Eight games are in the books. Are your brackets screwed yet? I am sure anxious Memphis boosters lost a few pounds in sweat this afternoon. Not to mention schmuks like myself who wagered NO on the prop bet that no 16-15-14 seeds would win a game. The funny thing is as I was getting caught up in the game, I naturally found myself pulling for the Matadors. For about 20 minutes, I had forgotten all about that bet.
March Madness, where we prove that Jamie Mac has a heart.
That first highlight clip is from all the way back in 1999, during what was Gonzaga’s debut in the NCAA Tournament. What an entrance indeed as the Zags fell a few possessions shy of the Final Four. They’ve been a fixture in this tournament every year since, evolving from underdog darling to Final Four contenders.
And, during that time, the University of Michigan made nary an appearance in the NCAA Tournament. That will change in a few hours. We’re moments away from finally seeing the Maize and Blue chase a shining moment.
You know what? It feels freaking awesome. I’m not going to bore you with a preview as MgoBlog, UMHoops, Maize ‘N Brew and Varsity Blue have been breaking down this game all week. Everything you need to know you can find somewhere on those sites.
My quick take on the game is that Michigan has a better puncher’s chance than a breakdown of the numbers would indicate. If ever a team was on the downturn, it’s Clemson. They’ve labored to a 7-8 record in the final 15 games and dropped four of five entering this tournament. They were run off the court by last place Georgia Tech in the ACC Tournament, a result that caused finger pointing, multiple team meetings and surprise practices.
Clemson will come in refocused, but there is so much more pressure on them. Their fans are grumbling about hot starts leading to late winter fades. They were trounced in this tournament’s opening round last season. Michigan, meanwhile, is playing with house money. Nobody expected them to get this far. I’ll take the loose team with nothing to lose any day in March Madness over a team that’s a few bad possessions away from a self-implosion.
The Tigers have a ton of scoring and look like an imposing collection of talent on paper. But, I remain unconvinced that Manny Harris and Deshaun Sims wont be the two best players on the court. Trevor Booker is a great forward for the Tigers, but he was ranked more than 20 spots lower than Sims by the recruitniks when they both arrived in the same freshmen class. Tonight would be a nice night for Sims to prove those projections correct. As for do-it-all Manny Harris, he can easily outshine his perimeter counterpart KC Rivers and it would not come as a shock.
Clemson has not seen any zone since league play began. They have seen no examples of the 1-3-1 zone, let alone a team that runs it as well as Michigan. The Tigers are a good three-point shooting team, but we’ve seen the Wolverines use that zone to push teams out of their comfort range and force them to throw up junk treys.
If Michigan can contain Clemson’s long range shooting and value the basketball when they’re on offense, they will be in this game and have a chance to win in the end.
Besides, I’ll take Beilein over Purnell in a coaching matchup every day of the week. Will Michigan win? It’s 50/50. But, I have no qualms backing them at the window catching 5.5 points.
Go Blue and enjoy the game.
Here’s some quick links to get you prepped for the rest of the action tonight.
The former Big 10 Wonk breaks down the tournament leaning heavily on efficiency stats. I wonder if he's uneasy about his pick of Memphis after today?
#4 Gonzaga vs. #13 Akron. Line, Zags -14, O/U 133.5
Zag bloggers are asking who exactly are the Akron Zips. I’ll tell you: they’re a surprisingly deep team, that’s battled inconsistency issues, well, forever and are currently coached by Lebron James’ high school coach. Despite their depth, I cant imagine this team throwing together a perfect enough game to keep pace with the Gonzaga thoroughbreds.
#5 Illinois vs. $12 Western Kentucky. Line, Illini -5, O/U 123
The other side of the Portland brackets pits Illinois against Western Kentucky out of the Sun Belt. A preview of the entire Portland subsets reveals the Illini to only have a 33-percent chance of surviving the weekend. Without lead guard Chester Fraizer those odds appear better than most are willing to give. The Hilltoppers have become the trendy upset pick by all the experts. Channeling his inner Chuck-D, our Illini blogger compatriot don’t believe the Hilltopper Hype. For my Big 10 total bet on wins, I hope they’re right.
My take: Playing without Frazier did not hurt the Illini against Michigan. And, this is not the same WKU team that won a couple games in last year’s field. They’re hot shot guards have departed and I don’t know if the youth of WKU in those spots is ready for the March Madness spotlight. Of course, the same could be said about the Illini, whose main core is making its debut in this field. I like the interior presence of Davis and Tisdale a lot in this game. Eventually those jum;s shots that Tisdale appears to jump downward in will push the Illini across the finish line first.
#7 Texas vs #10 Minnesota. Line, Texas -4.5, O/U 126.5
In their comprehensive overview of this game, From The Barn illustrates the different perceptions these two programs and fan bases have of tonight first round game. The Gophers hope to continue a successful season. The Longhorns, meanwhile, are trying to salvage what has been an uneven campaign.
In an in-depth commentary and Q/A exchange I’ve seen, Burnt Orange Nation and Gopher Nation pepper each with back and forth commentary. BON also has the scoop on who The Wire characters are pulling for.
There’s an obvious talent disparity in this game. The Longhorns have a roster full of former Rivals top 150 recruits. The Gophers have just one, Lawrence Westbrook. Despite all the talent, the Horns have been prone to clunkers all season long. They don’t really have a leader on offense. Dogus Balbay emerged as a point guard, but he will not shoot the ball. Look for Tubby Smith’s defense to play a four-on-five game until Balbay begins to hurt them from the outside. Both teams have great size up front and if the refs let some of the action go, this is going to a war of wills all night on the interior. This might just be the most physical first round game on the docket.
#6 UCLA vs #11 VCU. Line, UCLA -8, O/U 136.5
There wont be many one-on-one matchups better than the one we'll see in Philadelphia tonight between Bruins Darrin Collison and the Rams Eric Maynor. Both point guards could be first round draft choices in May. It's a scout's dream.
The Bruins have some injury issues, though. Collison is nursing a sore tailbone. Drew Gordon has a shaky knee. Both appear to be ready to go and their situations, among many other game-day issuea are spelled out in Bruins Nation latest edition of Ben Ball.
Other than the Michigan game, this is the first round game I've looked most forward to.
#3 Villanova vs #14 American. Line, Nova -15, O/U 128
Playing in Philadelphia, the Wildcats have an obvious home court edge tonight. Its hard to conjure up an upset here. Villanova's best and worst case scenarios for the weekend are outlined by a partisan blogger. As for American, expect alums Judge Judy, Goldie Hawn and the chick from Ugly Betty to be waving the pom-poms.
#2 Duke vs #15 Binghamton. Line, Duke -22, O/U 137
Can Duke regain its March mojo? They probably wont be threatened tonight by Binghamton (although we haters can hope). It might sound backwards, but none of the guys on this year's team have experienced any of the tradional Duke March moments. The message out of Durham states that Duke is refreshed and in its best March position in several years.
You still have a couple hours to get down on onre of the more fascinating prop bets on the board. Will Binghamton ever have a lead tonight. I hope this wins easy for whomever backed Binghamton. At any rate, it makes the opening moments of this game that much exciting to follow. Duke is favored by 22 tonight. They've failed to cover in their last four NCAA first round games. Interesting.
#2Oklahoma at #15 Morgan State. Line, OU -15.5, O/U 136.5
Should Michigan advance, they could be in trouble against the Sooners. No, not because of all-orld Blake Griffin. I'm concerned that legendary bad ass Samuel Jackson picked OU to win the whole thing
Crimson and Cream (which sounds like an IU blog.....hey, fawkers, you can have Kelvin back!) gives us everything you ever needed to know abot tonight's game with morgan state
The compelling storyline with Morgan State revolves around the return to the NCAA Tournament of head coach Todd Bozeman.
For those who dont remember him, he was the coach of the Cal Bears when Jason Kidd was there. The club had a large upset of the two-time defending champion Duke Blue Devils en route to the Sweet 16. Unfortuneatly, Bozeman could not keep the Bears at such heights after Kidd left. Desperation led to recruiting violations. The punitive damage to Bozeman was akin to a ban. Finally removed of a show cause restrictions (meaning schools would need to convince the NCAA why they should hire him. Trust me, no school will do that), he landed as head coach of the MEAC Morgan State Bears. It's a nice story of redemption. But, if Kelvin Sampson recovers from his show-cause punishment and returns to the tournament as a head coach, I will biiter.
Predictions, sure to go awry
Hey, hey! Cashed the first three. But, I wont be throwing a perfect tournament as it looks like UW +6 is going down. I'll take the 3-1 start.
Three dead Cinderellas gets me closer to the 14-15-16 prop, only nine to go. And, good for Purdue to not choke that game away. That's one Big 10 win, six to go.
Which brings me to tonight's conundrum. There are three Big 10 games tonight, but I've already invested somewhat in their results. To I add to the pot? Do I hedge? Or, just sit back, enjoy the games and invest elsewhere? I like that last option the best.
*** VCU +8 over UCLA. I hate going against the Bruins in March. But, I like backing Colonial teams just as much. The Colonial is 10-4-2 ATS this decade in the tournament. Their tourney champ is 6-2-2 ATS in the first round. VCU is 4-0 ATS in three appearances since 2000. My favorite mid-major conference, my favorite mid-major player in Eric Maynor, it all adds up. The Bruins are not vintage. They have gone through long dry spells in every big game this season and have had a hard time finding its second half scoring touch. That's not good news against the relentless Rams. Maynor will keep coming at them and any scoring drought will put UCLA on serious upset alert. Maynor will outshine a banged up Collison. I like Larry Saunders up front going up against UCLA. He's a lot like Sims in that he's a one-man show up front. I would hate this matchup last year for Saunders, but this season against the young Bruins, I think he stars like he did in the CAA finals.
*** Michigan +5.5 over Clemson. I've documented Beilein's profit making numbers in March enough to know I will take him catching points against a coach who has never won an NCAA Tournament game.
*** Minnesota +4.5 over Texas. If Kansas State can win in Austin, the Gophers can win this on a nuetral court. But, I'll gladly take the points. I'll always take Tubby Smith in the postseason when people doubt him. I learned my lesson fading him last week. Sorry, Orlando. I think Nolan locks up Augustine and the Gophers turn Texas into enough of a rudderless ship to make this a final possession game.
So, yeah, I guess I grabbed some Big 10 action after all.
Happy March Madness, everyone! The madness has been going on for a few weeks now, but today the Main Event starts. May all your brackets be delivered from busts and the Cinderella you’ve circled makes it past midnight. I know there are plenty of folks stuck at work or without TV access. In between refreshing scoreboard pages and fuzzy video streams of the games, I offer some quick previews, links and picks for today’s afternoon sessions.
#8 LSU vs. #9 Butler. Line, LSU -1.5, O/U 127.5
This is a second round game disguised as a first round game. Both clubs were solid top-20 teams for much of the last half of the season, but after failing to deliver in their respective league tournaments were downgraded on the seed lines. For the Bulldogs it might be an unfavorable draw, but at least they get a rare chance to take down a team from a BCS league. LSU fans aren’t to stoked about being placed in the 8/9 game either and feel their Bayou Tigers stack up better than most of the other clubs on this seed line. One fan base is going to be even more aggravated in a few hours.
Can Butler make enough treys to survive? Can the Butler Way prove production again in March? Can LSU’s length and athleticism on the front line make a difference?
#8BYU vs. #9 Texas A/M. Line, BYU -3, O/u 139.5
This is a rematch of a first round game last season, won by the Aggies thanks to the hot shooting of Josh Carter. You can bet stopping him will be part of BYU’s defensive strategy this time around.
The Aggies were buried as recently as Valentine’s Day, buried in the Big 12 standings with a 3-7 record. But, they’ve turned it around thanks to the steady leadership of coach Mark Turgeon who finally has things going to his way in College Station in the post-Gillespie/A.C. Law era. With the Aggie fanbase, we have another groups of fans steamed at being placed in the dreaded 8/9 game.
Interesting shoot-around glimpses from a BYU beat reporter who reports that side-by-side, it’s pretty clear why the Aggies should be favored. Good to see the rest of the media is on the ball, debating if they should ask Cougar players about polygamy. Oh, mainstream media, don’t go changing.
According to one former Cougar, today’s game is huge to maintain momentum for the program
#2 Memphis vs. #15 Cal State Northridge. Line, Memphis -20.5, O/U 121.5
Don’t worry, Memphis, CSN forward Willie Gallick says don’t take the national perception of you to heart. You’re still a great team.
I’m sure the Tigers appreciate the compliments, but brown nosing and getting in their good graces probably wont help you much in this game today.
Many experts claim the Tigers as the best defensive team in this field. They might need that to come through this month as they still have not shed their reputation of having a less-than-stellar offense. But, consider that since freshmen Tyreke Evans was inserted as point guard, the club has had 13 games where they shot better than 45-percent. And, with improved free throw shooting this season, the Tigers have no qualms packing it in down low and playing a little post game. I don’t expect the “poor” offense to bug them much this weekend.
This game is all sorts of trouble for CSN. It’s an early east coast start for a California team. The Tigers are pissed at their seed. In the Big West Title game, CSN struggled often with scoring droughts against Pacific. That reeks of bad news going against a Tiger team who gets off on dismantling your offense. I set their longest field goal drought at 7:30 minutes today. Any takers?
#1 UCONN vs. #16 Tenn-Chatanooga. Line, Uconn -20.5, O/U 145.4
Twelve years ago, the Mocs embarked on the ultimate Cinderella run. As a 14-seed, they beat South Carolina in the first round. In the second round, they dug out of a big halftime whole to nip Illinois (way to represent, Illini). Ultimately, the Mocs bowed out to Texas in the Sweet 16, but it was one of the more memorable mid major runs in recent seasons.
To duplicate that feat this season, the Mocs would need to pull off an historic upset in the 1/16 game. If they want to win, they can’t lose the game in their minds first. Uh, yeah, it probably wont matter how confident they are. The only doubt is whether or not the Huskies can cover the large number.
Huskie fans are so confident they Moc like a Hurricane this morning.
#1 North Carolina vs. #16 Radford. Line, UNC -25, O/U 162
The drama in this 1/16 game is whether or not Tar Hell uber point guard Ty Lawson will play and how effective he will be. Scratch that drama as all indications are Lawson will sit again this afternoon. I doubt they’ll need him against Radford, but they wont live up to preseason title hype without their little point guard. Tar Heel bloggers are a bit down on the prospects of the rest of their precious conference. Naturally, they like the Heels chances if Lawson returns.
#7 California vs. #10 Maryland. Line, Cal -1, O/U 140.5
A Pac 10/ACC showdown will help determine which coast hoops it up better.
Terrapin coach Gary Williams is fired up and takes a few shots at his detractors, including fans who boo. It doesn’t sound like he feels that helps the team perform. Win or lose today, put me in the camp who feels this has been one of Williams better coaching jobs to keep the Terrapin ship from sinking and still making this field.
The Bears are an excellent shooting team. Can their usual team effort overcome the one-man show that has become Greivas Vazquez?
The standard Q/A between Sports Nation Blogs Testudo Times and California Golden Blog will get you set up for what to expect this afternoon. A Pac 10 Blogger Roundtable deciphers the chances of the entire Pac 10 field.
#5 Purdue vs $12 Northern Iowa. Line, PU -8.5, O/U 124
The Missouri Valley traditionally provides us with a March Madness upset or two. Maybe not this year, however, as the Panthers might just be the weakest entrant the MVC has put forth in several years. Purdue observers think so, and despite being in the traditional 5/12 upset window, expect a comfy 15-point win.
Like their west coast counterparts, the Big 10 Bloggers did a roundtable of their own to dissect the conference, including some insightful thoughts from Maize ‘N Brew Dave about coaching upgrades in the league.
#4 Washington vs. #13 Mississippi State. Line, UW -6, O/U 148.5
Expect a great frontcourt battle in this game with the Huskies Jonathon Brockman and the Bulldogs Jarvis Vernardo highlighting the action. Hopefully the refs will let this game play out and not shackle the big guys.
One key to keep an eye on is will the usually aggressive-to-the-goal Huskies maintain that mindset going up against Varnardo, who has more blocks than two-thirds of the 343 NCAA teams, including what might have been the highlight of the season in the SEC Championship game against Tennessee.
If facing the SEC Champion with an all world shot blocker isn’t hard enough, will local Portland fans come out to root against the Huskies? UW Dawg fans don’t think it will matter as they expect Brockman and Varnardo to cancel each other out. Claiming that UW has speed and matchup advantages everywhere else, they expect a 9-point UW win. The game might come down to which freshmen point guard, Dee Bost for MSU or Isiah Thomas for UW, plays better. The pair is familiar with one another having gone head-to-head in both high school and prep school.
Predictions, sure to go awry
*** LSU -1 over Butler. I think Butler is just a bit too young a bit too less-than-vintage to make noise this March. I've loved the Tigers all winter in the SEC and they'll nudge by the Bulldogs today. The line dropped to -1.5 when I went to bet, but I shaved the hook off. So, I have LSU -1 at -120 juice.
*** Texas A/M +3 over BYU. I think the Aggies are the better team and have enough defensive stoppers to thwart BYU's guards. I've dogged the MWV all season, might as well put my money where my mouth is.
*** Mississippi St +6 over UW. There's a chance I have fallen too in love with the Bulldogs based on what I saw out of them last weekend in the SEC sectional. They're coming togather at the right time. The inside presence of Varnardo and their thre-point ability will cause problems all day for the Huskies. I would not be shocked to see an upset.
*** Maryland +1.5 over Cal. The Terps were hot for me down the stretch. I'll stay on them in this one. Williams and Vasquez can squeeze out one more win. Besides, it's smart to take an ACC team over a Pac 10 team i a coin flip. Right?!?!
*** And, refering to my previous post, I took the bait on Over 7 wins for the Big 10 and No to any 16-15-14 seed winning a game. Yes, I am a March Madness, Cinderella Scrooge.
Pop Quiz Time: Which conference has put more teams and more programs in the Final Four in addition to never having a losing record in the first round in the last 12 tournaments?
Alright, I'm not one for drama, so I'll spill the beans. It's the Big 10, silly. A lot of these numbers have been mentioned throughout the week on this site, so if you've been lurking around you're already familiar with them. For everyone's sake, I will repeat them: In the last dozen years, the Big 10 has qualified nine teams in the Final Four, including six different programs. No other league can top the Big 10 in that regard.
At the front end of the tournament, the Big 10 has not been too shabby either. In the last 12 years, the Big 10 is a remarkable 48-13 in first round games. That record sounds great. I have no idea if it stacks up to other leagues, though. I didn't do research on that. Next time, I promise.
But, I don’t really care how that mark compares to other leagues. That's not why I bring it up. There are more important things than bickering numbers to death trying to prove conference superiority. Like, uh, investment opportunities, and I'd like to direct your attention to one that I've spent way too much time tossing around in my hoop-mush brain that last day or two.
Over/Under 7, the total number of wins by Big 10 teams in the 2009 tournament. Odds are even money either way.
At first blush, I thought about going 'over' all the way. Any thoughts?
In the last dozen years, the league has averaged over 8.5 wins per tournament. That's good. Last season the league had only five wins. That's bad. Only three times in 12 years, would 'over' on seven wins have been a losing bet. That's good. All three of those times have occurred in the last five tournaments. That's bad.
Based on that last fact, you can make a case taking the over would be a lousy bet. After averaging 10 wins over a seven-year span, the Big 10 has netted less than 6.5 wins per tourney the last five postseasons. The more recent trend within those numbers say to expect less than seven wins.
I feel comfortable bucking those recent numbers. With seven entrants, the league has its most teams in the field over the last dozen years. By most accounts, the Big 10 is top-to-bottom stronger now than in any of the previous five seasons. We have more league teams, coming from a stronger league. Big 10 teams ought to be able to outperform its recent tournament production. Right?
I can't get past that first round winning percentage: 48-13. That's four first round wins each year and more than half way to seven after the first round. Only once in this span has the Big 10 not had a winning record in the first round.
That was in 2006 when the league logged a 3-3 mark in first rounders. That season, Indiana, Ohio State and Illinois snagged opening round wins with Wisconsin, Michigan State and Iowa losing. Those latter two are intriguing because the Hawks lost to Northwestern State on a dramatic last second shot that sprung one of the tourney's biggest upset. As for MSU, they were the first victim of the stirring George Mason Final Four run, losing to the Patriots in a 6/11 game.
Based on the rest of the history, isn't it reasonable to expect at least a 4-3 winning record in the first round over the next two days? I think so. If the favorites all win the next two days, that's exactly the record the Big 10 will have after round one. The Daily Gopher predicts a 5-2 record for the Big 10 in the first round. Uh, yeah, I'll take that mark, too.
The problem arises after the first round. We've all memorized the brackets by now. You know that if chalk holds form, only one Big 10 can expect to advance as far as regionals. Michigan State, the only team with a top-4 seed, would have to reel off a Final Four run to eventually win this bet.
The Big 10 going over seven wins can be broken down into three fronts: Can the Spartans play up to their seed, can the league's two 5-seeds outperform those numbers (or anyone else, really), and can the remaining four clubs notch a split in their first round games.
I feel strong about the Spartans playing to their seed. After a Functional Do Not Play in the opener against Robert Morris, they would face the winner of the BC/USC game. They'd run BC off the court, but it wont matter. They'll be playing the Trojans. This will be a tougher game than whomever MSU would likely play in an eventual Sweet 16 match up, probably either Kansas or West Virginia. Sparty has already picked the Jayhawks apart clean this season. As for West Virginia, the Mountaineers don’t shoot well enough, brick a lot of free throws and its hard to believe their edge on the offensive glass wouldn't be negated during 40 minutes of classic Izzo-Ball. It all goes back to the second round game against the Trojans. This team is finally peaking with freshman phenom DeMar DeRozan finally hitting his stride and giving this club four legit double digit scorers. Still, the Big 10 regular season champion should be able to ease by here. That's 3 wins.
Can either of the five-seeds make a run?. Absolutely, especially if you're talking about Purdue. The Boilers will easily dispatch Northern Iowa in the first round. I hate to sound so sure about a game in the traditional 5/12 upset window. But, I tend to agree with the intimations that hint Northern Iowa as one of the Missoui Valley's weakest entrants in recent seasons. In the second round, I have bad visions of Washington's Jonathan Brockton being a load to handle or Mississippi State's Jarvis Varnardo blocking Robbie Hummel into the fourth row of seats. Nevertheless, the Boilers will have too much firepower and defense for those squads. Can they get by UCONN in the regionals? Probably not, but this team has as much talent and versatile parts as just about anyone else in the field. They're peaking as a team, and in the case of pivot man JuJuan Johnson, individually at just the right time. I think they find an extra gear in this tournament. They notch at least 2 wins.
Illinois, the other 5-seed in the Big 10 may be in trouble, especially without guard Chester Frazier. At some point, that will cost them. They're a trendy pick to go down in the first round, but there's enough left over guard play, combined with interior play from Davis and Tisdale to squeak by Western Kentucky. You know the Illini will find a way to make this game ugly and thwart the Hilltoppers up tempo game. That's what they do. I don’t know how much more we can expect out of the Illini. Let's hope they get out of the first round and give us the sixth win.
That leaves the other four clubs, none seeded higher than 8th, to find a way to earn a 2-2 first round split. Only one team, Ohio State, is favored, so they experts in the desert are trying to push me in the direction of something less than a 2-2 split. Let me make a case for each team.
The Buckeyes size and ability to create a physical half court game will grind Siena's up temp greyhounds to a halt. They wont be able to roll up and down the floor against Matta's club. He wont let that happen. Wisconsin and Florida State appears to be a coin flip and the Badgers have a lot more tournament experience. It's a tough draw for the Badgers and some are expecting a Champs Sports Bowl Redux, but Bo Ryan has a strong March track record. Leonard Hamilton and the first-time dancing in over decade Seminoles do not. Clemson was besieged by in fighting in the wake of their ACC Tournament loss and may have peaked way too early this season. The Tigers aren't playing their best ball right now. The President might like Clemson, but Kodos likes Michigan. I dont know about you, but I dont want to go against powerful aliens. In the Texas-Minnesota 10/7 game, I like Rick Barnes to out recruit Tubby Smith, but not to out coach him. Two wins out of this bunch is not unreasonable.
That gives us eight victories and a winning ticket on the Big 10. What does everyone else think? Am I crazy for taking this bet or not. I cosign this open letter to Big 10 players to prove the doubting punditry class wrong. While we're debating, here are a couple interesting prop bets that caught my eye.
Win Totals in other Leagues
The Big 10 win total is set at 7. How about the other leagues?
The Big East's bar is set the highest with 15.5 wins. The ACC's bar is 11, the Big 12 is 8 and the Pac 10, 6.5. The SEC is just 1.5, which is somewhat attractive because would anyone be shocked if Tennessee, LSU and Mississippi St came up with two first round wins between them. The Vols and Tigers are favored, albeit slightly. Conference USA is 2.5, so if you have Memphis in your Final Four, why not throw down on this over? You're already projecting it to hit. The West Coast Conference is also 1.5. That looks like easy money especially if you factor Gonzaga as a Sweet 16 team. The drawback is the juice. The odds on the over are -240, meaning to win $100, you have to be willing to put up $240. That's a big loss to absorb if the Zags can’t get out of the first weekend. I'd be crying like Adam Morrison if I lost with those odds. Away from total conference wins, the O/U on total wins by #1 seeds is 13.5.
What kind of scrooge picks against upsets happening
This kind of scrooge might. Considering how much we all love seeing March upsets, picking opposite that likelihood smacks of betting against the shooter at the craps table. That's bad karma. But, wagering that nobody seeded 14th or worse to win a game conforms solidly to history.
Here's the bet: Will a 16-15-14 seed win a game? I am salivating at this one. A bet of 'No' only comes at favored odds of -120. This seems too easy. No 16-seed has ever won a game and only 4 #15 seeds have pulled out a win. Teams seeded on one of these lines are 19-269 in the tournament since the current seeding process began. Is Vegas slow playing me on this one? Do they know something about Morgan State, North Dakota State and American that we're not seeing? I don’t know, but I would expect odds on this to exceed -200. This close to even, I feel obligated to play it and hope the overwhelming historic evidence plays out the way its supposed to.
My one worry is North Dakota State beating Kansas. The Bison are seeing a lot of love. Many feel the slipper may fit. KU has been victimized before under Bill Self. Our mid-major guru Jerry at the JCCW goes as far as placing NDSU is on his surprisingly short list of mid major upsets. Maybe I'll put some coin on the Bison and back myself up here. Otherwise, I don’t care if it makes a sound like Billy Packer by rooting against Cinderella. Besides, she's a bit of a Butterface anyway.
Who cares if Binghamton wins, but can they take a lead?
Isn't this the equivalent of betting the coin toss in the Super Bowl. Think about. Duke wins the tip and dorky Kyle Singler drains a trey. Do you have any chance of winning this bet if you're backing Binghamton? This bet can be over quickly either way. Duke is favored by 22 in this one, so you know the Bears aren't clawing back from a hole to take a second half lead. It's probably not relevant to this prop, but its worth noting that Duke is 0-4 against the spread in their last four frst round games. I'm just mentioning it, that's all.
Head to head wins
Just about every Book out there gives you the chance to take schools, heads up against each other, for most total wins during the tournament. I could not find Michigan matched up with anybody, or that many Big 10 schools on the lists. The most UM relevant prop out there in this regard is Clemson vs. Texas, where the Tigers are a solid -150 favorite to have more wins than the Longhorns. I don’t know if this makes me feel more sure the Gophers can take the Horns or less sure about the Wolverines chances tonight against Clemson. Or both. Both first round games go off at the same time this evening. I have to think I can combine a bet on the side of both of those games and find a way to insure myself through this total win prop. I have all day to figure out the math, so we'll see.
There's very little Bubble News to report. And, frankly, I am thankful for that.
We're five hours away from the Selection Show and the official end of Michigan's NCAA Tournament drought.
According to this morning's update of the Bracket Matrix, the Wolverines are holding steady and solid along the 10-seed line. The final at large bids in the Matrix are Maryland, San Diego State and Creighton. Lunardi, meanwhile, subs in St. Mary's for the SDSU. The teams that look to be just short of a bid include Penn State, Arizona, Florida and Auburn. All four were just one win short.
We have three title games going on this afternoon in advance of the pairings announcment.
ACC Championship: Florida St vs Duke. Line, Duke -6
A few things to think about when watching Florida State play Duke in the ACC Championship.
Michigan may hook up with the Noles next season. Both will be in the 2009 Old Spice Classic, played in Orlando over Thanksgiving weekend. Matchups have not been announced, and the remainder of the field includes Xavier, Marquette, Creighton, Baylor, Alabama and Iona.
Michigan will be relieved to know that all-everything talent Toney Douglas will be in the NBA by then, but the Noles will enter next season with a lot of expectations, and more importantly, a lot of talent. Rivals ranked this season's freshmen class as 11th best in the country. They've been able to ease into their roles due to the presence of Douglas and fellow senior Uche Echefu, but next year expect a leap in production out of all of them.
Added to the mix will be Marcus Snaer, the 11th ranked overall player on next year's freshman list who will start right away and has a Johnny Flynn-type game. That's three straigt years that Leonard Hamilton has pulled in a top-25 recruit. As a result, the Noles will have one of the best centers, forwards and scoring guards from recent recruiting classes. That's a nice core to build around once Douglas departs. This team will be a load to handle should the Wolverines meet up with them eight months from now in Orlando.
Northwestern bitch slapped this club back in December by 14 points back in the ACC/Big 10 Challenge. The Wildcats. Northwestern, University of. In Evanston.
The last time Florida State won a league title of any kind was in 1991 when they played in the now defunct Metro Conference. They competed in the league against the likes of Louisville, Memphis, Cincinnati and South Carolina. The Noles won the title in the league's last season before teams split into various ACC, SEC and Great Midwest destinations. The Noles had a stacked roster back then that included Doug Edwards, Sam Cassell and Charlie Ward. They dove head first into the ACC and finished in second place the first two years they were league members. It helped that the precocious Bobby Sura was added to the core in those years. They advanced into the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 those first two years in the ACC. But, other than a random NCAA appearance since, the program has not been all that relevant.
It's taken Leonard Hamilton a year or two longer than he expected, but it appears that FSU is ready to become the ACC player that they expected to be when they joined the league during a peak time for the program. One thing is for sure: in the immediate future, the team is poised to do damage in March for the first time since those days.
As far as this game, I think they're every bit as good as Duke. These teams played twice this season and for 30 minutes in each game, the Seminoles were the better team. The problem? In the first game, Duke built too big a lead in the first 10 minutes for FSU to come all the way back from. In the rematch, Duke caught fire in the game's final 10 minutes to earn a comeback win.
I think third time is the charm for Florida State today. They have the best player on the court in Douglas. They have ridiculous size and length on the interior that will create problems for Duke. They play great defense. If they can close out on the defensive glass like they did against the Heels, they will win today's game comfortably.
The Pick: Florida State +6.......the Noles are 12-5-1 ATS in ACC games this season, including a pair of covers against Duke. I've been gushing about this team through the Bubble News Chronicles. Hopefully they can pay off one more time. I think they'll win, but I'll take the points anyway.
SEC Championship: Miss. St vs. Tennessee. Line, Vols -6
The remaining drama around the final makeup of the NCAA field will center on the SEC Championship Game. For the second straight season, the SEC looks to send a champion into the field that otherwise would not get an at large bid.
The difference between Georgia from last year and Mississippi State this season is the UGA Dawgs were a last place team. The Cowbell Dawgs from Starkville are a quality program with a good team. They did have a winning record in conference play, so its not like they're playing above their heads advancing into this final.
There's a lot of anxious Creighton and St. Mary's boosters keeping an eye on this one. Conventional wisdom this morning hailed one of those two mid majors as NIT-bound should MSU pull through.
Last season, the Bulldogs bowed out in the NCAA second round to Memphis, giving the Tigers one of its closest games of the season. Expectations for this season took a big hit due to some unexpected departures (including Hansborough's Lil Bro, who transferred to Notre Dame.....oh, let the hate begin). They looked depleted in OOC play going winless in key games against Wassau, Texas Tech, and Cincy. They played well in league play, but were undone by an 0-4 record against LSU and Auburn. If just a few of those results go the other way, then maybe MSU is already sitting on a bid.
Nobody is really talking about it, but I think the SEC West ended up the better division this season in SEC play. Just my e-pinion.
The Vols got through a desperate Auburn team yesterday. Today they face another, but I think the Bulldogs inside presence and physical play is something the Vols did not have to face against Auburn. Jarvis Varnardo did not play great earlier this season in an up tempo game agaisnt the Vols. I dont think we'll see the same pace today. The Bulldogs will throw the kitchen sink at the Vols to keep this a half court game. I dont like the Vols in those types of games. The way Varnardo is playing, I dont want to go against him.
The Pick: MSU +6....the Bulldogs went 6-0 ATS vs the SEC East this season. They lost by 5 to the Vols in Knoxville, so I think they can stay within six at a neutral site
Big 10 Championship: Ohio St vs Purdue. Line, PU -6
The Big 10 continues to take lumps. Watching the Sunday Gameday special right now, they pundits started the show gushing about Florida State and the depth of the ACC. However, when they got around to the Big 10, they weren't as kind. Digger Phelps said Michigan State getting whipped proves to him the league isn't that good.
So, FSU advancing is proof of ACC depth. But, OSU beating Big 10 Champ MSU is proof the league is weak. I need some aspirin. The Buckeyes do, after all, have one of the nation's top all around players (a la FSU) and also have a high-end recruiting class (a la FSU) thats lived up to its billing as much as anyone else's incoming freshmen. Unlike Florida State, the Buckeyes at least beat Northestern, and also came within single digits off them on the road. Thad Matta is a great coach.
Yet, Digger Phelps thinks them beating Michigan State proves how weak the Big 10 is. What a tool.
Anyway, I'm staying on the Bucks today. I've had them in each of their tournament games and they won and covered both times. I have been impressed with Purdue's play this weekend too, but I just think this will be a low scoring game. I just like Matta in tournament situations. From Xavier to Ohio State he's always cashed.
The Pick: OSU +6.....for this Michigan fan, Indiana grad, this final represents pure evil. But, if the Bucks cover, I can take solace that I will have been 4-1 in both these teams games this weekend. If my rivals are going to succeed, I might as well profit off of it.
Who is the most worried right now in the moments before the Pac-10 and Big-12 championship games start and a pair of bid thieves hit the court?
Is it mid-major teams Creighton and St. Mary's? The Bluejays and Gaels are 11 and 12 seeds in the Bracket Matrix. A total of 30 brackets updated before today's action began. Creighton logged a seed in 20 of those brackets; St. Mary placed in 16.
Is it Big 10 rivals Penn State and Minnesota? Both are dogged because nobody seems to like the league. The Gophers played terribly down the stretch. That nuetral site win over Lousiville over the Christmas holidays kicks into gear for sure. Only two of 30 dropped the Gophers in the most recent straw poll. Penn State lost at lowly Iowa and were non competitive against Purdue in their final two legit March auditions. Will a poor OOC resume come back to haunt them? Like Creighton, 20 of the updated brackets give Penn State an invitation.
Is it Dayton? The Flyers might have seen their bid go right into the hands of another Atlantic 10 team last night.
Is it Maryland? The Terps received more votes than most of the above teams in this morning's update with 22 out of 30 bids. Does anyone of that support wither in the wake of another loss to Duke.
What we do know id two teams sitting in the field right now could be tossed aside if the underdogs when in L.A. and Oklahoma City tonight.
Meanwhile, we're within the 24-hour window of the formal selection and we can put to bed any notion of Michigan getting snubbed. The Wolverines received near unanimous support in this morning's vote with 29 of the 30 updates seeding Michigan. Twenty-six of those had UM either seeded 9th or 10th, showing a large line in between Michigan and the final cutline. Tomorrow will be a fun and gratifying Selection Show for long suffering Michigan Basketball fans.
And, they can enjoy the hoops tonight without worry.
Big 12 Championship: Baylor vs. Missouri. Line, Missou -6
Somebody is going to win their first ever Big 12 Tournament Title today. And, if its Baylor, somebody will also lose their NCAA at-large bid. Missouri endured a survival of the fittest test and a hostile partisan crowd to ease by Oklahoma State last night. Baylor snapped a decade-long plus losing streak to rival Texas. The win required cooler heads to step in and settle down the masses in Austin dealing with defeat. Its also causing some bubble quesiness.
The fact is, however, Baylor should already be in the field.......had they lived up to preseason expectations.
This team was ranked in the polls and returned intact from last year's record breaking team that qualified for the tournament. They impressed in November and December. In the Anaheim Classic over Thanksgiving weekend, they lost to Wake Forest in the finals after picking apart Providence and Arizona State earlier in the field. Upon their return, they visited the Paloose and avenged a loss from last year by beating the Cougars in a game heralded to have March impact.
When January started this team seemed a lock to earn back to back bids. Then, wheels started to fly off. They lost a heartbreaker to South Carolina, got thumped in College Station, hit rock bottom on a six-game losing streak with five double digit defeats. and wheezed to four losses in the final six games to close the regular season.
But, three wins in Okalahoma City the last three nights have put them 40 minutes away from their first ever consecutive NCAA bids. This should be a track meet all night. The O/U on shot clock violations is 0.5. Will Baylor have the legs?
Pac 10 Championship: USC vs. Arizona State. Line, ASU -2
In the USC Trojans, we have a similar to story to Baylor. The Trojans, based on preseason expectations bouyed by a core of talented returnees bolstered by the nation's top recruiting class, should already be in the field. But, they're not. Last night, however, they showed the type of passion against rival UCLA that had it been a more permanent fixture of their identity this season, they wouldnt be in this precarious position.
Meanwhile, courtside observers watching Arizona State highlighted another dominant effort from James Hardin, a long hopes for Ty Abbot Renaissance and Ambler Alert for Rihards Kusiks and a thankful prayer that the Sun Devils first half lead was large enough to absorb a dominant second half from the Huskies.
Atlantic 10 Championship: Temple vs Duke. Line, Temple -4.5
This hit is a done deal with the Temple/Duquence A10 Final already topping off a successful execution of an at large bid. Neither team makes the Big Dance without the automatic but. Both teams took out this sectional's top seeds last night. Does one of these teams getting a bid just swipe the bid out from underneath league rival Dayton? If so, that's a break even result for the rest of the bubble.
Duquense is a lot like Florida State in that they're led head and shoulders by a senior scorer, whose dragging a talented, but inexperienced group of underclassmen to a drought breaking NCAA appearance. The man to watch is senior Aaron Jackson. He leds the team in scoring, shoots close to 55%, leads the team in assists and second in rebounding. He can be a big time matchup chip since he can point and wing.
For Duquense, it would be their first NCAA bid in over three decades. Norm Nixon paced the Dukes last time we saw them in the NCAAs. And, if they win, the city of Pittsburgh will have remarkable placed three teams in the final field with Pittsburgh and Robert Morris, auto qualifiers from the NEC already there. They need to keep rolling threes in Atlantic City tonight to win and they've already hit 31 of those during the weekend.
For the Owls, there startegy is to let Dionte Christmas dominate. Even during a subpar game, he was called on the step up and hit the big shots late. He did. And, Temple advanced. They're a game away from turning an uneven season into another NCAA bid. Another helping of their quality effort they got from an assortment of role players can get them that next step.
Mountain West Championship: SDSU vs Utah. Line, Pick 'EM
Thanks to their run into this final, the Aztecs are finding themselves in a lot of final 4 in groupings. Can they stay in with a loss tonight, especially a convincing beat down at the hands of the regular season champion Utes?
Let's consider the resume. They're 23-8, 11-5 in league play, good enough for fourth place one behind a three-way logjam at the top. They lost all three of their key OOC games, dropping contests to Arizona, Arizona State and St. Mary's. Otherise their OOC slate consisted off patsies like Western Carolina, Hampton and Northern Colorado. They went on the road in those games which helps inflate that #31 RPI ranking. They have 7 RPI tip 100-wins, but a breakdown of that record shows a 2-5 mark versus the top 50 and 5-3 mark against the 2nd 50. Their SOS is an eye opening 38th, but a listing of their top seven wins reads Utah, at UNLV, New Mexico, Wyoming, UNLV, at UNLV and BYU.
That begs two questions. Can a team in a tweener league between the majors and the mid majors get an at large at the strenghth of conference wins alone? Is a 3-0 record against UNLV enough to vault SDSU past other bubble teams and into the field.
I say no to both. I feel the Aztecs need to win tonight or they wont make it. No SugarCoat. Just Epinion.
Big East Championship: Syracuse vs. Louisville. Line, L'Ville -7
Another fascinating season in the Big East comes to a close tonight under the lights of Madison Square Garden. And, we have two great storylines.
Lousiville has been the most impressive and have shown flashes of Final Four promise. No more was that evident in the routing of Villanova last night in the second half. Card Chronicle, uh, chronicled the assualt.
Then, there's Syracuse, whose played the about a dozen games this weekend. After battling from behind for six overtimes before beating UConn, the Orange needed another extra session last night to outlast West Virginia. Troy Nunes cries Uncle on the overtimes, but must have pulled his own OT session providing a one-stop shop reviewing last night and looking ahead to tonight.
I cant add anything else that either SB Nation Blog blog already has said. I love watching the talent on both of these teams and really hope the Orange have enough left in the tank to give us another show tonight.
Predictions, sure to go wrong
Thanks for nothing, SEC. Two teams that have been my best friends the last 3-4 weeks, cost me dearly today. Sweeping the board in the Big 10 and ACC games gave me an energy drink boost. But, foolishly stepping in front of the Memphis Freight Train. I still have to ML parlay going thanks to Binghamton's win earlier today. If Alabama State can finish it off in the SWAC this evening, remarkably I will come out pretty clean.
So, I got that going for me. Let's try and turn some profit with these:
**** USC +2 over ASU Tim Floyd is one of the best underdog coaches out there. Devils have the best player in Hardin, but the I'd take the Trojans roster because its better stocked. They'll have the home court behind them tonight. They grab an auto bid and shrink the bubble.
**** Duquense +4.5 over Temple I had a hunch about the Dukes all weekend, but have been too reluctant to play them. I hope I am not too late to the party.
**** Baylor +6 over Missouri If you can beat Kansas and Texas in back-to-back days you can hang with a Missouri team has been on the down tick for the better pasrt of the last month.
**** Syracuse +7 over Louisville Somehow, someway, the Orange will have the legs to hang in there. I'm one of those guys who always expects Syracuse to win, so when I see them catching points I have a hard time laying off. Louisville has not had huge fan support this weekend, but MSG will be packed with Syracuse fans. I give them a 50/50 shot to win straight up.
***** Utah pick 'em over San Diego State With all that bad mouthing of the Aztecs, you know I'm taking the Utes.
Earlier I said I would make a call on each small school and mid-major title game. I lost track of a couple of these the last few days on account of all the other action. But, with five going tonight, lets get that Magic Coin out again
MAC Title: Buffalo +3 over Akron The magical college season of the Buffs continue. I wrote Tuesday the Bulls would win this sectional. Mouth, meet money.
MEAC Title: Norfolk State +10 over Morgan State Hey, its the MEAC. Its time to learn a little bit about Delaware State's conference. Some bizarre bubble implications here, I suppose, when the fact the Maryland's resume is plagued with a bad loss to Morgan State. I'll take a stab with the big dog. Hey, its March.
SWAC Championship: Alabama State -3.5 over Jackson State I already have Bammer State, just to win straight up, on that parlay the Binghamton win activated. If ASU finishes this, it pays 8/5. I'm not adding anything else into the pot on this one.
WAC Championship: Utah State -1 over Nevada I admit it has not looked good for USU this weekend. But, they're here, and proved all season the best team in this league. I'll take them in a coin flip, regardless of venue, against anyone in this conference.
Big West Championship: Cal State Northridge -1 over Pacific Same as above. CSN gets revenge after losing a rather meaningless game to Pacific last week.
Semifinal action is underway in the ACC, Big 10 and SEC. Here's a preview. We'll breakdown some of the latest bracket updates in the Part Three later today.
Its already been a successful day for bubble teams with Tulsa being denied in the Conference USA. Ed Dechellis says thank you Memphis. So does Dana Altmann. In thise semis, we have three legit bid stealers hitting the floor. Do wins put them in? Do losses keep them out? We'll be discussing that in the comments section as the games unfold.
ACC Semifinals. Florida State vs. UNC. Line, UNC -10; Maryland vs. Duke. Line, Duke -9
The biggest news out of this sectional is the rising stock of Maryland. Did their woodshedding of Wake Forest yesterday elevate that stock enough to earn an at large bid? Or, do they need to find away to upset Duke this afternoon in order to crash the dance? Duke handled the Terps pretty weill in both games this year, including handing Gary Williams his most lopsided loss ever as Maryland head coach. Anxious bubble teams would like an order that, with fries, today for last ditch hopes to keep the Terrapins from stealing a bid.
Public opinion is swaying in favor of the Terrapins. B101 placed the Terrapins on one of his bracket lines in his update this morning, noting that yesterday's win launched their RPI up 10 spots. But, he does not have them in 'lock' category yet. The Bracket Board has also moved them into the field, but not into their plush lockbox accomodations. On ESPN Gameday, Joe Lunardi said no team helped themselves as much as Maryland did yesterday and moved the Terrapins into his Final Four In category. The locals are already punching their ticket in the aftermath of yesterday's Deamon Deacon beatdown.
Maryland started the season with a bang, upsetting Michigan State in the opening round of the Old Spice Classic back on Thanksgiving weekend. Georgetown and Gonzaga handed them their lunch during the rest of the weekend. By following that with a gutty win over Michigan in the ACC/Big 10 Challenge, the Terps did solidify themselves with a sporty OOC resume. Trouble began when the calendar turned to 2009. An ambarassing home lose to Morgan State began January. A uneven, at best, ACC season netted Maryland a losing ACC mark and a 'meh' 9-10 record since the new year began. But, late wins over North Carolina and Wake Forest gave the Terps life. Helping their resume is a 30th ranked SOS and a 7-10 record against RPI top-100 teams.
It's been a soap opera all season in College Park. Williams job security has been a hot radio loudmouth topic. He openly fueded with his Athletic Department through the newspapers. The team itself has gone back and forth from looking like a sleeper Sweet 16 team to NIT fodder. This team's obituary has been written a few times this year, but storylines are being rewritten again after a pair of ACC Tournament wins.
Maryland has really struggled against Duke both times this season. Will the Terps go even further with the packed in, zone defense they used the thwart the athletic Deacons yesterday? We've seen what a crafty zone defense can do to force Duke to shot treys out of their own comfort zone. Can Greivas Jazquez outperform the guards of Duke. Will they get anything on the inside? We'll see, but one thing I know: As a college basketball fan, I dont care what the stakes are, Duke knocking heads with Maryland in an ACC Tournament game makes for good theater.
In the first game in Atlanta today, North Carolina plays Florida State. Once again, the Heels will be without Ty Lawson. Coach Roy Williams just confirmed on ESPN Gameday that the toe injury will keep Lawson in his warmup suit for the second straight day. He went as far to say that if today were the Final Four, he still would not be able to play.
This opens the door for Florida State to continue its run in this sectionl and maybe even earn a top-4 regional seed. FSU has not played this deep into the ACC Tourney since 1992 when Bobby Sura ran the point as a freshman. They have their best player since then with senior Toney Douglass. He's one of the best scorers in the nation and is a great on-the-ball defender.
We're also on record alert in this one today as Tyler Hansborough is 25 points shy of the all time ACC scoring record. FSU has a lot of size, bulk and length and bothered Hansborough quite a bit in their only meeting this season, holding him to 8 points in a rare single digit scoring night.
SEC Semifinal: Mississippi State vs. LSU. Line, LSU -4; Auburn vs. Tennessee. Line, Vols -4
LSU and Tennessee are locks in the field. Their respective opponents today are not and look to continue their late charge up the charts and surprising run to an NCAA bid. Auburn might notch a bid with a win today. The Bulldogs need to win the league's automatic bid.
Are you a Bubble Team? Then Laissez les Bon Temps Rouler and learn the lyrics to Rocky Top. Victories by the chalk today in Tampa would knife down Auburn and MSU giving their bid hopes a lethal stab.
In the first game, a lot of league hardward is on display as the coach of the year, player of the year, and defensive player off the year take the court. LSU swept the Bulldogs this year, including winning a double overtime win in Starkville that continues to haunt the Bulldogs today. The win launched LSU's season while the loss hungover the Bulldogs who proceeded to lose five of its next six games to fall out of at large bid contention.
How focused are the Bulldogs on exacting some revenge? ESPN reported their morning shootaround was so intense and strategic focused that instead of the usual 45 minutes, it went for almost twice as long. For them to win, the need a big effort out of big guy Jarvis Varnardo.
In the second game, Auburn has finally dragged itself into legitmate bid contention. Many of the promiment Bracketologists place the Tigers today just on the fringe of the field, within their final four our categories. Partisans consider their stock still stuck nuetral. All those tides change for the better should they knockdown the Vols today. Indeed, Bilas on Gameday just claimed a War Eagle bid should they win later today. Kansas State and Syracuse have seen 22-win stay at home in recent years. Guess how many wins Auburn has right now? Yep.
The Vols, meanwhile, showed last night how dangerous they can be when their big 3 of Tyler Smith, Wayne Chism and JP Prince are hot at the same time.
Big 10 Semis: Ohio State vs. Michigan State. Line, MSU -8; Illinois vs Purdue. Line, PU -3
The Big 10 semifinals offers both the best and worst of the league.
On the good side, we have the league's dynastic power in Michigan State, with its usual stocked roster. In Purdue, we have another team with loaded with young and up and coming talent. In Illinois, we have one of the nation's most efficient offenses which is downright ruthless when its going in the right direction, as we saw in yesterday's game with Michigan. In Ohio State, we have the league's most valuable player, IMO, in Evan Turner and perhaps its best pro prospect in BJ Mullens. All four of these teams play great defense.
There lies the rub, however. Because of those defenses, and overall game strategies of these coaches, all of whom seem to derive way too much pleasure in strangling games into wrestling matches, we're just as likely to see a pair of games played in the 50s. League critics will use that style to bash the Big 10 over the head as it tries to make the case for seven or eight bids.
I would not be surprised to see any of these teams make a tournament run, but you can bet that across the nation, most will pencil these teams as losers next week.
Predictions, sure to go wrong
Late last night, the gambling gods finally clubbed me and I logged a 1-4 record. That, with the Tulsa debacle that just ended in CUSA, drops the March record to 32-27-3. After a solid March, I am reeling on a 1-5 run right now. Yikers! Today is a big day, so as always, for amusement purposes only, I offer the following picks on the above semifinal games:
**** Florida State +10 over UNC. Yes, the Noles hurt me yesterday. But, I love them back in the underdog role today. They are 11-5-1 ATS in the ACC this season, including 8-2 when catching points. I expect Douglass to star and the loss of Lawson to hurt in that matchup.
****LSU to win over Mississippi State. I am playing a rather expensive moneyline on this one, -160. Basically I have to risk more than a unit and a half to win one unit, but I think its worth it as LSU eases by the Bulldogs. The folks at the WWL leader raved at the MSU intensity and long shootaround, but I'm going to other way. That leaves them playing way too tight against the most talented team in the league.
***** Ohio State +8 over Michigan State. In a low scoring, defensive game, I like the do-everything Evan Turner, brawn of Mullens and late game shot making of William Buford to push Sparty to the limit today. It will look like they're counting baskets by 1 in this game, so an 8-point head start is too attractive to pass up.
**** Purdue will beat Illinois. I have a strong gut feeling that March will redeem this Boiler season that underachieved a bit due to injuries. I think they win this tournament this weekend. And, yes, I am aware the Illini swept them this season, but I think they get over that hump today.
**** Auburn +4 over the Vols. Why get off the War Eagle bandwagon. They have the best team defense in the conference. They turned the game around against Florida with their active hands, causing steals. I think the sometimes sloppy Vols will be vulnerable to that. I cant fade the team in the league thats playing the best right now, which Auburn is, especially when they're catching points.
****Maryland +9 over Duke. This will be a classic game and much more competitive than their earlier meetings. I give the Terps a 50/50 chance to pull out the outright win, so I'm more than willing to invest in them +9.