jg2112

Hello MGoBoarders -

I had a look at both the Spring and Fall rosters and focused in on the 7 early enrollees, to see what, if any, Barwis effect we can see on these kids.

Here are a few measurables of returning players on the fall roster, to use as comparison specimens:

Zoltan - 6'5", 231 lbs.
Omameh - 6 - 4, 276 lbs.
Warren - 6 - 0, 185 lbs.
Ezeh - 6 - 2, 243 lbs.

The early enrollees:

Tate Forcier - 6'1", 187 lbs then, 188 now.
Big Will - 6'5", 330 lbs then, 318 now.
Brandin Hawthorne - 6'0", 195 lbs then, 198 now.
Vladimir Emilien - 6'1", 213 lbs then, 198 now.
Mike Jones - 6'2", 202 lbs then, 203 now.
Vincent Smith - 5'6", 158 lbs then, 168 now.

And, the amazing body transformation winner:

Anthony LaLota - 6'4", 235 lbs then, 256 now.

Barwis has done wonders with BWC, Emilien, LaLota and Smith in 7 months. Perhaps LaLota will be able to contribute if needed? I hope he's not needed, but he's put on weight.

A few interesting notes -

Sheridan is 30 pounds heavier than Forcier.

Mike Martin is the same height as Brandon Graham, and 30 pounds heavier.

Brandon Herron is 6'2", 220 pounds, and Craig Roh is 6'4", 238 lbs. If Roh can put on 5-10 pounds of muscle, he will probably overtake Herron as the spinner at some point this year.

As an aside regarding Tate's "numbers," Colt McCoy entered school in 2005 at 6'1", 180 pounds. By 2006, when he started, he was listed at 6'3", 195 pounds. He is mostly listed on the Internets at 6'1". Tate is very close to Colt physically when Colt started for Texas as a RS frosh. I think the physical aspect of the game will be okay for Tate, it's the experience that needs to obviously be developed.

Also, as always, I needed to check on Mike Cox. 6'0", 208 pounds. Brandon is 6'1", 218 lbs. By next year, Cox should be able to take Minor's spot.

Kevin Grady is 60 pounds heavier than Kelvin Grady, at the same height.

Helmuth is down from 299 to 291.

All the O-linemen range in the 6'2" to 6'5" area, and in the 270-290 weight range. I think this is a little bit smaller weight-wise than, say, Wisconsin or Ohio State, but it seems exactly what Rich Rod's offense requires in O-linemen.

And finally, Quentin Washington is 4 inches shorter than Taylor Lewan, but 57 pounds heavier. The upcoming year of Barwis will certainly be interesting when comparing these guys next July.

Earlier today (7/7/09) BlueSeoul posted a diary where he discussed the utility of statistics and why new ones are needed. He used Martavious Odoms as an example of why stats don't tell the whole story of a player's effectiveness.

http://mgoblog.com/diaries/useless-stats

Specifically, he said:
____

Because what you're not seeing in those stats is the number of drops he had. You're not seeing the number of times he gained 3 yards when we needed 4 on third down. And you're not seeing his pathetic work on returns.

snip ---

Well, I decided to do a quick look back through the 2008 UFRs to see exactly "how bad" Odoms performed. Looking through the games, there weren't many drops at all (one definitive one against Minnesota where the DB almost broke his knee 4 seconds late). Yes, he had fumbles the last four games. One of those games was the weather-horrific Northwestern game. 6 in 4 games is too much - I'm sure he'd agree with you. However, what I consistently read in the UFRs was that Odoms was put into bad situations by missed blocks and bad throws.

Don't believe me? Here are the relevant notes on Odoms' season:

Utah - Out pass (4 yards);
Bubble screen (-3 yards, bad throw by Sheridan);
Checkdown (4 yards);
Bubble screen (4 yards, bad blocking);
Jailbreak screen (-2 yards, Massey no blocking).

Brian said "Odoms didn't get much of a chance."

Miami (NTM) - First play - Bubble screen (50 yards, "great YAC from Odoms");
Zone read bubble (1 yard; "if a read, Threet screwed up");
Bubble screen (6 yards, no block on LB).

Only 6 balls thrown past LOS, 5 uncatchable. The "worst QBd game in modern era of Michigan football."

ND - Bubble screen (14 yards);
On McGuffie's twirling TD, Odoms got a good block;
Bubble screen (9 yards - Safety read it, Odoms spun out of first tackle);
Zone read bubble (7 yards - thrown significantly behind him, leaping catch and pirouette);
Wheel route (34 yards);
Hitch (5 yards).

Wisconsin - Bubble screen (-2 yards, thrown low, taking Odoms off his feet);
Cross (8 yards, "good job cutting up")

Illinois - PA Flag (26 yards);
Seam (27 yards - good adjustment);
PA Waggle (25 yards);
Bubble screen (6 yards, Mathews whiffs on block);
Hitch (5 yards on 3rd and 2);
Flag (30 yards); Waggle flat (10 yards);
Yes, Odoms fumbled the kickoff after Illinois went up 38-20. Regardless, Odoms was a "hero" according to MGOBLOG.

Toledo - Out. (and btw, up to this game, the UFRs are All McGuffie, Almost All The Time).

Penn State - Hitch (First play - 1 yard, Mathews missed block);
PA Wheel (27 yards);
Screen (5 yards - Koger missed block)

Little Brother - Screen (0 yards, forced inside);
Bubble screen (7 yards on 2nd and 3);
Bubble screen (7 yards on 1st and 10);
Bubble screen (6 yards on 3rd and 1);
Bubble (3 yards on 1st and 10; Koger missed block);
Bubble (7 on 1st and 10; Clemons whiffs on block);
Deep hitch (18 yards);
"Odoms continues to prove himself the best receiver on team."

Purdue - Punt return for touchdown, and fumble on punt;
Bubble screen (6 yards, 1st and 10 - Savoy misses block);
Rollout (3 yards, thrown "crappily" by Threet);
Odoms KO return to Purdue 42;
Bubble (13 yards on 1st and 10 - had to come to full stop before ball arrived);
Bubble (4 yards on 1st and 10);
Brian declares "Odoms" is positive for 2009.

Minnesota - 1st play, bubble (8 yards);
Diamond Screen (-3 yards and fumble - "Stonum messes up - if he gets a block, looks like a TD, instead a fumble")
Bubble (9 yards on 2nd and 3);
Rollout hitch (11 yards on 3rd and 8);
Bubble (3 yards on 1st and 10; Rogers whiffs on block);
Bubble (-4 yards on 1st and 10; safety charged play);
Bubble (15 yards on 1st and 10 - "slippery little bastard" says Brian);
On long Shaw run, Odoms got +1 for attempted downfield block;
Bubble (4 on 2nd and 7; Savoy "weak blocking")

Northwestern - Bubble (8 yards on 1st and 10, and fumble OOB);
Fumbled punt.

Ohio State - Fumbled punt, 5 catches for 37 yards.

What does this prove?

Of the 44 catches that I have a UFR to analyze (you'll remember the WLA did the Ohio State UFR), 6 of the catches were made on throws that were bad enough that Brian felt it was worth mentioning because it affected the play. 12 of Odoms' catches were directly curtailed because of crappy blocking (or whiffs on attempted blocks).

However, on Odoms' 26 catches that were executed with even marginal competence by the QB and the blockers, he averaged 14 yards per catch. His average was pulled down 5 yards a catch by crappy throwing and blocking. That's a significant variance.

Also, you'll notice above that many of his catches were long enough for first downs, which confronts BlueSeoul's assertion that the stats don't show "the number of times he gained 3 yards when we needed 4 on third down." This didn't happen more than 2 or 3 times all year.

While Odoms' fumbles were disappointing, his receiving was not. In a normal year, Odoms wouldn't have seen the field. However, the experience will help him play even better this year, and the depth behind him (Gallon et al), Tate's accuracy, and better blocking will give the offense the versatility to use the slot more effectively this year. And Odoms will be a large reason for that. If he averages 14 yards a catch on predominantly bubble screens and wheel routes this year, I think the offense will be operating pretty darn successfully.