost in the final (to Minnesota) last season.

Pomeroy’s preseason top-forty has eleven Big Ten teams (Wisconsin 6, MSU 12, OSU 14. Michigan 15, Indiana 26, Iowa 32, Maryland 33, Nebraska 34, Minnesota 37, Illinois 38, Purdue 40) and, because of the inevitable cannibalization that comes along with the zero-sum nature of conference play, it’s essentially impossible for all of those teams to finish that highly. Still, the above chart is illustrative of a basic implication in Pomeroy’s ratings: the Big Ten probably has a lot of tournament-caliber teams and monitoring which ones fall on the right and wrong sides of the NCAA bubble will surely be a compelling late-season storyline.

[After the JUMP: who's in? Who's out? Does age help you anymore?]

3. So which Big Ten teams are dancing?

For certain programs, the NCAA Tournament is almost a given—teams like Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Ohio State have been locks to make the field in recent years. Michigan, who has made it in four straight seasons, seems destined to join that group. Those four are reasonably safe bets to make the tournament this season: Wisconsin is a certainty; Michigan State—despite an offseason exodus of talent with little in the way of reinforcements—has gotten a bid for sixteen straight years under Izzo; Ohio State disappointed (slightly) last year but enjoys an influx of top-tier newcomers; Michigan should have enough offensive firepower to mitigate a very young frontcourt. Those four teams may very well finish as the top four, though it isn’t likely.

Nebraska introduced themselves to the college basketball world with a joyous celebration upon receiving a bid into the NCAA Tournament—the Huskers were the biggest surprise in the league, finished fourth in the Big Ten at a very respectable 11-7, won all but one game at home, and returned to the tournament for the first time in over a decade. Needles too say, Tim Miles is an excellent coach. While Nebraska returns its nucleus of Terran Petteway, Shavon Shields, and Walter Pitchford, the Huskers are still short on outside shooting and general ball movement. Still, their defense is probably good enough to get them into the tournament with Petteway’s impressive (though sort of inefficient) volume scoring. Regression may be coming, but Nebraska will make it.

After making it in two years ago and missing it last season, Minnesota and Illinois are in the same boat. The Gophers won the NIT last year (which can be interpreted in a lot of ways—it most likely suggests that they were better than their regular season performance), but both teams finished with losing records in conference play. Both teams should receive bids this year: Minnesota features one of the better backcourts in the league—Deandre Mathieu and Andre Hollins are small, but they’re incredibly fun—and has experience all over the floor; Illinois addressed its biggest issue—outside shooting—with the additions of high-major guard transfers, Aaron Cosby and Ahmad Starks, and did play terrific defense last season. Both teams have young promising coaches who should find themselves in the NCAA Tournament come March.

Iowa had a baffling collapse last season, but the computers really liked the Hawkeyes and they did give a pretty decent Tennessee squad a good fight in the First Four of the tournament. With Roy Devyn Marble’s graduation, Iowa will have to allocate the possessions left behind by one of the better Hawkeyes in recent memory, but they’re deep and still have some talent. Aaron White is perhaps the most underrated player in the league; Adam Woodbury is a former blue-chip big man with great physical tools; Jarrod Uthoff (a Wisconsin transfer) could be a pleasant surprise; Gabe Olaseni is a beast on the glass, etc. While it wouldn’t be that surprising to see a rudderless Hawkeye team struggle again in conference play, another complete meltdown would be a shock. Iowa’s probably good enough to make the tournament and they probably will.

As for teams that could—but likely won’t—make it in: Indiana is a mess that lost a lottery pick and simply doesn’t have the depth to augment Yogi Ferrell and James Blackmon’s abilities; Maryland, after massive attrition and a change of conference, is a complete unknown (and very young, regardless of if the new pieces fit together); Purdue has to rely on the mercurial AJ Hammons to be a star, which is extremely dubious; Penn State, Northwestern, and Rutgers are too far off the pace to be considered legitimate threats for a spot in the tournament.

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4. Appraising Wisconsin’s challengers

Bo Ryan’s Badgers are the overwhelming favorite to win the league—it’s a consensus in the college basketball community (and, specifically, the Big Ten community) that Wisconsin will be the league’s champion. Every other team near the top of the league has seemingly insurmountable challenges: Michigan is far too green in the frontcourt, Ohio State needs freshmen to inject life into a brutally mediocre offense, Michigan State doesn’t have enough talent or playmaking ability, Iowa lacks a go-to offensive option and is burdened by the 1-7 finish down the stretch last year, etc. etc. On the other hand, Wisconsin has almost everyone back from Pomeroy’s best Big Ten team a year ago, showcases a national player of the year candidate at the five, and is led by one of the better head coaches in college hoops.

I would take Wisconsin to win the conference outright against the field—usually an absurd bet for any one team. That’s reflective of both the Badgers—a legitimately elite team that boasts unparalleled chemistry and experience (vis a vis the rest of the league)—and the crop of challengers, who all seem too fatally flawed to mount a serious effort for the crown. Running down the most likely contenders:

• Ohio State – Last season should be a concern, but it was probably just a blip in Thad Matta’s excellent coaching career; the Buckeyes don’t lose much, other than the underrated Lenzelle Smith and the annoying din of Aaron Craft platitudes; D’Angelo Russell is the most highly-touted recruit in the league (and he’s known for scoring the basketball—and they also add Keita Bates-Diop and Jae’Sean Tate. If the freshmen gel well enough with Russell and KBD shouldering the scoring responsibility, OSU could ride a fierce defense to a Big Ten title—there are certainly enough pieces between Shannon Scott, Sam Thompson, and Amir Williams.
• Michigan – If nothing else, last season (in which Michigan limped into Big Ten play and eventually won the league by three games) puts Michigan in the conversation; Caris LeVert may be the best pro prospect in the conference and he’s in the same system and getting the same coaching as his forebears, Big Ten Players of the Year Trey Burke and Nik Stauskas; Derrick Walton and Zak Irvin are primed for breakout seasons; John Beilein is a phenomenal coach. The Wolverines would need either Mark Donnal or Ricky Doyle to surprise in a big way, which seems unlikely, but the offense will definitely put up gaudy tempo-free numbers.
• Nebraska – Terran Petteway can get buckets, Shavon Shields is a great second option, and Walter Pitchford’s unique stretch-five ability complements those two perfectly; Nebraska’s defense was quietly the biggest reason why they were decent last year and it isn’t going to change; Redshirt freshman Nick Fuller can really shoot the ball and could shore up a huge Cornhusker weakness; Tai Webster simply has to be better than he was as a freshman; They happen to have an awesome home-court advantage. With a  year of experience, the Huskers could see a boost in offensive efficiency and as long as the defense doesn’t suffer, they could be a challenger.
• Michigan State – Tom Izzo; but seriously, Denzel Valentine is hard to peg because of how versatile he is and how good he could be at, well, everything; Branden Dawson is finally healthy and ready to emasculate every big guy in America that stands between him and a rebound; last year’s unfortunate barrage of injuries bred experience for guys like Travis Trice and Matt Costello; Javon Bess may just be the most surprising freshman in the conference. The Spartans figure to have a (relatively) down year, but Izzo does keep his teams at a floor that rests somewhere between “pesky” and “pretty good” and MSU could theoretically come out of nowhere to win a muddled race.
• Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois, Maryland, and Indiana could jump some of the teams above, but it’s hard to see them overtaking Wisconsin.

5. Appraising Frank Kaminsky’s challengers

Unlike Wisconsin’s seemingly unassailable grip on the role as conference favorites, there’s a great chance that Frank Kaminsky doesn’t win Big Ten Player of the Year, even though he’s the most likely to. It’s often reductive to reward individual awards to the best player on the best team, but Kaminsky’s deserving of the preseason B1G POY and various All-American accolades he’s received. Perhaps nothing is more illustrative of that than his performance against Arizona in the Elite Eight last season: 28 points and 11 rebounds against the best team defense in the country in a way that showcased his precocious face-up and back-to-the-basket footwork along with his outside shooting ability.

He might be saddled with unreasonable expectations and with that, any disappointment could cause the perception of him to fall a bit. B1G POY and like awards are inherently subjective, so if Kaminsky turns in a solid, if unspectacular season, he could be hurt by his preseason status as frontrunner. Of course, if Wisconsin wins the Big Ten, he’ll get a strong look. Anyways, here are Kaminsky’s ten biggest threats, in order:

• Caris LeVert (Michigan) – outstanding length and general offensive ability, will spearhead Michigan’s dangerous offense
• Terran Petteway (Nebraska) – was under-the-radar last year, led the Big Ten in scoring, has an extremely high usage rate
• Sam Dekker (Wisconsin) – hyped up as a future pro, could steal some of the attention away from Kaminsky with big performances
• Branden Dawson (Michigan State) – ferocious rebounder, uneven but somewhat effective post game, will need to expand his offensive game
• Yogi Ferrell (Indiana) – great shooter, very solid all-around point guard, would need an Indiana resurgence to merit consideration
• Denzel Valentine (Michigan State) – probably going to have Michigan State’s highest usage rate, point forward ability, decent shooting
• Rayvonte Rice (Illinois) – volume scorer in the mold of Petteway, probably in for a lot of hype if Illinois exceeds expectations
• Dez Wells (Maryland) – Maryland’s best player, will probably have to carry the team for a while, could benefit from a surprise Terrapins team
• Andre Hollins (Minnesota) – undersized combo guard who can score from anywhere, but Deandre Mathieu may obscure his candidacy
• D.J. Newbill (Penn State) – best player on a bad team, will have some big games but Penn State’s simply not good enough

A freshman has never won the award.

6. Is there correlation between experience and winning?

Short answer:

No.

Long(er) answer:

Data from kenpom.com

Those R² values are nowhere near significant and the trendline on the right suggests that there’s an inverse correlation between experience and defensive success. The “experience” number is a good barometer of how experienced these teams were and these charts disprove that there is a correlation between experience and offensive or defensive efficiency.

Michigan—who was extremely young in both 2012 and 2013—Ohio State, and Maryland (in particular)should be quite happy about this. Young talent can certainly win in college basketball.

7. Hello Maryland and Rutgers

ESPN’s college basketball encyclopedia is a little dated (2009), but it was my first comprehensive introduction to the college basketball world as a whole, after having grown up in a football family. I dug it out to do a little bit of research on the Big Ten’s two newcomers. The introduction to the Maryland section reads as follows:

After winning the ACC Tournament in 1984, Terrapins coach Lefty Driesell boasted that he would put the trophy on the hood of his Cadillac and drive across Tobacco Road with it. That’s Maryland basketball: successful—and never happier than when bucking the Carolina-centricity of its conference.

Maryland has a proud basketball tradition, though they—like many other ACC programs—have measured themselves against Duke and North Carolina. The Terrapins have a particularly strong enmity towards Duke in particular (hope for an ACC—B1G Challenge between those two): the Blue Devils are probably Maryland’s most hated rival. Now that particular rivalry is gone and beyond that, Maryland will probably struggle for a sense of identity in a league without much geographically-proximate competition and without the contempt for the kings of the conference, contempt bred from years of losses. The Maryland-Duke rivalry is dead and the Terrapins have to close a long chapter of their history—or, to make the metaphor more appropriate: Maryland has to write another volume, a sequel to their lost half-century of failures and successes.

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A few brief notes on Maryland basketball history:

• The Terrapins won a national championship in 2002, defeating five-seed Indiana 64-52 in the Georgia Dome to clinch the title. Consensus All-American and tournament Most Outstanding Player Juan Dixon led the way with 18 points in the final. Curiously enough, a role player—point guard Steve Blake—outlasted him in the NBA and still plays for the Portland Trailblazers.
• Len Bias, Maryland’s best-ever player, tragically passed away just two days after being drafted second overall by the Boston Celtics. ESPN had a phenomenal 30 for 30 documentary on Bias and his untimely death, which is undoubtedly one of the saddest stories in college basketball history.
• John Lucas was once the first pick in the NBA Draft after two years as an All-American in College Park.
• CBS Color Commentator Len Elmore was a second-team All-American at Maryland.
• Gary Williams, perhaps the best coach in Maryland history, is now an analyst for the Big Ten Network (and was a part of the network before Maryland’s arrival). He didn’t have a happy split with the UMD athletic department, but Williams was the coach for the Terrapins’ national championship team.

As for Rutgers, I’m just going to post this in lieu of a recap of their depressing recent basketball history:

This was one of their best-ever teams. The Scarlet Knights did go undefeated way back in 1976, only to lose to Michigan in the Final Four. The Daily’s Dan Feldman wrote an excellent article about Rutgers’s coach, who played in that contest.

8. My wild-ass guess as to how the Big Ten shakes out

Since ties at certain records are likely, I won’t predict the Big Ten standings, but I’ll predict what the conference efficiency margin will look like by the end of the year.

1. Wisconsin
2. Ohio State
3. Michigan
4. Michigan State
5. Illinois
6. Nebraska
7. Iowa
8. Minnesota
9. Maryland
10. Indiana
11. Purdue
12. Penn State
13. Northwestern
14. Rutgers

I’ve had a lot of different guesses on twitter (@alexcook616), but I’ll put this one on the record and revisit it at the start of conference play and at the end of the year.

9. The opening weekend of games sucks…

By the time we reconvene next Monday, the Big Ten will have played 15 of its 18 games against teams that fall outside of the Kenpom Top-200 (including Michigan’s game against D-II Hillsdale). In each of those 15 games, the Big Ten teams have a 90%—or better—chance of winning those games. We won’t have much to say next week about any of those contests, unless one of the cupcakes pulls off a shocking upset.

The three games that feature teams who aren’t rated worse than 200th?

#154 Fordham at Penn State, #62 George Washington at Rutgers (which could be a really competitive game), and…

10. …Except for Minnesota vs. Louisville

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On Friday at 7:00 EST, the Big Ten will have its first marquee matchup of the season: Richard Pitino and the Golden Gophers take on his father and Louisville in Puerto Rico on the opening night of the college basketball season. The elder Pitino’s high-pressure, multiple trapping defenses have wreaked havoc on opponents—Louisville has been a top-5 defense in each of the last four seasons (and in six of the last seven) and the Cardinals have forced the highest turnover rate in the country for two years running. Senior point guard Chris Jones—who had the 8th-best individual steal rate in college basketball last season—and sophomore Terry Rozier, as well as freshman Quentin Snyder, will harass Minnesota’s guards all game. Louisville’s tenacious defense seems to have a spiraling effect; opponents turn the ball over progressively more, the game quickens, and the Cardinals find easy layups off of turnovers. Gopher guards Deandre Mathieu and Andre Hollins are experienced and able, but the Cardinals’ trapping press will be the toughest tests of their career. It should be noted that Minnesota was the second-worst team in the Big Ten at avoiding turnovers last season.

Still, Minnesota’s biggest issue may be with Montrezl Harrell—Louisville’s junior center is a top-flight NBA prospect who still has an unrefined game; Harrell gets by with his elite size, athleticism, rebounding ability, and efficiency from the field (though he doesn’t get to the free throw line that often, nor does he convert those opportunities well). While he still has quite a bit of development, he’s still a terror at the college level. Elliot Eliason and Mo Walker—both seniors—will have their hands full with Harrell, though it’s not likely that he’ll force them both to foul out. Those are the two key matchups: how well does Minnesota hold onto the ball on offense and can they contain Harrell on the glass and prevent him from those easy scoring opportunities? Louisville, Ken Pomeroy’s preseason #3 team, might be the best team they face all year.

Pomeroy’s system only gives Minnesota a 20% chance of winning, but it will be interesting to see if they benefit from the typical early-season sloppiness in these games.