Irish cratering, Colonial showdown impacts UM and other Bubble News.

Submitted by jamiemac on
Before moving on to some of tonight’s action, a few words need to be said about what transpired last night as it impacts the hunt for NCAA Tournament bids. Oklahoma went into Stillwater and topped the Cowboys, 89-81. I predicted a 20/20 for Blake Griffin, but he fell short by scoring 26 points and “only” grabbing 19 boards. Meanwhile for the Pokes, this is the third game in league play that OSU has lost despite scoring more than 80 points. Expect their defense to continue to fail them as they try to establish their resume. Oklahoma State was in the same boat as Michigan in ESPN’s latest field projection—a 12 seed and among the last few put in the field—so a loss and missing out on a chance for a good looking resume win is good news for Michigan fans. Perhaps, more compelling, though is the news coming out of South Bend. After winning 45 straight at home, the Irish lost last night to Marquette for their second home loss in a span of 48 hours. Folks, the Irish are in trouble. They’ve lost four games in a row, and five of their last seven. They’re in 11th place in the Big East with a 3-5 record. Their RPI is all the way down at 73, and that’s before last night’s loss is factored in. To compare, Michigan is 44th in the latest RPI. The Irish have a worse RPI rating than teams like Providence, St. Joe’s, Buffalo, Stephen F. Austin and Penn State. None of those teams are getting any consideration for an at large bid right now, so why should the Irish? What helps is they play in the uber tough Big East. I heard the hoops guru on Rivals Radio this afternoon claim that a Big East team could go 8-10 and still make the field. Perhaps, but the downturn by the Irish bears continued watching. Check out ND’s next stretch of games: at Pitt, at Cincy, at UCLA, Louisville, USF, at WVA and at Providence. They also still have a road date at Uconn. With three straight road games beginning Saturday, if the Irish’s losing streak continues through that road trip (and it will if Kyle Mcalrney doesn’t break out of his shooting slump), they will be 12-10 overall, 3-7 in the Big East. The league is bucking for a record amount of bids, but you have to wonder if a 17-13 team with a losing league mark would net an invite. Before last night's loss, the latest projections had the Irish as a #10 seed. Here’s hoping the Irish keep losing. So, Oklahoma St may have played itself out of the field, while Notre Dame has devolved and played itself onto the Bubble. What will tonight’s action bring? Purdue at Wisconsin. Line Wisco -1 A lot has changed since Wisconsin and Purdue knocked heads earlier this month. For example, somebody kidnapped Badger Coach Bo Ryan. The Boilers have rebounded from an 0-2 start in league play. If they can nab another road win tonight, they could find themselves in the driver's seat for league honors. The Badgers, not so much. Losers of four in a row, Wisconsin needs this win. One Badger observed has called it the most important game in years for the program. While I won’t go that far, one has to wonder about the Badgers future resume if they don’t right the ship. As of now, road wins against Virginia Tech and Michigan are the best they have to offer. If the Badgers can't put together a winning record in conference play, that resume won’t do the trick. Heading into the night, Wisconsin is just an 11-seed in the latest ESPN projections. This is a swing game with Big 10 title and NCAA bubble implications. I will go as far as saying it’s the most important game for Wisconsin this season to date. Odds makers have installed the Badgers as an unranked favorite over a ranked team. I find that system hard to pass up, so I might put a little coin on the Badgers. Boston College at Maryland. Line, Maryland -4 Neither team has an NCAA tournament resume despite the fact that each have nabbed an impressive win against a team currently in the top-10. Those wins have been washed away by bad losses. Doesn't the loser tonight get pushed so far back in the line that it would take a major run over the final month of the season just to be a legit bubble team? I think so. How in the world are the Terps going to respond after that curb stomping at the hands of Duke on Saturday? Fans are now expecting Maryland to miss the Big Dance for the fourth time in five seasons. The local press is looking fondly at 'could-have-been' Terps who are playing for other schools. Things dont look so good for Gary Williams right now and a home loss tonight will only ratchet up the pressure. Northeastern at VCU. Line, VCU -6.5 This is worth tuning in just to watch VCU's little guy Eric Maynor in action. What? You dont remember him? Maybe this will jog your memory. The kid has been one of my favorite players to watch for a couple of years. The game tonight is on EPSNU at 9 pm. More notably, first place in the Colonial is on the line as both teams come in sporting 8-1 records. The CAA had been a three team race, but both the Rams and Huskies have beaten George Mason in recent days, leaving these two tied for first. Its a classic case of VCU's offense vs Norhteastrn's defense. Michigan fans may remember Northeastern. The Wolverines clubbed them by 20 points in the second game of the season. Nobody put much thought in to it then, but that game is slowly, but surely, turning into a quality win for UM. Northeastern sits at #60 in the latest RPI projections. Much is made of a team's record vs the RPI's top 50, so a win tonight might push NE into that range. There's always talk af the CAA netting two bifds into the field, but a head to head win over NE could come in handy if there's debate about UM come Selection Sunday. A run to the CAA title for Northeastern will only boost UM's resume. Best case scenario for UM boosters would be a stirring and dominant run on behalf of Northeastern en route to the CAA regular season title. We all should be pulling for them tonight. Utah at BYU. Line, BYU -3 The Mountain West is an interesting league as it could get anywhere from 1 to 3 bids into the field. BYU and Utah are two clubs who hope to be in that mix. In Lunardi's latest field projections, BYU is a #12 seed and among the final four teams included. Utah, meanwhile, is among the first four teams cut from the field. The implications for the next round of mock brackets is pretty clear. For Utah, its not too early to call this a must win game. Color me skeptical about the Utes chances this evening. Utah was outclassed in road losses at SDSU and UNLV, and I expect the same to happen tonight. BYU is a short 3-point favorite and I'll roll with the Mormon Cagers tonight. Its a small slate of games tonight, but as you can see, there's plenty going on as it relates to the Bubble that Michigan will be sitting on all winter long. We'll be enjoying the games, but also likely wagering on Wisconsin, BYU and Baylor -1 over Texas.....like the Badger game, that one too is an unranked favorite over a ranked team.

Comments

MBAgoblue

January 27th, 2009 at 5:28 PM ^

My first thought on seeing this diary headline was "What the hell happened at Colonial Lanes?" Imagine my relief at seeing that no one was harmed during Moonlight Doubles. Good post. Slightly obsessive, but in a good way.

mad magician

January 27th, 2009 at 8:46 PM ^

Looking ahead, a win over either UConn on Feb. 7 (highly unlikely) or Michigan State at Crisler on the 10th (possible though far from probable) would put Michigan over the top as far as high profile wins. Presuming we drop those two games, we'd need to go 10-8 in conference to be safely in the field of 65; anything less and you're probably going to have to make some kind of run in the Big Ten tourney. Interesting to see Northeastern's RPI- good find

jamiemac

January 27th, 2009 at 9:44 PM ^

I will feel a lot stronger about UM's chances if they find a way to win in Columbus tomorrow. They wont have much margin of error from here on out if they cant get some wins this week. But lets assume road losses to OSU, PU, Uconn and a home win over PSU between now and the MSU game. That puts them 15-9, 5-6. That MSU game would be must win. UM will likely need to win that one and the rest of their home games, which include contests over Minny and Purdue. They also need to go into Northwestern and Iowa and find one win. Lets say they sweep those home games, split the roadies and lose at Minny and at Wisco. That puts them 19-12, 9-9....but with wins over Duke, UCLA, Illinois, Purdue, Michigan St....that will get them an at large bid as long as they dont totally suck in the league tourney and like lose to IU or Iowa in a 6 vs 11 or 7 vs 10 first round game. Easier said then done, but a road map to an at large still exists even if UM loses three of its next four games.

jamiemac

January 27th, 2009 at 10:04 PM ^

Thanks for reading and the kind words. I've been a March Madness and CBB addict my whole life. I just love the chase to get into the tourney field. The first three weeks of March are among my favorite sports days on the whole calendar. And, since I'm also a gambler, I spend a lot of time studying teams and their schedules. I'll keep these up for the rest of the season....we'll see how often I do this, though, as time management is not my strong suit and, well, there's that whole day job thing. My initial thought was a Diary on days UM plays highlighting the other games nationally that impacts the Wolverines place in the field and on the bubble. Then a combination of whats going on in the days between and/or recaps of the action. I'm winging it, basically. I also hope not to focus just on espn's mock bracket. Surprised more folks dont have mocks working yet.....Rivals will debut theirs tomorrow....i'll incorpate everybody's mock as they become more prevalent. We'll see how this evolves. I hope this creates some good reads and more importantly some quality college hoops talk.

jamiemac

January 27th, 2009 at 10:07 PM ^

Hate to keep commenting on my own diary, but I need to clarify something in the BYU/Utah part of the post. The game is actually at Utah tonight and its the Utes who were the short favorite. I really liked BYU at home with a number so low. It was too good to be true.....I don't trust Utah and am not playing the game, but am interested still in the outcome. For gaming purposes, I only took wisco and baylor, both at -1.