McBean 2002 Class
The McBean Definitions discussion was lively.
Only minor changes resulted from the debate:
- I removed the reference to a “five year starter.” Amazing that so many different sets of eyes (except cali4uofm) could miss that, although it was referenced elsewhere.
- I clarified the McBean four-star rating a little bit. The 2002 class has two guys who I initially rated as four stars – Mark Bihl and Rueben Riley – that I have dropped to three stars given that they were undrafted.
Three other issues were discussed:
- brad voiced a concern that if all starters at Michigan get three stars, there is no differentiation between a weak starter and a solid three-star guy like Chris Graham, for example. This is a reasonable observation, because I had Mark Bihl and Rueben Riley rated as four-star starters but backed them down to three (as I considered them borderline four-stars) because they were undrafted. So are both Mark Bihl and Darnell Hood three-star players? That needs to be further debated in this thread.
- There was some debate about punters and kickers, but I think the exception to a punter or kicker as a lower rated player can be handled in the rare event a Space Emperor decides to play ball on our planet.
- The dominant concern was using the NFL to assign career star ratings. SanDiegoWolverine voices this concern:
I don't think the NFL is that relevant in the sense that how our players perform in the NFL shouldn't change our perception of their value/production when they were at Michigan. I'd rather have Rod recruit players that dominate while they are at Michigan and underperform at the NFL than vice versa.
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UMFootballCrazy counters:
The draft is a national comparison, a national measure of the athletes.
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And summarizes, I think correctly:
I agree with BlueBulls that ONLY the draft can inform a McBean rating, and only as a tie-breaker. Steve Breaston is a classic example. Four-star or five? He seems to be on the cusp – look at all the Michigan records and his current value to Arizona – but in the end, he is a four and the draft – 5th round – gives us a valuable assessment tool of his potential (developed at Michigan) at the time his career in college ended. So the NFL draft stays as a tie-breaker, and the final McBean Definitions will be:"Elite" = 5*
or
"Significant Impact" = 4*
or
"Solid" = 3*
I think that you will find that, barring a few exceptions, most of those that get that fifth star will be first-rounders or high second-rounders; the second group will get drafted; and the third group will make up the bulk of the rest of the starters.
Let's begin with the 2002 class. There are some interesting borderline cases in this class. Given the currently assigned career ratings, this class underperformed significantly.
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Compare this to the Rivals average of 3.52, and you still see the perceived under-performance of this class, which is now highlighted even more. Just for fun, I took the RMS as well (I'll say that McCoy and Berishaj are 2 stars for this exercise.) I found Rivals RMS = 3.59 and McBean RMS = 3.15. This doesn't change much, but you see the effect of having more highly rated guys when you make Bihl and Harris 4 stars instead of a 3 and a 5. The average is unchanged while the RMS = 3.13. I'm not sure that these differences are big enough to warrant wholesale changes to your formula, but it is still an interesting question to consider (and not that difficult to implement).
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Quinton McCoy took a year at a prep school, re-signed with Michigan in 2003, and then flunked out of school. Lineman Tom Berishaj and tight end Kevin Murphy left the program for undisclosed reasons, but neither had made much of an impact on the field.I can't find either of these guys in a 5 minute googlestalking, so I think that it is safe to say that they really didn't find the field wherever they went to. 2* is pretty safe. Unrated isn't out of the question (is that 1*?) [Edit: It turns out that the nutty site referenced above spends some time talking about the 2006 game. Kind of a fun read. Especially when you scan through some of the homerism.]
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