Michigan football in 5 years.
Lots of talk about the possible dismissal of Brady Hoke this week. And deservedly so. We lose.... often. Those traditions not being ignored are cannibalized to maximize profit. The students aren't interested because the games are too filled with commercial timeouts and the product sucks. We are treated to a weekly air show made up of private planes. Sweet Caroline and Sweet Cherry Pie. Thank goodness for the regents' call on the fireworks.
Is Michigan Football broken? If it is then someone else needs to repair it. Dave Brandon can go to hell (or at lease be fired) immediately, but what of Hoke? The last 10 games have been awful, there's no denying, but I see hope. The coaches talk about the building of a foundation and I see that. The defense appears to be poised to be near-elite by the end of the year. The offensive line remains bad, but it's clearly improved from last year and this while working with an entirely new offense (again). The skill positions are fine and improving. The QB situation will figure itself out as the line provides better protection and a better running game. Our players seem like decent guys and I don't worry about a tattoo or car scandal hitting campus.
The fact is I want my Michigan Football back and it's not my Michigan Football without a "Bo" level of class. Hoke strives for this and it's important. For those who want to compete the way the SEC competes I have no good argument. It just isn't my thing and I don't want to associate myself with it. There was so much promise after Hoke's first season. Even before this season. But we all suspected 2015 would be our real year to compete. Starting over now may put off winning another 5 years.
Here's what I think.....In 5 years Ohio won't give a damn about our whole state and they'll field a good team. Iowa or someone else will replace Sparty as a good B1G team that isn't normally very good. Tennessee or Miami will be in the news for a group of their players caught with a retail supply of the drug of the day. Mississippi State will be caught up in an academic scandal. Auburn and Alabama will each have 24 verbal commitments on their way to 33 member classes. USC will be breaking in another head coach. And if we stay the course, Michigan will be a Top 10 team we will be proud to associate with. The damage done by Lloyd's end-of-career bad recruiting and RichRod's poor performance (his fault or not) have taken time to fix. We're almost home.
September 24th, 2014 at 4:10 PM ^
Utah hired a new OC this off season. They seemed to function ok scoring 50+ versus baby seals and 26 against our "pretty good" defense.
September 24th, 2014 at 5:52 PM ^
September 26th, 2014 at 12:34 AM ^
Nuss and Borges offenses aren't 180 degrees different. New plays, new terminology sure, but it's not like we're talking a Carr to Rodriguez type of shift in the offensive philosophy. I figured there'd be some struggles and a learning curve but 3 points and no appearances in the red zone against ND and Utah is pretty bad.
September 24th, 2014 at 10:00 PM ^
10 on very short fields. 1 legit drive all day.
September 24th, 2014 at 1:00 PM ^
The program is still paying for the "Michigan Men" who gutted the personnel and recruiting during Rich Rod's tenure. They were the people who needed to show "class" and didn't.
Hoke has restocked the personnel in a lot of ways, but they can't continue to play 1970's football in the 21st century. As long as the idiot in the AD office is mandating MANBALL, Michigan will continue to be an enigma: a top-twenty educational institution that would rather out-brawn opponents on the field than out-think them.
September 25th, 2014 at 1:25 PM ^
First, let me state I honestly don't know if Brady should be back next year. I do think he should finish out the year, and that everyone should support him and the team as much as possible during that time.
To me a successful UM season at this point is
* an offense that starts to improve after hitting bottom at home vs. Utah.
* a defense that continues to improve to truly elite levels.
* development at all position groups (O line, D line, QB, recievers, DB's...)
* special team improvement.
* a more spirited team. We can't have a 2nd half like UM did vs. Utah.
I'm not tying this to a scheme or a record. If the above happens I think we finish out with 8, maybe 9 wins and a decent bowl.
Where I see Michigan now:
O line is improving, but still has major issues.
D is legitimately good, ranked nationally.
QB has regressed under Gardner. There may be multiple reasons. PTSD from last year; new system, bad coaching, unknown injuries, foot not completely healed. All are possible, though bad coaching seems at least unlikely due to Nuss success elsewhere.
Special teams are bad.
Recievers are performing largely well, but are hampered by QB play.
With the exception of Special Teams and the QB, the team does appear to be developing. But QB play is killing us right now, and special teams aren't helping.
We do have a foundation. All is not doom. The Offense might improve if we think Nuss is the OC we thought he was when he came. If it does and the D doesn't regress we will start winning real games; or at least realistically compete. If that happens, I say Brady stays for the next year and I think we'll be fine. If it doesn't, all bets are off. I'm rooting for ther former and hope to God it happens.
Here is where I'm going to be a bit controversial:
The Norfleet interview made an impact on me.
The complaining is getting over the top; and I'm tired of the vitriol spewed out there. Brian seems schizophrenic; the UFR's seem to be reasoned and balanced. The podcast he's 'Fire everyone they're all incompetent'. Nuss is incompetent? Mattison (high ranked D) is incompetent? They're starting to sound like the old muppet men in the balcony.
I hear that 'its coaching malpractice' to have DG not run read option plays because you should tailor your offense to its strengths. But IIRC when RR was here, it was wise to just run the read option and not the pro set despite the fact we didn't have read option players because 'that was the direction we were headed in.'
I hear that we can't win like this because we have a '70's' or 'archaic' or 'old fashioned' offense; so we have to make a change.
We need some realistic current state and risk analysis. We're 4-8 over the last 12 and that's horrible. Maybe we turn it around. I think we might. But maybe we won't.
But IMHO very little of it has to do with 'Manball' or 'archaic plays' or 'coaching incompetence'. Nuss and Mattison are very competent. Just as RR was before them. Hoke has done well before too. They've certainly recruited well. The read option spread is a nice, viable scheme. Its not the only one that can be successful. Nor is it even the most likely one to be successful. For every Oregon there is a Stanford. For every OSU there's an MSU. And then there's 'Bama.
If this coaching staff continues to fail, and we have to make a change. So be it. But I'll support them until then. But if we make that change we have to understand it comes frought with risk. If we get a spread guy, that's great, and I'll support him. But unless we get Chip Kelly and all the assistants he wants its unlikely that we are national contenders in a couple years. If we get a pro style guy, that's great and I'll support him; and we might be ahead of the curve there talent wise. But it still might be awhile until yet another coaching system takes affect unless Harbaugh is our guy.
The 'new coach instant success story' is always compelling but I bet if you run the numbers it seldom happens. The coaching/team/AD chemistry has to come together just right for that; and some of it is luck.
So lets buckle down, level our expectations, root for the team that's here, and if there's a change not get our undies into a bunch if its not the scheme we want or we see with our fan eyes what appears to be 'coaching stupidity' as the new people work on the team. Instant success is a hoped for dream, not a reasonable goal.
September 25th, 2014 at 1:44 PM ^
. . this IS so much more level headed and sound reasoning in my opinion. +1 to both of you.
September 24th, 2014 at 1:23 PM ^
September 24th, 2014 at 2:07 PM ^
...is going to be the baddest-assed team of marauders the Ivy League has ever SEEN.
September 24th, 2014 at 3:48 PM ^
Bravo.
September 24th, 2014 at 3:55 PM ^
...our new coach will be struggling to implement his pro-style offense with the dual-threat QB left behind by his predecessor, who failed when his spread offense never quite gelled under Morris, Speight or DeWeaver and went looking for recruits that weren't just drop-back passers.
September 24th, 2014 at 4:12 PM ^
At his presser before this Saturday's game to kick off the beginning of the Big Ten portion of the 2019 season Michigan's head coach Brady Hoke (3-0, 0-0 conference) reminded fans that the goal is always to win the conference championship and while it would be great for his "kids", the program, and "this wonderful university" to repeat as national champions he, the staff, and the team were focused on winning their third Big Ten Championship in a row. "Well... Last year was great, ya know it's always great to go undefeated. But last season is the past and we have to look forward and our focus our goal never changes it is always winning that championship".
September 24th, 2014 at 9:59 PM ^
and I admire your loyalty and hopefulness, but there is no visible path from here to there. A plus B does not equal C, there are not enough lily pads to get there, pick any metaphor. Instead, why not be hopeful for this exact same scenario but with a different coach inserted for Hoke?
September 25th, 2014 at 11:16 AM ^
I'm among the older people here. I remember the Michigan teams of the 1960s so I am no stranger to adversity regarding Michigan football. That is probably why I take the "long term" view of the program. I understand the difference in the requirements to field a winning team and building or rebuilding a winning program that consistently produces excellence year in and out.
In my professional life I've been brought in to fix (or perhaps rescue) large broken organizations with revenues larger than the MIchigan athletic department. These had far fewer people and all of them were older than the student athletes, but there were many people, skillset, management, and motivational problems in every case. So I have a perspective on how hard it can be to salvage a badly broken program and how long it can take. I also understand how disruptive a massive management roll over can be and the incredible importance of cadre.
Since Hoke arrived he has not just restored recruiting, he has rebuilt much of the good parts of the culture, and is in the process of restoring the core cadre of the team. The offense continues to struggle but the defense, which in my view has had far more continuity, is good verging on great. He has assembled a tremendous staff. I disagree with the argument that players are not being developed for reasons I'll explain below. I think that Hoke is neither over his head nor incompetent and believe that he has demonstrated the necessary skills to direct his staff and motivate his players to produce winning football teams and a winning football l program while maintaining the standard that Michigan claims to hold dear.
Since I believe this I naturally would like to see Hoke succeed and enjoy the fruits produced by his hard work and commitment to the University and its football program.
Now I freely admit that Hoke may fail and he may not get the job done. More than once I've been fired in my professional life for failing to salvage a broken program or company. So I'm no polyanna that hard work assures success.
In this specific case I still believe that, barring a complete collapse this season, the time to decide about keeping or dump Hoke is at the end of the 2015 season. If he can't turn things around by then he probably can't get it done. My criteria is, that barring really awful injuries, Michigan wins their division and plays in the 2015 conference championship game. This probably means that Michigan also defeats both MSU and Ohio.
Why next year and not this year? One word answer - Cadre.
By the time management or ownership calls me for help the organization has almost always been through a long period of disruption. The single largest factor in the time required to set things right, beyond the realities of technical lead times, is how much of the organization's cadre survived. Cadre exists across all levels of the organization both managment and worker. They are the people that maintain the culture and hold the internal expertise on which the organization was built. If they are largely gone the organization can not truly achieve success until that is rebuilt or replaced. Sometimes the surviving cadre is so damaged it must be fired or retired and recreated from scratch.
A football team's cadre is its fourth and fifth year players. Even if they aren't starters they are a repository of knowledge both technical and cultural upon which underclassmen can rely to increase their rate of growth. They are like the junior NCOs in a military organiziton. If they are missing or if change has invalidated their knowledge then the coaches must do everything. This remains true until that knowledge and maturity has been rebuilt.
The coaching and program changes from 2007-2011 wiped out the value of what knowledge the upperclassmen possessed. The retention failures of the 2009 and 2010 classes wiped out most of that population itself. We are in the fifth week of Hoke's fourth season, that is not enough time to fix this problem. It is exacerbated by the continual changes in the offensive scheme.
It is my belief that if Hoke is fired, unless the program is remarkably lucky and hires exactly the right head coach, assuming that person even exists to be hired, it is likely to undergo yet another disruption that will churn not just the coaching staff but the cadre that Hoke and his guys are working so hard to build. Each churn does more damage than the last and I view that as a very costly risk.
While last season and this season so far has been painful and disappointing, there is progress across all areas of the program for those who are willing to look. Not as much as any of us would like, but it is real. If that was not the case I'd say time for a change, but at this point I'll give Hoke another year.
September 25th, 2014 at 12:51 PM ^
You're my favorite uncle Uncle Fred! VERY well said, and you might as well have been reading my mind as I agree with EVERYTHING you've said above.
I've tried and tried to get people to understand the points you make about the "Cadre" the upperclassmen, and how important the "pipeline" (which includes retention) is to the KEY success of a football program.
Again, as you aptly point out, some transitions leave the Cadre in tact and the organization comes through it with minimal effect. This was not the case with Michigan's transitions -- neither from Carr to RR, nor from RR to Hoke.
I fear that many Michigan fans are blind to these issues, and are beating drums that if heeded by the PTB, will cause far more damage than anyone expects. It's like a Messianic cult has developed in regard to the Michigan head coaching position, and its members refuse to acknowlegde that there are mitigating factors that a coaching change will not solve.
Michigan football broke -- the dates of when this occurred are debatable -- and to regain its position among CFB's elite, the factors that plague it MUST be fixed. Hoke is fixing them, and the results will come.
September 25th, 2014 at 2:02 PM ^
..........DOOMSDAY contributors to this blog read this - and Sten, jmdblue and JFW - I would love all of your posts be on the front page - to calm the masses!
Hoke has a 5 year contract - because that was the timetable set. I truly believe it will happen in that 5 years. If not, I may have been looking at it with too BLUE tinted glasses. If he does not accomplish the on-field results enough to warrant renewal - I will understand the change - but I will also know he did a great deal to move the dial in the right direction for the next guy. He cares about the big picture, he loves our University, he has a plan and he is in the midst of bringing it home.
As you all have appropiately identified, when there is a plan, prudence and patience are still valuable virtues.
Go Blue!
September 26th, 2014 at 3:20 AM ^
A decision on HC needs to be made at the end of this season. Either Hoke will be fired or him and his staff will get a new contract or contract extension. It would be so disruptive to recruiting and to his staff to have them play a stress filled hot seat 2015 season. A decision will have to be made after the OSU game.
If play improves and the team goes 7-5, I say we keep Hoke and hopefully see improvement in 2015 and through is contract extension. I think Hoke has the capabilities of hitting a 9 or 10 win per year ceiling, with an exceptional 11-1 or 12-0 season possible once or twice in his coaching career at Michigan.
If play does not improve and we finish 6-6 or lower. I would say start over, even if it means another couple years of rebuilding. Though the next coach will have a full cupboard, more so than RR and Hoke.
September 26th, 2014 at 10:49 AM ^
I'd think a new AD would have a strong bias towards putting off the decision until he's got his feet on the ground. (And I'll admit I'd prefer this too. I don't care how long it takes, I want it to be done right.)
I fully expect a one-year extension with the real decision taken in 2015, unless the wheels fall off to the tune of multiple blowouts down the stretch or there's a spectacular championship run. The extension means nothing about job security, it's just something you have to do for stability's sake.
September 26th, 2014 at 4:26 PM ^
As I commented elsewhere his contract runs December 31, 2016, and beyond if required for a bowl game. So no decision about an extention needs to be made until the end of 2015.
Is another two years of rebuilding following a coaching change reasonable? Maybe. No one ever knows in advance what the impact on the current players, their development, and the recruiting pipeline will be until a while after the change. With the "right" hire the impact might be close to non-existent. With the "wrong" hire it could be another 4+ years.
One thing is certain, if Hoke is fired Mattison is gone. Anyone who listens to Mattison's last presser and doubts that for a moment is not paying attention. So the incoming coach won't have the option to keep Mattison around for continuity on the defense. If Hoke is fired it will be because Nussmeier can't get it done on the offensive side of the ball, so how likely is it that he is retained. The most likely outcome from firing Hoke at the end of this season is that both the offense and defense get new coaching staffs, new schemes and suffer a major disruption. If the firing is announced before signing day (which it pretty much has to be to give time to find a coach), some number of the incoming recruits will jump ship. Of course the incoming coach may hold them or pull a few in if he has the reputation.
Starting the 2015 season with an offense in their fourth new offense in five years and the defense in a brand new scheme, both under new coaches is not a receipe for a "smooth" transition. There is no way to foresee the roster impact which may be nil or problematic. It is certainly possible, perhaps even likely that rebuilding could take another 3 years or more.
Fans are screaming about the team being lousy since 2007 and pouring their frustration on a coach who has only been here since 2011 and went 11-2 in his first season. How patient can anyone expect them to be if they have to deal two more years of problems let alone three or four?
Yeah the offense is struggling badly, but the defense is really coming together and we can reasonably expect that defensive improvement will continue. If we keep Hoke, Nussmeier, and Mattison they only have to fix the offense, not everything at the same time.
As I said above, unless the situation gets a good deal worse, the time to decide about Hoke is not this season.
September 26th, 2014 at 12:17 PM ^
September 25th, 2014 at 12:49 AM ^
Michigan's defense held Utah to 19 points with 4 turnovers from the offense. I'd say that is pretty good.
September 26th, 2014 at 3:46 PM ^
Really 12 points, since they scored seven themselves.
September 25th, 2014 at 12:54 AM ^
We lose 3 people total on defense and 2 people total on offense. That is pretty good.
September 25th, 2014 at 6:47 PM ^
Aren't these very the same guys we're currently imploding with on offense?
September 25th, 2014 at 5:11 AM ^
The students (a la future season ticket holders) are more apathetic than ever. Then of course there was the debacle of unreasonable price increases. Yet now the AD is so desperate to fill the stadium that tickets are being sold for the price of a 20 oz Coke. Honestly, who the hell is going to want to pay hundreds to renew season tickets when this is happening?
I really think that Brandon may have alienated fans, students, and alumni to the point in which the fanbase could progressively diminish in size as people become increasingly indifferent. Hence, I'm worried Michigan Football could lose whatever prominence it's still clinging to. It's not impossible we could turn into an Illinois type program that's typically mediocre aside from the occasional above average season. And if people don't have enough interest, the team would receive hardly any media coverage or publicity.
So essentially, I fear Dave Brandon has laid the foundation for mediocrity. This makes it that much more important Hoke starts winning asap. Or that he's replaced soon by a proven, elite coach...but I think our odds of that are fairly slim.
September 26th, 2014 at 12:01 PM ^
Comments