A Look at PORPAG for the Big Ten, and Its Relation to Michigan

Note: I know Brian mentioned it on the front page, and I know he linked to it in the sidebar, but I was intrigued with the prospect of a more Michigan-centric analysis of this sabermetric-ish basketball statistic provided here. I'm not a statistician by any means, nor am I a basketball expert, not even close, but I'll try to provide that Michigan-centric look at PORPAG.

PORPAG (points above replacement per adjusted game) is much like VORP in that it attempts to quantify the value of a player (offensively only, it's simply not feasible to gauge the defense of a player) by comparing their value to the value of a theoretical replacement player. The formula provided in one of the articles above is this:

(OffRtg – 88) * %Poss * Min% *65

The numbers are for the entire season, and this is the list of the top 60 players in the Big Ten for PORPAG (via the excellent analysis at The Only Colors, sorry that it's formatted poorly):

Rk	Player	Team	Yr	Poss%	Min%	ORtg	PORPAG
1	Jordan Taylor	WIS	Jr	0.262	0.882	131.8	6.28
2	Jon Leuer	WIS	Sr	0.295	0.827	120.4	4.90
3	Jared Sullinger	OSU	Fr	0.268	0.780	123.6	4.61
4	Talor Battle	PSU	Sr	0.286	0.939	112.8	4.13
5	JaJuan Johnson	PUR	Sr	0.270	0.866	115.5	3.99
6	Darius Morris	MICH	So	0.289	0.860	112.6	3.79
7	John Shurna	NW	Jr	0.256	0.731	120.3	3.75
8	Jon Diebler	OSU	Sr	0.125	0.861	139.1	3.41
9	Demetri McCamey	ILL	Sr	0.255	0.815	114.4	3.40
10	Blake Hoffarber	MINN	Sr	0.196	0.862	119.3	3.28
11	Jeff Brooks	PSU	Sr	0.211	0.783	120.0	3.28
12	E'Twaun Moore	PUR	Sr	0.270	0.831	111.0	3.20
13	Jordan Hulls	IND	So	0.165	0.753	128.0	3.08
14	Keaton Nankivil	WIS	Sr	0.172	0.651	132.2	3.07
15	Michael Thompson	NW	Sr	0.210	0.895	114.0	3.03
16	David Lighty	OSU	Sr	0.216	0.778	115.8	2.90
17	Christian Watford	IND	So	0.287	0.673	111.1	2.77
18	William Buford	OSU	Jr	0.232	0.733	111.9	2.52
19	Draymond Green	MSU	Jr	0.254	0.732	109.4	2.47
20	Kalin Lucas	MSU	Sr	0.263	0.778	106.1	2.30
21	Zack Novak	MICH	Jr	0.135	0.858	119.7	2.28
22	Trevor Mbakwe	MINN	Jr	0.231	0.729	108.3	2.12
23	Ryne Smith	PUR	Jr	0.114	0.563	139.9	2.07
24	Luka Mirkovic	NW	Jr	0.202	0.617	113.9	2.00
25	Josh Gasser	WIS	Fr	0.144	0.640	122.6	1.98
26	Matt Gatens	Iowa	Jr	0.188	0.752	110.2	1.95
27	Bill Cole	ILL	Sr	0.117	0.499	141.6	1.94
28	Mike Davis	ILL	Sr	0.183	0.777	110.0	1.94
29	Ralph Sampson	MINN	Jr	0.196	0.723	109.6	1.90
30	Drew Crawford	NW	So	0.235	0.734	104.6	1.78
31	Mike Tisdale	ILL	Sr	0.207	0.634	108.9	1.70
32	Tim Hardaway	MICH	Fr	0.240	0.707	104.0	1.68
33	David Jackson	PSU	Sr	0.187	0.736	107.2	1.64
34	Tim Jarmusz	WIS	Sr	0.095	0.579	134.9	1.60
35	D.J. Richardson	ILL	So	0.160	0.737	109.2	1.55
36	Lewis Jackson	PUR	Jr	0.183	0.611	110.3	1.55
37	Melsahn Basabe	Iowa	Fr	0.229	0.599	104.9	1.44
38	Aaron Craft	OSU	Fr	0.166	0.699	107.7	1.42
39	Mike Bruesewitz	WIS	So	0.142	0.514	118.2	1.37
40	Jordan Morgan	MICH	Fr	0.207	0.590	105.5	1.33
41	Durrell Summers	MSU	Sr	0.217	0.741	101.0	1.30
42	Victor Oladipo	IND	Fr	0.240	0.447	107.2	1.28
43	Jereme Richmond	ILL	Fr	0.222	0.518	104.1	1.15
44	JerShon Cobb	NW	Fr	0.176	0.571	105.9	1.12
45	Alex Marcotullio	NW	So	0.154	0.501	111.0	1.10
46	Delvon Roe	MSU	Jr	0.158	0.606	106.5	1.10
47	Brandon Paul	ILL	So	0.232	0.523	102.2	1.07
48	D.J. Byrd	PUR	So	0.147	0.482	112.2	1.06
49	Jarryd Cole	Iowa	Sr	0.158	0.566	105.7	0.98
50	Andrew Jones	PSU	Sr	0.137	0.765	102.1	0.92
51	DallasLauderdale	OSU	Sr	0.127	0.447	112.4	0.86
52	Stu Douglass	MICH	Jr	0.163	0.698	99.9	0.84
53	Al Nolen	MINN	Sr	0.190	0.443	103.3	0.80
54	Verdell Jones	IND	Jr	0.293	0.555	94.3	0.64
55	Rodney Williams	MINN	So	0.169	0.605	97.6	0.61
56	Tom Pritchard	IND	Jr	0.090	0.436	111.6	0.57
57	Evan Smotrycz	MICH	Fr	0.193	0.474	98.0	0.57
58	Keith Appling	MSU	Fr	0.149	0.529	99.3	0.55
59	Colton Iverson	MINN	Jr	0.228	0.449	96.0	0.51
60	Bryce Cartwright	Iowa	Jr	0.261	0.751	92.0	0.49

A cursory glance shows what Brian alluded to in the front page post, Darius Morris is the sixth most valuable player offensively in the Big Ten, behind Wisconsin's excellent Jordan Taylor, a future top-5 pick, and three seniors. Another glance shows that Tim Hardaway Jr. is the third-most valuable freshman according to PORPAG, behind Sullinger and Wisconsin's role player, Josh Gasser (this statistic loves the Badgers, they have the 1st, 2nd, 14th, 25th, 34th, and 39th best PORPAG players, part of this is probably due to the slow deliberate pace at which they play, and the fact that everyone's non-conference schedule is included in this compilation of this stat, so a team like Wisconsin would be given an advantage over a team like MSU. Still, Wisconsin's numbers are impressive here, near miss against Iowa notwithstanding).

Michigan's players are here:

Morris stands out as the headliner and his production is well-doucmented and very impressive, but Novak is a little bit of a surprise, with his high ORtg balancing out his relatively low usage rate (which is the lowest for all six of these players). Another encouraging bit is that no other Big Ten team has 3 freshmen on the list, in fact Ohio State is the only team with two, so this incoming class has paid great dividends for Michigan thus far. Hardaway takes a lot of shots and doesn't have a great ORtg, but his recent emergence and potential seems to suggest that he has and he will improve substantially by taking fewer and better shots. Morgan's also a bit of a surprise with how effectively he's played -- as evidenced in his game last night with 27 points on 13 FG attempts -- in overcoming his previous, offseason injuries. Douglass and Smotrycz are solid performers, and Smotrycz in particular will improve as his game develops a little bit and he gets more of a feel for the college game.

So what does this mean? For this season, probably not a whole lot. We know where Michigan's at right now; the consensus seems to be that Michigan needs to finish 4-2 from here on out and win a Big Ten Tournament game to be competitive for an NCAA bid. KenPom has this covered:

Basically Michigan has around a 15% to 20% chance to get to .500 in conference play, which seems realistic, Michigan would need to beat Indiana and MSU at home and Iowa on the road, as well as steal one @ Minnesota, @ Illinois, or at home against Wisconsin, and that seems to be a bit of a stretch. Michigan's played well as of late, and hopefully they can make a push to  sneak onto the bubble and make it in to the tourney, but I don't know if this team can win those games or make a substantial run into the Big Ten tournament.

The biggest thing that stuck out to me is Michigan's promise for the future. Yes, I know we heard that after getting into the dance in '09, and yes, I know we collapsed in '09-'10, but this team doesn't lose anybody from this year's team. That's incredible. Michigan is the 11th least experienced team in the whole country out of 345 teams, and all of this production is coming back with an extra offseason of practice and development. If anyone can improve like Morris did this past offseason (I'm looking at you, Tim Hardaway), which is admittedly pretty insane, Morris is one of the most improved players in the whole country, but a leap like that would place Michigan solidly in the upper half of the conference, if not higher. Looking at the PORPAG numbers for next year (keeping the curent numbers, taking out all of the seniors and assuming Jared Sullinger decides to go pro), each player's ranking would look like this:

• Darius Morris -- #2
• Zack Novak -- #8
• Tim Hardaway -- #16
• Jordan Morgan -- #22
• Stu Douglass -- #30
• Evan Smotrycz -- #34

Of course this doesn't account for improvements, regressions, attrition, incoming freshmen, or anything of the like, but these rankings are eerily similar to what Ohio State has this season. I'm not suggesting Michigan will be where the Buckeyes are this year, the Wolverines' defense is currently seventh best in the conference (as per KenPom's adjusted defensive ratings), but with all of the departures of senior talent from the Big Ten, Michigan could make their move and rise up to the top of the conference.

This is the biggest thing about looking at the PORPAG numbers (and obviously they don't tell the whole story, of course), Michigan's future is looking great. It might seem kind of stupid to look ahead to next year while this season is still in full swing, but next year is looking excellent for the Maize and Blue. It's been entertaining to watch this year's team grow and improve, and the stretch run will doubtlessly be as exciting as it was two years ago, and heck, even this year's numbers look decent right now. Basically this team has a bonafide star in Morris and a bunch of solid role-players, but the recent 4 out of 5 streak and the recent performances of Hardaway and Morgan suggests that they've made a leap in the improvement process. This season has exceeded almost everyone's expectations thus far, it's hilarious to read the season preview magazine that projected Michigan to finish last in the conference and only made a cursory mention of Darius morris competing for the point guard spot. A NIT finish would be a reasonable finish, a definite improvement from last year, and an NCAA bid would be a pleasant suprise. Michigan's built a strong nucleus though, and these PORPAG numbers show that Michigan's young players are playing well and the program is trending upwards. The rest of this year, and for next year and the years after, Michigan should move up to where they should be in the conference. Now is definitely not the time to fire Coach Beilein.