Although yesterday was a relatively breezy day - sometimes literally, if you spent any of yesterday outside - we do have some things to run through in the aftermath of the game thread from just about 17 hours or so ago.
There was light participation insofar as the thread is concerned - 1,260 posts - but this is typical when it is a home game and a liveblog is running for the game. A couple years ago, it was actually fairly rare for threads to break 2,000 posts and this year we've actually only done that once - for Wisconsin.
Anyway, there were only 109 fucks given for this game, which is way down from the high of 422 fucks given during our game with Wisconsin and even less than the number of fucks given for Rutgers. That isn't to say that Illinois is worse than Rutgers - Illinois is Rutgers but with some money in savings, if you will. The number of shits remained fairly steady, only up four shits from last game to 54 shits and down from a season high so far of 102 shits given against Colorado.
How does that translate to tempo-free thread statistics?
FART Rate, or Fucks Adjusted For Real Time, came out to 0.574 for this thread, down slightly from Rutgers and down significantly from Wisconsin, which sat at 2.110. That was 2 fucks given per minute of airtime, in other words.
SHART Rate, or Shits Adjusted For Real Time, was 0.284, which is up slightly from Rutgers, but only a little more than half of the season high against Colorado, which was 0.510, or in the case of that game, one shit for every two minutes of airtime.
The SQUIRT number, or the combined FART / SHART, was 2.019, so almost 2 fucks for each shit, which is less than the season average of close to three fucks for every shit. and down from the high against Wisconsin, which was 6.492.
Of amusing note, the FAP Rate - Fucks Adjusted For Total Plays - was exactly 1.000 - we managed precisely a fuck per snap.
Let's shift to another interesting trend - a noted uptick in "damn". Here's the graph of normalized values for the Original Six of this analysis:
"Damn" is the gray bar, and for the last three games, we've been trending upward overall with its use. Going back through these threads, much of that can be explained with the board's general assessment of the quality of play, but also a couple moments where someone was down or injured. For a long time, we did not use "damn" nearly as much as you would think on the board, but it is beginning to find expression.
Overall efficiency - 474 tracked words measured against thread size - was 2.66, which is the third lowest of the year. Only Penn State and Hawaii managed lower overall efficiency scores. That being said, 2.66 - in the revised scale - is a fairly easy win most times, whereas in the older version of this metric those were typically stressful wins or close losses. Harbaugh effect indeed.
So, on to Michigan State. I am sure we'll have more to report next Sunday.
Last night's game proved to be one of those times where the MGoBlog open thread for the game became something of a repository for the swearing that occurs when you are enjoying yourself and the pain that you are causing to another team, not so much for the swearing which springs from stress or frustration. There was very little if any of that after the first couple drives.
If anything, the first half of the first page of comments were strewn with "fucks" which were a mix of the stale ESPN commentary and a little complaining about why we didn't just shell them from go.
Actually, I've never shown the blog this breakdown before, but here is the progression of fucks and shits by page. I go with 300 comments per page, so if you're wondering why so few, your settings might be different:
Of the 157 fucks given last night, a third of them basically come within the first 30 minutes of airtime, which represents the first page of comments approximately. As I said, the slow start in the first quarter may have been the only complaint there. The rest of the fucks were funny or positive.
It is important to note that "fuck" was not the most used word among the tracked words this time around - it was "Harbaugh". We were excited that Harbaugh laid a Harbaugh on a team that would dare marginalize the accomplishments of Harbaugh. Indeed, there was some talk about Chris Ash maybe even weeping a little bit at the realization that he gets to experience this Harbaugh for several years now. He may not have really, but it is fun to think of it that way.
174 mentions of Harbaugh, in fact, in 784 total tracked words, which is 23.26% of all the instances. Of course, then you have "fuck" at 157, but then "Peppers" at 112 times too, so we were definitely high on Peppers, and nowhere did anyone mistakenly say "fuck Peppers", because if you had, you wouldn't be here still, of course. Actually, the only word to score above it's average on usage amoung the "original six" of this analysis was "damn", and then only barely, and then only because....well, damn.
So, let's take a look at some overall numbers now - in 1,741 posts, there were 784 tracked instances, which makes for a 2.22 overall efficiency. That's actually the highest yet this season, but the liveblog sometimes steals users from the thread and the blowouts tend to produce smaller threads, so take that into consideration.
On the advanced metrics front, it was very quiet too - the FART rate was 0.748 against a SHART rate of only 0.238, producing a SQUIRT rate of 3.140, which given the historical data is typical of blowouts. THe FAP rate of 1.266 was actually in line with Colorado's FAP rate, but this time we were the only one playing tempo, relatively speaking, given that we ran 72 plays on offense.
There isn't too much else - expect a halfway report next weekend, where we will look at advances stats a little more in detail.
We saw a little glimmer of how the blog handles its adversity during the first half of the Colorado game when things did not go all that well, needless to say, but yesterday in a game against a conference opponent with a legitimate defense, a game that some strangely thought we could dance through, we received an interesting insight into game-long adversity.
Despite winning, we managed to do something that we haven't done in all the time I have been doing this - nearly literally doubled the fucks.
In the first four games, we managed to accumulate 487 fucks, and in three hours of old school Big Ten drudgery, we accumulated 422 fucks. If there's a headline from the game that applies to this little feature, it is definitely that. Although we tacked on a 25% increase in shit and a nearly 50% increase in "damn" in just one game, the totall fucks were something to behold. Now, granted it was concentrated around one phase of the game which came pre-imploded this time around, as well as the Newsome injury and a couple other events, but still it was fascinating.
So, let's take a look at the tempo-adjusted fucks - our FART (Fucks Adjusted For Real Time) rate for this game was 2.110, or essentially a little over 2 fucks per minute of total airtime, and our SHART (Shits Adjusted For Real Time) was 0.325, so we used shit sparingly in this game and went right to fuck. FAP Rate (Fucks Adjusted For Total Plays) comes in at 3.271, or a little over 3 fucks per snap. Both FART and FAP are at their highest levels since 2015 Penn State.
The combined FART / SHART, or SQUIRT, came in at 6.492, which indicates a pretty stressful fuck-filled game, heavy on the fucks compared to shits. The last time it was that high? 2014 Rutgers, bur let's never discuss this game so long as we all shall live, right?
As for the thread itself, across 2,100 replies we had 941 tracked instances, which comes to an overall efficiency rating of 2.23, but as you can see below, when you have a thread that by itself accounts for about 27% of all tracked instances over five games, it's easy to achieve that. Interestingly, all efficiencies so far this year have been in a range between about 2.90 and 2.20, which means we're overall pretty steady-handed about the season so far, I think.
If we look at the Original Six analysis with normalized values, you can see how much Colorado and now Wisconsin stand out as games have gone so far this season.
So, Colorado - heavy on "shit" and "suck", and Wisconsin was heavy on "fuck" and "damn" in comparison to other games. Seems like seasons of old to me. Maybe we 're settling into that familiar pattern of Michigan football stress after all.
Rutgers should be interesting in a different way - perhaps not so stressful this coming week.
MOD EDIT - Moving to diaries - LSA
Well, one of my biggest fears after this game was that we really wouldn't have too much to discuss given how well the game went, but as it turns out, there are a few things we can at least go over and that is what we shall do here.
First, let's point out something rather positive about the analysis - this was a "great" game. Indeed, that's the most common word in this week's analysis. "Great" actually outpaced "fuck", and even the "fuck" was pretty positive overall. 123 instances of "great" versus only 107 fucks, which is not something that we manage very often even in these much better times.
Let's delve into the fucks though - a great majority of them actually center around one particular moment in the game, and that is Clark's injury. That goues for many of the instancse of "shit" too, so while it was a mostly positive day, the misfortune that football can bring to a team was obviously at play in the numbers.
The overall picture - this was a very small thread as open threads in the last year go at only 1,356 posts, but in those posts, we had 496 instances of tracked words, which makes for an efficiency of 2.73 - that is consistent with a Harbaugh win in the revised scale. A similar result before 2015 would have been reserved for the wins that came out of our ass, or worse, losses.
Now, for those of you who missed Thursday's introduction of some potential advanced metrics which adjust certain words for tempo and attempt to gain a better understanding of the threads, this will seem like a strange thing to say - the 107 fucks and 62 shits, when adjusted for tempo, produced the following:
Fucks Adjusted for Real Time, or FART Rate - 0.535
Fucks Adjusted For Total Plays, or FAP Rate - 0.764
Shits Adjusted For Real Time, or SHART Rate - 0.315
Combined FART / SHART, or SQUIRT Number - 1.698
Based on history, 1.698 would be consistent with a win. Now, the "Real Time" we are discussing here is airtime of the game, which accounts for those who - like myself, at least this week - watched from home. Total Plays is just that, all 140 snaps in the game yesterday, in this case.
Now, at this point, I would throw a few chart in here. However, Photobucket is acting up, so I will throw them into the piece when I move it to the Diary section.
In summary, it was a very breezy day in the Open Thread, with not too much going on - "great" was used for everything from the defense to the running game, "fucks" were great too. Most interestingly, our most sparing praise - "Awesome" - even made five appearances, and all but one of the instances of "fire" were aimed at James Franklin, and that remaining one was aimed at Matt Millen, who did BTN's coverage of MSU / Wisconsin, because Lions fans remember.....or do we remember....
Wisconsin should be interesting, both on the field and in the threads.
In the latest installment of “The State Of Our Open Threads”, someone had asked for some historical perspective on some of the data, and I decided that it would be a good idea to go back through the data on two of the more common words among those tracked – “fuck” and “shit” – which are, incidentally, two of our more indicative words, and see exactly what the history of each could tell us about the last three years of the board on football Saturdays.
The main analysis is for the regular season only, although I do have bowl data. Being that the period was from 2013 to now, I kept the bowl data separate since, well, we didn’t go to one in 2014. That aside, it was interesting to go back through the old data and see what might be gleaned from it that hasn’t already, not to mention see if there were any more interesting metrics that we had not devised yet.
Before we get into some new metrics, the raw data for each word should be examined.
The raw, unadjusted fucks are charted below, beginning from the start of 2013 to now. For purposes of this stab at the analysis, the bowl game data is excluded.
You can see the bulge in 2015, which has a lot more to do with the enthusiasm at the beginning of the Harbaugh era of Michigan football than anything else. As there are fucks of frustration, so there are fucks of elation, and quite a bit of what is going on there can be explained that way. If we scan the last two years of Hoke’s time here, a few games immediately stand out specifically for how angry we got – 2013 Penn State, 2013 Iowa (80% of those fucks were 2nd half fucks), and 2014 Rutgers. Over there, the “fucks” point to what MGoBlog may have deemed watershed moments in the waning days of the previous coaching regime.
Now, the unfettered shit.
You get a similar story for Harbaugh’s time to date actually, although “shit” tends to be the one we reserve more for plays or calls that do not go our way, and there was enough of that even in the wins in 2015 to explain that. It had an interesting run in 2013 and 2014 too – it was in relatively heavy use in the 2013 Iowa game and then it hit unheard of levels for the 2014 Utah game, a game punctuated by a rain that said without words what a lot of us were feeling.
After a few discussions with people, I began to realize that we need another level of this analysis – the fucks must be tempo adjusted to get a better handle on just how we felt, so there are two ways we can look at this. One is the Fucks Adjusted For Real Time (i.e., approximate airtime in minutes, accounting for those at home), or the FART rate and the other is Fucks Adjusted For Total Plays, which we will call the FAP Rate. They will look similar to the previous “Fuck” graph but perhaps they tell us a few things.
Here’s FART Rate:
So, we do see a few things here – the highest FART rate belongs to 2015 Indiana game, followed closely by the 2015 Michigan State game, both of which contained some hairy moments – I’ll put it politely.
Perhaps FAP Rate says something different:
Similar to FART, but telling you how many fucks on average were tossed into the open thread per offensive and defensive snap, and like FART, showing you a little bit how game length and game speed can affect our fucks.
Let’s do the same thing for “shit” using the same data. That will give us “Shits Adjusted For Real Time”, which we will call the SHART rate, and “Shits Adjusted For Total Plays”, or SHAT because that sounds better to me.
So, here’s the SHART rate for this period:
One thing is clear at this point until 2014 Utah, “shit” was not quite the shit on the blog. Clearly, it has seen a majority of its use since that game.
SHAT Rate should probably look similar:
It does. The 2015 Minnesota and Penn State games have the highest SHAT, which I find interesting because at least during the Minnesota game, I am sure I used that word quite a bit.
There’s another transformation that we can do here at this point. Let’s look at the FART / SHART combined ratio and see if we can get a good handle on how we were using these words relative to one another in recent years. We can call this the SQUIRT Number for the threads.
Here’s what that looks like:
The highest SQUIRT numbers clearly belong to 2013 Penn State and 2014 Rutgers. The average SQUIRT over this period is about 2.81, so basically for every three fucks, there is a shit. In the two games just mentioned though, there was a tendency to run with fuck rather than get mired in shit and I don’t blame anyone either.
Anyway, this is just a warning that you may see some more analytics on occasion.
MOD EDIT - Moving to diaries. Good idea. - LSA
Well, let it never be said about this place that we don't handle adversity creatively because that's something that I would expect from MGoBlog.
The first quarter was brutal, the second quarter had me concerned - anyone else like me who was there may even share that feeling, and yes, those feelings produced certain words. What you'll find surprising perhaps, however, is that despite all that, a decent second half changes your day, your mood, your everything entirely, so it didn't produce quite as many of those words as you might expect.
Indeed, in 1,957 total posts, we found only 175 instances of "fuck", although this is up significant from 148 instances in the UCF game. What we did see is a lot more "shit" in this contest, however - 102 instances of "shit", although those of you who laid into Speight might argue for a higher number, and that is up from only 68 instances in the UCF game. "Suck" saw an uptick too - 25 instances in the UCF game to 42 instances yesterday, and yeah, nearly all of them in the first half and nearly all of them about the defense.
On the upside, because there were a few of these, there was a lot of Peppers. Indeed, we more or less got to see Peppers doing all the things, which made me kind of sad that I never bothered to track the levels of Heisman in open threads, just for kicks, because I heard people saying it around me yesterday. Indeed, from a mere 14 mentions in the UCF, we talked about Peppers 132 times in the Colorado game, as we should have.
Overall for the thread, we ended up with 776 tracked instances for the analysis, not including other words which now get tracked such as "legit" - that saw only 15 uses in the thread and most of them were in regards to the Colorado offense when run be Liufau. Across 1,957 posts, that means an overall efficiency of 2.52, consistent with a stressful win or - in worst case scenarios - a loss. Those two things tend to register the same on here.
So, we're getting enough data to show a few interesting trends. Here is what the Original Six look like right now:
Considering that "fuck" and "shit" are the board staples and most indicative of the state of things more often than not, you can see that those two words do show the ramp-up from the relatively breezy Hawaii game to getting a bit of a scare yesterday. If tradition holds, we get a bit of a reset and then the slow (sometimes lightning quick) increase in usage heading into the Ohio State. How quickly did the "fuck" escalate though? See the "Fuck-Fire" char below:
I initially tied "fuck" to "fire" because we were mired in the Hoke-Borges dynamic, but what we see here is that the two are still relating to one another. Yesterday, there were some calls to fire Don Brown again - possibly a few eanest ones from those with the irrational expectation that we should just blank everybody and anything less is unacceptable.
There's also this, anothe two words that used to closely relate on MGoBlog:
The "Shit-Damn" relationship is somewhat wobbly this time around. Indeed, you can see where we kind of passed up "damn" and went right to "shit", particularly yesterday. Like in many life situation, when one word no longer covers it, we find another one - that's the fucking beauty of language.
So, there's where we're at - some of us are still working off yesterday's stress. The cussing may have subsided, but here we are on record.