Most of those teams are 4-8... we were almost 4-8 on a number of occasions.
Let’s play: “Put Things in Perspective”
There have been a lot of posts this season that have centered around Talent levels, Coach selection, Bare cupboards, New systems, The Freshman 15 and Adapting to players. Most of which came from one of two camps: “We like RR and are giving him time to hatch the Death Butterfly” or “That dumb Hillbilly is worthless and we’d be better off with Debord and gads and gads of ‘Zone Left’”.
I’ve personally been in the former camp especially when considering what the man had to work with. (And I’d like to also take this moment to give credit to all the guys on the team for really busting their asses this season. We have far too often criticized the talent level and without recognizing that every member of that team has more talent than any five of us put together.)
Well given that the season is over and I can’t find anything better to do with the time I dedicated to Michigan football I went searching from some information on teams in a similar position as our beloved Wolverines.
So looking at the schools that have shown up in the top 25 in the past 5 years (save SMU and So Miss) here are the schools that had new head coaches this season:
Georgia Tech 8-3 (8-4) (records in parenthesis are where I am projecting them to finish)
Texas A&M - 4-7 (4-8)
Nebraska - 7-4 (8-4)
Arkansas - 4-7 (4-8)
Mississippi - 7-4 (8-4)
Washington St - 2-10 (2-11)
UCLA - 4-6 (5-7)
West Virginia - 7-3 (8-4)
Southern Miss - 5-6 (6-6)
SMU - 1-10 (1-11)
Hawaii - 6-5 (7-6)
As you can see all but two teams should finish with a better record than our illustrious 3-9. That said take a look at the percentage of total offense, rushing, receiving and total all purpose rushing that was done by freshman:
Team /Total 0ff/Rushing yds/Rec yds/All Purpose Running yds
SMU /86% /1% /24% /17%
So Miss /63% /19% /40% /25%
Michigan /59% /54% /53% /62%
G-Tech /27% /26% /24% /33%
WSU /16% /23% /10% /16%
Arkansas /15% /14% /36% /40%
Miss /15% /32% /6% /15%
Tex AM /11% /39% /52% /59%
UCLA /11% /37% /33% /24%
Nebraska /3% /6% /1% /4%
WVU /2% /3% /7% /12%
Hawaii /0% /0% /3% /1%
As you can see only SMU and So Miss had larger percent of total offense produced by freshman than use. You will also see that no one is close to us in the amount of rushing production by a freshman. And only Texas A&M is close to us in receiving production and all purpose running yards. It’s worth noting that SMU started a freshman QB in a June Jones offense and S. Miss also started a freshman QB.
Let’s take a look at Offense ranks and strength of schedule (to date) for these teams now
Total offense/ Rank / SOS
SMU /86% /95 /63
So Miss /63% /19 /96
Michigan /59% /112 /10
G-Tech /27% /53 /42
WSU /16% /119 /35
Mississippi /15% /39 /22
Arkansas /15% /54 /7
UCLA /11% /109 /46
Tex AM /11% /69 /29
Nebraska /3% /9 /17
WVU /2% /61 /58
Hawaii /0% /75 /71
As you can see only WSU was worse offensively than we were. That said only Arkansas had a tougher schedule. And the two teams that have more freshman offensive output have a schedule rank of 63 and 96 and are at the bottom of this group in strength of schedule.
Looking at all of that information, I think it’s safe to say RR had the worse situation of all the first year head coaches. And if you look at the schools that really went through “extreme” offensive scheme changes like Michigan did
Team/ record/ Total / Rush yds/ Rec yds /All Purpose/ SOS
offense/ /Running yds /
G-Tech /8-3(8-4) /27% /26% /24% /33% /42
SMU /1-10(1-11) /86%/1% /24% /17% /63
Michigan /3-9 /59% /54% /53% /62% /10
Both schools had fairly easy schedules and aside from the SMU QB neither had nearly the freshman influence that Michigan had.
Bottom line is that experience is so very important in football, especially in cases where there is a coaching change. So before you go off half-cocked about how RR was a bad choice and should be fired, consider the information above. I think it’s safe to say that we should practice a little more patience.
It doesn't seem like SMU's 86% stat could be correct given the other listed stats for them. Is that right?
The other stats account for running backs and wide receivers, but ignore the QB. SMU (apparently) has a freshman QB who puts up crazy passing yardage in June Jones' offensive system.
That's right. They only rushed for something like 500 yards on the year.
Good, empirically-supported argument. I think this is spot on. The stat's plainly show that a program in transition is almost always a difficult thing to make competitive.
Many people have mentioned Georgia Tech when trying to discredit RR. I'm amazed we have heard no mention of how Michigan has compared to other programs in transition.