MBB: The hidden loss of Spike

Submitted by AC1997 on

Last night I sat down to carefully watch the basketball game on my DVR - the safest way to protect yourself from a potential gut-punch loss in the making.  As the lead grew to 19 I had been sucked back in and was watching the game with a smile on my face.  Then that lead evaporated and the bubble bursting loss nearly happened.  Fortunately the team pulled it out and we have continued our trend of being better than all the bad teams but far from a good team.  

What continued to frustrate me, however, is why?  Why isn't this team better?  Why is our defense so bad?  Why do we go through long droughts on offense?  

There have been plenty of armchair analysis posts here and elsewhere this season that have pointed out some of the more obvious contributions:

  • Our best player, senior, captain, and POY candidate has missed 11 games.
  • Our center position has vastly under-performed even the simple task of "catch good pass, complete layup" while also struggling to defend and rebound.  
  • The PF position was finally supposed to have a true stretch four option this year and yet both Chatman and Wilson are now glued to the bench for performance reasons.
  • We are still feeling the recruiting aftershocks of early-departures and being unable to close on some top prospects.  

Ace did a good job today of illustrating one of the ways in which this team misses Caris so much - getting to the rim.  Without question he would help in a variety of ways, especially on offense.  But let's face it - that doesn't explain our defensive woes and it doesn't entirely explain Coach Beilein's inability to overcome those long stretches of bad play on the court.  

What we've sort of forgotten about is the loss of Spike Albrecht to this team.  It is easy to see why his skills as a shooter, ball screen player, and ball handler are missed, there are some other ways that I think may be hiding under the surface.  

  1. Guard Fatigue

    Right now there are only two ball handlers on this team - Walton & Rahk.  As a result, they have to play a ton of minutes.  Irvin has come along as a ball handler and they can use him sparingly at the 2, but let's not pretend that's a great idea right now.  More often you see Dakich come in for a few minutes.....which is not ideal.  



    Rahk has already played more minutes this season than all of last year.  He's averaging over 32mpg since Caris got hurt.  Meanwhile, Walton is averaging a stunning 35.6mpg in that time frame.  For reference, that's more minutes per game than Burke in 2013 or Stauskas in 2014.  



    Perhaps Walton and Rahk are struggling on D somewhat because they're both tired and also very afraid of getting fouls since they have no back-up.  Even though Spike is a poor defender aside from opportunistic steals, he would allow those guys more rest and the willingness to be physical knowing they can sit for a few minutes with foul trouble.  I think our foul aversion, especially by the guards, is a major reason we can't keep people out of the lane.  Yet can you blame Walton and Rahk for not being more grabby or physical when they know a foul likely replaces them with Dakich?

     
  2. Lineup Flexibility

    Before this season the talk was focused on how this was the deepest team Beilein had ever fielded.  There wouldn't be minutes for everyone.  We should redshirt Rahk and Wagner to give them some extra eligibility.  Now where are we?  



    Last night Beilein played essentially a 7 man roster with only Doyle and Dawkins playing meaningful minutes off the bench.  Even in the run to the final four we were playing more bench guys than that despite a far superior starting lineup.  



    You're seeing Coach Beilein look more frustrated and animated on the sideline.  The reason?  What options does he have!  When Walton has the careless turnover that sparked the Gopher team or the offense stalls for a long stretch....who can he turn to?  When a team starts pressing full court, where are his extra ball handlers?  Spike would have helped solve a lot of those problems (as would Levert obviously).  

     
  3. Leadership

    Who is the leader of this team?  When you picture the player who is going to take charge in the huddle, want the ball in his hand, get in an opponent's face, or dive for a loose ball.....who do you picture?  I picture Spike.  Last year it was his team and it would have been this year too I think.  He'll probably be a coach in the near future.  Yet he sits in a shirt and tie on the bench instead of annoying the opposing players and fans with his inexplicable and gritty talent.  

I've heard a lot of people suggest that Beilein has hit his ceiling and is unable to recruit 5-star players for us to catch the elite teams.  Perhaps that's true.  But I never had that expectation of him.  I'm old enough to have sat in the front row during the end of the Fisher era and followed the program through a decade of embarrasment.  I don't want to try and keep up with Kentucky and all that comes with those elite recruits.  My expectations for Beilein were to turn us into a program like Wisconsin.  We would be in the tournament every year, we'd run a good offense, we would develop talent as well as anyone, and every couple of years we'd unearth or develop an NBA draft pick that would allow us to contend for a conference title or Final Four.  

What is the biggest ingredient in Wisconsin's success over the years?  Experience.  They always have a bunch of juniors and seniors on the floor.  Right now ours are sitting on the bench in street clothes while the few experienced guys we have left are playing 35 minutes per game.  

We miss Spike.......(and of course we could use Caris back at any time too)

Comments

turd ferguson

February 11th, 2016 at 8:55 PM ^

Spike also excels at creating shots for teammates, which is really valuable on a team that struggles to create its own shots.  I think you're right that we've been underestimating the impact of that injury.

UMgradMSUdad

February 12th, 2016 at 12:34 AM ^

I'm not sure we would have won any more games with Spike playing, but you never know.  He definitely has an ability to be a spark offensively that could have countered some of those big runs opposing teams have made.  He definitely would help Michigan to better be able to close out games.  And it is an excellent point about the leadership a senior like Spike could provide.

1989 UM GRAD

February 12th, 2016 at 7:46 AM ^

To me this is totally on point. Yes it sounds like excuse-making, but the team has been without two of its most impactful players in each of the past few years. Spike and Caris would've been good for at least one or two more victories in the conference schedule thus far. Their ability to penetrate and distribute the ball would open up more shots for Duncan. It's easy to see how even a 15-point loss becomes a victory in this instance.

redjugador24

February 12th, 2016 at 9:21 AM ^

Totally agree about the leadership and hustle plays missing from this year's squad.  Walton and Rahk both made huge hustle plays at the end of the Minnesota game, but overall there isn't a guy you can count on to make those plays.  Spike was that guy for sure.  Look back to McGary, Burke with his pocket-picking, Novak & Morgan drawing charges and scrapping for loose balls.  That guy just isn't on the court this year.

Steves_Wolverines

February 12th, 2016 at 11:14 AM ^

I would like to add on to this, focusing on our "C" position.

Coming into this year, I think we all expected to see Ricky Doyle improve off of last seasons break out year. Unfortunately, we saw the opposite. 

Mark Donnal has shown flashes of the kind of player we've heard through the practice hype during his RS year. He's done a fantastic job in his first season getting regular minutes, and I think we are all excited to see him next year.

My biggest concern is the depth at this position, and I can't help but think of what Max "I Have Huge Calves" Bielfeldt could have brought to this team. 

Check out his numbers at IU this season:

He's playing more minutes, taking more shots, shooting at a higher % and grabbing more rebounds this season at IU. Granted IU has one of the best offenses in the country, Michigan runs a similar style and would probably have comparable team stats if we had a healthy Caris. 

So imagine what Bielfeldt could have done for this team, compared to what we are currently bringing off the bench. Sorry Doyle and DJ, but Bielfeldt can space the floor, battle inside with the bigs of the B1G-10, and is smart on the defensive side.

If this team had a healthy Spike, Caris, and Max, I think we would have won (or at least kept the games close) against some of the RPI Top 50 teams we've played. 

 

AC1997

February 12th, 2016 at 12:39 PM ^

Interesting thought about Max, who would have been the third senior on this team.  He has had a surprisingly productive year for Indiana.  Purely based on his results and those of our bigs not named Donnal.....seems like we miss him greatly.  This is a tough one to consider as you would have traded four years of Wagner for one year of Max.  

Perhaps the bigger concern is that we continue to strike out on big-men.  Donnal is showing promise, but Doyle has a long way to go even to mimic the worst of Jordan Morgan.  Wilson should be a PF but thinks he's a SF.  Chatman is struggling greatly.  Wagner is too young to judge and realistically should have redshirted if Doyle, Donnal, Wilson, and Chatman had progressed.  Even scarier is to think about the 5 guys on the roster over 6'8" right now and the  two being added next year.....will any of them be able to be above average for us?  That is a lot of scholarships to give to the performance we've seen for two straight years.

 

AC1997

February 12th, 2016 at 12:42 PM ^

I wanted to respond to some of the thoughts in the comments.  While my conclusions and theories suggest that we greatly miss Spike (and Caris), it is hard to translate that to win/loss results.  Michigan has had a weird year in that they've won every game against teams ranked below them but lost every game (but Maryland/Texas) against better teams.  Yet all of those losses were slaughters.  We aren't MSU with a few close losses or OT games that would have been swung with a few possessions with Spike.

Perhaps my bigger concern is that we seem to be regressing somewhat on defense and experiencing long stretches of bad offense at critical times (even in games we win or lose by a lot).  With the minutes that Walton/Rahk are being forced to play, this trend may get worse.  

L'Carpetron Do…

February 13th, 2016 at 9:18 PM ^

Spike offered a lot that was overlooked by most M fans.  He was great off the bench as an offensive option.  While not on the level of Burke or Walton he still could create and everyone knows he could get hot from outside.

He would be absolutely crucial for this team right now.  Even at less than 100% he could still have 'stop-the-bleeding' effect when things start to get out of control.  I don't think that huge Indiana run happens if Spike can get on the floor.

Also - like you said - this team needs a leader.  Spike brought a fire that was severely lacking in the Indiana and State games last week.

Glad Caris is back - let's steal some down the stretch!

1989 UM GRAD

March 2nd, 2016 at 6:52 PM ^

I couldn't agree more. Everybody who has been pissing and morning the last two years has to realize that it's difficult to win when you are without your best players and seniors who are the gritty heart and soul of the team.