Michigan Betting Advice

I agree. I bet a lot of people here would be able to do pretty well betting on Michigan. People here already know everything about Michigan so they only have to research the other teams.

I've done my fair share of betting and I have done by far the best betting on Michigan games. You can pretty easily pick your spots to win big (Michigan vs Notre Dame 06, Michigan vs Illinois 07, Michigan vs MSU 05) when you know Mich is underrated.

Anyway, Ziff, what do you think the line will be on ND/Nevada? I saw Nevada play in the Humanitarian Bowl last year and Kaepernick looked very good, although they lost the game because of a few mistakes, I think we will see a lot less of those with another year of experience. On top of that I feel very strongly that ND is over-rated. If that line climbs up to 10 or above I think thats a great bet... Do you think it will?

The best point made was the local adjustment to the line due to homer fans betting the home team. I have been betting for years and have always done well betting against the local teams due to te inflated lines. I have never went so far as to get bookies in different places(Columbus for example) in order to take advantage of the local inflation in other markets but I may just do that this year.

You hardly are stepping on any toes. I am not an expert gambler, I just play one on some blogs. And its good to see other people talking about sports through this eye. We're all out for the same thing: winners.

And, I am a big believer in betting on games involving your team based on exactly what you said above. But I would caution beginning betters from doing a lot of that, only because I think the heart still wins out a lot in those cases. You look at teams from a whole different perspective when you are a succesful and experience gambler, including your favorite team. That perspective helps you kinda squash your heart in the key moment when you're going to the window for a bet. But, its a perspective that I think takes a while to develop.

The only thing I can add to those reading this diary is dont over analyze what Vegas or the oddsmakers want you to do. They want one thing, for you to lose. I believe that Vegas both wants to set lines for even money, but also has their eyes set on games they can trap a bunch of one sided action and rake.

So, just pick your games the way you pick games. Dont let their numbers push you around or intimidate you into or off of a pick. Its good to talk about what, if any, motives are behind a line, but if you think strongly about something, dont let those shenanigans dictate what you do.

Almost everything you said was wrong.

1.) Not true, and the longer you study line databases, the more you come to appreciate just how consistently right the books are. These are the guys with a vested interest in getting things right. Over the long haul, they consistently do.

2.) Not true again, or at least not always true. If the books know they can set the line too far to one direction and still take in more of the money, they'll do so. So if they know that they'll still get %70 of the money at -24 for Florida, and they think the "true line" is -18, they'll leave it there. They might even move it to -23 or -22 before gameday. Different lines serve different purposes, and you need to learn how to read them.

3.) There's two ways to look at this. True, individual bettors are not smart. But bettors in the aggregate are very smart. Otherwise, why would money so often balance around a number which, over time, turns out to be the median of a bell curve of expectations for a given game? The median and mode score of all NFL games over the past twelve years with the line set at home team -3 is home team -3. Same with home team +3. Same with -7 and +7. That is truly remarkable, when you think about it.

But here's the thing: the unsophisticated people think they're sophisticated. This is the trap I see everyone else falling into here as well. I guarantee you that if we took 10 readers and had them pick ATS every Big 10 game this season, at least 8 would finish below 52%. You could run the same experiment with any 5 NCAA or NFL game per week, and you'll get the same result, and I don't care how sophisticated you think they are. Vegas will beat you. It's their job.

The other way to look at this is that the books don't care a whit about the $100 bettor. They care about the syndicate and whales that drop $500,000 a game. Their lines better be good for the whales, because if they're not, they're getting cleaned out. And those guys are sophisticated.

4.) Sports betting is winnable, but not by many. I don't care how much research you do. I've only met one person in my life that claimed to be a sharp, could do actual research, and come out ahead, and I've traveled in gambling circles for quite a while. More consistent- but still difficult- are people who do market analysis type plays. But that's not easy either.

I think your perception is skewed by knowing people who do this locally as bookies. They, by and large, get their lines from people who are thinking about something different entirely. Do bookies try to balance the action to come ahead? Of course- these are penny-ante players that don't have the capitalization or the know-how to play the way that the Vegas books do. It's just a different world in the big leagues.

Your point 6 is probably accurate, and I bet you could win a fair amount of money in the long run and bet every single game where your bookie gave you a two point advantage over where the Vegas lines are set. But that just speaks, ultimately, to the accuracy of the Vegas lines

Problem with CFB betting is that there are only a handful of games that really stand out as good bets.....during the entire season.

IMO, the best teams to bet are ones like Florida, USC or Oklahoma. They have the ability to raise the score on anyone and blow an opponent's doors off. The downside to this strategy is the favorite usually spots the 'dog 30-45 points a game. That's a big spread to clear for any team. Works maybe 2/3rds of the time, and when you lose, plus adding in the vig, you are a scratch at best.

Big Ten games are notoriously tough to bet because the games are often low scoring(sucks for over/under bets), and the outcomes are tight versus the spread(your bet is really a random guess)no matter what team is playing.

While it's a blast to talk about...I've never met anyone here in Chicago, or in my many trips to Vegas, who has made real money betting football. A handful of the old guys in the sports books out there have hung around betting baseball, but they are barely making it, and don't have families, mortgages, Visa Card bills etc.

It doesn't happen very often, but I have made some money on Michigan State.

First, I'd generally take the points when they played Michigan, especially in Lloyd's later years. Second--and here's the "didn't happen very often" part--if they beat UM, they were usually a LOCK to lose their next game straight up, and certainly by the points. One game in particular was the year Lloyd was trying to decide between using Brady and Henson. MSU beat UM--I plunked down a rather large sum (for me) of, well, my enire life savings of $186.42 against Sparty the next week and VOILA! I had enough for yet another weekend bender.

Traditionally, Sparty has been a safe bet against in Big Games except for the year before last when they somehow came back from a 24-0 deficit against OSU to make it close at the end, 24-17. No weekend bender for me after that game.

I really try to stay away from betting on UM--agree with others that biases are too hard to overcome. And this year they are way too big a question mark to even think about, conversely, as opposed to other years, in the early games.

The good bettors, the ones who can either make some decent money, or at least the ones who brag about how well they did on Monday morning (without telling you their picks beforehand, of course) probably stick with numbers like over/unders, and the NFL. They also, like the OP did, take a look at who teams play the week before, where the game will be played, and who comes after. But I have always believed, again like previously mentioned, that the college game offers few chances in terms of games that really stand out as potential money makers.

I have done VERY good over the last 2 seasons .. i pick 2 teams i really like after about week 3 and role with them.

2 years ago was Missouri .. and last season was Texas Tech and Cinci ...

I am really feeling us and Oregon State this year ... but i will skip Oregon State on the week they play USC.