this may be of some local interest
Alright, so, some updates.
First of all, yes, I realize that the rankings don't really matter yet. And I know we're pretty high in the RPI. But this will not stop me from watching the rankings, because, no matter what you say about early season rankings, it is easier to go into the Big T1e1n season ranked than to fight for a ranking during what should be a competitive Big T1e1n season for us.
Second of all, yes, I realize that, even if it isn't necessarily the best for our ranking, we want Big T1e1n teams to win, because it'll help our RPI in the long run. But, you know what? I'll deal with that later. Once the B10 season starts, I'll start talking about not only what would best help our ranking, but, what would help our Big Ten tourney seed. For now, we're looking at things on a strictly "what would best help our ranking" basis.
Because its my diary.
Oh, also, I'm abadoning the system where I put T's in front of teams that got votes and do have a rank but just aren't in the top 25. If a team doesn't have a number in front of it, go ahead and assume it is not in the polls but got more votes than us. For ranked teams, ranking convention is coaches/media.
So, what actually happened:
Wisconsin (only ahead of us in coaches poll), actually almost lost to Idaho State. This is... strange. Should hurt them. I'm just glad they stayed alive, because, well, we open the season against them, and I want the game to really mean something.
#22/#23 Davidson barely beat out West Virginia, which actually really sucks, because, well, otherwise, they may have fallen out of the polls, which would have been good for us.
BYU (again, only ahead of us in coaches), crushed Boise St.
Dayton beats Creighton in the battle o' rhyme by 18, so, although it won't help us get ranked, as long as we beat Eastern Saturday, it'll help us pass them in the polls.
No games of interest. None. Weird.
Miami beat up on FL Intl, which is of no surprise.
Tomorrow's the big day, here are the games to watch and where to watch them:
PRIORITY GAMES TO WATCH:
Obviously, Michigan vs. Eastern on the Big Ten Network. 4:00. Uh, I say we win. That's about all I have to say about that.
#21/#21 Ohio State v. Butler at noon on BTN. Battle of the Undefeateds. Could be good for Michigan's rank if OSU loses, but, well, its a Big 10 team. It could be better in the long run if they win.
BYU v. Portland. This one's late for us, 10:00pm, and most of us won't get it, as its on The Mtn, which is the Mountain West's sports network. A city in Oregon just elected America's first openly Transgender mayor (congratulations Mayor Rasmussen!), so something tells me the Mormons don't like the entire state. (Why yes. I am bitter about the Prop 8 loss.) Of course, this means I'll be rooting for Portland to beat their asses so bad that they don't have tax-exempt status. It's not unreasonable. They're a two-loss team.
Other games I care much, much less about, because the team that should win probably will:
Wisconsin v. Wisconsin-Green Bay 8pm BTN
Dayton v. Coppin State 8pm, Online
NR/#22 Baylor v. Prairie View A&M 3pm, ESPN360
Clemson v. SC State 2pm, Online
#23/#25 Kansas v. UMass 2pm, ESPN, ESPN360
#24/#24 Marquette v. IPFW 2pm, Sports 32 (Local Milwaukee Network)
#22/#23 Davidson v. Chattanooga 7pm, Online (PPV)
#25/NR Miami (FL) v. Robert Morris 1pm, No TV
The online games, I'm not sure if they're free, unless I've marked that they're not. You can find them on those teams' official websites. If you're really, really obsessive.
There's some hockey this weekend, but, just look at the last blog to find it.
Good night, don't let the Sam McGuffies bite.
So, I do a lot of schedule analysis for my own purposes for hockey, and, I was just doing something similar for basketball, and figured, well, why not sign up for an account at MGoBlog and let other people see my work? So, I hope to carve out a little niche here and post analysis of schedules and figure out what the basketball team must do to attain a ranking, and which other teams must lose for them to get one, and what the Michigan hockey team must do to advance in rankings.
Some weeks I might do Basketball on Monday and Hockey on Tuesday, but, that seems silly since hockey's heading into a break.
As a general rule, I'll only talk about the 5 teams above us in the rankings. Unless we're not ranked, in which case I'll talk about teams 21-25 and those with more votes than us.
So, a hockey mini-analysis:
This weekend, we swept Michigan State. It was awesome. As a consequence, we moved from #14 to #12, and cracking the top 10 is always nice. We don't play until the GLI, so, there's no way to analyze our schedule here.
So, teams that can affect us just by losing that play this weekend:
#11 Vermont plays at St. Lawrence, just on Saturday. St. Lawrence? Not very good. Not terrible. Just sub-.500. Vermont probably leaves with a win. Doesn't affect us.
A very important Saturday/Sunday series to watch is #10 Colorado College playing at #2 Minnesota. A Minnesota sweep could mean Michigan leapfrogs CC without even playing.
No games for #9 Cornell, #8 Boston College, or #7 Princeton.
So, the skinny: The best Michigan can hope for is Minnesota sweeps Colorado College at home and Michigan is #11 next week. There's a very off chance St. Lawrence wins, and, if both things happen, we may just crack the top 10.
Basketball is way more complicated.
In the USA Today Coach's Poll, we're a theoretical #30. In the AP Media Poll, we're a theoretical #28. Our only game this week is Saturday against a one-win Eastern Michigan at Crisler. 4:00, BTN. I'm excited. Not really. Should pick it up easily. And by that I mean, WE MUST KILL THEM IF WE WANT TO BE RANKED NEXT WEEK. A NARROW WIN WON'T BE GOOD ENOUGH.
This is the part where you skip to the last paragraph, unless you're a ridiculous die-hard. Trust me, you'll do it pretty soon.
I'll start with the non-ranked teams that separate us from the Top 25. For the rest of the article, I will list rankings in the same order I listed ours. If its only a theoretical ranking, there will be a "T" before it, and if a team's ranked in one poll and non-ranked in another, I'll mention their non-ranking. So, if a team was a theoretical #31 in the USA Today Poll and non-ranked in any fashion in the AP Poll, they'd be listed as "T#31/NR".
T#29/T#31 BYU: Two games this week, one against Boise State on Wednesday, one against Portland on Saturday, both at home. Neither team has votes of any sort, also, neither team has more than two losses. Losing to both? Unlikely. Losing to one? Not unreasonable.
T#28/T#35 Wisconsin: The Badgers (who we happen to open Big Ten play against) play tomorrow against a two-win Idaho State team, and play Wisconsin-Green Bay on Saturday. WGB is 5-2 (2-0), but, that doesn't mean I'm impressed with any of their wins.
T#27/T#26 Dayton: Losable game on the road at 5-2 Creighton Wednesday. Easy win at home against Coppin State Saturday.
T#26/#22 Baylor: Easy game Saturday against Prairie View A&M. Can't see them falling from AP, may enter USA Today.
T#31/T#27 Clemson: Game Saturday against South Carolina State. I anticipate a Clemson win. SCS is over .500, but, Clemson is undefeated.
#25/T#29 Miami (FL): Florida Intl. on Friday. Robert Morris on Sunday. Win. Win.
#23/#25 Kansas: Saturday v. 1-win UMass. Win.
#24/#24 Marquette: Saturday v. crappy IPFW. They're 3-5, which means I don't care about them enough to look up what that stands for. Win.
#22/#23 Davidson: Would you look at that, a real contest. Tuesday Davidson plays a 6-1 West Virginia team (and, while it's basically irrelevant, they're T#39/NR. The T#39 ties them with Florida St. at 1 vote, last in the poll). So, they could lose that one. Saturday, 1-win Chattanooga. Win.
#21/#21 Ohio State: I don't know why, but OSU has only played five games this season. Saturday they play their sixth in Columbus vs. an undefeated Butler. Butler could definitely win. I'm not sure they will, but they could.
So, the skinny:
We can hope for an Ohio State loss. We can hope for a Davidson loss. We can hope for a Dayton loss. We can hope for two BYU losses. If all of those things happen, and we KILL EMU, by my estimation, we still end up something like T#26/T#26, unless we get lucky. Next week, we beat Oakland at a "neutral" site (I imagine it'll be a slightly pro-UofM crowd), then we might be talking ranking.
I'll post Thursday-ish saying how goes it so far. Until then, good night, don't let the Tommy Amakers bite.