The Iowa Conundrum

Submitted by Meeechigan Dan on

The Barking Sphincter has just given voice in his post below to a real, though irrational, voice in all our heads. It is wholly irrational because it draws premature conclusions. It is akin to him noticing a blemish on his skin and fainting in horror because he’s sure it is melanoma. Or declaring a pharmaceutical study with an n of 1 is definitive. His world is possible, yes, but not probable given the track record of the coach in question.

Yet he represents, like a monster-shaped shadow on the wall of our room when we were six, the gibbering irrational terror that Michigan football might not get better very soon. Various posters tried turning on the light to show the Sphincter that the shadow is just the three bags of circus peanuts he was saving for a special occasion, but he squeamishly delights in the thought that the monster is real. That’s his problem.

The evidence has been presented. But there is one additional piece of evidence that I want to offer, and it takes this form: Why is the current recruiting class predictive of peril (if you grant that the class finishes out as it has started)?

I have heard people talking about Penn State and Michigan State and Iowa all being much more fearsome than Michigan this upcoming year. But based on what level of talent? For example, the 2007 Penn State class averaged roughly 5.6 for a Rivals Rating. If Jones, Avery and Williamson (who have no RR now) among our current commits get rated around 5.3 or 5.4, then that will be (roughly) where this Michigan class is. Now, I don’t want to do a Sphincter move and use an n of 1; the previous Penn State class was better. But so was ours.

The point is, many, many teams have been, over the years, highly regarded with the kind of talent we’re bringing in now – old WVU teams, second tier SEC teams, teams like Boise State, Big 10 teams not named OSU and Michigan. You’ll slap me with scheme and GERG being new and freshman QBs…but that’s not my point. My point is simply that this level of talent predicts nothing about a decline or about any inability of Rodriguez to win in the future. .

Would all five stars be better? Of course. But this talent – particularly if it fits the scheme – does not predict bad things.

Let’s take Iowa and make my Title relevant. Iowa coaches, to paraphrase Robert Ludlum in the Matarese Circle, would kill their mothers in front of their priests for a class like we are assembling right now. Not one of their last five classes averages the star ratings that this class is averaging. None come close. And, even though Iowa lost Shonn Green and two OLineman to the NFL, they are routinely picked above Michigan with 8-4 and 9-3 being bandied about. Would you take their players above ours? Ferentz over RRod? I am not being naïve – I am aware of various mitigating factors – all I am suggesting is that this recruiting class predicts absolutely nothing at this point. It certainly does not predict, in my opinion, a weak season in three or four years from now when the meat of this class is on the field.

Comments

Meeechigan Dan

July 2nd, 2009 at 4:40 PM ^

BS, I don't think anyone is arguing that RR hasn't made mistakes. You cite a couple of them. The defense, not fully understanding Michigan tradition, handling of some players perhaps (although there is a lot of hearsay)...all while he had half of WVU marching on his extended family with the very pitchforks you're trying to sell.

But I think he has learned. In fact, if we assume that anyone coming into this situation would have been very challenged to manage everything that was going on, it is in year two that we are going to see the new coach emerge. I still have reservations about the GERG hire (but those are being allayed), but I am in a mode where I am allowing him to correct.

AC1997

July 2nd, 2009 at 5:03 PM ^

I've stood up for Carr more than anyone I know. I think he is on par with Bo as one of the best coaches ever. I just think he started to lose his fastball late in his career. He had a team loaded with NFL talent and lead them to the biggest upset in college football history. He also let guys like Boren, Mallett, Manningham, and Butler get away with more and was probably a bit too loyal to the old guard (S&C, offensive coordinators, etc.).

When he finally had nothing left to lose, you saw the results - he destroyed a good Florida team. That was perhaps one of the best played and coached games in his entire career.

Naturally, some guys left early when he retired and that set RR back. But where were the replacements? Where was the QB depth? Where were the blue-chip OL? Where were the LB? Carr didn't leave the program in ruins, but he didn't leave them set up for stardom.

Then RR came in and wasn't the best fit based on program and style. He compounded the problem with some bad decisions. I still think he should have realized he had a veteran defense and needed to gut the offense - then kept Ron English and another coach or two on that side of the ball, at least for a year. I think that would have helped the transition.

On offense, there wasn't much that could have been done with no QB, a crappy OL, no explosive WR, and a RB cast that was injury prone. So I don't have a problem with him blowing it up and implementing his scheme like Beilein did.

The Barking Sp…

July 3rd, 2009 at 1:06 PM ^

I agree with keeping Ron English--boy, is hindsight ever 20/20, though. I would LOVE to have seen English at UM under a "ballz to the wall" coach. One reason why I think that would have been a great move is that Rodriguez (IMOIMO) had no backup plan to Casteel, and he, admittedly, doesn't have much to do with the defensive side of the ball. English would have been PERFECT under those circumstances, as well as maybe Bedford to keep recruiting ties and some form of continuity there. I also think Erik Campbell should have been kept as receivers coach.

The counter-point to keeping English, though, is the old saying that "you never hire a guy who wanted your job"--and in this case, interviewed for it, and seemed a bit bitter, calling it something along the lines of an ersatz interview. Hell, the guys were on an extra year's pay--it sure wouldn't have hurt to keep those three anyway.

I can't say keeping English would have sent UM bowling, but I do believe he would not have been relieved after 2008 and thus the HC at EMU now.