What a first game at Michigan Stadium! A big thanks to Jamie Mac for the invitation to tailgate, it was great to meet up with a few MGoBloggers before the game. For your generosity I won’t gloat about being right about the PSU/NW game.
Michigan Rush: +12
Michigan Pass: +21
Illinois Rush: +13
Illinois Pass: +6
Illinois had a huge field position advantage on the day. Not counting the OT drives, Illinois’ field position would have yielded an average team against an average defense 40 points. Michigan allowed 45. Considering the low bar set by this unit, it was a heck of a job giving the offense a chance to win. The offense was only “expected” to score 28 based on field position. The turnovers and special teams put Michigan at a distinct disadvantage but the defense held enough in regulation to give the offense a chance and then came through with the one stop they needed at the end.
Denard had his worst rushing game of the season going –1 on the ground (with Illinois’s good rush d it will be positive after the opponent adjustment)
Vincent Smith +2
Michael Shaw +6, that’s what happens when a third of your carries are touchdowns
For Illinois, Scheelhaasse, Leshoure and Ford were all +5
A lot of big numbers all around. Michigan’s total offensive game was the second best opponent adjusted offensive performance for the entire season.
Seven is still the most likely outcome but with the win on Saturday the prospects have improved from 6-7 to 7-8.
@ Purdue: 65%
@ Ohio St: 15%
Continuing with last week’s method of ranking by losses first, then season PAN, then any adjustment for head to head games.
Oregon continues to be rated lower by my numbers due mostly to the cat and mouse nature of a lot of their games. I don’t count plays after the spread is larger than 2 TD’s in the second half and Oregon has played several games, like last weekend vs Washington, where the game has stayed closer than it should into the second half and the blows the door off to close out the game.
Other teams that seem out of place are Nevada which is only ranked highly because of my methodology. They are 50th in the country in PAN behind Michigan at #46.