Jabrill Peppers Peer Group: 2005-2008

Submitted by alum96 on

Thought I'd take a look at the last 10 years of DBs in "5 star status" - which I chose as the top 25ish players in the 247 Composite rankings.  There are a lot of names so I only got through 4 years in heavy detail: 2005-2008.  14 players.  Here is how those players did in the first 2 years of their careers along with what happened to them down the road.

Obvious caveats are obvious - (i) every player is an entity unto himself, (ii) what a prior group of players did is no guarantee of what a future group of similar players will do, (iii) small sample size.

But... it should give us a reasonable variance of expectation. 

Year Rank    
2005 8 FR Started 11 games @  FS, ACC All Freshman, 67 tackles, 1 INT
Kenny Phillips   SO Started 10 games, ACL injury, 54 tackles, 4 INT, 2nd Team All American
Miami   Eventual Left school after JR year, 31st pick NFL (1st)
       
2005 13 FR Reserve
Demetrice Morley   SO Started 2nd game forward @ SS, 51 tackles, 2 INT
TN   Eventual Dimissed from team, CFL
       
2005 15 FR RB/CB hybrid - 300 yards rushing
Justin King   SO Started 13 games @ CB, 2nd team All Big 10
PSU   Eventual Left school after JR year, graduated in 2.5 yrs! 101st pick (4th)
       
2005 23 FR Special teams, 2 tackles
Jamario O'Neal   SO Started 2nd half of year after injury to another player, 30 tackles
OSU   Eventual Backup in JR/SR years, Arena League
       
2006 5 FR Started 12 games, 77 tackles
Myron Rolle   SO Starter, 67 tackles
FSU   Eventual Played 3 years, 207th pick (6th round), Rhodes Scholar
       
2006 11 FR Started 12 games @ FS, 62 tackles, Freshman of the Year
Taylor Mays   SO Starter, 65 tackles, 3rd Team All American
USC   Eventual Stayed all 4 years, 49th pick (2nd round)
       
2006 20 FR Special teams in 7 games at USC, transferred
Antwine Perez   SO Started 2 games @ FS, 24 tackles
Maryland (USC)   Eventual Had a good senior year but was undrafted
       
2007 3 FR Started 12 games, 86 tackles, SEC Freshman of the Year
Eric Berry   SO Starter, 72 tackles, 7 INTs, SEC Defensive Player of Year
TN   Eventual Left school after JR year, 5th pick NFL (1st)
       
2007 16 FR Turned into a WR
Ron Johnson   SO  
USC   Eventual  
       
2007 25 FR Played 4 game as a FR, suspended in Dec. Transferred to 
Eugene Clifford   SO Tennessee State
OSU   Eventual Undrafted, cup of coffee with Ravens
       
2008 4 FR Part time player, 48 tackles
Will Hill   SO 42 tackles
UF   Eventual Left UF early, undrafted, but some NFL time despite a 
      litany of issues
2008 6 FR Started 4 games (played 13), 41 tackles
Patrick Peterson   SO 52 tackles, 2nd Team All SEC
LSU   Eventual Left school after JR year, 5th pick NFL (1st)
       
2008 25 FR Started 6 games @ CB (played 13), 30 tackles
Brandon Harris   SO Starter, 58 tackles, 3rd Team All American
Miami   Eventual Left school after JR year, 60th pick NFL (2nd)
       
2008 26 FR Switched to WR, 2 catches
BJ Scott   SO Redshirted
Bama   Eventual Converted back to DB, transferred to South Alabama, undrafted
       

 

Quick analysis:

  • STUD level:  6* of 14 (42%*) - Phillips, Mays, Berry, Peterson, Harris, Rolle
  • UNDERACHIEVER:   5 of 14 (36%) - Morley, O'Neil, Perez, Clifford, Scott
  • WR: 1 of 14 (7%) - Johnson
  • ABOVE AVERAGE college player: 2 of 14 (14%) - King**, Hill

It is interesting how this group panned out - there were not a lot of just "good college players" like I expected when a 5 star does not fully pan out - i.e. he was not "all that" but ended up being a solid CFB player.   Instead most of these guys were elite... or bombed out.  A few guys like Hill and Morley seemed like they could have been better as well but had off the field issues - which does not seem to pertain to Peppers (but I guess we never really know do we?)

Also every guy who was "stud" or "above average" except for Mays (7 of 8, 88%) left after their JR year.  So if Peppers is anywhere near the hype, it would be unrealistic to expect more than 2 year more from him at UM.  Which makes the freshman year injury that much more stinky.

One other note as I went through these; it felt like a lot more of this group turned into safeties than corners.  And there were a lot less INTs than I expected from this group in general outside Eric Berry.

 

* I put Rolle in STUD level despite the NFL draft placement because as I recall he wanted to study to be a doctor and that put off some teams with the whole Rhodes Scholar thing (I think it required him to take a year off).

** Torn on putting King in stud category but decided to throw him in above average

 

Other names:

  • 2009 - Craig Loston (9), Dre Kirkpatrick (13), Branden Smith (19), Greg Reid (23), Darius Winston (24)
  • 2010 - Keenan Allen (10), Lamarcus Joyner (12), Matt Elam (15), Trovon Reed (23)
  • 2011 - Karlos Williams (4), Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (7)

Comments

alum96

March 6th, 2015 at 4:01 PM ^

I dont think the variance between someone rated #3 in the country and #8 means anything.  It's guys on couches guessing. 

#6 and #73?  Yes there would be an assumed difference in projection but even then not by that much.  #73 and #267 - yes a difference there.

DavidP814

March 6th, 2015 at 5:25 PM ^

There is a difference between the Top 3-5ish guys and the bottom half of the Top 25.  Just look at those Top 10 names.  Eric Berry. Patrick Peterson (then Johnson), Myron Rolle, Will Hill.  I knew all of those names before they ever stepped on a college football field.  And while I follow recruiting fairly closely, I'm not to the level of the pay-site subscriber/Twitter follower guys out there.  Those super-duper stars--and Peppers is in that league--are just different from your "average" 5-stars.

Antwine Perez?  BJ Scott?  Demetrice Morley?  I never heard of those guys in high school.  Peppers' peer group is the Petersons (Adrian and Patrick), Fournette, Berry, etc.  Antwine Perez is not in that group.

alum96

March 6th, 2015 at 11:22 PM ^

No, I disagree again.  You are cherry picking the top guys and guys who made it out of the top 10 to the NFL so of course are household names.  It's reverse engineering.

Tell me which guys below you "know about" from this list, despite their top 10 overall rank.

2005

  • #5 - Fred Rouse WR FSU
  • #7 - Demarcus Granger DT OSU
  • #9 - Reginald Youngblood OT Miami

2006

  • #3 - Vidal Hazelton WR USC
  • #7 - Mitch Mustain QB Ark/USC
  • #8 - Sam Young OT ND
  • #10 - Stafon Johnson RB USC

 

Now tell  me you havent heard of these guys who were 15 to 35 who now are somehow a notch below... i.e. "low 5 stars"

2005

  • #22 - DeSean Jackson WR Cal
  • #30 - Brian Cushing LB USC
  • #32 - Darren McFadden RB Arkansas

2006

  • #16 - Tim Tebow QB UF
  • #18 - CJ Spiller RB Clemson
  • #19 - DeMarco Murray RB OK
  • #26 - LeSean McCoy RB Miami
  • #32 - Brandon Spikes LB UF

 

I could go year by year but you get the point.

You are saying "Cmon man Antwine Perez!? How dare you compare him to Jabrill when CJ Miller and DeMarco Murray were in the 2 slots ahead of him and McCcoy 6 spots behind."

Yes he was rated top 5 but the difference between 13 and 5 is negligble.

Gucci Mane

March 7th, 2015 at 9:21 AM ^

Not sure if it matters, but would have known almost all of the top 5 ranked players 2009-present. I didn't follow recruiting much before rich rod. There is no doubt you listed people in a lower peer group than peppers. People who do not even follow recruiting knew about peppers before he even saw the field. His peer group is not only top 5, but more specifically guys who recieved extensive media coverage. Out of that list of guys you cherry picked becuAse they ended up being successful, only Tebow could be considered in Peppers peer group, as Tebow received tons of hype and attention as a high schooler, ESPN even had an hour long special on him.

MGoStrength

March 7th, 2015 at 4:58 PM ^

Recruiting hype and coverage has grown every year so every year's top guys are more "household names" than the previous year.  I'm not sure what hype and media coverage has to do with anything anyways.

turd ferguson

March 8th, 2015 at 10:09 PM ^

I agree with the critique that there's a big difference between the top few guys and everyone else but for a different reason.  Think about a bell curve.  The top few guys tend to be extreme outliers, standard deviations removed from the rest of the distribution.  Even as you get into the middle of five-star territory, you're getting back into normal human range.  If I remember correctly, Peppers ended up as the #2/#3 recruit in the country.  In my mind, that's in the range of the potentially wild outliers, not just the crazy-good prospects that you'll get lower in the five-star range.

DavidP814

March 9th, 2015 at 2:07 PM ^

This is 1,000% right--essentially what I was trying to say, except I said it much less eloquently and/or clearly.  The difference between #1-5 and #15-#25 in something like a 247 composite rating is: for those top few guys, everyone rating the guy sees an All-American/Heisman-level star.  The "other" 5-star guys land a little lower b/c usually there's 1+ rating service who sees them and says--"Yeah, really good, but not sure-fire 1st round draft pick/All-Pro good."

The level of success of those Top 4-5 guys really highlights the power of universal consensus.  If everyone and their mother says, "Heisman-caliber" when they watch a guy play, the "everyone" is usually right.

Wolfman

March 6th, 2015 at 5:21 PM ^

As one who watched many of his games live while he was in high school I can tell you the kid had the goods. However, he was injured in his jr. year while being rated the no.1 cb for the next class.  Due to injury, they thought he'd be playing mostly wr - truth is he played both his sr. yr - and they immediately moved him up to no.1 receiver in the nation. Now what kind of fucking logic dictates that from supposed experts?  BTW, he was on an alway run oriented Big Red football squad. The last time they had what was a perceived passing game Earl Morrall was pulling the trigger for the squad in the 50s.

Double-D

March 7th, 2015 at 2:00 AM ^

He has a combination of freakish talent and an even better work ethic with drive and confidence. He is the type of leader and player who will make those around him better. His confidence will permeate the team. I can't wait to see him at safety. He has a high football IQ and great natural instincts and closing speed on run plays. He will quickly learn the passing schemes and his make up speed will help his lack of experience. He will effect the flow of the game both subtle and highly visible in game changing style. All who love Michigan Football are going to truly enjoy watching him in the winged helmet. Now I'm drunk and I am going to bed.

MGoStrength

March 7th, 2015 at 3:56 PM ^

One thing Peppers has going for him that I'm guessing only Rolle can probably match is that he's a special kid off the field too.  He's really smart and doesn't seem like the type to get involved in off-the-field issues, which IMO makes him much less likely to flame out.  Despite being supremely talented he remains a humble kid and hungry for success.  And, the only way I see him staying after his junior year is if he has more injuries, doesn't have the success he expects, or the team is on the verge of turning a corner for a very good year his senior year.  Otherwise, he's probably gonzo, which isn't a bad thing because it means he's had 2 really good years, which I'll take.

bacon

March 7th, 2015 at 4:22 PM ^

Peppers is going to be a stud. I don't have any data necessarily to back that up, but I'm going with that hypothesis until proven otherwise.