Maize_in_spartyland

If you ever read articles from Phil Steele, he has a theory that a team that has forced double digit turnovers in excess of the times they turned the ball over will either equal their win total the following year, or will decrease their wins. As a corollary, a team who has turned the ball over double digit times more than they forced turnovers, will at least equal their win total the following year, or will increase their wins.

If you are like me, you are at least skeptical of this theory. So I went ahead and ran the numbers, going back to the 2006-2007 season. We looked at the team’s win total in 2006, their turnovers in 2006, and their win total in 2007. If the team had net double-digit turnovers, either to the positive or the negative, they came into the population study.  Then a comparison was made between whether the team should have improved or at least stayed the same. Note that when looking at win totals for each year, I am only including regular season win totals, so no bowl games or conference championships are included.

If you want to see all of the charts since the 2006-2007 season, visit my website. For sake of brevity, I’m only going to include the 2010-2011 chart here. I’ll cover the 2011-2012 chart in a few weeks.

Since the 2006-2007 season up through the 2010-2011 season (five seasons), I reviewed the turnover differential. Here are the results:

58/76 with double-digit turnovers to the positive either won less games or stayed the same (76.3%).

55/64 with double-digit turnovers to the negative either won more games or stayed the same (85.9%).

113/140 total followed trend (80.7%)

In case you were wondering the stats from the 2010-2011 season:

16/18 with double-digit turnovers to the positive either won less games or stayed the same (88.9%).

10/12 with double-digit turnovers to the negative either won more games or stayed the same (83.3%).

26/30 total followed trend (86.7%)

Below are the strength of schedules for all Big Ten teams from 2011, as well as Michigan’s opponents in 2012 (note that Massachusetts isn’t listed, more about that later).

If you want to look at the rankings for opponent win percentage for all 120 FBS teams for 2011, check out my website.

Teams who had tough schedules in 2011, and easier schedules in 2012, should, theoretically, improve their win total. By contrast, teams who had easier schedules in 2011, and tougher schedules in 2012, should decrease their win total. Of course, it doesn’t always work out that way.

The opponent win percentage is simple based on the combined wins and losses of a team’s opponents (includes bowl games and conference championship games, as well). Note that the rankings do not include games played against FCS opponents.

Once every team in the country has a finalized schedule for 2012 (I’m looking at you, Big 12 and Big East), I’ll throw together the 2012 Strength of Schedule, based on the win totals from 2011.

A few notes (on teams other than Michigan and their non-conference opponents) (Note that my projections will include postseason play, too):

Illinois –Illinois’s home conference games are all winnable – Penn State, Indiana, Minnesota, and Purdue. The road games are brutal, though: Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, finishing up with an easier game at Northwestern. Illinois’s non-conference schedule is a bit tougher than the 2011 version – Western Michigan, at Arizona State, Charleston Southern, and Louisiana Tech. Early projection: Illinois decreases their overall win total in 2012, from 7 in 2011.

Indiana –Hands down the worst team in the Big Ten; schedule was among the toughest due to games against Michigan State and Wisconsin. The Hoosiers have a relatively forgiving non-conference schedule, playing Indiana State, at Massachusetts, Ball State, and at Navy. Early projection: Indiana increases their overall win total in 2012, from 1 in 2011.

Iowa –The Hawkeyes travel to Ann Arbor and East Lansing in 2012, and also make trips to Evanston and Bloomington. The home games, outside of Nebraska, are easily winnable (Minnesota, Penn State and Purdue). Iowa plays Northern Illinois (at Chicago), Iowa State, Northern Iowa, and Central Michigan in 2012. Early projection: Iowa increases their overall win total in 2012, from 7 in 2011.

Michigan State –Illinois’s road Big Ten schedule is tough, but the Spartans will have it just as bad at home, as on the road. Michigan State plays Ohio, Iowa, Nebraska, and Northwestern at home, while traveling to Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. Michigan State’s non-conference schedule is tougher than the one from 2011 (which isn’t saying much, since 2011 was pretty easy) – Boise State, at Central Michigan, Notre Dame, and Eastern Michigan. Early projection: Michigan State decreases their overall win total in 2012, from 11 in 2011.

Minnesota –Partly a byproduct of how bad the Gophers were, also a byproduct of having played Michigan, Michigan State, and Wisconsin, all of who had at least ten wins. Minnesota’s non-conference schedule allows the Gophers to improve – at UNLV, New Hampshire, Western Michigan, and Syracuse. Early projection: Minnesota increases their overall win total in 2012, from 3 in 2011.

Nebraska –The Cornhuskers had a particularly challenging schedule in their first year in the Big Ten, having to visit tough environments in Michigan, Penn State, and Wisconsin. The Huskers will play Ohio, Michigan State, and Iowa on the road (as well as Northwestern). Nebraska has one non-conference game to schedule; they will play Southern Miss, at UCLA, and Arkansas State. Early projection: Nebraska increases their overall win total in 2012, from 9 in 2011.

Northwestern –Easiest schedule out of all the Big Ten teams. Having to replace QB Dan Persa will be tough, but at least QB Kain Colter has experience. The Wildcats will need that experience, as they travel to Michigan and Michigan State on back-to-back weeks; Northwestern also travels to Penn State and Minnesota on back-to-back weeks. The Wildcats host Indiana, Nebraska, Iowa, and Illinois. Northwestern’s non-conference schedule in 2012 won’t be easy, playing at Syracuse, Vanderbilt, Boston College, and South Dakota. Early projection: Northwestern decreases their overall win total in 2012, from 6 in 2011.

Ohio –Talk to a Buckeye fan and they will tell you it was one of the toughest years to stomach, between the NCAA investigations, Jim Tressel, and the losing record, Ohio is looking to forget the 2011 season. 2012 will likely be better, but the Buckeyes won’t be in the postseason. The Buckeyss have a soft non-conference schedule in 2012, playing Miami (OH), UCF, California, and UAB. Early projection: Ohio increases their overall win total in 2012, from 6 in 2011.

Penn State –Oh boy, where do I start here? Penn State’s non-conference schedule has been notoriously soft in recent years. Yes, they did play Alabama the past two seasons, but other than that, its been extremely forgiving. Penn State's schedule turned out to be the toughest because of playing Alabama, Houston, Nebraska, Wisconsin (three of which won double digit games). Next year it gets tougher with games against Navy and at Virginia. Penn State also plays Ohio University and Temple. Early projection: Penn State decreases their overall win total in 2012, from 9 in 2011.

Purdue –Purdue plays five of their first six games at home; an early start would put Purdue in great shape to improve on their 2011 record. Unfortunately for Purdue fans, they catch Michigan and Wisconsin on back-to-back weeks, but at least they are at home. Purdue also plays Penn State and Indiana at West Lafayette. Purdue will make trips to Columbus, Minneapolis, Iowa City, and Illinois. Purdue’s non-conference schedule in 2012, absent Notre Dame, is forgiving; the Boilermakers play Eastern Kentucky, at Notre Dame, Eastern Michigan, and Marshall. Note that Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio State are on back-to-back-to-back weeks; three straight losses could send Purdue into a tailspin.  Early projection: Purdue decreases their overall win total in 2012, from 7 in 2011.

Wisconsin –The Badgers have it relatively easy for their Big Ten road games in 2012. Wisconsin will travel to Indiana and Purdue, but they also play Nebraska and Penn State on the road. Wisconsin’s 2012 non-conference schedule looks like four wins – Northern Iowa, at Oregon State, Utah State, and UTEP. Early projection: Wisconsin matches their overall win total in 2012, from 11 in 2011.

With that said, what are the early thoughts on Michigan?

EDIT: Thanks to Harmon98 and bluebrains98 for pointing out a serious problem. Problem is corrected. For those who are asking, this is based on the 2011 season, with 2011 opponents.

bigmc6000 got me thinking, with this board post earlier, exactly how teams fare in the Big Ten in terms of bringing in money to the conference.

Michigan stacks up fairly well against the conference, not surprisingly, in contributing value to the Big Ten. (Sorted by average amount brought in by a school, per season):

(Individual bowl game amounts were compiled using figures provided by collegefootballpoll.com).

First, a couple notes . . .

• For the 2005-2006 bowl season, Ohio State's bowl payout was listed at $14-17 million. They defeated Notre Dame, so we will use the $17 million figure.
• For the 2005-2006 bowl season, Penn State's bowl payout was listed at $14-17 million. They defeated Florida State, so we will use the $17 million figure.
• For the 2006-2007 bowl season, Ohio State's bowl payout was listed at $14-17 million. They lost to Florida, so we will use the $14 million figure.
• For the 2009-2010 bowl season, Ohio State was the automatic bid; Iowa was an at large. As such, Iowa is listed as having $6 million, the proper amount for a second team from the same conference.
• For the 2010-2011 bowl season, Wisconsin was the automatic bid; Ohio State was an at large. As such, Ohio State is listed as having $6 million, the proper amount for a second team from the same conference.
• For the 2011-2012 bowl season, Wisconsin was the automatic bid; Michigan was an at large. As such, Michigan is listed as having $6 million, the proper amount for a second team from the same conference.

Note that Big Ten teams brought in the most money this season in recent memory (probably wouldn’t be the case if Nebraska wasn’t included). With that said, this year’s bowl season actually brought in, on average, less money per school, the lowest since the 2006-2007 year, excluding the 2009-2010 season.

Ohio, Wisconsin, and Michigan, not surprisingly, have brought in the most bowl money to the Big Ten, since the 1999-2000 season. Even if Michigan makes a BCS bowl game next year, they cannot surpass Ohio for the highest dollar amount brought in for a bowl game.

Nebraska has only been in the conference for one year, so I only included the bowl payout from this season.

Another thread somewhat addresses this point, but boy are Minnesota and Indiana dead wood. Combined, they have been to only ten bowl games in 13 seasons. Ohio, alone, has been to 12 and Michigan has been to 11.

Michigan State could have just as easily been grouped in with Minnesota and Indiana, if not for the hire of Dantonio. Say what you want about the guy, but he’s taken the Spartans to five straight bowl games.

Something to think about, next season Ohio is ineligible for a bowl game, due to NCAA sanctions. Penn State will likely take a step back, so may Wisconsin. Will teams like Iowa and Michigan State make up for the top teams not being in major bowls?

I'll likely be putting together stuff like this for the other conferences, which I'll post over at my website. Should be interesting to see how Michigan stacks up to other BCS conference teams.

EDIT: I re-ran the numbers using the $6 million figure for a multi-bid conference (that became the rule with the 2009-2010 season). Big Ten and SEC are getting $22.2 million per year for their first team. The remaining AQ conferences get $17.7 million each.

And, at last, we are at the end. Since Week One, August 30^th, I’ve been covering college football games. 18 weeks later, we arrive at the final set of college football games for the 2011-2012 season. What better way to end the season than to cover the remaining BCS bowl games, including the BCS National Championship?

For those of you keeping track, Big 12 teams are 6-1 (Missouri, Texas, Baylor, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma State won; Iowa State lost). Conference USA teams are 3-1 (Marshall, Southern Miss, and Houston won; Tulsa lost). MAC teams are 3-1 in bowl games (Temple, Ohio University, and Toledo won; Western Michigan lost). SEC teams are 4-2 (Mississippi State, Auburn, South Carolina, and Florida won; Vanderbilt and Georgia lost). Big East teams are 2-1 (Rutgers and Cincinnati won; Louisville lost). Independent teams are 1-1 (BYU won; Notre Dame lost). Sun Belt teams are 1-1 (Louisiana-Lafayette won, Florida International lost). Mountain West teams are 2-3 (TCU and Boise State won; Wyoming, San Diego State, and Air Force lost). Big Ten teams are 3-6 (Purdue, Illinois, and Michigan State won; Iowa, Northwestern, Penn State, Nebraska, Ohio State, and Wisconsin lost). ACC teams are 2-4 (North Carolina State and Florida State won; North Carolina, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, and Virginia lost). PAC-12 teams are 2-5 (Utah and Oregon won; Arizona State, California, Washington, UCLA, and Stanford lost). WAC teams are 0-3 (Utah State, Louisiana Tech, and Nevada).

During the regular season, the Upset Watch reviewed picks from the previous week, noted the bad picks, and pointed out a few games to give the underdog some credit in, even if it was only in Vegas. It also looked at one or two sure-fire favorites (two when Michigan wasn’t playing).

Because this is the bowl season (and our last hurrah for the 2011-2012 regular season), we’ll cover each of the bowl games, splitting them up by week.

Be sure to check out my website, Before Visiting the Sportsbook, throughout the week, for more content.

Recap:

Wins

Utah (8-5) +3.5 Georgia Tech (8-5). Result: Utah 30 Georgia Tech 27 [Props to Trebor and One Inch Woody for correctly predicting Utah would cover].

Illinois (7-6) -1.5 UCLA (6-8). Result: Illinois 20 UCLA 14 [Props to Trebor and One Inch Woody for correctly predicting Illinois would cover].

South Carolina (11-2) +1.0 Nebraska (9-4). Result: South Carolina 30 Nebraska 13 [Props to Lord Maker, Trebor, and One Inch Woody for correctly predicting South Carolina would cover].

Oregon (12-2) -5.5 Wisconsin (11-3). Result: Oregon 45 Wisconsin 38 [Props to Lord Maker for correctly predicting Oregon would cover].

Stanford (11-2) +4.0 Oklahoma State (12-1).Result: Oklahoma State 41 Stanford 38 [Props to Trebor for correctly predicting Stanford would cover].

Push

Northwestern (6-7) +11.0 Texas A&M (7-6). Result: Texas A&M 33 Northwestern 22.

Losses

Vanderbilt (6-7) -1.5 Cincinnati (10-3). Result: Cincinnati 31 Vanderbilt 24 [Props to Trebor and One Inch Woody for correctly predicting Cincinnati would cover].

Virginia (8-5) +3.0 Auburn (8-5). Result: Auburn 43 Virginia 24 [Props to One Inch Woody for correctly predicting Auburn would cover].

Penn State (9-4) +9.0 Houston (13-1). Result: Houston 30 Penn State 14 [Props to Lord Maker, Trebor, and BrewCityBlue for correctly predicting Houston would cover].

Georgia (10-4) -2.0 Michigan State (11-3). Result: Michigan State 33 Georgia 30 [Props to Trebor and One Inch Woody for correctly predicting Michigan State would cover].

Ohio (6-7) +2.0 Florida (7-6). Result: Florida 24 Ohio 17 [Props to BrewCityBlue for correctly predicting Florida would cover].

This Week

The final week of the college football season kicks off Tuesday night when (#13) Michigan meets (#11) Virginia Tech in the Sugar Bowl (8:30 PM EST/ESPN/ESPN3); this marks only the second meeting between the Big Ten and ACC in the BCS (2005-2006 season featured Penn State and Florida State in the Orange Bowl, with Penn State winning 26-23 in 3OT). On Wednesday night, (#15) Clemson faces off against (#23) West Virginia in the Orange Bowl (8:30 PM EST/ESPN/ESPN3). No games on Thursday night, so we’ll skip to Friday night, for the Cotton Bowl Classic, where (#8) Kansas State and (#6) Arkansas meet at Jerryworld (8:00 PM EST/FOX). Finally, next Monday the 2011-2012 NCAA Champion will be crowned, where conference rivals (#2) Alabama and (#1) LSU meet in New Orleans (8:30 PM EST/ESPN/ESPN 3D/ESPN3).

Upset Watch

Clemson (10-3) -3.0 West Virginia (9-3) (@ Miami Gardens, FL). The Mountaineers are 17^th in total offense (100^th rushing, 7^th passing); Clemson is 29^th (61^st rushing, 21^st passing). West Virginia is 27^th in total defense (51^st rushing, 32^nd passing); the Tigers are 59^th (80^th rushing, 34^th passing). Clemson leads the series 1-0, with a 27-7 victory over West Virginia in 1989 (Gator Bowl). Clemson is 16-17 all time in bowl games (1-4 SU in last 5; 1-4 ATS in last 5; 1-4 ATS as a favorite in last 5). West Virginia is 13-17 all time in bowl games (3-2 SU in last 5; 1-4 ATS in last 5; 1-0 ATS as an underdog in last 5). West Virginia Coach Dana Holgorsen is 9-3 (6-6 ATS, 2-1 ATS underdog); Clemson Coach Dabo Swinney is 29-18 (21-18 ATS, 14-12 ATS favorite). Clemson is 6-4 ATS as a favorite this year (8-5 overall ATS); West Virginia is 2-1 ATS as an underdog this year (6-6 overall ATS). West Virginia’s last bowl game was the 2010 Champ Sports Bowl, a 23-7 loss to North Carolina State; Clemson’s last bowl game was the 2010 Meineke Car Care Bowl, a 31-26 loss to USF. Take Clemson to cover the points.

Arkansas (10-2) -7.5 Kansas State (10-2) (@ Arlington, TX). The Wildcats are 96^th in total offense (29^th rushing, 109^th passing); Arkansas is 27^th (81^st rushing, 13^th passing). Kansas State is 74^th in total defense (39^th rushing, 104^th passing); the Razorbacks are 51^st (79^th rushing, 27^th passing). Kansas State leads the series 3-1, with a 16-7 victory over Arkansas in 1926, 3-0 in 1911, and 5-0 in 1910. Arkansas defeated Kansas State 28-7 in 1967. Arkansas is 12-23-3 all time in bowl games (2-3 SU in last 5; 1-4 ATS in last 5; 1-2 ATS as a favorite in last 5). Kansas State is 6-8 all time in bowl games (1-4 SU in last 5; 0-5 ATS in last 5; 0-1 ATS as an underdog in last 5). Kansas State Coach Bill Snyder is 59-40 (52-40 ATS, 22-10 ATS underdog) since 2001; Arkansas Coach Bobby Petrino is 74-26 (59-38-1 ATS, 41-22-1 ATS favorite) since 2001. Arkansas is 6-3 ATS as a favorite this year (7-5 overall ATS); Kansas State is 7-1 ATS as an underdog this year (9-3 overall ATS). Kansas State’s last bowl game was the 2010 Pinstripe Bowl, a 36-34 loss to Syracuse; Arkansas’s last bowl game was the 2010 Sugar Bowl, a 31-26 loss to Ohio. Take Arkansas to cover the points.

Southern Methodist (7-5) +7.0 Pittsburgh (6-6) (@ Birmingham, AL). The Mustangs are 53^rd in total offense (98^th rushing, 22^nd passing); Pittsburgh is 84^th (68^th rushing, 76^th passing). Southern Methodist is 37^th in total defense (31^st rushing, 60^th passing); the Panthers are 41^st (24^th rushing, 70^th passing). The series is tied at 2-2-1, with SMU defeating Pittsburgh 7-3 in 1983 (Cotton Bowl) and 33-14 in 1948. Pittsburgh defeated SMU 20-7 in 1942 and 34-7 in 1938. The teams tied 7-7 in 1940. SMU is 5-7-1 all time in bowl games (3-2 SU in last 5; 3-2 ATS in last 5; 3-0 ATS as an underdog in last 5). Pittsburgh is 12-15 all time in bowl games (2-3 SU in last 5; 2-3 ATS in last 5; 2-0 ATS as an favorite in last 5). Pittsburgh Coach Keith Patterson is 0-0 (0-0-0 ATS, 0-0-0 ATS favorite); SMU Coach June Jones is 87-56 (65-68-2 ATS, 29-26-1 ATS underdog) since 2001. SMU is 1-4 ATS as an underdog this year (5-7 overall ATS); Pittsburgh is 2-4 ATS as a favorite this year (7-5 overall ATS). Pittsburgh’s last bowl game was the 2010 Compass Bowl, in Birmingham, a 27-10 win over Kentucky; SMU’s last bowl game was the 2010 Armed Forces Bowl, a 16-14 loss to Army. Take SMU to cover the points, and win.

Arkansas State (10-2) -1.0 Northern Illinois (10-3) (@ Mobile, AL). The Red Wolves are 25^th in total offense (55^th rushing, 17^th passing); Northern Illinois is 10^th (9^th rushing, 59^th passing). Arkansas State is 20^th in total defense (15^th rushing, 54^th passing); the Huskies are 87^th (83^rd rushing, 75^th passing). Northern Illinois leads the series 6-1, with a 31-30 victory over Arkansas State in 1996, 38-16 in 1994, 23-7 in 1993, 31-0 in 1992, 22-21 in 1991, and 35-0 in 1990. Arkansas State defeated Northern Illinois 28-21 in 1995. Arkansas State is 0-1 all time in bowl games (1-0 ATS; 0-0 ATS as a favorite). Northern Illinois is 3-3 all time in bowl games (2-3 SU in last 5; 2-3 ATS in last 5; 1-3 ATS as an underdog in last 5). Northern Illinois Coach Dave Doeren is 10-3 (5-8 ATS, 1-1 ATS underdog); Arkansas State Coach David Gunn is 0-0 (0-0 ATS, 0-0 ATS favorite). Arkansas State is 8-2 ATS as a favorite this year (10-2 overall ATS); Northern Illinois is 1-1 ATS as an underdog this year (5-8 overall ATS). Arkansas State’s last bowl game was the 2005 New Orleans Bowl, a 31-19 loss to Southern Miss; Northern Illinois’s last bowl game was the 2010 Humanitarian Bowl, a 40-17 win over Fresno State. Take Arkansas State to cover the points.

Alabama (11-1) +1.0 LSU (13-0) (@ New Orleans, LA). The Crimson Tide are 30^th in total offense (15^th rushing, 72^nd passing); LSU is 75^th (17^th rushing, 105^th passing). Alabama is 1^st in total defense (1^st rushing, 1^st passing); the Tigers are 2^nd (3^rd rushing, 8^th passing). Alabama leads the series 45-25-5. In the five recent meetings, LSU leads 3-2, with a 9-6 victory over Alabama earlier this year, 24-21 in 2010, and 41-34 in 2007. Alabama defeated LSU 24-15 in 2009 and 27-21 in 2008. LSU is 22-19-1 all time in bowl games (4-1 SU in last 5; 4-1 ATS in last 5; 3-1 ATS as a favorite in last 5). Alabama is 33-22-3 all time in bowl games (3-2 SU in last 5; 3-2 ATS in last 5; 0-1 ATS as an underdog in last 5). Alabama Coach Nick Saban is 94-24 (66-46-2 ATS, 7-5-2 ATS underdog) since 2001; LSU Coach Les Miles is 103-38 (65-66-5 ATS, 39-39-2 ATS favorite). LSU is 8-3 ATS as a favorite this year (10-3 overall ATS); Alabama is 0-0 ATS as an underdog this year (8-4 overall ATS). Alabama’s last bowl game was the 2010 Capital One Bowl, a 49-7 win over Michigan State; LSU’s last bowl game was the 2010 Cotton Bowl, a 41-24 win over Texas A&M. Take Alabama to cover the points, and win.

Gameday Prediction

The Wolverines are 34^th in total offense (12^th rushing, 90^th passing); Virginia Tech is 38^th (31^st rushing, 66^th passing). Michigan is 18^th in total defense (35^th rushing, 16^th passing); the Hokies are 12^th (17^th rushing, 41^st passing). These teams have never met before. Michigan is 19-21 all time in bowl games (1-4 SU in last 5; 2-3 ATS in last 5; 0-1 ATS as a favorite in last 5). Virginia Tech is 9-15 all time in bowl games (2-3 SU in last 5; 2-3 ATS in last 5; 1-1 ATS as an underdog in last 5). Virginia Tech Coach Frank Beamer is 110-36 (78-61-2 ATS, 11-4-0 ATS underdog) since 2001; Michigan Coach Brady Hoke is 57-52 (58-43-3 ATS, 24-13 ATS favorite). Michigan is 6-3 ATS as a favorite this year (8-4 overall ATS); Virginia Tech is 0-0 ATS as an underdog this year (4-9 overall ATS). Michigan’s last bowl game was the 2010 Gator Bowl, a 52-14 loss to Mississippi State; Virginia Tech’s last bowl game was the 2010 Orange Bowl, a 40-12 loss to Stanford.

Michigan is 2-1 against teams fielding top 25 defenses, defeating Illinois and Ohio, but losing to Michigan State; the Wolverines are 3-0 against top 40 offenses (Northwestern, Notre Dame, and San Diego State). Virginia Tech’s two losses came at the hands of Clemson, allowing an average of 390 yards (222 passing yards – 56.9% of offense), while being outscored 61-13. The Hokies are 10-1 when they outgain their opponents on the ground (1-1 when outgained on the ground). Virginia Tech is led by QB Logan Thomas (2799 passing yards, 59.2% completion, and 29 total TDs), RB David Wilson (1627 rushing yards, 6.1/carry, and 9 rushing TDs), and WRs Danny Coale (787 receiving yards, 15.1/catch, and 3 receiving TDs) and Jarrett Boykin (731 receiving yards, 12.8/catch, and 5 receiving TDs). Virginia Tech is 2-1 when Wilson is held under 100 yards rushing, being outscored 65-60 (average of 22-20); the Hokies are 9-1 when Wilson meets or exceeds the 100-yard plateau, outscoring opponents 311-158 (average of 31-16). Take Michigan to cover the points.

Michigan 24 Virginia Tech 16

Who ya got?

So far only two Big Ten teams have played in bowl games; between now and the next Upset Watch, on Tuesday, January 3^rd, seven Big Ten teams will have played in bowl games, leaving only Michigan left to play.

For those of you keeping track, SEC teams are 1-0 (Mississippi State). Big 12 teams are 4-1 (Missouri, Texas, Baylor, and Oklahoma won; Iowa State lost). MAC teams are 3-1 in bowl games (Temple, Ohio University, and Toledo won; Western Michigan lost). Conference USA teams are 2-1 (Marshall and Southern Miss won; Tulsa lost). ACC teams are 2-2 (North Carolina and Wake Forest lost; North Carolina State and Florida State won). Independent teams are 1-1 (Notre Dame lost; BYU won). Big East teams are 1-1 (Louisville lost; Rutgers won). Big Ten teams are 1-1 (Purdue won; Iowa lost). Sun Belt teams are 1-1 (Louisiana-Lafayette won, Florida International lost). Mountain West teams are 2-3 (Wyoming, San Diego State, and Air Force lost; TCU and Boise State won). PAC-12 teams are 0-3 (Arizona State, California, and Washington). WAC teams are 0-3 (Utah State, Louisiana Tech, and Nevada).

During the regular season, the Upset Watch reviewed picks from the previous week, noted the bad picks, and pointed out a few games to give the underdog some credit in, even if it was only in Vegas. It also looked at one or two sure-fire favorites (two when Michigan wasn’t playing).

Because this is the bowl season (and our last hurrah for the 2011-2012 regular season), we’ll cover each of the bowl games, splitting them up by week.

As a reminder, the Michigan game will be covered on the January 3^rd posting.

Be sure to check out my website, Before Visiting the Sportsbook, throughout the week, for more content.

Recap:

Wins

Texas (8-5) -3.0 California (7-6). Result: Texas 21 California 10 [Props to wolver767 and Lord Maker for correctly predicting Texas would cover].

Florida State (9-4) -2.5 Notre Dame (8-5). Result: Florida State 18 Notre Dame 14 [Props to One Inch Woody and Lord Maker for correctly predicting Florida State would cover].

Baylor (10-3) -9.0 Washington (7-6). Result: Baylor 67 Washington 56 [Props to wolver767, One Inch Woody, Lord Maker, and Trebor for correctly predicting Baylor would cover].

Brigham Young (10-3) -1.0 Tulsa (8-5). Result: Brigham Young 24 Tulsa 21 [Props to One Inch Woody for correctly predicting Brigham Young would cover].

Push

Toledo (9-4) -1.0 Air Force (7-6). Result: Toledo 42 Air Force 41.

Losses

Louisville (7-6) +3.0 North Carolina State (8-5). Result: North Carolina State 31 Louisville 24 [Props to One Inch Woody and jamiemac for correctly predicting North Carolina State would cover].

Iowa State (6-7) +2.5 Rutgers (9-4). Result: Rutgers 27 Iowa State 13 [Props to Trebor for correctly predicting Rutgers would cover].

Mississippi State (7-6) -6.5 Wake Forest (6-7). Result: Mississippi State 23 Wake Forest 17 Mississippi State (6-6) [Props to One Inch Woody for correctly predicting Wake Forest would cover].

Iowa (7-5) +16.0 Oklahoma (9-3). Result: Oklahoma 31 Iowa 14 [Props to Lord Maker for correctly predicting Oklahoma would cover].

This Week

Six bowl games that take place between now and the next watch will have a top 25 team playing in them. An ACC/SEC matchup ends the games for 2011, with Virginia and (#25) Auburn meeting in the Chick-fil-A Bowl (7:30 PM EST/ESPN/ESPN 3D/ESPN3). The TicketCity Bowl kicks off the January bowl games, with at large choice (#19) Houston meeting (#22) Penn State (12:00 PM EST/ESPNU/ESPN3). A pair of early afternoon games involve Big Ten/SEC matchups; (#17) Michigan State looks to get Coach Mark Dantonio’s first bowl win as head coach; Michigan State’s last bowl win was in 2001, under then Coach Bobby Williams. The Spartans will meet (#16) Georgia in the Outback Bowl (1:00 PM EST/ABC). (#20) Nebraska will play in their first bowl game as a Big Ten member, meeting (#9) South Carolina in the Capital One Bowl (1:00 PM EST/ESPN/ESPN 3D/ESPN3). In the Granddaddy of them all, (#10) Wisconsin will make their second straight trip to Pasadena, facing (#5) Oregon, who will be in their second straight BCS bowl game (5:00 PM EST/ESPN/ESPN3). Wrapping up the January 2^nd bowl games, once considered national title contenders, (#3) Oklahoma State will meet (#4) Stanford in the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl (8:30 PM EST/ESPN/ESPN3).

Upset Watch

Northwestern (6-6) +11.0 Texas A&M (6-6) (@ Houston, TX). The Aggies are 7^th in total offense (21^st rushing, 18^th passing); Northwestern is 31^st (36^th rushing, 35^th passing). Texas A&M is 66^th in total defense (13^th rushing, 113^th passing); the Wildcats are 80^th (90^th rushing, 58^th passing). These teams have never met. Texas A&M is 13-19 all time in bowl games (0-5 SU in last 5; 0-5 ATS in last 5; 0-1 ATS as a favorite in last 5). Northwestern is 1-8 all time in bowl games (0-5 SU in last 5; 3-1-1 ATS in last 5; 3-1-1 ATS as an underdog in last 5). Northwestern Coach Pat Fitzgerald is 40-35 (31-40 ATS, 20-18 ATS underdog); Texas A&M Coach Tim DeRuyter is 0-0 (0-0 ATS, 0-0 ATS favorite). Texas A&M is 3-8 ATS as a favorite this year (3-9 overall ATS); Northwestern is 3-4 ATS as an underdog this year (5-7 overall ATS). Northwestern’s last bowl game was the 2010 TicketCity Bowl, a 45-38 loss to Texas Tech; Texas A&M’s last bowl game was the 2010 Cotton Bowl, a 41-24 loss to LSU. Take Northwestern to cover the points.

Utah (7-5) +3.5 Georgia Tech (8-4) (@ El Paso, TX). The Yellow Jackets are 17^th in total offense (3^rd rushing, 112^th passing); Utah is 110^th (82^nd rushing, 99^th passing). Georgia Tech is 45^th in total defense (70^th rushing, 30^th passing); the Utes are 29^th (7^th rushing, 89^th passing). These teams have never met. Georgia Tech is 22-17 all time in bowl games (0-5 SU in last 5; 1-4 ATS in last 5; 0-3 ATS as a favorite in last 5). Utah is 12-4 all time in bowl games (4-1 SU in last 5; 3-2 ATS in last 5; 2-1 ATS as an underdog in last 5). Utah Coach Kyle Whittingham is 64-25 (44-41-2 ATS, 12-10-0 ATS underdog); Georgia Tech Coach Paul Johnson is 79-47 (67-49-2 ATS, 28-28-1 ATS favorite). Georgia Tech is 4-3-1 ATS as a favorite this year (5-6-1 overall ATS); Utah is 3-3 ATS as an underdog this year (5-7 overall ATS). Georgia Tech’s last bowl game was the 2010 Independence Bowl, a 14-7 loss to Air Force; Utah’s last bowl game was the 2010 Las Vegas Bowl, a 26-3 loss to Boise State. Take Utah to cover the points.

Vanderbilt (6-6) -1.5 Cincinnati (9-3) (@ Memphis, TN). The Bearcats are 56^th in total offense (37^th rushing, 70^th passing); Vanderbilt is 97^th (47^th rushing, 98^th passing). Cincinnati is 46^th in total defense (6^th rushing, 105^th passing); the Commodores are 19^th (27^th rushing, 33^rd passing). Vanderbilt leads the series 4-3, with a 34-24 victory over Vanderbilt in 1994, 17-7 in 1993, 13-9 in 1977, and 32-0 in 1934. Cincinnati defeated Vanderbilt 33-7 in 1976, 6-0 in 1899, and 10-0 in 1898. Vanderbilt is 2-1-1 all time in bowl games (1-1 ATS; 0-1 ATS as a favorite). Cincinnati is 5-6 all time in bowl games (3-2 SU in last 5; 1-4 ATS in last 5; 0-1 ATS as an underdog in last 5). Cincinnati Coach Butch Jones is 40-24 (31-28-3 ATS, 9-12 ATS underdog); Vanderbilt Coach James Franklin is 6-6 (9-3 ATS, 4-0 ATS favorite). Vanderbilt is 4-0 ATS as a favorite this year (9-3 overall ATS); Cincinnati is 1-2 ATS as an underdog this year (6-5-1 overall ATS). Vanderbilt’s last bowl game was the 2008 Music City Bowl, in Memphis, a 16-14 win over Boston College; Cincinnati’s last bowl game was the 2009 Sugar Bowl, a 51-24 loss to Florida. Take Vanderbilt to cover the points.

Illinois (6-6) -1.5 UCLA (6-7) (@ San Francisco, CA). The Fighting Illini are 86^th in total offense (42^nd rushing, 91^st passing); UCLA is 62^nd (30^th rushing, 81^st passing). Illinois is 7^th in total defense (42^nd rushing, 4^th passing); the Bruins are 91^st (96^th rushing, 68^th passing). UCLA leads the series 6-5, with a 35-17 victory over Illinois in 2004, 6-3 in 2003, 6-3 in 1991 (Sun Bowl), 45-9 in 1984 (Rose Bowl), 18-14 in 1958, and 16-6 in 1957. Illinois defeated UCLA 26-7 in 1964, 18-12 in 1963, 27-13 in 1951, 14-6 in 1950, and 45-14 in 1947 (Rose Bowl). Illinois is 7-9 all time in bowl games (3-2 SU in last 5; 3-2 ATS in last 5; 1-0 ATS as a favorite in last 5). UCLA is 14-15-1 all time in bowl games (2-3 SU in last 5; 3-2 ATS in last 5; 1-0 ATS as an underdog in last 5). UCLA Coach Mike Johnson is 0-0 (0-0-0 ATS, 0-0-0 ATS underdog); Illinois Coach Vic Koenning is 4-19 (10-10-1 ATS, 0-0 ATS favorite) since 2001. Illinois is 3-7 ATS as a favorite this year (5-7 overall ATS); UCLA is 4-6 ATS as an underdog this year (5-8 overall ATS). Illinois’s last bowl game was the 2010 Texas Bowl, a 38-14 win over Baylor; UCLA’s last bowl game was the 2009 EagleBank Bowl, a 30-21 win over Temple. Take Illinois to cover the points.

Virginia (8-4) +3.0 Auburn (7-5) (@ Atlanta, GA). The Cavaliers are 51^st in total offense (53^rd rushing, 62^nd passing); Auburn is 104^th (38^th rushing, 106^th passing). Virginia is 30^th in total defense (34^th rushing, 50^th passing); the Tigers are 78^th (99^th rushing, 45^th passing). The series is tied 1-1, with Virginia defeating Auburn 19-0 in 1998 and Auburn defeating Virginia 28-17 in 1997. Auburn is 21-13-2 all time in bowl games (4-1 SU in last 5; 3-2 ATS in last 5; 2-2 ATS as a favorite in last 5). Virginia is 7-10 all time in bowl games (4-1 SU in last 5; 4-1 ATS in last 5; 3-0 ATS as an underdog in last 5). Virginia Coach Mike London is 12-12 (10-12-2 ATS, 6-7-0 ATS underdog); Auburn Coach Gene Chizik is 34-29 (31-29 ATS, 12-13 ATS favorite). Auburn is 1-3 ATS as a favorite this year (4-8 overall ATS); Virginia is 3-2 ATS as an underdog this year (5-6-1 overall ATS). Auburn’s last bowl game was the 2010 BCS National Championship, a 22-19 win over Oregon; Virginia’s last bowl game was the 2007 Gator Bowl, a 31-28 loss to Texas Tech. Take Virginia to cover the points, and win.

Penn State (9-3) +9.0 Houston (12-1) (@ Dallas, TX). The Cougars are 1^st in total offense (62^nd rushing, 1^st passing); Penn State is 94^th (54^th rushing, 96^th passing). Houston is 64^th in total defense (77^th rushing, 38^th passing); the Nittany Lions are 10^th (48^th rushing, 5^th passing). Penn State leads the series 2-0, with a 31-14 victory over Houston in 1977 and 24-7 in 1964. Penn State is 27-14-2 all time in bowl games (3-2 SU in last 5; 3-2 ATS in last 5; 2-2 ATS as an underdog in last 5). Houston is 8-11-1 all time in bowl games (1-4 SU in last 5; 1-4 ATS in last 5; 1-1 ATS as a favorite in last 5). Penn State Coach Tom Bradley is 1-2 (1-1-1 ATS, 1-1-1 ATS underdog); Houston Coach Tony Levine is 0-0 (0-0 ATS, 0-0 ATS favorite). Houston is 10-3 ATS as a favorite this year (10-3 overall ATS); Penn State is 1-2-1 ATS as an underdog this year (3-8-1 overall ATS). Penn State’s last bowl game was the 2010 Outback Bowl, a 37-24 loss to Florida; Houston’s last bowl game was the 2009 Armed Forces Bowl, a 47-20 loss to Air Force. Take Penn State to cover the points.

Georgia (10-3) -2.0 Michigan State (10-3) (@ Tampa, FL). The Spartans are 60^th in total offense (76^th rushing, 44^th passing); Georgia is 39^th (41^st rushing, 49^th passing). Michigan State is 5^th in total defense (12^th rushing, 11^th passing); the Bulldogs are 3^rd (9^th rushing, 7^th passing). Georgia leads the series 2-0, with a 24-12 victory over Michigan State in 2009 (Capital One Bowl) and 34-27 in 1989 (Gator Bowl). Georgia is 26-17-3 all time in bowl games (4-1 SU in last 5; 4-1 ATS in last 5; 3-1 ATS as a favorite in last 5). Michigan State is 7-14 all time in bowl games (0-5 SU in last 5; 1-4 ATS in last 5; 1-4 ATS as an underdog in last 5). Michigan State Coach Mark Dantonio is 61-39 (49-44-4 ATS, 17-9-1 ATS underdog); Georgia Coach Mark Richt is 106-37 (69-64-4 ATS, 47-43-2 ATS favorite). Georgia is 8-2 ATS as a favorite this year (8-4-1 overall ATS); Michigan State is 3-2 ATS as an underdog this year (9-4 overall ATS). Michigan State’s last bowl game was the 2010 Capital One Bowl, a 49-7 loss to Alabama; Georgia’s last bowl game was the 2010 Liberty Bowl, a 10-6 loss to UCF. Take Georgia to cover the points.

South Carolina (10-2) +1.0 Nebraska (9-3) (@ Orlando, FL). The Cornhuskers are 59^th in total offense (13^th rushing, 103^rd passing); South Carolina is 74^th (26^th rushing, 97^th passing). Nebraska is 36^th in total defense (66^th rushing, 17^th passing); the Gamecocks are 4^th (45^th rushing, 2^nd passing). Nebraska leads the series 3-0, with a 30-21 victory over South Carolina in 1987, 27-24 in 1986, and 28-6 in 1964. South Carolina is 4-12 all time in bowl games (1-4 SU in last 5; 1-4 ATS in last 5; 0-1 ATS as an underdog in last 5). Nebraska is 24-23 all time in bowl games (3-2 SU in last 5; 3-2 ATS in last 5; 1-1 ATS as a favorite in last 5). Nebraska Coach Bo Pelini is 39-15 (27-25-1 ATS, 24-21-1 ATS favorite); South Carolina Coach Steve Spurrier is 64-37 (52-42-3 ATS, 21-21-2 ATS underdog) since 2001. South Carolina is 0-1 ATS as an underdog this year (5-6-1 overall ATS); Nebraska is 4-5-1 ATS as a favorite this year (4-7-1 overall ATS). South Carolina’s last bowl game was the 2010 Chick-fil-A Bowl, a 26-17 loss to Florida State; Nebraska’s last bowl game was the 2010 Holiday Bowl, a 19-7 loss to Washington. Take South Carolina to cover the points, and win.

Ohio (6-6) +2.0 Florida (6-6) (@ Jacksonville, FL). The Buckeyes are 107^th in total offense (27^th rushing, 116^th passing); Florida is 102^nd (75^th rushing, 87^th passing). Ohio is 24^th in total defense (52^nd rushing, 15^th passing); the Gators are 9^th (40^th rushing, 9^th passing). Florida leads the series 1-0, with a 41-14 victory over Ohio in 2007 (BCS National Championship). Florida is 19-19 all time in bowl games (4-1 SU in last 5; 4-1 ATS in last 5; 3-1 ATS as a favorite in last 5). Ohio is 20-22 all time in bowl games (2-3 SU in last 5; 3-2 ATS in last 5; 2-1 ATS as an underdog in last 5). Ohio Coach Luke Fickell is 6-6 (6-6 ATS, 4-1 ATS underdog); Florida Coach Will Muschamp is 6-6 (4-8 ATS, 4-3 ATS favorite). Florida is 4-3 ATS as a favorite this year (4-8 overall ATS); Ohio is 4-1 ATS as an underdog this year (6-6 overall ATS). Florida’s last bowl game was the 2010 Outback Bowl, a 37-24 win over Penn State; Ohio’s last bowl game was the 2010 Sugar Bowl, a 31-26 win over Arkansas. Take Ohio to cover the points.

Oregon (11-2) -5.5 Wisconsin (11-2) (@ Pasadena, CA). The Badgers are 15^th in total offense (10^th rushing, 63^rd passing); Oregon is 6^th (5^th rushing, 68^th passing). Wisconsin is 8^th in total defense (47^th rushing, 3^rd passing); the Ducks are 60^th (46^th rushing, 82^nd passing). Wisconsin leads the series 3-1 with a 27-23 victory over Oregon in 2000, 22-19 in 1978, and 22-10 in 1977. Oregon defeated Wisconsin 31-28 in 2001. Oregon is 9-15 all time in bowl games (2-3 SU in last 5; 2-3 ATS in last 5; 0-1 ATS as a favorite in last 5). Wisconsin is 11-11 all time in bowl games (2-3 SU in last 5; 3-2 ATS in last 5; 3-2 ATS as an underdog in last 5). Wisconsin Coach Bret Bielema is 60-18 (39-34-1 ATS, 6-8 ATS underdog); Oregon Coach Chip Kelly is 33-6 (21-16-2 ATS, 18-13-2 ATS favorite). Oregon is 5-6-1 ATS as a favorite this year (6-6-1 overall ATS); Wisconsin is 0-0 ATS as an underdog this year (7-6 overall ATS). Oregon’s last bowl game was the 2010 BCS National Championship, a 22-19 loss to Auburn; Wisconsin’s last bowl game was the 2010 Rose Bowl, in Pasadena, a 21-19 loss to TCU. Take Oregon to cover the points.

Stanford (11-1) +4.0 Oklahoma State (11-1) (@ Glendale, AZ). The Cardinal are 11^th in total offense (22^nd rushing, 26^th passing); Oklahoma State is 3^rd (43^rd rushing, 2^nd passing). Stanford is 25^th in total defense (5^th rushing, 78^th passing); the Cowboys are 107^th (84^th rushing, 102^nd passing). These teams have never met. Oklahoma State is 13-8 all time in bowl games (3-2 SU in last 5; 3-2 ATS in last 5; 3-1 ATS as a favorite in last 5). Stanford is 10-11-1 all time in bowl games (2-3 SU in last 5; 4-1 ATS in last 5; 3-0 ATS as an underdog in last 5). Stanford Coach David Shaw is 11-1 (9-3 ATS, 0-0-0 ATS underdog); Oklahoma State Coach Mike Gundy is 58-30 (50-32-3 ATS, 33-14-1 ATS favorite). Oklahoma State is 8-3 ATS as a favorite this year (9-3 overall ATS); Stanford is 0-0 ATS as an underdog this year (9-3 overall ATS). Oklahoma State’s last bowl game was the 2010 Alamo Bowl, a 36-10 win over Arizona; Stanford’s last bowl game was the 2010 Orange Bowl, a 40-12 win over Virginia Tech. Take Stanford to cover the points.

Who ya got?

Only the SEC has yet to have had one team play in a bowl game; they’ll finally have one team play on Friday (Mississippi State). We round in to mid-bowl season form this weekend, with 15 games being played between Friday and Tuesday.

For those of you keeping track, Conference USA teams are 2-0 (Marshall and Southern Miss). Big 12 teams are 1-0 (Missouri). Big Ten teams are 1-0 (Purdue). MAC teams are 2-1 in bowl games (Temple and Ohio University won; Western Michigan lost). Mountain West teams are 2-2 (Wyoming and San Diego State lost; TCU and Boise State won). Sun Belt teams are 1-1 (Louisiana-Lafayette won, Florida International lost). ACC teams are 0-1 (North Carolina). PAC-12 teams are 0-1 (Arizona State). WAC teams are 0-3 (Utah State, Louisiana Tech, and Nevada).

During the regular season, the Upset Watch reviewed picks from the previous week, noted the bad picks, and pointed out a few games to give the underdog some credit in, even if it was only in Vegas. It also looked at one or two sure-fire favorites (two when Michigan wasn’t playing).

Because this is the bowl season (and our last hurrah for the 2011-2012 regular season), we’ll cover each of the bowl games, splitting them up by week.

As a reminder, I’ll have more picks on Saturday, December 31^st, before noon, covering the games through January 2^nd. The Michigan game will be covered on the January 3^rd posting.

Be sure to check out my website, Before Visiting the Sportsbook, throughout the week, for more content.

Recap:

Wins

Marshall (7-6) +5.0 Florida International (8-5). Result: Marshall 20 Florida International 10.

Boise State (12-1) -13.5 Arizona State (6-7). Result: Boise State 56 Arizona State 24 [Props to Trebor and BrewCityBlue for correctly predicting Boise State would cover].

Southern Miss (12-2) -5.5 Nevada (7-6). Result: Southern Miss 24 Nevada 17 [Props to Trebor for correctly predicting Southern Miss would cover].

Missouri (8-5) -3.5 North Carolina (7-6) (@ Shreveport, LA). Result: Missouri 41 North Carolina 24 [Props to Trebor and BrewCityBlue for correctly predicting Missouri would cover].

Losses

TCU (11-2) -9.5 Louisiana Tech (8-5) (@ San Diego, CA). Result: TCU 31 Louisiana Tech 24 [Props to BrewCityBlue for correctly predicting Louisiana Tech would cover].

Western Michigan (7-6) +2.5 Purdue (7-6). Result: Purdue 37 Western Michigan 32.

This Week

Only three bowl games that take place between now and Friday will have a top 25 team playing in them. In a traditional PAC-12/Big 12 matchup, the Holiday Bowl will pair California and (#24) Texas (8:00 PM EST/ESPN/ESPN3) on Wednesday night. On Thursday night, Heisman trophy winner QB Robert Griffin III leads (#12) Baylor against Washington in the Alamo Bowl (9:00 PM EST/ESPN/ESPN3). A late Friday night game will pair Iowa against (#14) Oklahoma in the Insight Bowl (10:00 PM EST/ESPN/ESPN3).

Upset Watch

Louisville (7-5) +3.0 North Carolina State (7-5) (@ Charlotte, NC). The Cardinals are 104^th in total offense (94^th rushing, 79^th passing); North Carolina State is 93^rd (107^th rushing, 52^nd passing). Louisville is 23^rd in total defense (10^th rushing, 61^st passing); the Wolfpack are 39^th (41^st rushing, 55^th passing). Louisville leads the series 3-0, with a 29-10 victory over North Carolina State in 2007, 35-14 in 1994, and 26-2 in 1951. North Carolina State is 13-11-1 all time in bowl games (4-1 SU in last 5; 4-0-1 ATS in last 5; 3-0 ATS as a favorite in last 5). Louisville is 7-7-1 all time in bowl games (3-2 SU in last 5; 2-3 ATS in last 5; 0-2 ATS as an underdog in last 5). Louisville Coach Charlie Strong is 14-12 (15-11 ATS, 8-4 ATS underdog); North Carolina State Coach Tom O’Brien is 85-52 (68-53-3 ATS, 30-31-2 ATS favorite) since 2001. North Carolina State is 2-4 ATS as a favorite this year (5-6-1 overall ATS); Louisville is 6-0 ATS as an underdog this year (8-4 overall ATS). Louisville’s last bowl game was the 2010 Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl, a 31-28 win over Southern Miss; North Carolina State’s last bowl game was the 2010 Champs Sports Bowl, a 23-7 win over West Virginia. Take Louisville to cover the points.

Toledo (8-4) -1.0 Air Force (7-5) (@ Washington, DC). The Rockets are 8^th in total offense (14^th rushing, 29^th passing); Air Force is 19^th (2^nd rushing, 113^th passing). Toledo is 76^th in total defense (28^th rushing, 109^th passing); the Falcons are 70^th (113^th rushing, 6^th passing). These teams have never met before. Toledo is 7-4 all time in bowl games (2-3 SU in last 5; 2-3 ATS in last 5; 2-2 ATS as a favorite in last 5). Air Force is 10-10-1 all time in bowl games (2-3 SU in last 5; 3-2 ATS in last 5; 2-2 ATS as an underdog in last 5). Air Force Coach Troy Calhoun is 34-18 (28-20-1 ATS, 10-7-1 ATS underdog); Toledo Coach Matt Campbell is 0-0 (0-0-0 ATS, 0-0-0 ATS favorite). Toledo is 5-3 ATS as a favorite this year (7-5 overall ATS); Air Force is 2-2 ATS as an underdog this year (5-7 overall ATS). Toledo’s last bowl game was the 2010 Little Caesars Bowl, a 34-32 loss to Florida International; Air Force’s last bowl game was the 2010 Independence Bowl, a 14-7 win over Georgia Tech. Take Toledo to cover the points.

Texas (7-5) -3.0 California (7-5) (@ San Diego, CA). The Golden Bears are 37^th in total offense (48^th rushing, 38^th passing); Texas is 45^th (19^th rushing, 85^th passing). California is 26^th in total defense (37^th rushing, 43^rd passing); the Longhorns are 14^th (11^th rushing, 47^th passing). Texas leads the series 5-0, with a 56-15 victory over California in 1970, 17-0 in 1969, 28-3 in 1961, and 33-0 in 1959. Texas is 25-22-2 all time in bowl games (4-1 SU in last 5; 2-3 ATS in last 5; 1-2 ATS as a favorite in last 5). California is 10-9-1 all time in bowl games (4-1 SU in last 5; 2-3 ATS in last 5; 0-0 ATS as an underdog in last 5). California Coach Jeff Tedford is 79-47 (64-58-1 ATS, 16-16-1 ATS underdog); Texas Coach Mack Brown is 113-28 (70-67-3 ATS, 55-48-2 ATS favorite) since 2001. Texas is 5-3 ATS as a favorite this year (6-6 overall ATS); California is 2-2 ATS as an underdog this year (7-5 overall ATS). Texas’s last bowl game was the 2009 BCS National Championship, a 37-21 loss to Alabama; California’s last bowl game was the 2009 Poinsettia Bowl, a 37-27 win over Utah. Take Texas to cover the points.

Florida State (8-4) -2.5 Notre Dame (8-4) (@ Orlando, FL). The Seminoles are 73^rd in total offense (99^th rushing, 34^th passing); Notre Dame is 33^rd (51^st rushing, 33^rd passing). Florida State is 6^th in total defense (2^nd rushing, 18^th passing); the Irish are 34^th (58^th rushing, 34^th passing). Florida State leads the series 4-2, with a 37-0 victory over Notre Dame in 2003, 31-26 in 1996 (Orange Bowl), 23-16 in 1994, and 19-13 in 1981; Notre Dame defeated Florida State 34-24 in 2002 and 31-24 in 1993. Florida State is 23-14-2 all time in bowl games (4-1 SU in last 5; 5-0 ATS in last 5; 1-0 ATS as a favorite in last 5). Notre Dame is 12-11-1 all time in bowl games (2-3 SU in last 5; 2-3 ATS in last 5; 2-2 ATS as an underdog in last 5). Notre Dame Coach Brian Kelly is 71-32 (52-41-4 ATS, 20-9-2 ATS underdog); Florida State Coach Jimbo Fisher is 18-8 (14-12 ATS, 12-8 ATS favorite). Florida State is 6-4 ATS as a favorite this year (6-6 overall ATS); Notre Dame is 0-1 ATS as an underdog this year (5-7 overall ATS). Florida State’s last bowl game was the 2010 Chick-fil-A Bowl, a 26-17 win over South Carolina; Notre Dame’s last bowl game was the 2010 Sun Bowl, a 33-17 win over Miami (FL). Take Florida State to cover the points.

Baylor (9-3) -9.0 Washington (7-5) (@ San Antonio, TX). The Huskies are 57^th in total offense (67^th rushing, 51^st passing); Baylor is 2^nd (18^th rushing, 5^th passing). Washington is 94^th in total defense (54^th rushing, 116^th passing); the Bears are 114^th (102^nd rushing, 112^th passing). Baylor leads the series 3-1, with a 17-14 victory over Washington in 1965, 13-7 in 1955, and 34-7 in 1954; Washington defeated Baylor 35-14 in 1964. Baylor is 8-9 all time in bowl games (2-3 SU in last 5; 2-3 ATS in last 5; 1-2 ATS as a favorite in last 5). Washington is 15-14-1 all time in bowl games (3-2 SU in last 5; 4-1 ATS in last 5; 3-0 ATS as an underdog in last 5). Washington Coach Steve Sarkisian is 19-18 (20-17-0 ATS, 11-12-0 ATS underdog); Baylor Coach Art Briles is 58-53 (54-52-1 ATS, 30-20-1 ATS favorite). Baylor is 6-2 ATS as a favorite this year (8-4 overall ATS); Washington is 3-3 ATS as an underdog this year (7-5 overall ATS). Baylor’s last bowl game was the 2010 Texas Bowl, a 38-14 win over Illinois; Washington’s last bowl game was the 2010 Holiday Bowl, a 19-7 win over Nebraska. Take Baylor to cover the points.

Brigham Young (9-3) -1.0 Tulsa (8-4) (@ Dallas, TX). The Cougars are 41^st in total offense (52^nd rushing, 46^th passing); Tulsa is 24^th (25^th rushing, 41^st passing). BYU is 17^th in total defense (21^st rushing, 29^th passing); the Golden Hurricane are 90^th (38^th rushing, 118^th passing). Brigham Young leads the series 6-1, with a 49-24 victory over Tulsa in 2006, 49-39 in 1997, 55-30 in 1996, 45-35 in 1995, 38-15 in 1984, and 25-7 in 1971. Tulsa defeated Brigham Young 55-47 in 2007. Brigham Young is 11-17-1 all time in bowl games (4-1 SU in last 5; 3-1 ATS in last 5; 2-1 ATS as a favorite in last 5). Tulsa is 8-9 all time in bowl games (4-1 SU in last 5; 5-1 ATS in last 5; 2-1 ATS underdog in last 5). Brigham Young Coach Bronco Mendenhall is 65-24 (48-37-1 ATS, 33-26-0 ATS favorite); Tulsa Coach Bill Blankenship is 8-4 (7-5 ATS, 2-3 ATS underdog). Brigham Young is 5-4 ATS as a favorite this year (8-4 overall ATS); Tulsa is 2-3 ATS as an underdog this year (7-5 overall ATS). Tulsa’s last bowl game was the 2010 Hawai’i Bowl, a 62-35 victory over Hawai’i; Brigham Young’s last bowl game was the 2010 New Mexico Bowl, a 52-24 win over UTEP. Take Brigham Young to cover the points.

Iowa State (6-6) +2.5 Rutgers (8-4) (@ Bronx, NY). The Scarlet Knights are 100^th in total offense (115^th rushing, 46^th passing); Iowa State is 55^th (35^th rushing, 75^th passing). Rutgers is 13^th in total defense (57^th rushing, 10^th passing); the Cyclones are 99^th (100^th rushing, 72^nd passing). These teams have never met. Rutgers is 4-2 all time in bowl games (3-2 SU in last 5; 4-0-1 ATS in last 5; 3-0-1 ATS as a favorite in last 5). Iowa State is 3-7 all time in bowl games (2-3 SU in last 5; 3-1-1 ATS in last 5; 3-1-1 ATS as an underdog in last 5). Iowa State Coach Paul Rhodes is 18-19 (20-16 ATS, 13-10-0 ATS underdog); Rutgers Coach Greg Schiano is 67-67 (68-57-1 ATS, 23-26 ATS favorite). Rutgers is 4-2 ATS as a favorite this year (8-4 overall ATS); Iowa State is 7-3 ATS as an underdog this year (7-5 overall ATS). Rutgers’s last bowl game was the 2009 St. Petersburg Bowl, a 45-24 win over UCF; Iowa State’s last bowl game was the 2009 Insight Bowl, a 14-13 win over Minnesota. Take Iowa State to cover the points.

Mississippi State (6-6) -6.5 Wake Forest (6-6) (@ Nashville, TN). The Bulldogs are 87^th in total offense (45^th rushing, 92^nd passing); Wake Forest is 76^th (96^th rushing, 36^th passing). Mississippi State is 43^rd in total defense (65^th rushing, 23^rd passing); the Demon Deacons are 75^th (70^th rushing, 71^st passing). These teams have never met. Mississippi State is 8-6 all time in bowl games (4-1 SU in last 5; 4-1 ATS in last 5; 1-0 ATS as a favorite in last 5). Wake Forest is 6-3 all time in bowl games (4-1 SU in last 5; 4-1 ATS in last 5; 2-1 ATS as an underdog in last 5). Wake Forest Coach Jim Grobe is 68-66 (63-63-4 ATS, 39-26-3 ATS underdog); Mississippi State Coach Dan Mullen is 20-17 (19-17 ATS, 10-6 ATS favorite). Mississippi State is 4-3 ATS as a favorite this year (6-6 overall ATS); Wake Forest is 5-2-1 ATS as an underdog this year (7-4-1 overall ATS). Mississippi State’s last bowl game was the 2010 Gator Bowl, a 52-14 win over Michigan; Wake Forest’s last bowl game was the 2008 EagleBank Bowl, a 29-19 win over Navy. Take Mississippi State to cover the points.

Iowa (7-5) +16.0 Oklahoma (9-3) (@ Tempe, AZ). The Hawkeyes are 70^th in total offense (77^th rushing, 56^th passing); Oklahoma is 4^th (49^th rushing, 4^th passing). Iowa is 68^th in total defense (64^th rushing, 66^th passing); the Sooners are 62^nd (49^th rushing, 83^rd passing). Oklahoma leads the series 1-0, with a 21-6 victory over Iowa in 1979. Oklahoma is 26-17-1 all time in bowl games (2-3 SU in last 5; 1-4 ATS in last 5; 1-1 ATS as a favorite in last 5). Iowa is 14-10-1 all time in bowl games (3-2 SU in last 5; 4-1 ATS in last 5; 1-3 ATS as an underdog in last 5). Iowa Coach Kirk Ferentz is 92-46 (75-56-3 ATS, 22-16-3 ATS underdog) since 2001; Oklahoma Coach Bob Stoops is 118-29 (74-67-4 ATS, 55-50-3 ATS favorite) since 2001. Oklahoma is 6-5 ATS as a favorite this year (6-6 overall ATS); Iowa is 1-3 ATS as an underdog this year (5-7 overall ATS). Oklahoma’s last bowl game was the 2010 Fiesta Bowl, a 48-20 win over Connecticut; Iowa’s last bowl game was the 2010 Insight Bowl, a 27-24 win over Missouri. Take Iowa to cover the points.

Who ya got?