The Michigan Difference - Wisconsin Edition

Submitted by TennBlue on

Here's this week's update to The Michigan Difference, updated with stats from this week's games.

Another bipolar game against Wisconsin.  The final offensive output was pretty good, but the defense couldn't stand up to their rushing attack.  We remain #5 in Total Offense (TO) and are now #112 in Total Defense (TD).

Disclaimer: The NCAA stats are not linear, of course, and a difference of 1 yd/gm can be a large or small difference in rankings depending on how closely spaced everyone is.  So as I cautioned, this isn't a hard-core statistical exercise.  This analysis is pretty one-dimensional because it's long and complicated enough as it is.

I think the greatest value in this is to look back at the early games and see how well we did in comparison to what other teams ended up doing against them - what seemed like a good or bad performance at the time may look different in retrospect.

 

Part the First: Offense

We know our offense is great, but what kind of damage has it done to the Total Defense (TD) ratings of our opponents?  Here they are thus far:

Opponents' Total Defense, Season
Opponent Games Yards Yielded Yds/gm NCAA Rank
Connecticut 10 3512 351.20 44
Notre Dame 11 3977 361.55 55
Bowling Green 11 4742 431.09 104
Indiana 11 4612 419.27 94
Michigan State 11 3657 332.45 28
Iowa 11 3423 311.18 14
Penn State 11 3899 354.45 48
Illinois 11 3766 342.36 35
Purdue 11 4025 365.91 58
Wisconsin 11 3598 327.09 26

 

What would these guys' defensive stats look like if they hadn't played Michigan?

Michigan Offensive Performances
Opponent Total Offense, M

Opp. Avg - M,

Yds/gm*

M Total Offense,

% of Opp Avg - M**

NCAA Rank

Without M

Connecticut 473 337.67 140% 32
Notre Dame 532 344.50 154% 40
Bowling Green 721 402.10 179% 84
Indiana 574 403.80 142% 86
Michigan State 377 328.00 115% 27
Iowa 522 290.10 180% 6
Penn State 423 347.60 122% 44
Illinois 676 309.00 219% 13
Purdue 395 363.00 109% 57
Wisconsin 442 315.60 140% 16

*Opponents' average Total Defense yards per game, minus the Michigan game

**Michigan's Total Offense in game as a % of the opponent's average TD minus the Michigan game

Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin's defenses really wish they hadn't played us.  They'd be in the top 20 nationally but for one game.  Michigan has gained above our opponents' average yardage yielded in every game thus far, and their Total Defense rankings have suffered as a result.  What's the damage?

The Michigan Difference, Offense
Opponent TD Rank With M TD Rank Without M Difference
Connecticut 44 32 -12
Notre Dame 55 40 -15
Bowling Green 104 84 -20
Indiana 94 86 -8
Michigan State 28 27 -1
Iowa 14 6 -8
Penn State 48 44 -4
Illinois 35 13 -22
Purdue 58 57 -1
Wisconsin 26 16 -10

Average change in Total Defense ranking for all opponents:  -10.1 places.

Looking at the offensive performance versus the quality of the defense:

There is little correlation between Michigan's Total Offense for a game and their opponent's average Total Defense (minus M).  Whatever is limiting our offense's output in a game, it is not directly related to the number of yards the opponent usually gives up.  This would suggest that the offense tends to be limited by itself, rather than the opponent.

Part the Second, Defense

So the flipside of this, then, is how much has our defensive suckitude helped out our opponents stat sheet?  Where would they rank in Total Offense without having played us?  We'll run the same tables again, but from the opposite tack:

Michigan Opponents' Offensive Performances, Season
Opponent Games Yards Gained Yds/gm NCAA Rank
Connecticut 10 3311 331.10 95
Notre Dame 11 4243 385.73 58
Bowling Green 11 3137 285.18 114
Indiana 11 4247 386.09 57
Michigan State 11 4549 413.55 37
Iowa 11 4335 394.09 51
Penn State 11 4093 372.09 66
Illinois 11 4230 384.55 61
Purdue 11 3429 311.73 102
Wisconsin 11 4843 440.27 23

Wisconsin is easily the strongest offensive team we've faced thus far.  The results of the game show that.  MSU was pretty good, the rest varying degrees of average to bad.

                              

Michigan Defensive Performances

Opponent

Total Defense, M

Opp. Avg - M,

Yds/gm*

Opp Total Offense,

% of Opp Avg - M**

NCAA Rank

Without M

Connecticut 343 329.78 104% 96
Notre Dame 535 370.80 144% 69
Bowling Green 283 285.40 99% 114
Indiana 568 367.90 154% 71
Michigan State 536 401.30 134% 47
Iowa 383 395.20 97% 51
Penn State 435 365.80 119% 72
Illinois 561 366.90 152% 70
Purdue 256 317.30 81% 101
Wisconsin 558 428.50 130% 32

* Opponents' average Total Offensive performance, minus the Michigan game

** Opponents' Total Offense as a percentage of their average offensive performance, minus the Michigan game

Here's a nifty graph of our opponents' Total Offense against Michigan, versus their average Total Offense per game without the Michigan game:

In this case, we do have a reasonably good correlation.  Our defense does worse against better offenses.  That would suggest that we're talent-limited somewhere (either coaches or players) and the opponents' offenses tend to have their way with us.  In other words, our defense doesn't shut anybody down.  The more yards our opponents average per game, the better they'll do against us.

To summarize:

The Michigan Difference, Defense
Opponent TO Rank With M TO Rank Without M Difference
Connecticut 95 96 +1
Notre Dame 58 69 +11
Bowling Green 114 114 0
Indiana 57 71 +14
Michigan State 37 47 +10
Iowa 51 51 0
Penn State 66 72 +6
Illinois 61 70 +9
Purdue 102 101 -1
Wisconsin 23 32 +9

Average boost to opponents' Total Offense NCAA ranking: +5.9 places

From this perspective, the Wisconsin game was our 4th worst defensive performance of the year.  As bad as we looked, three other games were worse.  We were up against a very good offense, and it showed.

Part the Third:  Summary

The Michigan Difference, Overall
Opponent

Michigan's O Difference

on Opp TD Ranking

Michigan's D Difference

on Opp TO Ranking

 
Connecticut -12 +1 W: Good O, OK D
Notre Dame -15 +11 W: Good O, Terrible D
Bowling Green -20 0 W: Awesome O, OK D
Indiana -8 +14 W: Good O, Terrible D
Michigan State -1 +10 L: OK O, Terrible D
Iowa -8 0 L: Good O, OK D
Penn State -4 +6 L:Good O, Bad D
Illinois -22 +9 W:, Awesome O, Terrible D
Purdue -1 --1 W: OK O, OK D
Wisconsin -10 +9 L: Good O, Terrible D

In subtly maize-and-blue graphical form:

 

New observations for this week:

  • Many of our previous opponents had good weeks offensively, making our defense look a bit better less bad in those previous games.
  • Wisconsin is easily the best team we've faced yet.  Offensive and defensive performances were close to mid-pack, but we got our butts kicked.
  • Our offense remains impressive and will keep getting better.
  • Our defense is terrible and had better get a lot better.
  • Winning is still a lot more fun than losing.

Comments

willywill9

November 23rd, 2010 at 7:59 PM ^

Wow, this is very interesting and very telling.  Thank you for doing this.

It's crazy to think how much Michigan's performance hurt Illinois' ranking... I know ther was OT involved, but still interesting nonetheless.

I'm going to assume we will give up somewhere between 110-120% of Ohio State's normal offensive performance.  :(