I only see Michigan State right now...did something get lost when you posted this? Looking forward to seeing the rest of the numbers.
M vs O - Some Numbers Against Common Opponents
Michigan and Ohio have played four common opponents this season: Michigan State, Nebraska, Purdue, and Illinois. I got to thinking about how the comparision between the teams via these common opponents might look like so I've thrown some numbers together.
MIchigan played them at home, won 12-10.
Ohio played them on the road, won 17-16.
Michgan played them on the road, lost 23-9.
Ohio played them at home, won 63-38
MIchigan played them at home, won 44-13.
Ohio played them at home, won 29-22 (OT)
Michigan played them at home, won 45-0.
Ohio played them at home, won 52-22.
Some totals for all four games, Michigan first:
A few things that jump out to me right off the bat are the point differentials and the turnover differentials. The point differentials are almost identical. Ohio scores more points than we do but also give up more at about the same rate. Turnovers, however, are completely opposite. They have managed to win all four games with a negative differential, while we have been on the positive side and lose a game (yes huge caveats apply to the Nebraska game for obvious reasons, but M was still only -1 in TOs that game).
So, what do all these numbers mean? Not much, probably. None of these games take into account the new Devin throwing/Denard running offensive machine. Gallon and Rountree have both stepped things up in the last 2-3 weeks (I'm sure DG has had something to do with that as well). Fitz is now out. A lot has changed on our side since any of the above numbers happened. I don't know much about what's happened on their side other than what I see on Sportscenter.
OSU seems to be a bit bipolar to me. They blow out a solid Nebraska team yet have to go to overtime to dispatch Danny Hope's hapless Boilermakers? Obviously they are a good team, but how good? Is the new Devin-Denard Fushion Cuisine Offense really as good as it's been, or is it more the result of overmatched foes with poor defenses? What do you guys think?
EDIT - Sorry I posted before I was done, I didn't know "save" meant "publish".
I think expectation-wise, this might be the most even matchup since 2006. That's what it feels like, though gameday atmosphere can always change that. Last year wasn't expected to be as close as it was.
The Purdue overtime game is a little bit misleading. Two breakdown plays (83 yard pass and 100 yard kickoff return) make the game look close, but it wasn't. And the Miller injury, granted he wasn't playing lights out before he went down.
The Illinois game is also a little misleading. Scheelhause went down with an injury vs. Michigan. We would have still dismantled them, but with their star quarterback out they had no change of putting up points against us. They were driving against us early and would have probably put up a touchdown, or at the very least a few field goals.
And dear lord I would have actually liked to see Denard not get injured vs. Nebraska, even if that still meant a loss. A full stat sheet would have made the litmus test much more clear when breaking down our chances this Saturday.
Taken that into account, like what's been said, it's very comparable. Ohio seems to play down (or up, in Nebraska's case) to the level of their opponents.
The Nebraska game wasn't exactly a blowout for Ohio until late in that game. I don't recall all of the specifics, but it was a shootout and a one score game until late in the 3rd quarter IIRC. Sometime after that (and Burkhead getting hurt) Nebraska's offense seemed to stall and Ohio pulled away from them.
I thought the Penn St and Wiscy games were more impressive wins.
... They also squeaked by Indiana and Cal FWIW.
Devin has looked good, but I hope he can look as good against Ohio's D. I really think the wildcard for us is Funchess. If we can get him going, it'll be a long day for their defense. On the flip side, if they get Stoneburner going....shit. In this game there will actually be a Devin Smith playing and let's pray to god he doesn't end up wide open on a deep route.