I agree w/ everything minus Wisco. Also, I don't predict the game.
delware state are some beasts
Just for the sheer chaos of it all, I earnestly hope this happens.
Death. (as in this topic needs to die. not as in Sheridan.)
I was originally predicting seven or eight wins, but after rewatching some of the spring game, I'm saying six even. The defense is way too big a question mark, and I'm honestly not sure how good the offense is actually going to be.
Tate looked good and accurate and all, but let's see what happens when full QB contact is allowed.
And he was playing against 2nd and 3rd string guys. We won't face that bad of a D all year except for Delaware St.
no delware state is sweet
Wait, I thought we were predicting how many different prediction posts there were going to be.
Yeah, I know, I’m the "basketball guy" at UMGoBlue.com, not one of the football guys, but I’m a UM football fan as well. Every year, I make my predictions for the upcoming UM football season, and most of the time I get pretty close. Occasionally I’m too optimistic (2007: predicted = 11-1, actual = 8-4), and occasionally I’m too pessimistic (2006: predicted = 7-5, actual = 11-1), but usually I’m optimistic and the Wolverines reward my optimism. Then there was last season. I predicted a 4-8 season, and I was the only person I knew who was predicting a losing season. I expected a few raised eyebrows, but I wasn’t prepared for the reaction I got. I got blasted for it. I never expected to get hate mail, but I did. Somehow, people thought that my prediction would somehow turn a good season into a bad one. Sorry, but I don’t have that kind of power.
As we all know, Michigan had their worst season ever (3-9), which is even worse than I had predicted. I took no joy from being (close to) right. I would have been overjoyed to have been proven wrong, and to have watched UM go 8-4 or something. Instead, it was like watching a slow-motion car crash.
So, how did I do it? Was it very careful analysis of all the players and how they would fit in the new schemes? Nope, it was just a matter of looking at the schedule and going with my gut feelings about each matchup. And that’s what I’m doing again for this season. Sure, I think UM will be (greatly) improved over last year. Sure, I think that all the players will be much more comfortable in the new schemes. Yeah, we just barely missed winning some games last season that we could win this season. But even taking all that into account, I still don’t have a very good feeling about the upcoming season. Maybe once I see the Rich Rodriguez Experiment succeed for a whole season, I’ll start to get some of my old optimism back, but for now, I’m still thinking “rebuilding”.
Anyway, here are my predictions for the 2009 season:
Western Michigan - W (They are a MAC team, after all)
Notre Dame - L (Closer than last year, but still a loss)
Eastern Michigan - W (Finally, an easy win)
Indiana - W (IU should finish last in the Big Ten)
at Michigan State - L (Maybe at home, but not on the road)
at Iowa - L (A very tough place to win)
Delaware State - W (A much-needed breather)
Penn State - L (PSU is just too good this year)
at Illinois - L (Too much Juice Williams)
Purdue - W (Keeping the bowl dream alive)
at Wisconsin - L (Another tough place to win)
Ohio State - L (Improved, but not enough)
I think UM will end up 5-7, in 8th place in the Big Ten, with no bowl game again.
Of the 7 losses, 2 of them might turn to wins: at Illinois and at Wisconsin. If UM can win either of them, then they might sneak into a lower-tier bowl game.
I would agree with your analysis, except that there's chance in football. I see only two wins that we could have a good chance of losing, while we could spring a lucky upset on MSU, Notre Dame, Illinois, or Wisconsin. All told, I'm thinking 6-6. If we had our 2007 defense back, it'd be more like 8-4, but I don't see that happening.
If we end up 5-7 (or worse), I will give you 300 mgopoints points, which is, like, worth a lot.
Poster has it: 8-4 is right.
I like your enthusiasm, but ... I think 6-6 is more likely. I've predicted 7-5 below, but I think with still so much inexperience, we'll lose a couple games we *should* win. And with so much talent, we'll win one game we *should* lose.
WMU: I hope we view this game accurately as a game we could very well lose. The Broncos are better than the Rockets, and we all know what happened in the Big House against Toledo last season. Still, I predict a WIN.
ND: We can definitely win this game b/c Charlie Weiss is their head coach. 'Nuf said. WIN.
EMU: I don't think Ron English pulls a Tommy Amaker here. We get a win, though closer than TwoFitty predicts. WIN.
INDIANA: Although we're not great, they're not greater. WIN.
@MSU: We won't be MSU because it's our first road game of the season, it's a rivalry we don't respect yet, and we're both breaking in new quarterbacks (so that's a break-even argument). Their defense keeps them in it, their crowd fuels the enthusiasm until their offense scores enough points to beat us. LOSS.
@IOWA: We CAN beat Iowa, but it will be VERY tough. They'll be better than MSU, but may overlook us after a loss (or two, if I'm wrong about one of our first four). I predict us going down on the road offense and defense. LOSS.
DE-STATE: We better not lose. WIN.
PSU: Despite all the Terrelle Pryor hype, PSU and ILL have the best QBs in the conference. We get owned. LOSS.
@ILL: Unless the Illini are on a downward spiral as a program (and I don't think they are), they will be strong and we'll be playing in their house. We'll be playing better football by this point in the season, so I think we can give them a fight. But I think they find a way to win. LOSS.
PUR: Yes, we get revenge. WIN.
@WISC: Is it just me, or are they getting worse each year? I think we actually pull off an upset here because we're on the upswing and they are coming unglued as a program. WIN.
THE GAME: With apologies to all who don't make predictions for The Game, I think we lose this one. But I'll be cheering my butt off for a long-overdue win for the Maize 'N Blue. Still, we're not quite there yet. LOSS.
Can we limit these to once a month? Or once a week at the most?
We need a more analytical post for me to like this. Michigan won't beat Ohio State because you can't pick against them.
WMU should be easier than people think. They lost 2 in their secondary to the NFL (although 1 is being replaced by a Miami, yes, that Miami transfer), are starting 3 underclassmen on their DL, lost their 2 top receivers and a great TE in Ledbetter. They return only 4 starters on D, which should be a good thing for Forcier and the OL to get started. I think we are able to hang a lot of points and if the D holds, it should be done by half.
Michigan 38 WMU 17.
And another excellent diary gets bumped back to the second, third page. Thank heaven we have these W/L prediction posts instead of in-depth researched posts such as the one Brian was lauding earlier today.
About Notre Dame: We just lost our defensive line. That was the ace in the hole we need against them. Without good pressure on the QB, we will get eaten alive by Jimmah, who is actually a pretty solid QB when he's not getting teabagged by our defense. Brandon Graham, for all his awesomeness, didn't sack him last year, and it's not likely to happen this year.
We need our mysterious QB to show up ready to be a true dual-threat in order to win. McGuffie/Threet did well last year; if we can improve on that and cut down on the fumbles, it can be a high-scoring win. If we can't break 28, we are dead in the water.
An exception would if Donovan Warren/BoBo are utilized to their full potential and annihilate their receivers. Then we have a legitimate chance. I still doubt that's likely as of yet.
is effective, ND won't be stacking nine blockers on the line like they did in last year's game. I see Brandon Graham green teabagging Jimmah at least twice in this game. And it'll be sweet redemption for Stevie Brown to get loose in ND's backfield. ND is a winnable game this season. House 'em by halftime.
this time there is a little more meat to chew on as the Media Days are here and the media is making their predictions, so here goes in the style of the OP:
Western Michigan- 23
It will be a rough start, but Minor Rage pulls this out.
Notre Dame- 21
Less TOs and less 3-outs and a couple of sacks and we win this. Remember, Syracuse beat them last year. Who was the ‘Cuse’s HC…GERG.
Eastern Michigan- 7
Ron English, first game in the Big House and it’s EMU, ‘nuff said.
We might be a little sloppy, but IU has almost nothing.
Michigan State- 27
Overconfidence will be little brother’s undoing here. Remember, they thought they had arrived when tosu came in and sparty was down 28-0 in the 1st qtr.
Night game, national TV, defense really starting to put it together and Shonne Green is gone. Tate in command and Denard getting into the act, a great 1-2 combo and we eek out a victory. Even Mark May is starting to believe.
Delaware State- 6
Dullest game of the season, but good chance for the defense to work on some different packages and test some younger players.
Penn State- 31
Unfortunately PSU is the best team in the conference and proves it. Just when we thought we had the magic back, Nitany rminds us that we’re not there yet.
Juice is still Juice and the D is still young.
No experimenting with crazy schemes this time. Blue shows the Boilers that last year was a fluke and it won’t happen again.
Playing at Camp-Randall is the only advantage Wisco will have. They still don’t have a QB and we do.
9-2 going into The Game.
THE GAME is sacred and not to be trifled with or speculated upon, especially in July, but I will tell you this, Pryor will NOT be the the B10 Offensive Player of the year!
auto play each Michigan game on NCAA 2010 and see what happens.
why so many people see a win vs MSU on the road but a loss to Penn State at home. I think this is reversed. Our main issue this year is inexperience. And inexperience tends to get exposed in hostile environments. Granted, MSU lost Ringer and Hoyer but PSU lost their WR's and much of their secondary. MSU is the first road game, MSU's defense will be solid and I just envision turnovers galore there. I would call MSU a loss and PSU a toss-up. Contain PSU's running game and count that as a win for UM.
Last year, I would say we probably lost 2-3 games because of fumbles.
We also lost 9 games because we didn't have a QB who could either move, anywhere, or throw the ball within 5 yards of the intended target on a regular basis.
Will the fumbles be as bad? God, I hope not.
Can Forcier deliver the ball to a wide open statue? If so, he'll be better than threet and sheridan were most of the year.
That's not even taking into account the disaster that the OL was for the first half dozen games of the year last year.
This year the D won't be on the field for 40 minutes a game, either. (hopefully)
Based on nothing at all, I say we improve to atleast 7-5. But I think we lose to Illinois, osu, PSU, and Iowa. msu is a toss-up.
Just get me to a bowl man! C'mon! It really sucks being near Pakistan and not being able to listen to the BIG BLUE playing in a bowl game. I had to settle for hawaii/nd.
I can't help but feel good about this year. I know, I know, we don't have proven talent coming back in droves. Even so, in Minor I trust.
WMU - They lost too many good players to compete with us. W
Notre Dame - Charlie Weiss...lol. W
EMU - Respects to Ron English, but they haven't a chance. W
Indiana - They will once again be an easy win. Where were they last year when we needed them?! W
MSU - Without Ringer, the Spartans wouldn't have had a chance last year. Without Ringer AND Hoyer, I don't care how talented their defense is, they need points to win. Close, but we got this one.W
Iowa - Why is everyone talking about Stanzi like he's the next coming of Tom Brady? Shon Greene was the only reason they competed last year - and he's gone. I have not drunk the cool-aid, it just makes sense. W
HALFWAY THROUGH AND UNDEFEATED? IT'S POSSIBLE!
Delaware State - The doppelganger game won't be close, they've lost almost everyone. W
PSU - I can see us pulling the upset if we play AMAZINGLY, but I think we fall to PSU again. Unfortunately. L
Illinois - Geez. Juice, Benn, and Dufresne again? L
Purdue - Should be rolling by now, but two straight losses may make it close. Close one. W
Wisconsin - Who DIDN'T they lose? Confidence is back again. W
THE GAME - I won't predict just yet, but I see lots of holes in the Buckeye lineup. Pryor can't beat a team all by himself, though...can he?
That leaves either a 10-2 or 9-3 season, minus bowl season. Deja Vu, anyone? I can't decide whether I think it's because of Rich Rod or a weak Big Ten this year. Too bad we don't have Minnesota on the schedule instead of Illinois or PSU!