MichFan1997

[Ed-M: diary bbbbbump]

Back in August, MGoUser "Undefeated dream season of 1992" did this fabulous diary on predicting a team's FEI rankings using previous seasons rankings and combining it with regression to the mean, returning starters (and bonus to an offense for bring a quarterback back), coaching change, and Rivals star rankings over the previous three recruiting cycles. This model predicted that Michigan's offense would settle in at #16, down from #2, and the defense would move up from #108 to #71.

Here we are after Week 7. The first set of FEI rankings specific to offense and defense have been released. Our Wolverines are ranked #15 on offense and surprising #17 on defense. The offense is right where UDSO92 predicted it would be (well, one spot higher). However, how did Michigan so dramatically improve on defense when it was only supposed to jump up to around #71, especially considering that the model has generally found that coordinator changes generally have a negative affect on the defense? Let's look at what UDSO92 himself had to say at the time:

One year is not definitive (except in the case of GERG, natch); in fact, a team that woefully underperformed the previous year could look great just by rebounding the following year.

What exactly were the expectations of the Michigan defense in 2010? The 2010 defense was predicted by the model to finish 46th. GEEEEEEEEERG indeed. Futher, over the period of 3 years, Michigan's defense underperformed by a whooping 37 positions of FEI. Now while this might not be an empirically correct thing to do, let's assume for a moment that we can adjust Michigan's 2011 FEI expectation. Let's say that perhaps Michigan was an exception to the general rule that changing coordinators hurts your defense in the immediate season, just because of how horrendously poorly the defense appeared to have been coached. Using this idea, Michigan's predicted finish of 71st can be improved to 34th (the difference of the 37 positions) by removing a product of the underperformance (GEEEEEEEEERG). Considering the previous seasons projection, the fact that Michigan has a good recruiting profile, along with 9 returning starters, this seems like a reasonable enough projection.

The rest of the increase up to 17th, while it may be an early season abberation, is quite possibly due to the fact that our new Greg, Greg Mattison, is not only a good coordinator, but an excellent one and is not a stuffed animal waving lunatic. Now, had someone tried predicting this at the beginning of the year, they certainly would have been called crazy. However, I figured it would be nice to throw out that little bit of overperformance as some actual evidence that not only was the previous coaching staff bad at coaching defense, but that the current one is good (based on the fact that they are overperforming their expectation).

That being said, the offense is exactly where it was figured to be, so despite our disappointment over the MSU game, let's remember that it was the first real road test (Northwestern was not a hostile crowd), and against FEI's #5 rated defense.

Previous opponents

Let's take a look at the 7 opponents Michigan has faced thus far to see how they rank compared to our teams performance against them.

And now for what we'll be up against the next five weeks after we return from a bye.

If you made it this far, thanks for reading. Also, mods, if you want, please move this to diaries if you deem it worthy. I would put it there myself, but I typed the whole thing out on the Board and can't copy for some reason. So I'm just gonna post it here. Move as you deem worthy/not-worthy.

GO BLUE!

So I decided I wanted to do an in-depth analysis of in-state recruiting to see if I could prove or disprove what people are saying about Dantonio dominating. For the sake of argument, I’m using Rivals rankings and considering 2008 a full year for Rich Rod because he did have to “re-recruit” kids. I’m only going to look at the Top 10 each year. NOTE: I wrote this intro before I started adding up the totals to try and avoid biases. I’m going 10 points for #1, 9 points for #2, ect.

2008 Michigan: 10 for Cissoko, 9 for O’neill (even though he’s gone), 4 for Martin, 3 for Demens.

2008 Michigan State: 6 for Smith, 2 for Hoover, 1 for Burrell

2009 Michigan: 10 for Campbell, 5 for Gordon

2009 Michigan State: 9 for Baker, 8 for Norman, 7 for Maxwell, 4 for Caper, 3 for Sims, 2 for Treadwell, 1 for Gainer

This is 41 points for Michigan, 43 for Michigan State.

I think you can make a good argument as well that a lot of those 43 points Michigan State accumulated was due to kids Michigan did not recruit due to the new system. For instance, reports are that while RR offered Larry Caper, he did not recruit him very hard. The same goes for Dion Sims. As a disclaimer, this is not to say Dantonio isn’t getting some kids RR wanted. I’m sure Rich Rod wanted Baker and Norman, for example.

Now onto 2010 where Michigan is coming off a 3-9 season that is supposed to affect recruiting greatly.

1. William Ghoston, Michigan State: This one was gift wrapped for Dantonio. I would have loved to have him though.

2. Joe Boisture, Michigan State: This is not a kid who fits in Michigan’s system.

3. Dior Mathis, uncommitted: This is a kid we have a shot with, but at a position where it’s not urgent that we land him.

4. Max Bullough, Michigan State: Legacy recruit. This is 2 of the top 3 in-state recruits that are State commits that were gift-wrapped for MD.

5. Devin Gardner, Michigan: According to reports, I’d be surprised if he weren’t at least #2 in-state during the re-ranks.

Those are the only kids I see in the Rivals250. I don’t know what the order of in-state kids would be after that. What I believe will happen here is that we will land Mathis or he will go out-of-state. Gardner will be at least #2 in-state. Two of MSU’s recruits were locks. Yet, Michigan could still end up with 2 of the top 5 with Boisture being the swing guy (a pro style guy who we weren’t recruiting)

Needless to say, I’m not nearly as worried about in-state recruiting as others are. Like many have said over and over, Michigan can merely go out-of-state to get the rest of what we need. And ask yourself this. Did you ever think to yourself “that win over MSU would have been better if a Pennsylvania kid hadn’t thrown a touchdown to an Ohio kid, but rather it was two Michigan kids?” I doubt it.

Happy 4th everyone!!

P.S. for the record, I do think Dantonio is a good coach and that MSU is going to have a solid program...until he leaves for a better job like Saban did ;)

So reading another post on here got me to thinking about my interactions with other fans. Do I go out of my way to rip on people? Is this acceptable? Are subtle jabs like shirts that you wear acceptable? Everyone has interactions like these on the Internet. I don't find any real fault with making fun of people online, though it is juvenile and I tend to avoid taking part in it. For instance, I would never venture to an OSU blog to rip on them.

Overall, I'm looking for a few things. What are your thoughts on these issues. Also, the thing I'm most interested in are interesting stories of interactions you've had with other fan bases, online or in person. Here are just a few of mine:

-I mentioned in another post that my roommate is a Notre Dame fan. He brought an OSU fan over to try and set me off. Me and this OSU fan ended up spending the evening ripping on Notre Dame, much to my roommates dismay.

-Once at a Tigers game, me and my cousin were discussing LeBron James and how we believed he was a choke artist. This guy near us, overhearing our conversation, fires back with "Oh yeah, the Indians are in first place!" (Boy, what happened to that?!!)

-Once, an MSU fan was making fun of me in my own dorm about Michigan's 0-2 start. I fired back that he woudln't talk once Michigan once again defeated MSU. He laughed. Michigan won. He avoided my room for the remainder of the year.

-My favorite one. I went to a Tigers vs White Sox game in 2006 where we beat the hated Sox 2-1. This White Sox fan decides to talk trash afterwards anyways. "We're still the 2005 champs baby," he says. "Welcome to 2006 you little bitch," fires back a Tigers fan.

-If we win the 2009 Stanley Cup tomorrow night, I will take my subtle jab. I'm going to a Pirates-Royals game in the near future and am planning on wearing my "Beat Pittsburgh...again" shirt with Wings logo that I just bought.

Anyways, I'll hang up and listen!

I want to repost this, just to see if I can generate discussion. If anybody has any thoughts about the wrestling program, I'd love to find people to talk with about it!!:

So last night, after Michigan's big 31-6 blow out of Penn State, me and another poster were having an IM conversation about Michigan Wrestling in the future. It got me to thinking about how awesome this team could be in 2 years. Here's a breakdown of a potential lineup for next year. Note the lack of seniors. This is why I think 2 years from now could be SPECIAL:

125: Sean Boyle (Blair Academy, NJ): Boyle is currently ranked 4th in the nation at 119 pounds in all classes. Blair is the premier wrestling program in American and is the same school that produced Michigan's current 141 pounder, Kellen Russell. With Michael Watts graduating and no immediate high profile pickups waiting in the wings, Boyle could start as a true freshman.

133: Eric Grajales (Brandon, FL): Grajales is also currently a highly rated HS recruit. He's #1 in the nation across all classes at 135 pounds. He will almost certainly start as a true freshman. Other options here include moving him up to 149 and keeping Zac Stevens in at 133 for another year, or moving him to 141 and bumping Russell to 149. For now, let's just say he goes 133.

141: Kellen Russell (Blair Academy, NJ): Russell is currently a sophomore and one of Michigan's most talented wrestlers. He finished with a 32-7 record and was Big Ten Champion at 141 pounds as a true freshman last year. He's currently ranked 5th in the country according to InterMat.com. He most certainly will start again, either here, or as previously stated, at 149 pounds.

149: Assuming my prediction is correct and Grajales and Russell cover 133/141, there are two options here. Mark Beaudry (Pueblo South, CO) is the current starter. However, Mark Weber (Goodrich, MI) was a 4x MHSAA champion and was 2nd in the nation at 135 as a senior last year. Weber is currently in his true freshman year and is not using his redshirt. He could use his redshirt next year, or become the starter.

157: Aaron Hynes (Flint Kearsley, MI): Before becoming a starter this year, Hynes had a 45-13 record in open tournaments. The sophomore is beginning to adjust nicely to the starting lineup. The 2x state champion should start the next two years beyond this one.

165: Justin Zeerip (Hesperia, MI): Just a redshirt freshman, Zeerip has struggled for much of this season. However, in his redshirt year, Zeerip went 23-6 in opens last season. He was a 4x undefeated state champ (260-0) in HS and took 3rd in the nation as a senior. He was a high profile recruit and should have a bright future. Perhaps a glimpse of that future was seen just last night when he defeated a Penn State wrestler who took 3rd at the NCAA's last year.

174: With Steve Luke graduating and nobody listed as a 174 pounder, Michigan might have to scratch to fill this spot next year. If anybody has an idea for 174, I'd love to hear it.

184: Hunter Collins (Gilroy, CA): Collins was one of the top recruits in last years class. He's currently taking his redshirt, but likely has a bright future as a 4 year starter. This year, he's lost in the numbers game amongst the veteran upper weights. He was a 4x California all-state wrestler. (California HS's compete in only ONE division, so this is a big deal). He was a Reno Champ in high school, and took 2nd in the nation at 171 pounds as a senior, losing to 3x Michigan champ and current CMU wrestler Ben Bennett in the finals.

197: Anthony Biondo (Chippewa Valley, MI): Currently ranked 13th in the nation at 184 pounds, Biondo will be entering his junior year next year. He was a 3x Michigan champ and an all-american as a senior. He could also remain at 184 with Collins coming up next year. However, this might be the better option with Biondo, the older wrestler, taking the higher weight. Keep in mind, Biondo was Michgian's starter here before switching weights with current senior Ty Todd this year.

285: Eddie Phillips (Lakewood, MI): Phillips is a sophomore and is a very athletic heavy. He was Michigan's 189 champ as a senior at Lakewood. He struggles at times, but has become a serviceable starter. Maybe he breaks out as a junior next year? He'll be pushed by Romeo's Chad Bleske for this spot.

Incoming recruits: Currently, I know of 4 recruits coming in next year. Dan Boyle and Eric Grajales were both mentioned as possible starters in the light weights. Michigan is also bring in Brandon Zeerip. Zeerip is the younger brother of current starter Justin. The younger Zeerip is the 10th ranked 152 pound wrestler in the country. Michigan also brings in a more unheralded national level recruit in Dundee's Pete Rendina. It is unclear at this time what type of future Rendina would have at Michigan, but he is a top senior in Michigan this year. His pull could also help with current HS sophomore Joey Rendina. Joey may be a top 5 in-state recruit as a senior.

Any more thoughts, I'd love to hear them.

So last night, after Michigan's big 31-6 blow out of Penn State, me and another poster were having an IM conversation about Michigan Wrestling in the future. It got me to thinking about how awesome this team could be in 2 years. Here's a breakdown of a potential lineup for next year. Note the lack of seniors. This is why I think 2 years from now could be SPECIAL:

125: Sean Boyle (Blair Academy, NJ): Boyle is currently ranked 4th in the nation at 119 pounds in all classes. Blair is the premier wrestling program in American and is the same school that produced Michigan's current 141 pounder, Kellen Russell. With Michael Watts graduating and no immediate high profile pickups waiting in the wings, Boyle could start as a true freshman.

133: Eric Grajales (Brandon, FL): Grajales is also currently a highly rated HS recruit. He's #1 in the nation across all classes at 135 pounds. He will almost certainly start as a true freshman. Other options here include moving him up to 149 and keeping Zac Stevens in at 133 for another year, or moving him to 141 and bumping Russell to 149. For now, let's just say he goes 133.

141: Kellen Russell (Blair Academy, NJ): Russell is currently a sophomore and one of Michigan's most talented wrestlers. He finished with a 32-7 record and was Big Ten Champion at 141 pounds as a true freshman last year. He's currently ranked 5th in the country according to InterMat.com. He most certainly will start again, either here, or as previously stated, at 149 pounds.

149: Assuming my prediction is correct and Grajales and Russell cover 133/141, there are two options here. Mark Beaudry (Pueblo South, CO) is the current starter. However, Mark Weber (Goodrich, MI) was a 4x MHSAA champion and was 2nd in the nation at 135 as a senior last year. Weber is currently in his true freshman year and is not using his redshirt. He could use his redshirt next year, or become the starter.

157: Aaron Hynes (Flint Kearsley, MI): Before becoming a starter this year, Hynes had a 45-13 record in open tournaments. The sophomore is beginning to adjust nicely to the starting lineup. The 2x state champion should start the next two years beyond this one.

165: Justin Zeerip (Hesperia, MI): Just a redshirt freshman, Zeerip has struggled for much of this season. However, in his redshirt year, Zeerip went 23-6 in opens last season. He was a 4x undefeated state champ (260-0) in HS and took 3rd in the nation as a senior. He was a high profile recruit and should have a bright future. Perhaps a glimpse of that future was seen just last night when he defeated a Penn State wrestler who took 3rd at the NCAA's last year.

174: With Steve Luke graduating and nobody listed as a 174 pounder, Michigan might have to scratch to fill this spot next year. If anybody has an idea for 174, I'd love to hear it.

184: Hunter Collins (Gilroy, CA): Collins was one of the top recruits in last years class. He's currently taking his redshirt, but likely has a bright future as a 4 year starter. This year, he's lost in the numbers game amongst the veteran upper weights. He was a 4x California all-state wrestler. (California HS's compete in only ONE division, so this is a big deal). He was a Reno Champ in high school, and took 2nd in the nation at 171 pounds as a senior, losing to 3x Michigan champ and current CMU wrestler Ben Bennett in the finals.

197: Anthony Biondo (Chippewa Valley, MI): Currently ranked 13th in the nation at 184 pounds, Biondo will be entering his junior year next year. He was a 3x Michigan champ and an all-american as a senior. He could also remain at 184 with Collins coming up next year. However, this might be the better option with Biondo, the older wrestler, taking the higher weight. Keep in mind, Biondo was Michgian's starter here before switching weights with current senior Ty Todd this year.

285: Eddie Phillips (Lakewood, MI): Phillips is a sophomore and is a very athletic heavy. He was Michigan's 189 champ as a senior at Lakewood. He struggles at times, but has become a serviceable starter. Maybe he breaks out as a junior next year? He'll be pushed by Romeo's Chad Bleske for this spot.

Incoming recruits: Currently, I know of 4 recruits coming in next year. Dan Boyle and Eric Grajales were both mentioned as possible starters in the light weights. Michigan is also bring in Brandon Zeerip. Zeerip is the younger brother of current starter Justin. The younger Zeerip is the 10th ranked 152 pound wrestler in the country. Michigan also brings in a more unheralded national level recruit in Dundee's Pete Rendina. It is unclear at this time what type of future Rendina would have at Michigan, but he is a top senior in Michigan this year. His pull could also help with current HS sophomore Joey Rendina. Joey may be a top 5 in-state recruit as a senior.

Any more thoughts, I'd love to hear them.

Note: all ratings used will be via Rivals

Quarterback: With an unproven Steven Threet and walk-on Nick Sheridan as the only returning QB's with experience, this position was critical this year. Originally, Michigan took care of this with both Kevin Newsome (now at Penn State) and Shav'd Beaver (Tulsa???). However, the finished product is the accurate CA QB Tate Forcier (#5 dual threat), and FL ATH Denard Robinson (#14 ATH). Both QB's appear to have a high upside and can throw. Mission accomplished here. GRADE: A

Running Back: There was a moderate need here with Grady, Minor, and Brown all entering their last year. McGuffie and Horn were also victims of attrition. Ohio's Fitz Toussaint (#8 all-purpose back) was a solid pick-up and produced monster senior year. Michigan also picked up a couple of smaller, speedy type guys in MI RB Teric Jones and FL RB Vince Smith, the latter of whom will really need to hit the weight room hard. Decent class here. GRADE: B

Wide Receiver: There was a need for at least one slot guy in this class and that need was taken care of with FL ATH Jeremy Gallon (#11 ATH). Gallon will need to put on some weight and there are questions as to his eligibility, but he should be fine. Outside WR was also a pressing need with JR Hemmingway and Toney Clemons being unproven. Greg Matthews is more suited to be a #2 WR and is also a senior. MN WR Bryce McNeal seemed to fit the bill, but he defected to Clemson. DeWayne Peace also did not stick. However, on Signing Day, Michigan picked up big recruit in PA's Je'ron Stokes. Stokes defected from Tennessee after months of being committed there. MI WR Cam Gordon (#36 WR) provides depth or maybe another big body at LB. Solid class here. GRADE: B+

Offensive Line: Despite picking up six commits in 2008, it was still important to gain at least 2 or 3 more kids to help take care of depth issues. Michigan did this with AZ OT Taylor Lewan (#16 OT) and IL OT Michael Schofield (#18 OT). The day before signing day, Michigan also snatched up SC OG Quinton Washington (#8 OG) from under South Carolina's noses. A very nice class here. GRADE: A-

Defensive End: This position was, along with QB, the main priority in the 2009 class and Michigan didn't disappoint. AZ DE Craig Roh (#7 WDE) brings in some mad pass rushing skills/moves. NJ DE Anthony LaLota (#11 SDE) is another very athletic kid, but will need some fine-tuning as he is very raw. One more DE would have been nice (I'm thinking about you, Sam Montgomery), but with Brandon Graham staying for a senior year, two should be alright. GRADE: A

Defensive Tackle: MI DT William Campbell scared Michigan fans everywhere after de-committing, then removing Michigan from his short list. All this, after over a year of being committed, led to him...committing again at the Army All-American game. Campbell is a high level recruit (#5 DT) and is a five star, blue chipper. However, this class suffers from the loss of DeQuinta Jones and Pearlie Graves. A second DT could really have been used, as this is possibly the least deep position on the entire team now. The grade suffers some because of that. GRADE: C+ (THIS IS NOT AN INDICTMENT OF CAMPBELL, WHO I FEEL WILL BE AN AMAZING ASSET).

Line Backers: This position struggled during 2009. However, Obi Ezeh and Jonas Mouton were only sophomores. Here's hoping they get better. That being said, only half of last years four LB recruits are even still around. More LB's were needed. Jordan Barnes de-committed, perhaps because Rich Rodriguez softened on him. OH LB Isaiah Bell (#26 OLB) is a nice pick-up. FL LB Brandin Hawthorne (#35 OLB) is undersized and is a major project with a lot of athletic upside. FL S Mike Jones (#25 S) is also likely to be a LB in college. Mediocre group, but potential is there. GRADE: C+

Safeties: With Angry Michigan Safety Hating God looming around every corner, safeties are always in need. FL S Vlad Emilien (#14 S) is a good pick-up, but did suffer a major knee injury in high school. MI ATH Thomas Gordon provides depth here. However, he was a HS QB who will need to learn to play defense. He is a big player and could have some upside. Not a terrible class here, especially with OH DB Justin Turner expecting to play a little bit of safety as well. GRADE: B

Corner Backs: Speaking of Turner, for the third year in a row, Michigan was able to haul in an elite corner prospect. Turner (#3 S) could start off as the slot corner and may see time at both corner and safety, i.e. Marlin Jackson. Michigan also brings in FL CB Adrian Witty. Witty is the lowest rated prospect in this class and is recovering from a knee injury. At the very least, he provides depth, special teams player, a practice body, and brings another QB with him in Robinson. Turner makes this class. GRADE: A-

Kicker: With KC Lopata on his way out and Bryan Wright hurt, Anthony Fera committed to Michigan to fill the void at kicker. However, he left for Penn State. FL K Brendan Gibbons (#8 K) brings a big leg and fills the class need here. GRADE: B (I'd feel weird giving any higher grade to kickers here)

OVERALL: B+/A- I'm not sure which grade to give here. The class filled needs at QB and DE. More skill and speed was found. However, it could have used more LB and DT. All in all, I'll take this class.

WHAT IT MEANS FOR 2010: Obviously, DT and LB are the top priorities for next year. WR is taken care of, barring defections, as Ricardo Miller and Jeremy Jackson have pledged to Michigan. Here are the players M has offered so far:

QB: Devin Gardner, Christian Green, Robert Bolden. Keep an eye out for an offer to Je'ron Stokes' brother Malik as well.

RB: Corey Brown, Austin White, Brennan Clay (Tate's teammate)

WR: Chris Dunkley, Dejoshua Johnson (plus 2 committed WRs)

TE: CJ Fiedorowicz

OL: Seantral Henderson, Robert Crisp, Matt James

DT: Jay Guy

DE: Darryl Baldwin, William Gholston

LB: Austin Gray

S: Marvin Robinson

CB: Cullen Christian, Lo Wood, Dior Mathis (Cass Tech)

Here is a great link if you're interested in further exploring the 2010 class: http://www.umvarsityblue.com/2010/index.php

If you made it this far, thanks for reading. GO BLUE!!