Hello again, internet,
I conducted a survey this past week (started on Monday) about how people expected Michigan to perform over any given 20 year period. A big thank you goes out to the 328 MGoUsers who pitched in their opinions. Here are your results. I was going to do fancy stuff like trendlines and variance, but then I got lazy. Sorry.
Each survey question's graph is linked in each section's title, and the analysis lies below each image. I've also included the actual results over the past 20 years (1994-2013).
Average Expected: 1.92
Over Last 20 Years: 1
Analysis: The six people who expect a national championship every year do sway the average a bit, but still, this seems high to me. I put 1, but honestly expect 1 every 30-40 years. Of course, I started being a fan in 2008, so my maize-colored glasses are pretty transparent.
Average Expected: 7.84
Over Last 20 Years: 5
Analysis: I guess this is reasonable. I do think Ohio takes the lion's share of the titles, but we should be a clear 2nd, and closer to 1st than 3rd. As much as I love Michigan, I can't get over the recruiting advantage that OSU has. MSU's emergence and persistance and the addition of Nebraska do lower my expectation a bit, as well.
Average Expected: 10.70
Over Last 20 Years: 7
Analysis: Putting in the 2013 data point was tough, man. Luckily, we're not too far off splitting, despite The StreakTM. I still think Ohio has the edge here because of recruiting, but we should be close to even. Beat Ohio.
Average Expected: 14.25
Over Last 20 Years: 12
Analysis: Works for me, 3 every 4. Unless Narduzzi never leaves. Which fuck.
Average Expected: 18.41
Over Last 20 Years: 15/16 (didn't play 4 of the years)
Analysis: Again, I became a fan in 2008. I fully expect to beat Minnesota all of the time.
Average Expected: 9.58
Over Last 20 Years: 6.04*
*For this, I collected all of the recruiting team rankings from the 4 major recruiting services (247, Scout, Rivals, ESPN) and found out how many #1 B1G finishes we had for as long as the service was tracking it. Note that 3 of the services' first team rankings were in 2002, and ESPN started in 2006. I then projected our average amount of #1 finishes over 20 years, and then calculated the average over the 4 services.
Analysis: Many people will say (and did say in the survey comments) that conference position doesn't matter, and there's an argument there, sure. I've typed out and deleted a few sentences defending it, but I'm too lazy to start an argument against. Just look at the data, meh.
CONCLUSION: Everyone is unreasonable except me. I'd love to run a similar survey for the other schools' fanbases, but that is an effort for another day.