LSAClassOf2000

USING RIVALS’ STAR RATINGS TO LOOK AT BIG TEN RECRUITING: 2002-2013 CLASSES

I decided to take a look at Rivals.com and the star ratings that they give recruits to come up with an approximation of relative recruiting success over twelve classes (2002-2013) in the Big Ten. To see where Nebraska may have fit in (we can’t really know how different it would be if they’d been in the conference for the whole period studied), I included them as well.

So, including Nebraska, Rivals had ratings on 3,160 recruits from the period 2002 to 2013. Here is what the relative distribution looks like:

So, as you will note, 5-stars and to a lesser extent 4-stars are something of a rare commodity in the Big Ten historically, accounting for only about 1/5^thof all recruits by their data. One thing that is interesting, and you can see this in more detail later, is just how far above the conference norm Michigan and Ohio State tend to sit.

The one thing that should jump out here is the percentage of five and four-star recruits that go to the traditional “Big Two”, if you will. In fact, about 44% of all players ranked four and higher end up at either Michigan or Ohio State. You can also see how sparse those same rosters tend to be when it comes to two-star recruits – by Rivals’ system, Big Ten teams not in Ann Arbor or Columbus attract nearly 98% of the two-star talent.

For all 3,160 players whose ratings I dumped from Rivals’ database, the grand mean star rating is 2.93, but individual teams obviously have had varied success. Here are the team means for the period from 2002 to 2013.

Including Nebraska as a point of some comparison, they would have been quite competitive in Big Ten recruiting circles regardless, so it seems. Here, they are in possession of the third-highest average. In fact, four teams have managed to recruit at or above a “three-star” in those twelve classes. Five teams have managed to stay above the grand mean of 2.93 – Ohio State, Michigan, Nebraska (had they been part of the Big Ten for the whole period), Penn State and Michigan State. Michigan State’s numbers spike with the Dantonio years, as you might expect, or otherwise this doesn’t happen, I think.

Here is the conference mean for each year as well:

So, the trend is actually upwards, ever so slightly. The net increase in the average star rating over this period is about 7%, which doesn’t seem like much. It would be interesting to compare this to other conferences in a further diary. I suspect some of this – as it is subjective – has to do with perhaps a steady-state perception of the Big Ten.  I really don’t know – that’s speculation on my part.

A more meaningful comparison between each team and the conference mean for a given year will appear shortly, but this now allows us to look at another intriguing phenomenon.

So, here again we see the relative inequities in where the talent tends to go in the Big Ten, with two schools having never experienced a year above the conference mean rating, one school having managed this feat only once and three schools having achieved this only twice. Of course, on-the-field success is a different story from year to year with some of these teams too, but it seems to illustrate that several teams in the conference do indeed get along with less, if these ratings are any indication. Obviously, there is overlooked or underrated talent, so it is ultimately subjective and not 100% accurate by any means.

So, how did each team fare against the conference mean each year? Here’s what that looks like for each team:

Here’s the whole conference on a rather non-descriptive but somewhat telling chart. You can see Michigan and Ohio State flying comfortably above the rest of the conference for the most part:

Here are some comparisons with select teams. Why Indiana? I was inspired somehow:

TL;DR CONCLUSION:

Like many of these diaries that I do, the driver is for the reader to draw their own conclusion about what they see. Rivals’ data was the easiest to categorize, which is why I used it here, but they aren’t the only ranking service, nor are stars the sole measure of who is in fact the better overall player. What was intriguing to me is how these ratings make the Big Ten appear when you dig into them a little, and the trends seem reasonably accurate to me.

OBLIGATORY:

I know that there have been several threads through the years on what those of us who attended the University Of Michigan did the moment we received the letter saying that we were in, but I thought I might devote a diary to the details of my own experience.

I began collecting applications and starting applications for colleges towards the end of my junior year of high school in 1995. I had my ACT and SAT results by then which, in combination with my GPA, was well above the published minimums for acceptance into Michigan at the time, but that was no guarantee in itself. There was an essay as well, not to mention the thousands of other kids doing and thinking the same thing that I was, wanting to be at the same school that I did.

During the summer of 1995, I was very explicit with my parents about my wishes – I would go to Michigan if accepted.  Living 15 minutes from the campus of a world-class institution is a distinct advantage that not everyone has, and it would also allow me to feed my addiction to Michigan athletics uninterrupted for the most part. I grew up watching Michigan teams on TV and in person, and now the opportunity to attend Michigan was real and near to me.

My parents were afraid that I was limiting myself, and even though I applied to 20 different schools simply to hedge my bets (this is what happens when you grow up with statistics too), they would bring home more applications. They would bring home recommendations from co-workers.  At one point, I had the application materials from perhaps three-quarters of the Division I football schools at the time, as well as Ivy League and even some European schools.

Nearly all of these applications required an essay of some sort (I steered away from a lot of schools that simply require the application and test results – I wanted to show them who I was), and here’s where I did something that probably no one should do – the essay I wrote was intended for my Michigan application. With minor alterations, I made it fit for the other schools to which I mailed applications (I still have many of them on disks actually), but everything about the application adventure was betting on my chances at getting into Michigan. In essence, if it was not Michigan, the essay was in effect a canned reply and by far the most personal form letter ever written by me.

After a flurry of application activity in August and September of 1995, there was little to do but wait. There were no electronic facilities that would have made this easier sadly, save for the essay, written on my trusty Mac Quadra. In the middle of September, replies began to roll in – I was accepted at NYU, USC, Vanderbilt, Penn State, Columbia and quite a few schools of note. Of course, my parents would not have been able to even hope to help me with the expenses if I went to the West Coast or to a place like Columbia. In reality, about 15 of the 20 applications were non-starters for financial reasons even if I had been accepted. 

I waited for Michigan’s reply anxiously. A few more came in the first half of October, including one from Illinois. By the week of the 23^rdof October, I was starting to think that this was not happening, and on a very cold and very damp Tuesday, I opened the mailbox as I always did on the way into the house after school, and lo and behold, there was a very large envelope from the University Of Michigan.

At that point, it was one of two things in my admittedly cynical mind – either a letter of acceptance and some welcome-type materials, or the single most detailed rejection in the history of rejections. Either way, I ran up the driveway and into the house, leaving my car idling at the end of the driveway with the driver door open in the middle of a fall shower.

Nervously, I searched for the letter opener in my dad’s desk. Failing in this search, I opened the packet with the only thing I could find – the pizza cutter. A few good, hard rolls and I was in – quite literally, as I read the letter. I was going to Michigan.

I stacked the other items in the packet on the kitchen counter, as for now, I knew what I needed to know. I ran back outside, past my car – still sitting there, blocking the driveway – and did a short celebratory run to the end of the street. I had worked hard to keep good grades and I had numerous AP classes to my credit, but I was going to a place I wanted to go. Indeed, I still have the letter as it meant that much.

By this time, my father was coming up the street, greeted by his son running around and a car blocking his driveway. I managed to get back to my car as he pulled in behind it. I still remember the exchange clearly.

“What the hell is going on?”, he said as he rolled down the window.

“I got into Michigan, dad!”, I said.

Unannounced, he gets out of the car, proceeded to hug me, and then gets right back in the car.

“So, what’s next for you?”, he asked.

“I don’t know. I have so many people I want to tell!”

“Are you going to be driving to their houses to tell them?”, he asked.

A strange question, I thought. Then it dawned on me. I got back in my now soaked car and pulled up into my normal spot in the driveway as my father wheeled into the garage.

It was a day that affected the course of my life, and even though it has now been nearly eighteen years since that day, I still remember the day I was officially told that I was accepted at Michigan as one of the happiest of my life.

I thought I might share some background on my first experiences with deep dives into MGoCulture, if you will.

It began in the early 1980s on an unassuming street in Northville, and it began with a 1977 Ford Econoline and its owner –both pictured on this page for the University Of Michigan Club Of Greater Northville (LINK). I spent many hours, when I was a wee lad, sitting in this van as it sat in a driveway wondering what it would be like to be at a Michigan game before I actually went to my first one in 1985.

Lou was our next door neighbor, and his daughters babysat me and my sisters quite often, so we spent an awful lot of time at their house. Actually, we even spent mornings before school there once in a while, waiting for the bus, whenever my parents had to go into work especially early. I was in elementary school, and like so many kids in southeast Michigan, I was a Michigan fan, but I suppose at the time that I didn’t know what this meant precisely. Lou knew in meticulous detail, and it still impacts my life to this day.

Most of their house was similar to the colonials around it (including ours). At the time, most of us on the street had not graduated from 1970s décor, so browns and burnt sienna were not uncommon, and linoleum floors ruled the day along with the odd shag carpet. There was one room in that house next door that was an aberration, but a beautiful aberration – the office.

I still remember first stepping into that office and being awestruck – if it had a block “M” on it, or Bo’s likeness (even Bump’s likeness, as Lou went to school mostly during Elliott’s tenure) or if it was simply Michigan-related, it was in there.  There was a board on one wall with dollar bills signed by names as diverse as Dan Dierdorf, Reggie McKenzie, Don Canham and even Bennie Oosterbaan. It was just dollar bills, but also signed photos, a few game balls from different decades, pennants and so on. Even though he likely had better things to do than explain all of these things to me, that is precisely what Lou did – the beginnings of my knowledge of MGoHistory and MGoCulture begin in that office just off the kitchen of the house next door.

Lou taught me “The Victors”, and not just the chorus. He even taught us “The Yellow And The Blue” and even let us attempt to play these songs on the organ in his living room. Actually, when we came over to the house sometimes, we would be quizzed on our MGoKnowledge. He took his self-imposed role as the neighborhood purveyor of all things Michigan quite seriously, and I know he still does even now. When I find myself buying MGoGear and supplying MGoTrivia to my niece and nephew, as well as my kids and my meighbors, I know exactly who I am channeling.

The Michigan flag flew proudly on the flagpole in Lou’s front garden. When the pole was ripped from the ground and thrown into the street by a June 1983 storm, it was actually the first thing that was replaced. Not even nature would prevent Michigan from reigning supreme over Morgan Circle. I watched as he installed the new pole, saying not a word, and at the end of that back-breaking day, in a ceremony to which we were all invited, the new Michigan flag (the old one was never found after the storm) went up with a “Go Blue!” and then some grilled delights on his back porch. He was dedicated to his university, and I think I picked that up as well, for the first thing that goes up every game day is the flag.

I don’t think I ever told him, and maybe I should this season as I walk past Edgewood and Snyder, where he tailgates more often than not, but I credit him primarily with starting me down the path that made me not just a knowledgeable Michigan fan, but a proud alum and MGoFanatic. Indeed, there are times on MGoBlog when, in the middle of a post, I stop to ask myself how Lou would respond.

Like many on this board, I come from a family that has Michigan ties from within as well, but when I think about who inspired this level of fandom and who inspired me to want to be part of that culture, I think of that house next door to ours in Northville and its resident Wolverine.

Thanks, Lou.

MGOPOINT SHIFTS DURING THE NON-OT SEASON

Last week, I completed the second half of a data pull which has been about eight months in the making .

About two weeks about the 2012 football season commenced, I copied the point table down to those with 500 MGoPoints, which is more or less in the middle of the MGoMiddleClass, if you will. At the time, there were 1,195 bloggers with point totals of 500 or better. In that group, the median value was 1,173 and the mode was 884. The average point total of this group was 2,149 points with a standard deviation of 3,149 points. That was August 17^th, 2012

As of April 17^th, 2013, the picture was markedly different. 1,320 users now boast point totals of 500 or more. The median value in this group is now 1,198 and the mode has jumped to 982 points. The average point total is 2,207 and the standard deviation has increased substantially to 3,714 points, no doubt because of the flurry of diaries and front page content during this stretch.

 Here, you can see some of the more significant shifts in the MGoPoint totals:

Among these groups, only one shrank, which is interesting. Another item of note is that the number of people who broke the 1000-point barrier during this time was significant, but of course, these are the highest traffic, most talkative months on the board.

In this table, you can see the twenty most “talkative” users in between posts, creating content (diaries, front page, etc…) and replying to others.

It should be noted that, among the users who had point totals of 500 or more in this period,  343,562 points were created in that time, and although I only list the Top 20 in terms of points created here, the Top 50 on the MGoPoints list account for 31.3% of all the points generated by this group. In the Top 50, the mean contribution was 1,113 points and the median was 395 points. The one “aberrant” figure, of course, would be joeyb, whose total is largely the result of a wager, but the points were deserved so I won’t adjust the figure.

So, if we break up the group into quartiles, you can sort of see where your completely made-up MGoPrestige sits in a broad sense. If your point total, for example, is between Brian’s and 2,178 points, you are in the 1^stquartile of those above 500 as of late last week. If you are between 2,177 and 1,198, you’re in the 2^ndquartile of users in this group. Between 1,197 and 739 sits the 3^rdquartile, and rounding out the group would be those beteween 738 points and 500 points.

TL;DR CONCLUSION:

These statistics don’t hold any real-life significance, of course, as points doing really matter. I have been interested for some time in doing an analysis of karma, but as I don’t have access to the table, this will have to suffice.

OBLIGATORY:

2012-13 HOOPS: A HIGH-LEVEL STATISTICAL REVIEW

(NOTE: THE CHART THUMBNAILS ARE LINKED TO PHOTOBUCKET)

(OTHER NOTE: I HAVE MADE THE PIE CHARTS LARGER AND ADDED THE CATEGORY LABELS.)

Now that the season is slipping into history, I thought it might be appropriate to take a brief look at how our team fared statistically.

First, a rather broad Division I view:

Courtesy of TeamRankings.com (comprehensive rankings here), we can get some insight into where Michigan stood as a team in various areas when compared to the rest of Division I basketball.  For example, there were a few areas in which we actually came out on top – our average of 9.4 turnovers per game and our 12.5% turnover percentage were in fact the best in Division I. Out foul statistics were equally impressive – 12.7 fouls per game and 16.9% foul percentage also amounts to a #1 finish in these categories. On defense, of course, this translated to Michigan being the best team in NOT sending people to the charity stripe, of course – on average, opponents went 8-12 from there against us.

As you might expect, we were typically a cut above on offense, and better than that, playing offense as a disciplined unit. Our 1.539 assist/turnover ratio speaks to that. We were also fifth in Division I in FGs made per game at an average of 27.8 as well as 9^thin shooting percentage at 48.0% and 11^thin effective field goal percentage at 54.4%. Our offensive efficiency came out to 1.135, good for 23^rdin Division I basketball. Our 2-point percentage – 53.3% - was 9^thoverall and our 3-point percentage – 37.7% was good for 29^thamong the over 300 teams in Division I.

Second, onto us specifically:

When I started delving into the individual statistics for the Wolverines, what I found, as you would expect, are many stellar performances even from those who did not see all that many minutes on the floor.  I have added a few statistics which are calculable from the team table to provide a little insight perhaps into how the team performed overall as well.

Here is what field goal percentages (straight FG percentage and effective FG percentage) looked like for everyone:

Obviously, as with most of these, the fewer attempts one made, the less meaningful the percentage would be because of sample size, but the contribution to the total effort should be noted all the same. You’ll note that, for most of the shooting –related charts, the green triangles here show the relative percentages. The pie chart above shows the relative contributions to Michigan’s grand total of points this season.

Here is three-point shooting for the year:

As you would expect, the best performance here among those who played substantial minutes was that of Nik Stauskas, but Spike Albrecht’s performance should never go unnoticed.

As for free throws:

Trey Burke and Nik Stauskas had the best overall performance here among starters, but yet again, for the few opportunities that he had, Spike made the most of his free throws, I would say.  

Rebounding was interesting:

Glenn Robinson III and Mitch McGary factored heavily into our offensive rebounding, and Mitch and Tim Hardaway, Jr. came away with the most defensive rebounds. In the bar chart here, the green triangles are showing offensive rebound percentages, and the purple “X” is defensive rebounding percentage. The pie chart looks at contributions in terms of total rebounds.

Assists and turnovers tell an obvious tale, I would think:

I put individual Assist/Turnover ratios here as well (green triangle). Here is part of the story of a disciplined team that works as a unit and rarely turns it over, and of course, at the head of it is Trey Burke. The pie charts here show the relative contributions across the season.

I went with the pie charts alone for blocks and steals so you could see how everyone contributed to Michigan’s defensive efforts at a high level:

TL;DR CONCLUSION:

Again, like many of these diaries, the conclusion is yours to make. Mine in summary is that we really did play like we belonged in that NC game.

OBLIGATORY:

WHERE WAS I WHEN THIS LAST HAPPENED?

This week, I wanted to take a break from statistics-based musing and stop to reflect on this coming weekend, when we will see Michigan do something that it has not done in twenty years – play in a Final Four game.

Granted, I am not the oldest member of the MGoCommunity, but I am old enough to remember well what I was doing and where I was at in my life around this time of the year in 1993. Coming from a Michigan family and having been a fan since I was a wee lad, these appearances were huge events in my house. My parents had a Final Four party in 1993 as well as a party for the Championship Game, which of course we did not win.

So, the question I asked myself may sound a little lame, but it was interesting to consider – How has the world changed for me since the last time Michigan was in a Final Four game?

In the spring of 1993, I was not quite fifteen years old and still figuring out high school. I was excited about the potential to get a learner’s permit in a time when all that was required in Michigan was proof that you lived in the state and maybe a pulse. In my bedroom, I typed papers on what was the pinnacle (well, not really) of computing at the time – a Mac Quadra 950 - and I printed them on an Epson MJ-500 inkjet printer.  I had an e-mail account and access to what there was of an “Internet”. I accessed these on a dial-up connection facilitated by Compuserve and through a US Robotics 14.4K modem.

In 1993, I wanted to go to Michigan more than anything, but it would be another two years before that acceptance letter which changed my life came in the mail. As for my sports life, the options for viewing were growing, but still comparatively limited. For example, the Tigers games which weren’t on WDIV were sometimes on PASS, and PASS was a channel that I had to beg my parents to add to their cable package, along with Cinemax (that one was for admittedly selfish reasons as well, albeit different reasons). Part of that package was ESPN, which was a single channel then, and not in HD (because nothing was).

On April 5^thin the year 1993, a rather awkward but unashamed nerd who had no clue at the time he would rise through the MGoRanks to help moderate threads on what is arguably the most influential Michigan site out there watched Chris Webber try to call a timeout when none were left and get rewarded with a technical. There was always next year, right? I was a forgiving soul.

So, here is that “next year” that I’ve waited for – 2013.

The players on that team which I watched on a 28-inch Zenith all those years ago are now hovering around 40 years old. I was accepted at and have since graduated from Michigan and even picked up a masters along the way. Several of the players on the team we will watch on Saturday were still about a year from being born when we were last in the Final Four, never mind played in the Championship Game.

I have, in that space, passed up some of the so-called milestone ages – 18, 21, 30, to be precise. Indeed, I will be 35 in July. In those intervening decades, I’ve married and am coming up on my 9^thwedding anniversary. I have two beautiful children who now watch these games with me if they are awake. I’ve gone from occupying a drafty room above the garage of a house in Saline to owning my own home. I have gone from being taught to being the teacher, at least when my employer dares to let me teach people statistics. The Mac Quadra and the US Robotics modem have been replaced with an iMac and Comcast Xfinity broadband. Fox Sports Detroit and the multiple iterations of ESPN have created a situation where I have gone from being forced to watch certain games if I wanted to watch sports at all to feeling tormented over which games I should watch out of the 300 that are on at any given moment. I’ve gone from wishing I could drive to cursing the lack of mass transit in Metro Detroit too.

Why this weird trip down LSA’s memory lane, right?

Part of the fun in the ride of the current team, at least for me, has been this realization that it somehow builds a bridge back to what was a relatively carefree time for me, as well as a previous time when Michigan basketball was at the forefront and in the spotlight. It was awesome then, and it is awesome now.

I see in this current team a youthful energy and flair, and although I am always hesitant to make direct comparisons of what are two different eras of the game, those traits remind me of watching that team back in the early 1990s. It’s difficult to make good statistical comparisons, but the energized feeling that I have when watching is definitely the same.

Whatever happens on Saturday, I would consider this season successful because I believe that, at this juncture, we’ve made the circle back and achieved that general level of performance. Further, I believe John Beilein has set this team up through recruiting for a rather nice string of potential tournament runs here. Without speculating on how far we go in coming years, of course, I think that Beilein has built a program that will be seen as one not to be overlooked as a serious contender when March comes around.

My parents even said, as I sat there after the loss to North Carolina in 1993, that they would be there again next year and to simply be patient, but I will say this – come what may, this is one weekend for which it is difficult for me to wait.