Mid-Week Metrics Indoctrinates
Top Plays
Play 18, +13.4%, Robinson to Roundtree for 46 on 3rd and 8
Play 73, +6.6%, Robinson scores from the 14 on 3rd and 1
Play 52, +6.3% Robinson to Hemingway for 26 on 3rd and 6
Bottom Plays
Play 46, –11.1%, Martinez to Kinnie for a 54 yard TD
Play 59, –7.6%, Brett Maher hits a 51 yard FG
Plays 54/55, –7.1%, Terrence Moore intercepts Denard (-5.1%) and returns it to the Michigan 34 (-2.0%)
It’s nice to see Denard re-claim the top 3 with both running and passing, all on big third down plays. Also good, when the second most negative play of the day was one that (at that point) was one you had no control over.
Nebraska Game Scores
Rushing: +1, not spectacular but effective
Passing: +9, second only to Northwestern, a very efficient performance
Rush defense: +2, didn’t allow Nebraska to do enough to set up the pass
Pass defense: +3, since ND, no games worse than -2
Special Team: +1, positive for the 4th straight game, even without counting the fumbles
Denard: +14 overall, +11 passing and +2 rushing, only Northwestern and ND were higher at +15
Toussaint: –3, final TD considered garbage time, would have pushed him to par
Martinez -4, +0 pass, -4 rush, his worst game of the year and first negative in the Big 10
Burkhead: +0 on his fewest carries of the year
Heisman and Award Tracking
My top 3 Heisman/QB:
1. RG3, Baylor: +3.39 WPA (2nd), +13 PAN (1st)
2. Russell Wilson, Wisconsin: +3.24 (3rd), +13 (2nd)
3. Kellen Moore, Boise St.: +1.77 (24th), +11 (4th)
Denard Robinson: +2.50 (7th), +5 (28th)
Robert Griffin’s big game against Oklahoma propelled him into the number 1 spot over Russell Wilson. Case Keenum is right in the mix, as well, but Kellen Moore gets the third spot thanks to the games against Georgia and TCU. Andrew Luck remains absent based on his good but not great resume.
Top RB:
1. LaMichael James, Oregon: +.69 (9th), +3 (3rd)
2. Joseph Randle, Oklahoma St: +.39 (24th), +3 (5th)
3. Montee Ball, Wisconsin: +.67 (10th), +3 (7th)
Trent Richardson, Aabama: +.29 (34th), +2 (11th)
Fitz Toussaint: +.22 (40th), +1 (41st)
As you can see from the magnitude of the RB numbers versus the QB numbers, I just can’t justify putting an RB on my Heisman ballot.
Top WR:
1. Kendall Wright, Baylor: +1.94 (4th), +9 (2nd)
2. Gerell Robinson, Arizona St: +2.47 (1st), +8 (7th)
3. Sammy Watkins, Clemson: +1.40 (12th), +8 (4th)
Sammy Watkins has slumped as the season as progressed and Gerell Robinson has come on strong of late. Justin Blackmon’s season has still been strong but nowhere near the dominance he had last year. Former Michigan opponents Jordan White and Jeremy Ebert where near contenders.
Top DL:
1. Ronnell Lewis, Oklahoma
2. Whitney Mercilus, Illinois
3. Devon Still, Penn St
Top LB:
1. AJ Johnson, Tennessee
2. Danny Trevathan, Kentucky
3. Johnathan Brown, Illinois
Top DB:
1. Tony Jefferson, Oklahoma
2. Antonio Allen, South Carolina
3. DeQuan Menzie, Alabama
Defensive players are rated based on how many negative EV plays they make and the magnitude of those plays. They are then divided by the number of non-garbage time plays the entire defense has faced so teams that force a lot of three and outs aren’t punished.
Ron Zook Dumb Punt of the Week
Some tough calls this week. Notre Dame and BC both punted from inside the 45 with less than 5 yards to go in the second half, twice! Even though that game was an ug-fest both coaches get awarded dumb punt of the week.
Normally, I would have given the award to Mack Brown at Texas for punting from the 45 on 4th and 5 down 7 in the fourth quarter to Kansas St, but when your defense only gives up 120 yards for the game there is a defensible case for it.
The Game Preview
My son just turned three and he is starting to watch a little bit of football now. He always wears his jersey and says “Go Michigan” and asks every morning if today is a football day. I started getting nervous a couple weeks ago when watching other games he started telling me “I like the red team” for any team with red uniforms. This could not stand. So I started telling him that the red team was bad and he like Michigan. Yesterday I gave him a test and asked him if he liked Michigan or the red team, he yelled “Michigan!” and then told me, unprompted, that the red team is sad. I hope he is right, they deserve to be very, very sad.
PAN, National Rank (leader), B1G Rank (leader)
Rush Offense
Michigan: +4, 10th (Georgia Tech), 2nd (Wisconsin)
vs Ohio D: +1, 38th, 6th
Pass Offense
Michigan: +2, 41st (Boise St), 5th (Wisconsin)
vs Ohio D: +4, 15th, 3rd
Rush Defense
Michigan: +2, 25th (Alabama), 4th (Illinois)
vs Ohio O: +1, 34th, 4th
Pass Defense
Michigan: +2, 36th (Oklahoma St), 6th (Penn St)
vs Ohio O: –4, 109th, 12th
Special Teams
Michigan: +0, 74th (Florida St), 8th (Purdue)
Ohio: +2, 23rd, 3rd
A one-dimensional offense against Greg Mattison, yes please. Limit the turnovers and don’t allow any big special teams plays and I think the streak is over. Michigan 28-20
November 23rd, 2011 at 12:36 PM ^
I really do feel that we are going to dominate and I want to be ballsy and call a 17 pt win...30-13 Michigan victory.
And my neice does the same thing. She will stand in front of the tv and scream "Go Blue!!" Recently converted her (and soon her little brother once he starts talking) from the Jayhawks (brother in law is from Kansas)
November 23rd, 2011 at 12:50 PM ^
I'm suprised the roughing the kicker call on our punt wasn't one of the top 3 positive plays for us. It let us keep the ball and we ended up scoring on that drive to put it out of reach. I thought that was very big at the time.
BEAT OHIO!
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:07 PM ^
Keep in mind it's all based on statistical analysis of other games over the last 10 years or so. Most teams with a 14 point lead in the second half are going to win regardless of whether they have to punt or get to keep the ball. By the time that happened, we already had a ~90% chance to win, so keeping the ball or punting wasn't going to affect the game all that much.
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:42 PM ^
The penalty was worth 2.2%
November 23rd, 2011 at 3:09 PM ^
I guess it was worth less than I expected probably b/c the odds of scoring 6 from that point on the field was low. But we did and basically pushed it out of reach. That drive as a whole pushed it from ~90% to 99% a win based on my gut, not the numbers. Good thing we have Mathlete around.
November 23rd, 2011 at 12:59 PM ^
Denard: +14 overall, +11 passing and +2 rushing
And you call yourself the "Mathlete"?
(Note: Tongue is firmly planted in cheek)
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:04 PM ^
They are very large values of 11 and 2.
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:30 PM ^
The numbers in your diaries normally align pretty well with what we see on the field, but one of the numbers really confuses me this week. How does Toussaint end up at -3 after his performance this week?
November 23rd, 2011 at 1:44 PM ^
It's hard for RB's to put up big numbers in general, and with nearly 30 carries it takes a lot of yards to put up a big number. Plus, his final TD run plus several other carries were omitted due to the score/time situation.
November 23rd, 2011 at 2:00 PM ^
A stat ought to say something that can be expressed in words. A minus three means he hurt the team. How?
November 23rd, 2011 at 2:04 PM ^
I have a big post on this coming up in the next month or two and I don't want to spoil too much of it, but in general, running backs are highly over valued. Passing the ball is a much more efficient use of downs. Fitz had an excellent game by normal standards and its nothing against him, just that he used a lot of downs that could have gotten more value from passing.
November 23rd, 2011 at 5:17 PM ^
The Mathlete is really Bill Belichek?!
November 23rd, 2011 at 6:20 PM ^
Looking forward to it. That will be a good read.
November 23rd, 2011 at 2:04 PM ^
with my impression of RGIII. Win over Okie was impressive as are his overall stats. Will have to see how intelligent the Heisman voters are or how swayed they are by they Lucky Hype. I still voted for Denard in the Cap One performance of the week, but wasn't surprised RGIII was winning it by a landslide.
November 23rd, 2011 at 11:09 PM ^
After Michigan humiliates Ohio, your son's clairvoyance about the sad red team will be apparent.
November 24th, 2011 at 9:32 AM ^
Years from now you can tell your son you saved him from a life of misery. The world thanks you.
November 24th, 2011 at 9:59 AM ^
My wife works for Notre Dame and comes from a family that roots for Notre Dame. When my son was born she kept telling me that I had to let him choose, Michigan or Notre Dame. Well when I returned from the 1994 Colorado game my brother-in-law was there having my 4 year old son saying "Michigan stinks". It was at that moment that the gloves came off and his destiny was set to be a Michigan fan. He learned about Fielding Yost, Willie Heston, Germany Schultz, Bennie Oosterbaan, Fritz Crisler, Tommy Harmon, Ron Kramer, Bo Schembechler, Bob Ufer, etc, etc. He learned to call the Big House home. 17 years later he will be in the student section one last time and is on target to walk into the Big House this spring a student and walk out a graduate.
When he was about 10 or 11 he was asked at a family gathering why he hated Notre Dame so much. His response, "that is what Dad taught me to do". Brought a tear to my eye. And his dislike for Ohio runs much deeper as it should.
Go Blue!
November 25th, 2011 at 12:39 AM ^
Last week when you said we had greater than 60% chance of winning I didn't believe you and said as much. I was wrong. You were right. And I can't wait to see if your % over Ohio State remains as high as it was!
November 28th, 2011 at 3:38 PM ^
Mathlete,
Do you have any statistical predictions on M's chances of getting to the Sugar Bowl (i.e., Georgia loosing, MSU winning, etc.)?
Many thanks again!
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