He made it, and Maryland won the game (source)

Your Weekly B1G Hoops Column

Table of Contents:

1. Week I results
2. Introducing the Big Ten Schedule Matrix
3. Team of the week: Maryland
4. Player of the week: Jarrod Uthoff
5. Stat of the week: Melo’s free throw parade
6. Miscellaneous
7. Post-Week I Big Ten standings
8. Michigan’s week that was
9. Michigan’s week ahead
10. Week II schedule

1. Week I Results

After the first week of Big Ten play, there’s a little more clarity. Wisconsin dispatched Penn State and Northwestern with ease in what were the two biggest blowouts of the week. Maryland managed a double-overtime win in East Lansing over Michigan State – even if it isn’t a vintage Spartan team, it’s still a very impressive Big Ten debut for UMD – and Iowa came away with a road upset over Ohio State in two of the more notable results of the week.

Elsewhere, Purdue defended its home court with back-to-back wins over Minnesota and Michigan; Penn State lost two on the road (including an ugly game against Rutgers at the RAC – Rutgers had lost a similarly hideous contest earlier in the week to Northwestern) and tripled their loss total on the year in the process; Illinois also lost both games of a tough road swing against Michigan and Ohio State – they let the one in Ann Arbor slip away; Minnesota started their season on a two-game road trip and lost both, to Purdue and Maryland.

At the end of the week, Wisconsin, Maryland, and Purdue are the only teams sitting at 2-0. The newcomers have been the most impressive, as Wisconsin faced weak opponents, and Purdue held serve at home.

2. Introducing the Big Ten Schedule Matrix

Over the weekend, I threw together a handy way to visualize which teams only play an opponent only once this season, when two opponents play each other at a give location, and how a team does at home or on the road, among other things.

As the season progresses, the graphic will become much more informative, but it’s a convenient reference point and will be a weekly fixture in this space.

Click on image to enlarge

3. Team of the week: Maryland

Winning at the Brez isn’t easy; Maryland did it on their first try (source)

With apologies to Wisconsin – who overwhelmed two far inferior opponents and posted the week’s two highest points per possession totals – Maryland deserves this spot after winning in East Lansing and holding off Minnesota at home.

The game against Michigan State was a slog. From the 15-minute mark to the 5-minute mark in the second first half, the Terrapins outscored the Spartans 4-2, concurrently one of the roughest offensive stretches that either team will see all season; MSU recovered to lead 17-14 at halftime (the aggregate score of the two overtimes – in ten minutes – was 20-18, Maryland).

Aside from that, it was a surprisingly great, back-and-forth game that featured a few amazing plays from Maryland senior Dez Wells, who hit a last-second, game-tying three pointer at the end of regulation and had a beautiful steal and breakaway dunk in the second OT (both highlights in this video). There were enough high-leverage plays near the end of regulation and in both overtimes – enough to make up for the brutal first half and the teams’ combined jump-shooting (0.54 points per shot on 84 attempts) – to make it a good game, in the end.

Dez Wells and Melo Trimble is looking like the conference’s best backcourt: key plays from Wells and nine made free throws from Trimble helped steal the win against Michigan State, and the duo combined for 32 points in the game against Minnesota. Most impressive against the Terrapins was Damonte Dodd: in 20 minutes, the big man scored an efficient nine points, hauled in 12 rebounds, and had 3 blocks. The Terps opened up a 11-2 run to open the second half and pull away from the Gophers on Saturday.

Right now, Maryland looks like Wisconsin’s best challenger. They don’t travel to Madison and they’re currently projected to finish 13-5 in the league by Kenpom’s algorithm (though Wisconsin, incredibly, is projected to finish 16-2). UMD is balanced – 30th offensively, 25th defensively, per KP – and although their defense may regress some due to their untenably outstanding 3-point defense, they’ll be a tough out for anyone in their first year in the Big Ten.

[Hit the JUMP for No. 4-10]

4. Player of the week: Jarrod Uthoff

A brief disclaimer – the player of the week will never come from the team of the week, simply in the interest of more league-wide exposure

Feel like this angle might be making Uthoff look like a better leaper than he actually is (source)

@ OHIO STATE (W): 18 points (6-11 shooting, 4 made threes), 7 rebounds (3 offensive), 5 assists, 1 block, 2 turnovers

Even though Iowa only played in one game this past week (they play at home tonight against Nebraska), either Uthoff or Aaron White – who also pointed 18 points and had more rebounds, but fewer assists than Uthoff – deserved this recognition because of how impressive their performances were in a big road win in Columbus.

With Ohio State’s move to the 2-3 zone as a staple defense, Uthoff became extremely important to Iowa’s gameplan. The former Wisconsin Badger seems perfectly made to combat that particular zone: Uthoff can shoot it well from outside (41% from three in his career) and it’s hard for the defense to recover well enough to contest his shots because of his length; he’s an effective passer for his size and really contorts the zone from the free throw line – which he exploited to assist easy dunks and layups; and the biggest issue would have been Uthoff’s semi-frequent bouts of passivity on offense, but he worked well as a spot-up shooter and made the most of his opportunities passing from the middle of the zone. Throw in his handful of offensive boards (he had 3 and Iowa, as a team, rebounded almost half of OSU’s misses), and it was a clinic on how one player’s skill-set can attack the 2-3.

Over the course of the season, Iowa’s offense has lagged behind its defense, and Uthoff – if he can get open looks from three – can inject some life into it on a regular basis. The Hawkeyes scored 1.16 points per possession on the road against one of the Big Ten’s stingiest defenses on a yearly basis, and Iowa wound up simply running away from the Buckeyes after leading by 12 at half. Ohio State did cut the lead to three with less than four minutes left, but a Josh Oglesby jumper and subsequent Uthoff three effectively sealed the game immediately afterwards.

From a big-picture standpoint, this win is huge for Iowa. Along with their road victory over North Carolina, these are two very impressive road wins. Barring a big collapse (which admittedly did happen last year), the Hawkeyes’ resume should be buoyed by this win – and the UNC win – even if the rest of their record is rather mediocre.

5. Stat of the week: Melo’s free throw parade

This seems to happen a lot (source)

“It’s just something I’ve been practicing, knowing how to draw the contact. I’ve just been learning since I’ve been watching NBA players like James Harden. When he gets to the basket, he knows how to draw the foul,” Trimble said. “I watch how he does it, and I put it into my game.” (Washington Post)

James Harden has become an NBA superstar, in no small part because of his unparalleled ability to get to the free throw line and convert. Regardless of its lack of aesthetic value, the approach is one of the most effective – and difficult – in basketball; it’s hard to get those high-value free throw attempts and it takes real skill to draw fouls, especially shooting fouls.

Melo Trimble is currently one of the best freshmen in the Big Ten because of his Hardenesque knack for drawing fouls and scoring from the charity stripe. Maryland is tenth nationally in free throw rate, mostly because of Trimble’s impressive work:

Most impressively, Trimble has made the most free throws of any player in the country (106). For context, Iowa’s Aaron White is fifth with 89 made free throws. From a tempo-free perspective, Trimble has a FT Rate of 93.8 – 15th nationally among qualifying players on Kenpom – and a usage rate of 24.5; he plays 80.3% of available minutes for the Terrapins. After also considering his shooting percentage from the line (88%), he’s unique among recent players in the Big Ten:

The only others on the list with comparable playing time, usage rate, and percentage from the stripe were Aaron White and Cody Zeller – certainly favorable company. Aside from Tai Webster, Trimble is the only guard on the list.

In the last week alone, Trimble had 27 free throw attempts. When Maryland’s offense stagnates, they have a safety valve in Trimble’s ability to drive to the basket and draw fouls on opposing big men. His mindset (as indicated in the quote above) is somewhat unique for most college players – he attacks the basket with the intent to draw contact and get fouled, instead of simply driving to the rim with the intent to score. It’s a small nuance, but one that has made him into one of the better freshmen in the country.

6. Miscellaneous

• Illinois and Minnesota were each dealt unfortunate schedules at the beginning of conference play – the each played their first two games on the road and lost both. Minnesota (36 Kenpom, 37 Sagarin) is slightly more well-regarded than Illinois (56, 52) is, though I think both could very well be tournament teams. Still, they each could have stolen wins on the road (at Purdue and at Michigan, respectively) that would have been helpful in building a resume.
• Rutgers has already absorbed the most negative Big Ten basketball ethos – losing to Northwestern and beating Penn State in games that didn’t exceed 100 points by the two teams combined. Unfortunately for the Scarlet Knights, they won’t be facing teams like Penn State and Northwestern every night and they won’t be playing every game at home.
• The Conference Player of the Year award was thought to be Frank Kaminsky’s to lose – and he’s done little to signal that it was the wrong opinion: 18 points and 14 rebounds against Penn State, 16 and 10 (and 6 assists) against Northwestern – all while being quite efficient. Fellow Badger forwards Sam Dekker and Nigel Hayes scored in double figures in both games as well. Through two games, Wisconsin’s shooting an obscene 64% from two and 47% from three.
• Freshman swingman D’Angelo Russell has been excellent for Ohio State, but had been struggling against high-major competition before the game on Saturday against Illinois. He went 6-20 from the field against Louisville, 4-17 against North Carolina, and 4-16 against Iowa, but show the ball well (7-13) against the Illini in a comfortable Buckeye win.
• Indiana didn’t get much from their stars against Nebraska this past Wednesday, but they managed to win on the road against a reeling Nebraska squad. James Blackmon and Yogi Ferrell combined to score just nine points on 4-16 shooting, but center Hanner Mosquera-Perea had his best game of the season (12 and 10) and Robert Johnson and Troy Williams scored in double figures as well. Nebraska had a shot distribution straight out of NBA 2K: 19 shots for Terran Petteway, 18 for Shavon Shields, and 22 for everyone else combined.
• Penn State finished with a 12-1 record outside of the conference, but dropped its first two games in the Big Ten – despite 29 points from D.J. Newbill, they were ran out of the building by Wisconsin, and lost a clunker to Rutgers. As I wrote last week, Penn State’s non-conference record was a mirage and it’s going to be an uphill battle to reach the NCAA Tournament for the Nittany Lions.

7. Post-Week I Big Ten standings

Small sample size caveats apply. This will become more useful as the season progresses.

Here’s to betting that Rutgers doesn’t have the best defense in the conference at the end of the season.

8. Michigan’s week that was

Feels about right (Patrick Barron / MGoBlog)

It’s simple enough – Michigan held serve at home and lost on the road. Still, the home win against Illinois, achieved with the hot shooting of Aubrey Dawkins, felt – and was – quite improbable, while the loss in West Lafayette brought up several of the same problems that Michigan has been dealing with all season. In the end, a split was the most likely outcome and it wound up happening; Michigan just can’t afford too many more home / road splits – the Wolverines need a hot streak soon with the upcoming schedule.

For a while, Michigan looked lost against Illinois. With the Illini leading 48-35 with just over 11 minutes left, Ken Pomeroy’s algorithm gave the Wolverines just a 6.5% chance of winning. Behind Dawkins, a little-used reserve, and a resurgent Zak Irvin, Michigan rallied to force overtime and prevailed in the extra stanza. Illinois was able to leverage Michigan into 46 jump-shots total on the day (to 10 attempts at the rim), but the Wolverines shot well enough to eventually pull out a win.

Against Purdue, Michigan’s offensive woes reappeared, as the Wolverines shot just 7-27 on 2-point field goal attempts, missing open layups and settling for low-percentage long twos in the process. Purdue’s Isaac Haas struggled with foul trouble, but the luxury of pulling 7-footer A.J. Hammons off of the bench paid off as Hammons may have had his best game of the season. Regardless, Michigan was unable to get to the rim much offensively and when they did, Wolverines frequently missed layups.

Michigan’s frustrating inability to get to the basket – which, in my opinion, is a major reason for their offensive struggles – is illustrated here:

Hoop-math and its data only go back four years, but over that span, Michigan’s now getting its smallest percentage of shots at the rim and is taking the most mid-range attempts in the last four years.

9. Michigan’s week ahead

TUESDAY – at Penn State

SATURDAY – vs. Minnesota

It’s hard to call a game in January a “must-win,” but these are two games that Michigan might need come Selection Sunday if they can work their way back onto the bubble. Penn State’s 12-3 record is a paper tiger and Happy Valley is one of the least intimidating places to play in the Big Ten; Minnesota is a pretty decent squad, but their biggest strength (forcing turnovers) doesn’t typically bother Michigan and the Wolverines need to make sure to lock up winnable games at home.

Right now, Kenpom projects both games to be losses, due to Michigan’s unfavorable spot in the rankings (91 nationally, as of this morning). Basketball, by the NUmbers – a Northwestern site – was kind enough to send me the formula for projecting the likelihood of different end results after Big Ten play and it doesn’t look good for Michigan:

At some point, Michigan needs to make up ground and these two games are good opportunities to do so. Penn State’s a typical (of late) Penn State team – D.J. Newbill is a good scorer, and surprisingly efficient for his immense volume of shots, but the rest of the team is lacking. Minnesota is transitioning into a Rick Pitinio defense in its second year under his son, Richard; the Gophers have plenty of guards who can wreak havoc on both ends of the floor (Deandre Mathieu, Andre Hollins, Nate Mason, and wing Carlos Morris) and two serviceable big men (Mo Walker and Elliott Eliason).

I know it’s verboten to disagree with Pomeroy’s projections in the game previews, but if I had to make a guess, I’d say that Michigan is going to win both games this week to finish at 3-1 in the Big Ten heading into a tough fixture in Columbus.

10. Week II schedule

In my opinion, the must-watch games are:

• Indiana at Michigan State
• Ohio State at Minnesota
• Maryland at Illinois
• Michigan State at Iowa
• Ohio State at Indiana