Michigan Arrogance

So, MVictors has a good post about conference realignment and The Game: http://mvictors.com/?p=7960#idc-container

Craig Ross talks about the divisional title conditions as well. My 2 cents (AKA, everyone else is NUTs b/c the following is the most logical avenue of reasoning):

1) A simple question: Why is Michigan-Ohio St the greatest rivalry in sports? No really, think about specific reasons.....

OK, now is it really b/c it's played on Nov 22nd? Or in November? Or the end of the year? Can a date on the calendar define the importance of this game? Not really. The reason the Game is so big is simply b/c when the teams play, the BIG TEN TITLE always seems to be on the line. This is the crux of the rest of this post: Overwhelmingly often, the M-OSU winner definitively determined the BIG TEN CHAMPION. That is what made The Game, well.... THE GAME. Nothing more, nothing less. Not the weather or the date on calendar.

Based on the above, if both M and OSU were in the same division, THEY WOULD NEVER DEFINITIVELY PLAY FOR THE B10 TITLE. They would only play for the division. Hence, the game loses it's significance. The Game went from 'determining the B10 Champion' to 'determining the division winner.' By definition, this would be less important.

I therefore submit that, if you truly want to protect the importance of The Game, you MUST support M and OSU being placed in different divisions. Therefore, unlike the alternative, the opportunity to play for the B10 Title will still be available thus maintaining the sustainability of the importance of The Game. It will sustain it's own importance if it deserves to: if M and OSU are good enough to meet in the B10 title game on a regular basis. If they aren't good enough to do this, nothing can sustain The Game's importance.

Obvious point: We must play every year to avoid the Neb-OU situation of the recent past. Hence, the protected rivalry game.

Obvious point: playing a 2nd time in the Title game WOULD BE AWESOME!!!

Not-so-obvious point: Would it not benefit (from an on the field competitive viewpoint) both OSU and M to move The Game a week or two earlier to avoid having to play the 2 biggest games of the year in consecutive weeks? In addition, this may reduce the number of times when the divisions have already been determined prior to the last week of the season (thus diminishing the stake of The Game some years).

Finally, the MVictors post linked at the top discusses the inherent disadvantage M and OSU would have simply by virtue of having to play each other EVERY year in the cross divisional protected game. Craig Ross suggests a complicated point system to mitigate this disadvantage. I submit a simpler strategy for determining the divisional champions:

-- intra-divisional record determines the division champion.
-- overall B10 record is the 1st tiebreaker.
-- head to head in the 2nd tie breaker

moving head to head to the 1st tie breaker may be fine, but then makes overall record moot and essentially makes the cross divisional games worthless.

The End...... ?

There has been a crap-ton of commentary about the scheduling of UConn. This Diary attempts to address the issues most people aren't grasping regarding Michigan's future schedule.


For those thinking we need a (currently) elite team (eg, UF, OU, USC etc.) b/c of the new stadium reno and we're the 'leaders&best':

On Oct. 1, 1927, Michigan played Ohio Wesleyan in the first game at Michigan Stadium. The game was a success as Michigan started the scoring on a 28-yard pass from Louis Gilbert to tight end Kip Taylor and prevailed easily, 33-0. The new stadium was dedicated three weeks later against Ohio State on Oct. 22, 1927.

in 2010, I imagine the dedication will be against MSU. A UConn level opponent is not out of character for an opening game.


For those thinking that we need to schedule like we did in the 80s and 90s:

I don't know what else to tell you besides, welcome to 2009. PSU is a member of the B10. The BCS exists. We have ND as our opponent every year. The AD budget is about $90M per year. UCONN is a D1A team and in fact has shared a BEast title and gone to bowl games. They have been D1A since 2000 and a BEast football member since 2004. All these facts describe the current climate of college football: teams are scheduling weaker. For money reasons, EVERY D1A team wants to have as many home games as possible. So, even if M wanted to schedule a decent team, they would require a return trip, *IF* that other team doesn't already have a good OOC opponent and would want to play M in addition to any other big game they scheduled for year X.

Summary:

• b/c of money issues, EVERY BCS conf. team is demanding home games. Whether or not you think of UConn as a BCS team, based on the definition of "is," it is.

• b/c of the BCS MNC format, teams who schedule 2-3-4 BCS opponents in the OOC are jeopardizing their chances at playing in the BCS MNC game. The notable exceptions reside in the Pac10 where they only play 3 OOC games in most cases. This is commendable, and I'd love to explore this further in the comments. Note, however, that most of the Pac10 teams look for mostly low-mid level BCS OOC opponents. Just. like. UConn.

This is the year Bill Martin is the AD of M: 2009. not 1999, 1989 or 1979.

For those thinking that the schedule is easy in 2010:

We play ND, PSU and OSU on the road in 2010. @ND is the 2nd game of the season, IIRC. UConn is a solid BCS team. Not great, but not terrible. They have been a better team than Vandy, Wazzu, Washington (!), Iowa State, Duke, North Carolina... I'll let others make a bigger list.

For those complaining that the HOME schedule is crappy in 2010:

I don't hear you bitching about the home schedule in odd numbered years when you get ND, PSU and OSU all at home. There are 2 sides to the coin. The AD is under no obligation to give you a better home schedule in even years. If you think you they should charge you less for season tickets in even years, then volunteer to pay MORE in odd years.

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This all isn't to say that I want a weak schedule. I'd love to play CU, ND, BC, FSU and Miami (YTM) like back in the day. But, it's 2009. Things have changed in CFB (e.g., UConn is as good if not better than CU) and it's not Bill Martins' fault for any of this. People just need to recognize the reality of the situation.

If so inclined, see A Big10 Bowl Analysis for added context.

BOWL
Actual Match-up
Result
**********************

Rose Bowl
Pac Ten #1 vs Big Ten #1
USC crooshes PSU

======================
HOLIDAY ^
Pac-10 No. 2 OREGON vs. Big 12 No. 4 OKSt
Oregon crooshes Okie St.

======================
SUN*
Pac-10 No. 3 OreSt vs. Big East Pitt
OreSt beats Pitt 3-0 in 9 innings.

======================
EMERALD
Pac-10 No. 4 CAL vs. ACC No. 7 Miami (YTM)
Cal beats Miami (YTM)

======================
VEGAS**
Pac-10 No. 5 ZONA vs. Mountain West No. 2 (but finished 3rd?) BYU
Zona beats BYU

**********************
**********************

*Sun Bowl Selected the #2 team in the Big East, Pitt:
http://www.sunbowl.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=157&Ite...

If the Gator Bowl selects a Big 12 Conference school, the Brut Sun Bowl has the second pick from the Big East Conference.

** MWC Champ Utah received a BCS bid and it appears as if the Sun Bowl selected the 3rd place team in lieu of TCU:

http://themwc.cstv.com/sports/m-footbl/mwc-bowls.html

Unless an MWC team qualifies for a BCS bowl game, the Pioneer Las Vegas Bowl has the first selection of MWC teams, followed by the San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettita Bowl with the second selection. The Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl and New Mexico Bowls have the third and fourth selections, respectively, but in no particular order.

^ 2008 Big 12 bowls, in order: BCS, BCS, Cotton, Holiday, Gator, Alamo, Insight, etc.

http://www.big12sports.com/ViewContent.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=10410&CONTENT_ID=1103

Again this season, the Big 12 has eight bowl slots guaranteed. The Conference is partnered with nine bowls. However the arrangement with the Gator Bowl is for it to select a Big 12 team twice over a four-year period. In the two years in which the Gator does not select a Big 12 team, the Sun Bowl will.

Following is the selection order:
BCS [ x2, -ed.]
Cotton
Holiday

======================

So, bullets:

• USC is better than PSU. Not shocking, but obviously a great win for the Pac10.

• The 2nd best team in the Pac10 is better than the 4th place team in the B12. Not shocking.

• In a good win for the Pac10, their 3rd place team beats the Big East runner up. Of course, this is the Big East and, as such, should be considered a mid-major football conference.

• The 4th place Pac10 representative beats the 7th place ACC team. Again, not shocking.

• Finally, the 3rd best team in a mid-major conference is beaten by the 5th best Pac10 team. At this point, I'd like to ask the Pac10 if they want a medal for this amazing accomplishment.

The rub:
The Pac10 bowl affiliations are a joke. They always have been for as long as I can remember. In years where the Pac10 only has one BCS representative (USC), the effects of this become magnified because 2-3 of their match-ups turn out to be against the n+1th best team (see the Holiday Bowl where the Big12 sent their 4th best team due to OU and Tex going to the BCS, and the Vegas Bowl where their champ, Utah, unexpectedly received a BCS berth (andand the unexplained selection of 3rd place BYU over 2nd place TCU)). The simple fact is, the Pac10 plays down in their bowl match-ups. Go back to look for the Pac10 record in bowl games. They are almost always 5-1 or 4-2 or 5-0. But look at who they placed in those games.

In contrast, the Big10 has always 'played up' in their bowl affiliations. Of course, when the B10 sends 2 teams to the BCS (as happens most years) they send the n+1th best team. This effect has been mitigated since the addition of a 5th BCS game, because more conferences get the 'sent the n+1th best team' -effect. Thus the relatively even bowl match-ups for the Big10 in the earlier diary entry.

This doesn't say that the Big10 is the best conference, of course. What is does say is that, based on bowl game performance, the Pac10 is not too great and the Big10 is not too far off from the SEC r the Pac10. Not to mention the unquantifiable effects traveling has on B10 teams with which the SEC and Pac10 generally do not have to deal. And that the Pac10 only had 5 bowl eligible teams. The reputation of the Pac10 is always over inflated for 2 reasons: USC and their bowl record.

Look, USC is great. They are the only team that recruits as well as I used to in NCAA0X for Xbox. They probably have more talent than any 2 other teams in the nation, combined. But the Pac10's strength should not be a reason for USC to get 1st place votes. The Pac10 certainly isn't a stronger conference than the Big12 or the SEC. Or perhaps even the ACC who sent an NCAA record 10 teams to bowls.

BOWL
Date
Intended Match-up
Actual Match-up
Result
**********************

Rose Bowl
Jan. 1
Big Ten #1 vs Pac Ten #1
Big Ten #1 vs Pac Ten #1
PSU USC

======================
Fiesta Bowl
Jan. 5
BCS vs. Big 12 #1
Big Ten #2 vs. Big 12 #2^
OSU Tex

======================
Capital One Bowl
Jan. 1
Big Ten No. 2 vs. SEC No. 2
Big Ten #3 vs. SEC # 3
MSU solid loss to UGa

======================
Outback Bowl
Jan. 1
Big Ten No. 3 vs. SEC 3/4
Big Ten #4 vs. SEC # 5*
Iowa kills USC (NTUSC)

======================
Alamo Bowl
Dec. 29
Big Ten #4/5 vs. Big 12 #4
Big Ten #5 vs. Big 12 #6^
NW OT loss to Mizzou

======================
Champs Sports Bowl
Dec. 27
Big Ten #4/5 vs ACC #4
Big Ten #6 vs ACC #4**
Wisc demolished by FSU

======================
Insight Bowl
Dec. 31
Big Ten #6 vs. Big 12 #6
Big Ten #7 vs. Big 12 #7^
Minn demolished by KU

**********************
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* Looks like the Outback received 5th pick from the SEC this year: BCS (UF), BCS (Bama), CapOne (UGa), Cotton (OleMiss), Outback (USC (NTUSC)). http://secsports.com/index.php?s=&change_well_id=2&url_article_id=44

The Outback, Chick-fil-A and AT&T Cotton Bowls will work with the conference office to determine picks 3-5. The Cotton Bowl has the first preference of teams from the Western Division and the Outback Bowl has first preference of teams from the Eastern Division. The Cotton or Outback Bowl can select teams outside of its divisional preference, but must not select them before the opposite bowl selects from its divisional preference. The Chick-fil-A Bowl has the selection of preference following the Cotton and Outback Bowls.

** Champs received the 4th pick from the ACC (one rep in the BCS for the ACC).

^ 2008 Big 12 bowls, in order: BCS, BCS, Cotton, Holiday, Gator, Alamo, Insight, etc.
http://www.big12sports.com/ViewContent.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=10410&CONTENT_ID=1103

Again this season, the Big 12 has eight bowl slots guaranteed. The Conference is partnered with nine bowls. However the arrangement with the Gator Bowl is for it to select a Big 12 team twice over a four-year period. In the two years in which the Gator does not select a Big 12 team, the Sun Bowl will.

Following is the selection order:
BCS [ x2, -ed.]
Cotton
Holiday
Gator (when it selects a Big 12 team) [it did: Neb –ed.]
Alamo
Sun (when the Gator does not take a Big 12 team)
Insight

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So, the Big10 has some even match-ups this year. The top 3 games and the Insight Bowl are 1v1, 2v2, 3v3, 7v7, respectively. Bullets:

• We were overmatched in the Champs Sports Bowl having the 6th place team (Wisc) play the ACC #4, leading to a bad loss in which no one was shocked.

• The NW game favored the B10 (tho, not according to talent on the field) and a close loss resulted. Minn got creamed by KU in what was another even match-up (but again, not according to talent on the field). It should be pretty clear that the B12 is a stronger conference this year and the bowl match-ups confirm this, if only in small sample size. OSU-Tex pending, of course.

• The SEC match-ups are turning out fine for the B10. Iowa moiderized the Cocks in a game that only slightly favored the B10 according to match-ups. MSU is hanging tough with a pre-season #1 UGa team in a dead even conference match-up, but will most likely need an onside kick to have a chance to win. Looks like the B10 ended up breaking even in bowl games w/ the grey coats this year.

• No doubt the remaining BCS games will break the B10's back should PSU and OSU lose. Two wins will be necessary if the perception of the B10 is to stay out of the toilet.

So it seems the QB & OL will be the biggest weakness of the team this year. In addition, it seems that Usain Bolt is fast (topical!) and Charlie Weis is a super genius. Ok, I’ll stop there. Anyway, lack of depth, talent, experience and fit to the system are all contributing to the low expectations of these position groups this year. Now, I’d love to talk about the OL. It’s the biggest part of the offense and thus probably more crucial to the success of the team than even the QB. However, I’m going to ignore the OL basically for 2 reasons: 1) I don’t enjoy feeling like this little guy, and 2) I don’t think there’s anything that can be done to mitigate the situation. But what about the QB issue? When you have minimal talent and experience at the QB position, can one reduce the impact of the QB on an offense?

I want to find out and hopefully there will be some insightful comments* that can add to the discussion. I don’t have a ton of time to research the topic, so my research outline consisted of:

IF (Google == helpful) THEN
write something
ELSE
write nothing
END IF

Now, Google wasn’t that helpful, but I did come across one article from several years ago about the 1999 Bucaneers. The key quote for me was the following:

“The Bucs like to minimize the position to the point that their quarterback has no more impact than a receiver does for most teams. On most plays, he's a bystander.”

This may be overstating the situation a bit, but I can not image RR saying to the staff at a meeting, “Goll-ly fellers, I know we have some perrrty speedy RBs and some dang good WRs, but we autta have Nick Sheridan be the playmaker fur dis here team.” It’s logical to assume that the staff would want to mitigate what seems to be the weakest part of the team, isn’t it? So what did the ’99 Bucs do?

Short passes to the RBs:

“A dozen of his passes were thrown at running backs.”

Run a heck of a lot more than they pass:

“On first down, the Bucs have rum 61 percent of the lime [sic].”

Not a lot of down field passing:

“A whopping 66 percent of their pass attempts this season have been for 10 yards or fewer, and only 12 percent have been for more than 20 yards.”

This seems to reinforce the idea that the offense will not be what we have become accustomed to under LC. Decisions will be easy ones for the QB. Passes will be short and designed to allow the RBs and WRs to make plays. First and second downs will be run heavy to make sure the QB isn’t pit into 3rd & ten situations.

Now, some of this may sound similar to what Michigan did with young QBs and that’s because it is. But recall, the offense and young QBs LC had are not the same RR has. I don’t expect short crossing patters that take 8 seconds to develop, nor do I expect 5 yard out patters that require a howitzer to complete. More bubble screens that are easy for the QB to read. Of course, the spread-option is an easy read. The bottom line? Expect a ton of carries for the RBs and the fewest passing attempts by a Michigan QB since Elvis Grbac gave us The Catch.

*insightful comments are defined as the opposite of this: "The O-line is no reason to freak out. They will gel."

Maybe a little off topic, but what the heck:

So I made the annual trek to Blimpies on Wednesday. But I have to preface that story with a couple from antiquity (late 90s). Back in college a friend and I go to Blimpy. As you probably know, the food's a bit greasy so we both grab a pretty tall stack of napkins. We order the food, etc. and when we get up to the register (the owner is working) he says to us, "too many napkins, you get two apiece." He takes the napkins off our trays and reissues us two apiece. Needless to say, we were flabbergasted. Since then, customers aren't allowed to grab their own napkins... they are dispensed by the staff (two apiece).

A couple years later, another friend & I partake in the yearly artery assassination. Again, the owner is working the register. We're up at the register about to pay. Now, I don't like ketchup and my friend comments that he always runs out b/c they only give you one little ounce in those tiny paper cups. So I say, "Heck, I'll get ketchup and just give it to my friend here." So the owner comes back with, "No way, if he wants another ketchup, he can finish the first one, show me the empty cup, and then he can have another ketchup." Again, we're floored but don't say anything for fear of being blacklisted.

Of course, these stories are just two of the many that build the reputation of the place. So back to the present. Wednesday another friend and I go. The owner isn't working & I don't recognize anyone behind the counter. Now, I don't know if this is due to the owner being AWOL or if the place is going down hill, or what.... but we're in line and there's this guy ordering for like 3 other people who aren't in line. This is pretty unremarkable in most food joints and it turns out that the 'other people' were his kids, but at Blimpie's? No way would that have stood 10 years ago. On top of that, they guy never grabbed a lunch tray at the start of the line! Again, in the old days, he'd be singled out and ridiculed by the staff. Today? They give him a tray with a smile. What's happened to the Blimpy Burger we used to know and lover?