A Look At The Big Ten Remaining Schedules #4

Take four of a look at the remaining schedules:

This is long... if that's not for you you will dislike this...

Past Versions:

#1:http://mgoblog.com/diaries/look-big-ten-remaining-schedules

#2: http://mgoblog.com/diaries/look-big-ten-remaining-schedules-2

#3: http://mgoblog.com/diaries/look-big-ten-remaining-schedules-3

Current Standings:

Who has the hardest schedule?:

Below are the remaining schedules:

(Note: Below the game are my predicted odds of a victory)

Last time I started something new by associating a score with each team. The higher the score the harder the opponent is. Since there are 12 teams in the Big Ten the top team gets 12 points, and the lowest team gets 1 point. Any tie ranking all teams get the highest possible rank (both Michigan and Wisconsin are the 3^rdhardest team). Below is that ranking.

Teams get a bonus three points for playing on the road- so Michigan’s score for an opponent rises by three if the game is in Ann Arbor.  Below are the point rankings for each teams remaining schedule- included is an average ranking since two teams have three games left, and three have four:

Wisconsin has the easiest schedule left- but they play at MSU- so I do believe they are very likely to still lose a game.  The rest of the schedules are pretty similar.  And even though Michigan's schedule is tough- that is a good thing since we need to beat the top teams to have a good shot at a championship- and the games are at home- so that is good.

Below is a more traditional look at the remaining schedules:

Northwestern has joined Nebraska and Penn St as bottom teams- it's hard not to feel bad for Northwestern...

Thoughts on remaining teams:

Indiana: Huge win against MSU- now they are very much in the drivers seat.  If they escape in Minnesota they have two home games- which should be wins despite being tough.  If they don't lose before Michigan they win the conference- if they have one loss before Michigan that game become enormous.  If they lose twice before Michigan that game becomes incredibly enormous.  I think they should win all the games before Michigan- but tbeing a favorite in all three games doesn't mean that it is very likely.  I think Minnesota and OSU have a 1/4 chance of winning, and Iowa is a long shot.  Let's hope they lose at least one.

Michigan State: Thank god for that OSU game!  MSU is tied with us in the loss column and play us at home.  If they finish ahead of us they really earned it- but they quickly went from co-favorites to being in a very tough position.  Northwestern should be an easy win, but Wisconsin could also give them trouble.  I may be optomistic giving them 50% chance of winning in AA given their beat-down of us before- but it looks like they will come in on the slide as we are coming in after sorting some issues out.

Michigan: Glad other teams have their tough stretches to end the year.  The two road games, PSU and Purdue are must wins (as are all games) and road must-wins are never easy... The big game is obviously MSU.  Let's hope the game in EL was a low-point, because MSU losses have made it so that we have a great chance to leap-frog our in-state rival coming up.

Wisconsin: Their schedule is very easy compared to the other 4 teams.  Home games against Nebraska and Purdue should be wins (although Purdue could be tough), and at PSU shouldn't be an issue.  The game at MSU is huge.  If they win they should have a decent chance at a co-champ situation, if they lose all hope is likely lost.

Ohio State: Thanks for MSU!  With 5-losses they need a lot of luck, so they have very little chance of getting a co-championship.  Essentially they have to hope Wiscy loses to MSU, and then MSU loses to Michigan, while Michigan beats Indiana, while Indiana also loses two other games.  Seem unlikely?  Well so are their title hopes...

Championship Odds:

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Michigan still needs some luck!  It is Indiana's title to lose.  At least we have Indiana and MSU at home- if we win both all we need is for Indiana to lose another game (which may not be probable- but is certainly not crazy).  Given our huge loss to MSU they still have an edge over us- so lets hope we protect Crisler!  Wisconsin is in similar shape to us- except playing at MSU they have harder odds despite easier other games.  OSU needs to much luck...