Michigan and the Football Four ... and hope.
Michigan's miserable 2014 season depressingly coincided with the advent of the four-team College Football Playoff. Before the events of the last week, we fans probably felt like the possibility of the Wolverines reaching that playoff were a long way off. However, the hiring of Coach Harbaugh certainly gives us renewed hope.
Even then, the Big 10 East is highly competitive and it may take some time for that opportunity to come to fruition. In Harbaugh we trust to return Michigan to prominence, like water finding its level again. So if when he's successful in doing that, what does that mean in terms of getting playoff-bound? I found a nice "hypothetical" study on this web site...
http://www.postandcourier.com/article/20140702/PC20/140709831
...that explores what the "Final Four" would have been if the CFB would have been in place since the beginning of the "poll" era in 1936. It seems Michigan would have held their own in the category of "final four appearances." UM would have 15, compared to 20 for Ohio State and 16 for Notre Dame. MSU would have been in 8, including 2013. And these wouldn't have been just 1940's-era or Bo-era appearances from a bygone era. M would have been participants in '86 with Harbaugh at QB, 1989, 1991, 1997 (obviously), 2003, and (again, obviously) 2006.
It goes without saying, but during Bo and Woody's 10 Year War where the winner of The Game consistently went to the Rose Bowl, one or sometimes both teams were virtually ALWAYS in the final four. In 1974 and 2006 it would have been interesting to test the "two teams from the same conference" selection criteria as both teams remained in the top 4 after The Game. It's easy to envision this happening with Harbaugh and Meyer going full-blast in the next decade, with the victor going to the semifinals.
As a comparison, Oklahoma would have been in 27 playoffs, and Alabama 23. Miami (YTM) would have had the longest consecutive streak of 8 years in a row, from 1985-1992.
My point here is that Coach Harbaugh will help Michigan excellence to "find its level" again, and a return to that level will provide UM with the opportunity to play on the biggest stage "as often as anyone" -- This is looking like an average of 3-4 CFP's every 10 years for UM which isn't a bad minimum expectation to shoot for. We have history -- and Harbaugh -- on our side.
Below are the total years for our rivals if you don't want to sift through the entire chart, with asterisks for actual championships won.
Michigan (15)
1940, 1943, 1947, 1948*, 1964, 1971, 1974, 1976, 1977, 1986, 1989, 1991, 1997*, 2003, 2006
Ohio State (20)
1942*, 1944, 1954*, 1957, 1961, 1968*, 1970, 1972, 1973, 1974, 1975, 1979, 1995, 1996, 1998, 2002*, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2014
Notre Dame (16)
1941, 1943*, 1946*, 1947*, 1948, 1949*, 1952, 1953, 1954, 1964, 1966*, 1973*, 1988*, 1989, 1993, 2012
Michigan State (8)
1951, 1952*, 1953, 1955, 1957, 1965, 1966, 2013 ... and apologies for that web page's featured image.
And "guh" that our three rivals would have been featured in 2012, 2013, and 2014. But that's all in the past now, it's 2015 ... Harbaugh ... Go Blue.
January 1st, 2015 at 10:58 PM ^
Me thinks. 2017, we should have a good chance. For sure by 2019.
January 2nd, 2015 at 1:03 AM ^
January 2nd, 2015 at 3:36 AM ^
hell yeah. big ten championships.
January 2nd, 2015 at 6:13 PM ^
When JH will probably win B1G, just not sure we will win NC. 2018 will be tough with MSU and OSU on the road. Probably 2019 for the National Championship.
2015:8-4
2016: 10-2
2017: 11-1
2018: 10-2
2019: 12-0
Not too shabby!January 2nd, 2015 at 9:25 PM ^
January 3rd, 2015 at 8:49 AM ^
I think that you do need to shed that mentality. I think you also need to shed the dream that Michigan will win every year against both MSU and OSU - and winning both of those games is likely a prerequisite to getting to the NC.
January 3rd, 2015 at 12:31 PM ^
January 1st, 2015 at 11:20 PM ^
A year to get established, then off we go.
January 2nd, 2015 at 4:26 PM ^
Unfortunately, due to the new schedule, we will have to play MSU and OSU on the road in even years. It is going to be exceptionally difficult to win both of those games, especially the latter, and make it into the playoff. I think we'll have a good 2015 (9-10 wins), better 2016 (10-11 wins), and then make the playoff in 2017.
January 2nd, 2015 at 8:43 AM ^
January 2nd, 2015 at 11:41 AM ^
It's remarkable how there's some sort of honeymoon period there, and now you're seeing longer-term guys like Saban and Miles taper off.
January 2nd, 2015 at 11:51 AM ^
In 2001 Larry Coker won the NC in his first year, although that Miami team was loaded.
In 2000, Stoops won it in his second year at Oklahoma.
January 2nd, 2015 at 12:34 PM ^
January 2nd, 2015 at 10:16 AM ^
Is our bowl game futility. If we were to get to the playoff, our past record doesn't bode well for actually competing for the NC.
January 2nd, 2015 at 11:45 AM ^
I left that little bit of insight out because I posted it in the midst of an already depressing series of events (MSU win then OSU win).
You would look at that "WOW FIFTEEN Final Four appearances!!!" and then wonder ... uh ... but where the heck were we in the actual real-world mix for titles all those years? The fact is that our bowl losses were the biggest factor and also those frustrating ties in '86 and '74(?) also contributed to keeping us out of reach of the top spot in the polls.
One more interesting note that's mentioned on that site: Notre Dame jumped all the way from five to #1 in 1977, I believe.
January 2nd, 2015 at 2:35 PM ^
Both of the Orange Bowl participants only loss was to Texas, the No. team at the time...and ND won that Cotton Bowl by 28 points.
But yeah, under that scenario, ND might have been left out of the Final Four...then again, Arkansas may have been left out of that Final Four too (although Michigan was ranked 4th going into that Bowl season and would have been in).
January 2nd, 2015 at 11:49 AM ^
and his big game experience can mitigate this (along with other coaches on staff).
It did occur to me that MSU (and of course OSU, though nothing new for them) has really gotten a lot of big game experience these last 2 years that is a big advantage over our players for at least the next 1-2 years. They've won all of these: BIG CG with undefeated OSU, Rose Bowl with top 10 Stanford and Cotton Bowl with top 10 Baylor.
January 2nd, 2015 at 12:41 PM ^
For years the Rose Bowl was, effectively, an away game far off in a foreign land. And the Pac 12 generally had more progressive offensive schemes.
The main problem we ran into was not playing during the regular season against teams that relied on passing.
Our passing attack on offense was often quite good. We didn't have the opportunity to develop our pass defense throughout the year.
With Harbaugh coaching and the playoff format now, those two disadvantages are negated. We'll be on a fairly even playing field.
January 2nd, 2015 at 1:35 PM ^
That's a stupid excuse. Look at what Woody accomplished at OSU. He would have faced the same hardships Bo did except he has 5 national titles to boot. Face it, Bo choked many times in big games.
January 2nd, 2015 at 2:09 PM ^
wasn't anything to write home about. During the '10 year war' while Bo was going 0fer in bowl games OSU was a whopping 2-5 with three of those losses costing OSU national titles and in 2 games OSU was heavily favored. His 1975 OSU team was undefeated and ranked #1 heading into the Rose Bowl to play a UCLA team that was 8-2-1 and had already lost 41-20 to OSU earlier in the year (in the LA Coliseum). In 1970 OSU was undefeated and ranked #2 heading into the Rose Bowl to play an 8-3 Stanford team. OSU lost (although OSU claims a NC for 1970 neither the AP or Coaches poll had them ranked #1).
January 4th, 2015 at 1:21 PM ^
January 2nd, 2015 at 12:21 PM ^
sometimes getting to the top is more than just crunching data and bowing to probability statistics. Last nights OSU upset win over Alabama underscores this. A team from the supposedly weakest major 5 conference playing with a 3rd string QB, a team that lost to a weak VT team and barely escaped beating PSU, faced the vaunted Crimson Tide. The Tide-winner of 3 out of the past 5 NCs. No one looking at any analytical facts/data would have predicted a buckeye win. Not only did they win but they outplayed bama statistically and beat them up in the process. What does this mean for Michigan? Hey guys were aren't that far off talent-wise from the buckeyes or bama. Meyer used a positive momentum building approach. He didnt try the 2 point conversion early, why? Because it would kill the momentum. He waited until late in the game with his guys knowing the could hang with bama, building momentum and confidence, before going for the 2 pointer. Thats what you can't see with metrics, the positive effect of a winning coach and thats also why within 2 seasons Michigan will be contending for the BgTn title and will be in the NC conversation. Go Harbo-Blue!!
January 2nd, 2015 at 1:29 PM ^
MSU's Dantonio now has the same amount of Bowl Wins as our beloved Bo and has done it in a much harder B1G and national landscape. I think I'm too young to understand the Bo worship of this fanbase. 5-12 record in bowls and 0 national titles isn't impressive to say the least given the aura of Bo around Ann Arbor.
January 2nd, 2015 at 2:31 PM ^
would have gone to a major Bowl
January 2nd, 2015 at 3:18 PM ^
Obviously too young to understand a lot of things.
January 2nd, 2015 at 4:59 PM ^
Bo's record is not impressive given the deification he gets in Ann Arbor. Sorry, not sorry.
January 2nd, 2015 at 10:03 PM ^
January 2nd, 2015 at 2:30 PM ^
the Jerrydome Bowl?
Doesn't sound right...the NC game should be in Pasadena.
I don't like this format. Te empty seats at the Orange and Fiesta Bowls would seem to agree.
8-team format with 4 major bowls (Rose, Orange, Sugar, Cotton or Fiesta) as a quarter finals.
January 2nd, 2015 at 3:34 PM ^
And where to hold the semis and finals, if we're trying to avoid the empty seats you mentioned?
I think this format is fantastic. MSU and OSU success aside, I thought yesterday was a great kick-off for this new process. My OP implies that it would have been fun if this was in place all along, especially when you look at the clusters that often ensued each year with no on-the-field resolution.
January 6th, 2015 at 1:48 PM ^
Maybe it's just me, but it was really jarring to see the Orange Bowl (and the OB halftime show) on New Year's Eve as opposed to New Year's Day.
And while I like this format, every one of those former bowls would mean that a team gets a chance to make the playoffs...even if they had 2 or 3 or even 4 losses in the season (provided they won their CCG)
January 6th, 2015 at 6:29 PM ^
.... I think you need to utilize the home stadiums of the higher seeds until you're down to a final four. It brings in fans that don't have to travel to fill the stadium, and it makes seeding more important by giving home-field advantage to the higher seed.
Even the current four-team format is a hardship to fans of the semifinal winners. How many fans can pay to travel to the Rose Bowl and then on about one week's notice arrange travel to Texas? (In an 8-team neutral-site format, the final two teams' fans would be looking at three sets of travel arrangements, the latter two of them made on short notice.)
January 2nd, 2015 at 8:49 PM ^
John Blake when he coached OU in the mid to late 90s. He was a great recruiter but could not win games. Stoops came in and started winning with Blake's players. Won a national championship with Blake's players. I wonder if Harbaough could do the same with Hoke's players?
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