mistersuits

Remaining Games Chart:

Since the last time I've modified the chart a bit so instead of a non-sensical number average, "Difficulty" is now on a log scale of 1 to 10 of the KenPom/RPI average weighted by site of game.

Well, Here We Are

Not surprisingly, the most difficult game by the numbers comes last. Michigan displaced the previous #1 KenPom team convincingly and is rewarded by playing the new #1 for the championship.

The good news is that these rankings and statistics are a formality at this point. The game is a one-off, winner-take-all, who is hot on the right night, who gets the 50/50 call, who can make the shots. Michigan has been in every single game this season except for one and the circumstances leading up to that game are not what we have here tonight.

NCAA Tourney Run vs B1G Gauntlet

If you laid out Michigan’s tournament games from the Sweet 16 to the Championship you would see before you, at least according to KenPom, an unrivaled task of difficulty – four consecutive top 10 opponents, with lots of travel and not much time to prepare.

Michigan, incredibly, has already run an equally challenging gauntlet earlier this year. There are no advanced statistics that can measure what kind of benefit of experience a team takes away from playing the top four teams consecutively (three on the road) in a nine day span; but it is safe to say that these are the kinds of things that either make you or break you. Regardless of outcome Monday night the answer is already clear.

February 2^nd – 12^th

@Indiana (3)
vsOhio (6)
@Wisconsin (12)
@MSU (10)

March 29^th – April 8^th

#Kansas (9)
#Florida (2)
#Syracuse (8)
#Louisville (1)

As painful as it was to watch, can you draw up a tougher cluster of regular season games with which to teach and prepare this extremely young Michigan team?

The Team

• Without Burke, could Michigan have rallied vs Kansas?
• Without Hardaway pouring in 21 points on 5 of 7 three point shooting in a fifteen point victory, does Michigan have what it takes to beat South Dakota St?
• Without Stauskas firebombing Florida, do the Gators keep it close and have a shot to win?
• Without Robinson III's offensive efficiency and offensive rebounding does Michigan sputter in any of its tournament matchups, particularly Syracuse or SDSt?
• Without McGary becoming a world beater, doesn't Michigan suffer an inevitable "Wisconsin"-style loss to Syracuse or get blown out by Kansas or get upset by VCU?
• Without Albrecht becoming the most eligible bachelor and putting together a tournament highlight reel all his own, does Burke get worn down to the point Michigan exits early?
• Without LeVert making two critical three pointers and playing a terrific defensive game, does Michigan have what it takes to outlast Syracuse?
• Without Jordan Morgan "getting stops", does Michigan make it to the Championship game?

The best part of this run has been every rotation player has made plays crucial to the success of the whole team. As much as I thought the team's success would be utterly reliant on Trey Burke's performance, as went he so would the team's fate. Now vs Kansas this was true. But against South Dakota St and Syracuse in particular this was very much not the case. As a whole, the team has exceeded wildest expectations.

The Path To 32:

At Christmas I had seen this team play three games out in New York, I knew they were special. Now to climb to the top of the mountain we can throw out all the numbers, forget all the statistics, take our own time-out and appreciate how awesome this team is. The most difficult game of the season is the last. There is no tomorrow, but there is no fear.

Go Blue!

(Photo from UMHoops)

Remaining Games Chart:

Rank	Opponent	Difficulty	KenPom	RPI	Result
-	MICHIGAN	3	4	3	-
1	@Indiana	6	2	12	73-81
2	Indiana	7	2	12
3	@Minnesota	9	11	10	83-75
4	@Ohio	11	8	17	53-56
5	@MSU	11	15	11
6	Ohio	13	8	17	76-74
7	MSU	13	15	11
8	#Pittsburgh	19	6	34	67-62
9	@Wisconsin	23	14	41
10	N.C. State	24	29	19	79-72
11	#Kansas St.	26	32	24	71-57
12	@Illinois	34	50	30	74-60
13	Illinois	40	50	30
14	Iowa	63	33	92	95-67
15	@NW	70	82	83	94-66
16	Arkansas	71	62	79	80-67
17	NW	83	82	83	68-46
18	@Purdue	87	84	120
19	#WVU	89	99	93	81-66
20	WMU	96	111	81	73-41
21	Purdue	102	84	120	68-53
22	Nebraska	117	146	87	62-47
23	@Bradley	136	164	157	74-66
24	@Penn St.	163	199	184
25	Penn St.	192	199	184
26	Cleveland St.	209	237	180	77-47
27	EMU	223	224	222	93-54
28	CMU	238	239	236	88-73
29	IUPUI	308	313	302	91-54
30	Binghampton	339	344	334	67-39
31	Slippery Rock	NR	NR	NR	100-62

Notes:

• MSU and Ohio are teams of indistinguishable difficulty albeit different playstyles. B1G is just brutal this year.
• Worst major conference record of a team that still made the NCAA tournament was 7-9. Illinois (3-7) has a good shot at breaking that record.
• Still have no clue what to make of upcoming series against MSU, hope for a split I think.
• Pitt and Arkansas both had big wins that don't so much help Michigan's SoS as it does help Michigan by keeping the 1-seed line a little bit more accessible.
• Michigan has 4 "tough" and 4 "winnable" games remaining.
• Upcoming Penn State games will be a welcome breather, should be able to get the team well rested for a strong homestand finish against MSU and Indiana.
• Michigan has the "best" losses among all of the top-10 teams in the country.

Path to B1G Conference Title:

• Beat Wisconsin.
• It's tough to envision a scenario given road game difficulty that doesn't land Indiana, MSU and Ohio all at 4 losses a piece.
• A big key will be getting Morgan healthy and back into game speed over the Penn State stretch.
• My earlier prediction was any team finishing 15-3 wins outright, 14-4 gives a shot at a split. This still looks to be precisely the case past the halfway mark in conference play.
• All of the top five teams in the conference are in the conference title race, it's any of those teams' to win.
• Beat Wisconsin. It will effectively knock them out of contention.

Special Feature - Path To The Most Wins In Michigan BB History:

In 1989 Michigan won 30 games en route to a National Title. In 1993 Michigan won 31 games (but later vacated the season).

Michigan sits at 21 victories with 8 regular season games remaining, a conference tournament that didn't exist twenty years ago, and a shot at a favorable seed for a deep NCAA run.

I'll let someone else run the win probabilities but eyeballing from the chart above Michigan can safely assume a worst case of 4-4 to end the year. They would then need to reach the BTT finals and the Elite 8 to tie for their best (non-vacated) win total in history. This is remarkably within reach.

If we assume a bit more optimism that Michigan will go .500 in their "tough" games and they finish out the season 6-2 they'll reach 27-4 and a shot at Michigan Basketball History will be well within reach.

The thing to take away from this Michigan team, about to face two more Big Ten contenders on the road, is that Michigan's only losses have come from the absolute best games from Top-10 rival teams on the road. And they kept it close both games despite absorbing (or allowing depending on your opinion) ridiculous runs to start each game.

Does Wisconsin (yielded 1.2ppp against Creighton and Florida) have an elite defender like Craft or Oladipo that can force Burke into an inefficient day? I personally don't think so.

I think Michigan wins for the first time in fourteen years up in Madison and carries the #1 ranking up into East Lansing playing with house money for the B1G Conference Title and a shot at their best season ever.

CHART - Remaining basketball games schedule:

Rank	Opponent	Difficulty	KenPom	RPI	Result
-	MICHIGAN	5	7	3	-
1	@Minnesota	7	8	8	83-75
2	@Indiana	7	4	13
3	Indiana	9	4	13
4	@Ohio	16	10	26	53-56
5	@MSU	17	18	20
6	Ohio	18	10	26
7	MSU	19	18	20
8	N.C. State	19	27	11	79-72
9	@Wisconsin	24	11	45
10	#Pittsburgh	33	9	62	67-62
11	@Illinois	34	63	16
12	#Kansas St.	38	39	40	71-57
13	Illinois	40	63	16
14	Iowa	56	34	78	95-67
15	Arkansas	70	66	73	80-67
16	#WVU	80	94	79	81-66
17	@NW	85	90	105	94-66
18	@Purdue	85	79	116
19	NW	98	90	105
20	Purdue	98	79	116
21	Nebraska	120	162	77	62-47
22	WMU	132	159	104	73-41
23	@Bradley	136	138	175	74-66
24	@Penn St.	160	201	166
25	CMU	179	205	152	88-73
26	Cleveland St.	180	242	117	77-47
27	Penn St.	184	201	166
28	EMU	257	288	226	93-54
29	IUPUI	293	312	274	91-54
30	Binghampton	344	343	344	67-39
31	Slippery Rock	NR	NR	NR	100-62

Notes:

• Wisconsin and NC State climb up.
• Illinois tumbles.
• Jury is still out on MSU but will know significantly more in next two weeks.
• Michigan has now played 4 of their hardest 10 games.
• Penn St be bad.
• Adidas jerseys are worse.

Path to B1G Conference Title:

• Michigan will not play another team with as much raw athleticism as Minnesota in the regular season (Indiana is probably more talented but not bouncier).
• Finish 6-3 or better on the road. To do that, Michigan must win @Illinois, @Purdue, and @Penn St. Then they have to take one of three from @Indiana, @MSU, @Wisconsin. That seems doable.
• Run the table at home or maybe just one loss.
• I think it's still easier for Wisconsin to get four losses than Indiana at this point, so the Badger's road win there will definitely have been a major deciding factor at the end of the year.
• My prediction is any team finishing 15-3 wins outright, 14-4 gives a shot at a split. I don't think Indiana will lose 4 more games in the conference so I disagree with the idea that 13-5 multi-way title will happen again.

Merry Christmas, MGoBloggers! Here’s something to keep the basketball fanatic in you warm and cozy until the Wolverines demolish the Chippewas on the 29^th.

Qualifications?

Living in Brooklyn, I’ve had the good fortune to watch Michigan handle Pitt, K-State and West Virginia in person this year. All three games Michigan looked composed and took care of business emphatically. Even when trailing Pitt by eight in the first half, it never felt like the game was getting away.

Coincidentally, the last time I saw Michigan play a basketball game in person? April 5^th, 1993.

For me there is no question, this year’s squad is as fun to watch as the Fab Five was.

First, below is a breakdown of this year’s schedule and difficulty by game. What I’ve done is a Nate Silver style of measuring a team’s rank by averaging their current KenPom and RPI ranking then we can make eyeball adjustments for how tough a game will be based on home or away. I included Michigan on the chart just for comparisons sake. Feel free to print it out and pencil it in the rest of the way.

The Schedule:

Rank	Opponent	Difficulty	KenPom	RPI
-	MICHIGAN	5	7	3
1	@Indiana	9	1	17
2	Indiana	9	1	17
3	@Minnesota	12	12	11
4	N.C. State	14	23	5
5	@Illinois	21	33	8
6	Illinois	21	33	8
7	@MSU	22	17	26
8	MSU	22	17	26
9	@Ohio	23	9	37
10	Ohio	23	9	37
11	#Pittsburgh	36	6	65
12	Iowa	57	43	71
13	#Kansas St.	62	35	89
14	@Wisconsin	84	16	151
15	@NW	94	81	106
16	NW	94	81	106
17	#West Virginia	94	86	102
18	Arkansas	103	83	122
19	@Purdue	123	69	177
20	Purdue	123	69	177
21	Nebraska	123	204	42
22	WMU	128	197	61
23	@Bradley	136	122	149
24	@Penn St.	150	158	142
25	Penn St.	150	158	142
26	Cleveland St.	155	185	125
27	CMU	188	259	117
28	EMU	224	275	173
29	IUPUI	274	281	267
30	Binghampton	337	343	330
31	Slippery Rock	---	---	---

Takeaways?

Despite playing a non-conference schedule that featured wins against five teams from power-conferences, the bulk of Michigan’s difficult games lie ahead. I can say with a reasonable degree of confidence that the B1G regular season championship will be won or lost against the cadre of nearly indistinguishably ranked teams Illinois, MSU, and Ohio.

RPI and KenPom disagree a lot on the caliber of team Pitt is. When Cincinnati comes calling on New Year’s Eve we’ll learn a lot more. There is an undeniable dropoff in competition level going from Pittsburgh

Conference play can be penciled in with nine should-wins and likely-wins to go along with four or five lean-win and toss-up. You could make an argument that @Indiana or @OSU is lean-loss but beyond that it’s a stretch. The fact that you cannot point to a game remaining on the schedule and say “guaranteed loss” should be all you need to know about where expectations are.

That said, Iowa is highly rated and flying under the radar, and we should hope that Michigan doesn’t suffer its annual inexplicable loss to the Hawkeyes.

Interestingly, a number one rating could be on the line January 13^th when the pride of Columbus returns home to take on the Buckeyes given that Duke travels away from home to play NC State the day prior.

Comparisons to 2011-12 Michigan Team

Michigan’s NCSoS was #187 last year according to KenPom and #192 this year so against a very similarly grading set of opponents Michigan is vastly outperforming what they did a year ago.

Points-per-possession

Last season Michigan broke 1.2PPP five times all year. Michigan already has seven games at or above through twelve games this season.

* 2012-13: 1.23ppp (3^rd)
* 2011-12 (non-conference): 1.10ppp
* 2011-12 1.07ppp (60^th)

OReb%

Michigan 2012-13             36.9%    69^th        
Michigan 2011-12             28.0%    285^th

It’s as if Zack Novak grew six inches and doubled his motor.

3Pt% (Thank you Nik Stauskas)

Michigan 2012-13             41.1%    7^th        
Michigan 2011-12             35.0%    135^th

Things Michigan Lead The Conference In 2011 (First or Second):

• 3-Pt Baskets Attempted

Things Michigan Leads The Conference in 2012 (First or Second):

• Wins
• Win %
• Field Goals Made
• Free Throw %
• 3-Pt FG %
• Effective FG %
• Points-Per-Possession
• Defensive Rebound %
• Assist To Turnover Ratio
• Turnovers Per Game
• Fouls
• Fouls Per Game

To review, these stats all demonstrate a meteoric rise in nearly all major offensive categories. It's just plain filthy.

Intermission

It is the responsibility of John Beilein, Trey Burke, and Tim Hardaway Jr. to keep the team focused night in and night out and to not overlook any game on the schedule. It is our job as overzealous bloggers and sports fans to do what they cannot. Sorry, pet peeve.

Worksheet:

Read the following two statements. Afterwards, select which should be spoken by Michigan’s Mens Basketball Head Coach and which is appropriate only to be posted on a Michigan sports fan blog post.

Statement #1: Central Michigan has a tremendous basketball team with a lot of talent. They play with a lot of poise and can give you a lot of different looks that our guys are going to have to be careful with. We have to be patient and play within ourselves and continue to go out every night and work to be the best basketball team we can be and let the rankings fall where they may at the end of the year.

Statement #2: Iowa looks like it could be a sleeper but that game’s at home so we’re looking at 16-0 going into Columbus to play for Michigan’s best start in school history which, like, awesome. A win in that game and then you start to play connect-the-dots on how does Michigan win the B1G regular season title and see if the Wolverines can’t hold onto a #1 seed going into the tourney.

New Years Resolutions (a.k.a. Michigan will win the B1G / go to the Final Four if…)

In order of importance…

5. Caris LaVert realizes his upside as a lockdown defender and can be a solid contributor on offense. To me this is the biggest unknown remaining for Michigan this year. He is a lanky guard who, at a glance, has the potential to be an impact player. The ten minutes of playing time per game may not seem like much but when you consider that it’s either him or a struggling Vogrich or an Akunne (see: NC State) you begin to realize just how important his role is for every game and why after that N.C. State Beilein burned his redshirt.

4. Tim Hardaway Jr. continues to clean the defensive glass all year long. Hardaway has found where he shines, using a size advantage at the guard position to dominate defensive rebounds. The equation from there is simple – grab the rebound and then out-athlete the other team down the floor in transition. He has always been twice the player when focused and he has maintained it in laser-like fashion through the non-conference slate. Not being called upon to carry the load scoring or creating on the offensive end actually enables him to do both better. Hoping for a streaky Hardaway to get hot from three is a recipe for losses when the random number generator doesn’t fall kindly. What he’s done so far looks to be very much repeatable.

3. Mitch McGary continues to average 1 point and 1 rebound per two minutes of playing time and avoids foul trouble to see his minutes rise into the 25 minute per game range. When he is on, he seems to be involved in every play on both ends of the floor. The amount of upside potential that he can reach by March (avoiding fouls and getting into “playoff” conditioning form) will be tantamount to any legitimate Final Four run. There will be at least one key game where Michigan will need McGary to take over.

2. Nik Stauskas shoots north of 50% and close to an unworldly ~60% from downtown. The Maple Leaf Mamba’s scoring will be the difference-maker in a handful of very competitive games this year. Almost as important is the effect his scoring has on players like Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. – defenses are faced with a catch-22: sag off of Stauskas or defend him close, giving Michigan’s backcourt room to drive.

1. Trey Burke stays healthy, rested, and focused. There is no understating the team will go as far as Burke takes them. It was true last year and anyone watching saw him run out of steam after playing all fourty-five minutes of a B1G conference tournament game versus Minnesota. In Michigan’s final two losses following that the team averaged 0.93 PPP and Burke shot 6 of 26 (2-16 3PT). This year, all signs are pointing to Burke feeling fresher and his body responding better to the rigors and the pacing of the season. The B1G conference play is sure to challenge that, but he has more scoring options to distribute to.

Wild Conclusions:

This team is fun to watch and at the holiday break is empirically at better odds to reach a Final Four than any Michigan team in decades. Catch them in action if you can because you never know when, as fans, we'll have this chance again.

Merry Christmas.
See you in 2013.
See you in Atlanta.
Go Blue.

It's a 3 or a 4. Here's how it breaks down. 

Unless craziness happens, Baylor and Marquette have 3-seeds locked down. Here are the remaining teams competing for the last two slots. Stats according to CBS. In no particular order:

Remember UConn last year shot up all the way to a 3-seed with their Big East tournament run. Louisville, despite finishing the regular season slow, has the opportunity to do similar here. FSU, if they were to beat Duke and UNC on back to back nights, would have a case for themselves as well. Georgetown's numbers are very similar to Michigan's and both had rather ignominous conference tournament exits. At this point, it seems unlikely that either Indiana or Wisconsin would pass Michigan on the NCAA S-Curve, but crazier things have happened.

Tomorrow you are rooting for North Carolina to crush Florida State and eliminate one of the contenders. It'd be nice if Cincinnati won tonight, but it does not appear that is going to happen, so we're stuck with Louisville for the time being. In the most likely scenario it comes down to Georgetown vs Michigan for the last 3-seed, and we're splitting hairs at that point so it's guess work as to what the selection committee will decide.

Fortunately, there have been a lot of upsets in the mid-major conference tournaments and the overall competitiveness of the 13 and lower seeds has seen a significant drop in the last week.

Here are the teams that are likely to be 13 and 14 seeds (Michigan's likeliest opening round opponents, in no particular order):

Long Beach St would be the worst draw here, and I'm hoping they move up in the S-Curve to a 12 seed or better. They beat Xavier and Pittsburgh and they lost by single digits in road games vs UNC, Kansas and Louisville (i.e. they can play with anyone).

South Dakota St's best wins come over Oral Roberts and Washington. Common opponents they split their season series with Oakland and lost to Minnesota by 16.

Colorado has a bunch of Pac-12 wins and not much else to speak of. They lost OOC to Wichita St, Colorado St, and Maryland. They are not a good team on paper but someone had to win the P12 Tournament!

New Mexico St managed to beat New Mexico on the road and that is it on their list of impressive games.

Belmont is another scary draw. Their wins this year aren't flashy but they took Duke to the wire, losing by 1 point at Cameron. They also lost on the road to Memphis.

Montana has an impressive win streak going but they have played the weakest schedule of this pack of teams. Their best win came over Long Beach St at home.

Ohio who nipped Akron for the MAC title, wouldn't it be fun to draw this team in the first round. What would we chant? Ohio (not THAT ohio) has no real impressive wins to speak of and didn't play a grueling schedule. Their best "win" was a 5 point loss at Louisville back at the start of the season.

Davidson's results read something like, boring boring boring, WTF-beat-Kansas, boring boring boring. They beat Kansas on the road by 6 back in December. Their other 4 games vs respectable tournament quality opponents were all losses.

To recap:

Cackle With Knowing Glee: New Mexico St, South Dakota St, Colorado, Montana, or Ohio

Worry If: Belmont, Davidson, or Long Beach St (or whomever Long Beach Supplants from the 12-line).

Good night and see you after the selection show tomorrow.

TLDR: The three seed is currently a coin flip. We have a really good chance to have a team we should throttle in the opening round.