jswavel34

The Michigan team we saw in yesterday’s Penn State game characterizes the entire 2008 Michigan season into 60 minutes. Michigan played like “world-beaters” through the first 17 minutes of the game, sputtered on the ensuing first half drives, and allowed an “oh by-the way” score at the end of the half that lead to the landslide victory for the Nittany Lions by giving up 32 points in the second half and being held scoreless. Even as I sat at half with a 3 point Michigan lead, I was still very anxious and uneasy. I felt that if the slightest thing goes wrong in the second half of the game this could quickly go to H-E-double hockey sticks in a hurry. I didn’t expect that we would win the game. However, with the way that we played in the first half it is just difficult to understand why there is such a disparity between the first quarter’s Michigan offense and that of the rest of the game. This is most definitely due in large part to our inexperienced young players and their inconsistency but it also has to be attributed to teams’ adjusting to our offensive scheme. In the Utah, Illinois, Miami (OH), and Penn State games the offense looked very proficient early and after adjustments were made we were unable to establish anything in the form of offense for the most part. What is the reason for this disparity? Are teams’ adjustments so devastating to whatwe are trying to do that we are completely stifled? In all my years of watching football, I have never seen a team look so efficient like they can beat any team in the country and the next minute look incapable of gaining a yard or tackling anyone.

However, I felt encouraged by the effort that the boys gave in the first half and it seems as though some issues may have been solved this week in practice and progress is being made. In particular, it looks as though Brandon Minor will be seeing more time for the remainder of the season and deservedly so. Sam and Brandon being complements of each other will be a joy to watch in the future.  

Remember. We are still Michigan. These are still Michigan men. There has never been a period in Michigan football history in which the saying “Those who stay will be champions,” applies so well. Go Blue.

There is a site (http://www.nationalsportsrankings.com) where you can create a fantasy matchup between two teams in the present or past era and the game is simulated and a score and statistics are generated. I ran a trial of 1,000 games for each of the remaining games on the schedule and recorded the scores and amount of Michigan wins. Using the amount of Michigan wins, I calculated the “win rate” or the statistical percentage for the probability of a Michigan win in a given instance based on the results of the 1,000 trials ran (This was done by taking the amount of Michigan wins divided by 1000 x 100 for a percentage) . (You can run 25 trials at a time and it gives you the scores along with the average score and the number of wins for each team). The results were as follows:

* Home field is taken into consideration.

          Average Score

Michigan – 15.3

Penn State – 31.625

Win Rate: 3.8%

Michigan – 26.6

Michigan State – 24.8

Win Rate: 58.0%

Michigan - 23                                                                                 

Purdue – 26.1

Win Rate: 38.5%

Michigan – 25.325

Minnesota – 25.79487

Win Rate: 47.2%

Michigan – 25.975

Northwestern – 23.125

Win Rate: 62.7%

Michigan – 14.875

Ohio State – 29.175

Win Rate: 6.6%

I also did 1,000 trials for the Utah game for reference and comparison.

            Average Score

Michigan – 16.675

Utah – 24.45

Win Rate: 21.4%